Subscription service is too compatible with drama series - Forecast for the 2020s

Recently, there is something that is addicted, but it is "MANDALORIAN" of the first live-action drama series of STAR WARS.

The Mandalorian

When Westerners think of STAR WARS every other word is either FORCE or LIGHTSABER, but this drama is a spin-off, and they almost never come out. It is a hard boiled work like a western play in the world of STAR WARS. The key point is that the details of the world are thoroughly STAR WARS.

On Twitter, the storm of fans' acclaim is blowing, and I also recommend it. 

THEME

This time, we will discuss the relationship between subscription services and video content.

Subscription service, which is now a start for automakers and has a fairly broad definition, but here refers to membership-based video distribution services such as Amazon and Netflix.

It is a story about what happens to video content under such an environment.

The bottom line is that video content will become more interesting.

Anyone can say that, to put it a little more, movies are going away and core content in the industry is going to be drama.

WHY A DRAMA, NOT A MOVIE?

Looking back on my memory as to why I am worried about this in the first place, there were Netflix's original drama "HOUSE OF CARDS"(2013-2018) and Amazon's original drama "THE MAN IN THE HIGH CASTLE "(2015 ~).

Especially, "Man of the High Castle" is a work I was looking forward to very much from the stage of production announcement because I had read the original book of Philip K. Dick, but the "Related" of Amazon "Exclusive" "Distribution" "Drama", I was surprised at the information..." Isn't it a movie? Can't you watch it without Amazon? ".

▲ You can see "ORIGINAL".

You can watch it if you become a member. ▼

Those who want to watch will register. There are also movies, dramas and documentaries being distributed. With attractive content at the entrance, you pay a monthly fee.

But what if the content that attracted me was a single movie?

I think that there are many people who check only one thing they want to watch and immediately cancel if they have achieved their purpose. (I will do it)

However, many of the serial dramas are “updated every day of the week”, and many stories continue. The only way to watch is to stay a member. If you notice over the month, you will follow the series for a few months.

I think the essence of the monthly fee lies in the commercialization of time packages.

The recipient does not buy the right to watch the work alone, but rather a time set by the service provider. This is the decisive difference from the traditional movie industry.

The equation that the longer a user is locked in, the more profitable it was, was completed in the 2010s due to the demonic compatibility of subscription and drama series. 

I spend more time online than on TV. It is inevitable that the industry will change. In addition to the Amazon and Netflix mentioned above, various services are born and are competing for sphere of influence.

Existing movie companies will also move. Disney, mentioned at the beginning, also started Disney + in 2019 and has announced the production of several original dramas (the first one is "MANDALORIAN").

Think from business model

Movies are an unstable business model.

Whether a movie hits is a bet. Even if it hits, the movie will only be sold during the release period. Related products will sell at best during that period.

In the past, TOHO, Japanese production company, faced the worries with the "GODZILLA" series. Because it takes a year to make a movie, at least half a year. However, in 1966, Tsuburaya's "ULTRAMAN" aired on television evry week. Monster-king couldn't beat the aliens who show up as heroes every week, and their popularity, topics, and toy shelves were taken away.

A company with a lot of original rights and a stable management base like Disney can keep making films, but there are not many such companies. Even Disney started a subscription service and started working on the original drama series.

Compared to movies, the subscription service, in which the monthly fee is included as sales as long as the user is a member, can be said to be a more stable business model.

The 2010s were a major turning point in the industry.

And the USER-FIRST environment was completed

In the future, the movie industry has almost been able to use the monthly membership fee as a stable revenue base. It feels like the atmosphere of the story is getting darker, but what matters is what kind of work comes out of this environment.

As long as there are members, there is income, but conversely, depending on the content, there is also a sufficient risk that users will cancel and switch to other services. Simply put, if you make something boring, users will leave.

Oh, isn't the movie the same?

That's true. However, a movie is content that is evaluated on its own. Even without a hit, there is a next. In addition, although it is a unique phenomenon of the movie industry, box office revenue can be controlled to some extent by the size, number, and quality of the theaters that are shown. Due to the push of distribution, popularity and sales are not always proportional. There is a mechanism to hit even boring things.

Subscriptions, on the other hand, are not businesses that make money on their own, so failure of a work can lead to service failure.

You have to keep making interesting works and buy distribution rights for popular works. It may be harsh for the service provider ... Isn't this the best situation for users to keep watching interesting content?

I think the MANDALORIAN mentioned at the beginning may be a work created by the situation described so far. And that's why we can expect it. (Because I registered for Disney Deluxe for MANDALORIAN, I will cancel if I make bad things)

Just as my favorite Star Wars is transforming and entertaining, there may be unexpected reunions with past popular works and your favorite works in the future.