フィッチ（Fitch）の見通しによれば、米国不動産ローンの延滞率は来年以降倍増

はまぎく

空室の続く全米のCREは、今後も厳しい見通しであるとフィッチは述べているようだ。

US Commercial Real Estate Deterioration to Increase in 2024, Led by Office


記事曰く（以下引用）

"  For U.S. CMBS, we expect the greatest decline in property net cash flows from office and non-trophy malls as growing macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates lead to increased maturity defaults. Fitch forecasts overall U.S. CMBS loan delinquencies to double from 2.25% in November 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.

The U.S. CMBS office delinquency rate rose 64 bps in November, the largest increase since June 2020, to 3.48%. The majority of the $1.59 billion in new U.S. CMBS 60+ day loan delinquency volume in November comprised office and multifamily. Fitch forecasts U.S. CMBS office loan delinquencies to jump to 8.1% in 2024 and 9.9% in 2025 "


ということで、米国の商業用不動産（CRE）のローン延滞率は倍増するであろうと。

現況2.25％から、24年には4.5％、25年は更に増加し4.9％との事。


従前からの推測通り、CREの貸出残高の多い中小規模の地域銀行は、苦境に陥るであろうことが推測される。









こういう見解もある（以下引用）

”　That wisdom now sounds shaky. It's an eerie moment for commercial real estate, which has been rattled before but never so fundamentally. New York's office vacancy rate has surged more than 70% since 2019; there's some 96 million square feet of office real estate available for lease in the city. Delinquency rates for office loans across the US are at a pandemic-era peak of nearly 5%. He is staying confident, for the time being, partly by pinning hopes on a broader return to the office.　”


苦しみの結果が出るのは、これからだ。


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