【 原文 】
1st January 2025 - 02:55
iceman.
Joined: July 2018
Location: Bangalore
Re: South Korean Jet carrying 181 people crashes at airport
I read through some comments in the thread, thought of responding in one go.
Most plausible SOE (Sequence of Events) that most of us can speculate at the moment
Aircraft was on final approach heading northbound (RWY 01) when it encountered a flock of birds, resulting in a bird strike that disabled engine #2.
- Pilots initiated a go-around with reduced thrust due to engine failure - given the situation, this was likely the most appropriate option. Eyewitnesses reporting visible struggle during the climb.
- A decision was made to reverse direction and attempt an immediate southbound landing, suggesting the aircraft's performance was deteriorating.
- However - and this is very important - The tight turn executed with single engine during the go-around indicated that control surfaces, including hydraulics, were operational. Take a look at the approach chart below to see the executed turn.
- As the aircraft neared touchdown, the crew realized the landing gear had not been deployed. [*1]
- Pilots increased engine power in an attempt to abort the landing, possibly retracting other control surfaces to reduce drag. [*2]
- The remaining engine’s limited thrust, combined with the short reaction window, prevented the aircraft from regaining sufficient altitude.
- The aircraft impacted the runway with landing gear retracted, sliding down the surface at increased speed due to the thrust applied moments earlier.
Now there are two major questions with the above SOE (highlighted as bold *1 and *2).
1. There will be a very audible gear down warning if aircraft is configured dirty and LG is not engaged and locked. However, we have had numerous incidents earlier where warnings are missed due to stress in the cockpit, the most famous being the "Stall" warning in the AF447 case. That cockpit was blaring the stall warning the entire descent and yet overlooked.
2. The other issue is that for a 738, the SOP is flaps 15 for a missed approach, not full retraction.
What I will probably not accept is that the pilots forgot flaps, slats, speed brakes and also the landing gear - I mean those are literally the most important things you do to setup an aircraft for landing. At most, they forgot only the landing gear.
Fuel Remaining in wings at the time of landing
Please see below the simulated fuel planning for the flight - approx. total fuel would be 18,000 kgs - out of which 13,500 would have been used for trip + taxi.
The aircraft would still have 4,000 kgs (or 3,000 if a go-around was executed). This is enough to cause a fireball.