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2023 Aug 10, Market Wrapup

株式岸部

23/08/10 21:30 米国 失業保険継続受給者数 7月29日 ★★ 170.7 万人 168.4 万人 170.0 万人(169.2 万人)
23/08/10 21:30 米国 新規失業保険申請件数 8月5日 ★★★ 23.0 万件 24.8 万件 22.7 万件 
23/08/10 21:30 米国 消費者物価指数 (前月比) 7月 ★★★ +0.2 ％ +0.2 ％ +0.2 ％ 
23/08/10 21:30 米国 消費者物価指数 (前年比) 7月 ★ +3.3 ％ +3.2 ％ +3.0 ％ 
23/08/10 21:30 米国 消費者物価指数[コア] (前月比) 7月 ★★ +0.2 ％ +0.2 ％ +0.2 ％ 
23/08/10 21:30 米国 消費者物価指数[コア] (前年比) 7月 ★ +4.7 ％ +4.7 ％ +4.8 ％ 
23/08/10 23:30 米国 EIA天然ガス貯蔵量 (前週比) 8月4日 ★+23 bcf +29 bcf +14 bcf

  1. Top Upgrades:

    1. Roblox (RBLX): Morgan Stanley upgraded Roblox from Underweight to Equal Weight, with a price target raised to $30 from $26. Despite mixed Q2 results, the upgrade reflects that the stock now adequately accounts for short-term challenges arising from bookings deceleration.

    2. Global Payments (GPN): Jefferies upgraded Global Payments from Hold to Buy, with a price target increased to $145 from $125. The company's Q2 report showed positive merchant growth independent of Visa and Mastercard, leading to expectations of above-market growth throughout 2023.

    3. Southern Company (SO): Morgan Stanley upgraded Southern Company from Underweight to Equal Weight, setting a price target of $69 (up from $60). Reduced Vogtle construction risk contributes to a low-risk earnings outlook, strong regulatory relationships, and a solid balance sheet.

    4. Kornit Digital (KRNT): Morgan Stanley upgraded Kornit Digital from Equal Weight to Overweight, maintaining the price target at $29. The firm believes the recent share selloff was excessive and anticipates the company's upgrade pipeline to drive revenue growth and EBITDA profitability by 2024.

    5. Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX): Citi upgraded Mirati Therapeutics from Neutral to Buy, with a price target of $48 (lowered from $51). The decision to reinstate the former CEO and founder as interim CEO is seen as a prudent move by the firm.

  2. Top Downgrades:

    1. Penn Entertainment (PENN): Craig-Hallum downgraded Penn Entertainment from Buy to Hold, with a reduced price target of $30 (previously $56). The confusion over ending the Barstool relationship and uncertain success of media partnerships in sports betting influenced this decision. Truist also downgraded PENN to Hold with a target of $30 (down from $33).

    2. SBA Communications (SBAC) and Crown Castle (CCI): BofA downgraded both SBA Communications and Crown Castle from Buy to Neutral. This shift is attributed to factors like moderating domestic growth, interest rate challenges, elevated Sprint churn, and company-specific issues hindering AFFO per share growth.

    3. NeoGames (NGMS): Deutsche Bank downgraded NeoGames from Buy to Hold, maintaining the price target of $29.50. Mixed Q2 earnings and the extended timeline for the Aristocrat business combination contributed to this downgrade.

    4. TaskUs (TASK): RBC Capital downgraded TaskUs from Outperform to Sector Perform, setting a price target of $16 (down from $21). A reduced fiscal 2023 revenue guidance due to macro conditions was a key factor. JPMorgan also downgraded TaskUs to Neutral with a target of $12 (down from $16).

    5. Plug Power (PLUG): Roth MKM downgraded Plug Power from Buy to Neutral, with a price target of $7.50 (down from $13). Despite positive Q2 revenue, lower-than-expected gross margins and EBITDA influenced this downgrade.

  3. Top Initiations:

    1. Zai Lab (ZLAB): Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Zai Lab with an Overweight rating and a $70 price target. The firm anticipates under-appreciated peak sales potential for Zai Lab's products and pipeline, leading to upward earnings estimate revisions.

    2. CorMedix (CRMD): RBC Capital initiated coverage of CorMedix with an Outperform rating and a $6 price target. The firm sees CorMedix's antimicrobial asset, DefenCath, as valuable within the clinical environment and anti-infective practices.

    3. Option Care Health (OPCH): Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage of Option Care Health with a Buy rating and a $41 price target. The company's core business momentum, despite net headwinds, was a contributing factor for this positive outlook.

  1. News

    1. Disney (DIS): Reported positive Q3 results and plans to raise prices for certain Disney+ and Hulu tiers.

    2. Amazon (AMZN): Cutting in-house clothing and furniture offerings, according to WSJ.

    3. Berry Global (BERY): Considering options for its nonwoven fabrics unit, as reported by Bloomberg.

    4. Tech Companies: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance ordered $1B worth of A800 processors from Nvidia amid export concerns.

    5. McDonald's (MCD): Planning to sell new bonds to repay debt before upcoming maturities.

    6. Ford (F): Shares fell due to the disclosure of a vulnerability in its SYNC 3 infotainment system.

    7. GM (GM): Confirmed that the new Escalade IQ won't support Apple CarPlay or Android Auto.

  2. Earnings

    1. Alibaba (BABA): Posted better-than-expected Q1 results.

    2. Avid Technology (AVID): Announced upbeat Q2 results and agreed to be acquired by an STG affiliate for $1.4B.

    3. Holley (HLLY): Shares rose after reporting positive quarterly results and raising FY23 guidance.

    4. Blend Labs (BLND) and CleanSpark (CLSK): Stocks rose after reporting quarterly results.

    5. Magnite (MGNI): Moved higher following Q2 results and providing FY23 guidance.

    6. Wolverine World Wide (WWW) and SunOpta (STKL): Stocks dropped after reporting quarterly results.

    7. Trade Desk (TTD): Reported strong Q2 results and provided Q3 guidance, praised by Citi.

    8. Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Reported Q2 results, highlighted strength in North American and Macau operations.

    9. AppLovin (APP): Beat consensus expectations with Q2 results and provided guidance for Q3.

    10. Illumina (ILMN): Announced Q2 results and reduced its FY23 guidance.

    11. Six Flags (SIX): Q2 results missed consensus for revenue and EPS.

  3. M&A

    1. Tapestry (TPR): Agreed to acquire Capri Holdings (CPRI) for $57 per share in cash.

    2. Forward Air (FWRD) and Omni Logistics: Agreed to merge in a cash-and-stock deal.


  1. Core Inflation Improvements: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in July, aligning with market expectations. On a year-over-year basis, CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%, primarily due to unfavorable base-effects from a significant energy price decline in July 2022.

  2. Energy and Food Costs: Energy costs had a minimal impact on the July increase, with a slight 0.1% m/m rise. While gasoline prices increased (0.2% m/m), this was balanced by lower electricity costs (-0.7% m/m). Meanwhile, food prices rose by 0.2% m/m, with year-on-year growth slowing to 4.9%.

  3. Core Inflation (Excluding Food and Energy): Excluding food and energy, core inflation also rose by 0.2% m/m, matching the previous month's increase. The 12-month change in core inflation slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%.

  4. Services Price Growth: Prices for services saw a modest acceleration, growing by 0.4% m/m, slightly higher than June's 0.3% m/m increase. Year-on-year, service prices remained elevated at 6.1%.

  5. Shelter Costs: Inflationary pressure from shelter costs persisted, with substantial gains in owners' equivalent rent (0.5% m/m) and rent of primary residence (0.4% m/m).

  6. Non-Housing Services: Price growth in non-housing services rebounded by 0.1% m/m from a decline in June. Notable gains were seen in recreation services, education, and transportation. Airfare prices continued to decline significantly (8.1% m/m), matching the previous month's trend.

  7. Core Goods Prices: Core goods prices experienced a second consecutive month of decline (-0.3% m/m), with notable drops in transportation, education and communication goods, and recreational goods.

Key Implications:

  1. Positive Inflation Trends: The July CPI reading indicated progress towards achieving price stability. Core inflation remained at a low 0.2% m/m increase, similar to the previous month, resulting in a three-month annualized change of 3.1%. This marked the first 'three-handle' since September 2021. Notably, goods prices moved towards deflation, while non-housing service price growth slowed from last year's peak.

  2. Economic Outlook and FOMC: With inflation showing favorable trends and the labor market displaying early signs of cooling, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might find reassurance in stepping back and allowing previous tightening measures to take full effect on the economy. However, considering the expectation of core inflation remaining above 3% until Q1-2024, any potential rate cuts would likely be postponed.


  1. Stocks struggled to find direction amid bets that even if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates in September, policy will remain tight to avoid a spike in inflation. Treasuries fell following a poor 30-year bond auction.

    1. As Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly told Yahoo! Finance, the central bank still has more work to do, Walt Street's risk-on bid faded. She added that officials have yet to decide whether to raise rates and for how long. This is despite the fact that the core consumer price index experienced the smallest back-to-back increase in more than two years.

    2. The S&P 500 finished little changed after a 1% gain earlier in the day. Nvidia which has more than tripled this year, has extended a three-day losing streak. General Motors and Ford fell on growing concern that union leaders' demands would drive up labour costs at the automakers. Walt Disney rallied after reporting that capital spending and outlays for films and television shows are lower than expected.

    3. Treasury 30-year yields rose after the highest rate since 2011 was awarded in a $23 billion auction. Two-year yields, which are more sensitive to upcoming Fed moves, remained relatively unchanged. Losses were erased by the dollar. Oil's rally, fueled by signs of a tightening market, stalled near the year's highs as technical barriers stymied further gains.

  2. China is to pause plans to build new embassy in London - Sources.

  3. US 4-Week Bill Auction

    1. Bid-to-Cover ratio 2.62

    2. High rate 5.280%

    3. US sells $76 bln

    4. Awards 5.55% of bids at high

  4. US 30-Year Bond Auction

    1. Bid-to-cover 2.42

    2. High yield 4.189% vs 4.175% pre-sale when-issued yield

    3. Sells $23 bln

    4. Awards 10.05% of bids at high

    5. Primary dealers take 12.53%

    6. Direct 19.64%

    7. Indirect 67.83%


Europe & Asia

23/08/10 13:30 インド インド中銀　政策金利 8月10日 ★★ 6.50 ％ 6.50 ％ 6.50 ％ 
23/08/10 16:00 トルコ 失業率 6月 ★★ 9.6 ％ 9.5 ％ 
23/08/10 16:00 トルコ 鉱工業生産 (前月比) 6月 ★ -2.3 ％ +1.6 ％ +1.1 ％(+1.4 ％)
23/08/10 16:00 トルコ 鉱工業生産 (前年比) 6月 -3.0 ％ +0.6 ％ -0.2 ％(+0.2 ％)
23/08/10 10:00 オーストラリア 消費者インフレ期待 8月 ★ +4.9 ％ +5.2 ％

23/08/10 08:01 英国 RICS住宅価格 7月 ★★ -51 ％ -53 ％ -46 ％(-48 ％)
23/08/10 17:00 ユーロ圏 欧州中銀経済報告 8月 ★★  
23/08/10 17:00 イタリア 調和消費者物価指数 <確報> (前年比) 7月 ★★ +6.4 ％ +6.3 ％ +6.4 ％


日本

23/08/10 08:50 日本 国内企業物価指数 (前月比) 7月 +0.2 ％ +0.1 ％ -0.2 ％(-0.1 ％)
23/08/10 08:50 日本 国内企業物価指数 (前年比) 7月 ★★★ +3.5 ％ +3.6 ％ +4.1 ％(+4.3 ％)

・アサヒ<2502>シンガポールに調達子会社、グループで一元管理
・NXHD<9147>特積み事業を名鉄運輸に統合、名鉄と合意
・キヤノンMJ<8060>東京日産コンピュータにTOB、完全子会社化へ
・パナHD<6752>中国2社を提訴、セルラー通信の特許めぐり
・デンヨー<6517>水素混焼発電機を導入、日立・コマツと協力
・三菱重<7011>長崎拠点が始動、水素・バイオマス技術開発
・日本ガイシ<5333>リコーとの共同出資会社、仮想発電所で新興と連携
・四国電力<9507>サウジアラビアでガス火力発電事業に参画
・住友ベークライト<4203>医薬品包装フィルムで持続可能性認証を取得
・GEI<9212>日本製紙などと、SAF生産パイロット事業者に選定
・ENEOS<5020>バイオ由来のPET原料生産、サントリーなどと供給網

<2767> 円谷フィHD: 第1四半期決算を発表し、営業利益が前年同期比で10.9倍の増加となったものの、株価は1年間で6倍近く上昇しており、業績の期待が既に反映されているようで、サプライズが限定的であるとされています。

  • <5202> 板硝子: 第1四半期決算が好業績で、上半期計画や通期計画を上方修正し、建築用ガラス事業の売上拡大や自動車用ガラス事業の収益改善が牽引役となっています。

  • <3431> 宮地エンジ: 第1四半期決算が順調で、営業益が大幅に増加し、資本コストや株価を意識した経営の一環として株式分割実施や実質増配を発表しています。

  • <2502> アサヒ: 上半期決算が好調で、営業利益が増加し、通期予想も上方修正されています。日本における酒類事業の進捗が良好とされています。

  • <6273> SMC: 第1四半期の決算は市場予想線上で着地しましたが、販売数量減や原材料高の影響で減少しました。通期計画には下振れの懸念もあるものの、他のFA関連企業と比較して底堅いと評価されています。

  • <4901> 富士フイルム: 第1四半期決算は市場予想並みで、バイオCDMO/ライフサイエンスに関する評価減計上もありましたが、業績悪化の懸念が緩和され、通期予想も据え置きとなっています。

  • <6758> ソニーG: 第1四半期決算はコンセンサス水準を上回りましたが、I&SS事業の下方修正やPS5販売台数の下振れなどがマイナス視されています。

  • <7267> ホンダ: 第1四半期決算が市場予想を大幅に上回り、二輪事業と四輪事業の収益が増加しています。通期予想は据え置かれています。

  • <7733> オリンパス: 第1四半期決算が市場コンセンサスを大幅に下振れし、内視鏡や治療機器の売上不振や先行投資の費用が影響しています。

  • <1605> INPEX: 上半期決算が通期予想を上振れし、為替前提の見直しや自己株式の取得などが発表されました。


日経平均株価は前週において、280円（0.9%）上昇し、底堅い動きを見せました。しかし、11日は「山の日」で休場だったため、8月第2週は4日間の立会い日となりました。第1四半期（4〜6月）の決算発表シーズンはほぼ終了しました。

  • 第1四半期決算に関しては、全体的には底堅い内容であったが、一部セクターでは伸び悩むところもありました。ほぼ6割の企業が業績予想を上回った可能性がありますが、その中身はまちまちです。

  • 内需系の好業績セクターとして、百貨店やインバウンド関連が挙げられます。中国の団体旅行解禁により、百貨店を含むインバウンド関連企業の業績拡大が期待されています。

  • 一方で、ハイテク系の一部企業では伸び悩みが見受けられました。アドバンテストやソニーグループなどが大幅な減益を発表し、株価が下落しました。一方で、半導体不足が解消したトヨタ自動車やホンダは好決算を発表しました。

  • 現在の相場では、ハイテク株などの成長株よりもバリュー株が優位となっており、TOPICは日経平均をアウトパフォームしています。来週以降も、決算発表が一巡する中で内需株が相場を牽引する展開が予想されています。

  • また、全体相場が動き出すのは、今月下旬の米ジャクソンホール会議でのパウエル米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）議長の講演を待つ必要がありそうです。その発言内容が市場に影響を与える可能性があります。




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