インターネット調査室： 「COLUMN-Beware yen, global market ructions if Japan tweaks 'YCC': McGeever」 ＜ー 別に驚くことではないのでは?
今回は「COLUMN-Beware yen, global market ructions if Japan tweaks 'YCC': McGeever」についてコメントさせていただきます。
Reuters: 21 Oct,2022
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
「COLUMN-Beware yen, global market ructions if Japan tweaks 'YCC': McGeever」: そうなんですかねぇ～?
The yen's daily slide to new multi-decade lows against the dollar and the global bond market rout are pushing the Bank of Japan's 'yield curve control' (YCC) close to breaking point.
その割には、日銀も騒いではいません。
The BOJ is the sole G10 monetary authority not to tighten policy this year. Its ultra-loose stance has accelerated Japanese investment flows abroad, helping to turn the yen's slump into one of historic proportions.
酷い書かれ方の反面、その通りですが、それは意図的です。
the difference between the stock of assets it holds overseas and stock of Japanese assets held by foreigners, was $3.29 trillion at the end of June.
これじゃ、株価も回復しないでしょうね。この状態では、外資も持っている理由がないでしょう。
International Monetary Fund figures show that of Japan's $9.96 trillion assets overseas
これだけ海外資産があると本当は儲っている勢力もかなり多いと思われます。
Even if only a fraction of that is repatriated, the positive impact on the yen could be huge - with Japanese investor repatriation historically an outsize exchange rate mover.
だわね～。
Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin says a YCC change could have spillover effects that could last for a few weeks.
"A sudden change to yield curve targeting could have substantial effects across asset classes. Could you have a bigger than 5 yen move? Absolutely. Does that create its own knock-on financial dislocations? I'm a bit more sanguine about that," he said.
今のところ、確かにBOJはそんな変更をしない、というよりできないでしょう。とんでもない逆流&もっと景気がわるくなりそいです。
Meanwhile, Japanese retail foreign currency deposits at domestic banks rose to 26.58 trillion yen ($182 billion) at the end of August, up 8.3% since the start of the year. That was the biggest January-August increase since 2015, BOJ data shows.
ここまで金額が積み上がるとどうしょうもないですね。
Daragh Maher, HSBC's U.S. head of FX strategy, reckons the dollar is close to a high and will fall to 140.00 yen early next year.
どこかで、反動が来るのは明らかです。
Japan releases September inflation data on Friday, with the annual core rate expected to rise to a new eight-year high of 3.0%. That sounds tame but it was zero only a year ago, and anything over 3.4% will be the highest since 1982.
BOJ的には、どこまで期待しているのか興味深いです。
ただ、為替についてはやはり米国の影響が大きくFRBの判断次第だと思いますけどね～
それはFFレートの予測で見えるかも?
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