The Zero-Risk People

There are moments when we are confronted with seemingly trivial dilemmas.

Consider, for instance, the hesitation one feels when deciding whether to carry an umbrella upon venturing out. The sky looms ominously, yet the inconvenience of an umbrella seems burdensome. Inevitably, one might find themselves ensnared in a sudden downpour, lamenting their decision while seeking refuge. Such an experience is universally relatable.

Humankind instinctively endeavors to circumvent risks. While being caught in a shower may not be catastrophic, it is certainly preferable to avoid such an inconvenience.

Risk, in its essence, is an “estimate of detriment,” calculated as the product of hazard and its probability of occurrence. Since it is a product, no matter how severe the hazard, if the probability is nearly zero, the risk becomes negligible. Hazards are intrinsic to all elements of nature and are difficult to alter externally. However, the probability of occurrence can be managed through preventive measures and isolation.

Imagine, if you will, a famished tiger before you. The peril it poses is immense. Yet, if the tiger is confined within a sturdy cage and securely chained, the probability of it causing harm is virtually zero. Thus, you can observe the tiger without any threat to your life. The key lies in accurately understanding the hazard and its probability, and taking appropriate measures. This is known as “rational fear.”

Focusing solely on the hazard, such as “carcinogenic” or “catastrophic accident,” while ignoring the actual probability, leads to irrational fear. Although it is impossible to reduce the probability to absolute zero, just as the risk of being attacked by a caged and chained tiger is practically zero, understanding both the magnitude of the hazard and its probability allows us to avoid unnecessary worries. While it might be possible to reduce either the hazard or its probability to zero through some means, the relentless pursuit of zero risk only breeds unnecessary anxiety and wastes resources and time.

Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” states, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” In modern society, this wisdom remains fundamental to risk management. Accurately understanding the nature of the risk is the first step towards realistic and reliable safety measures, bringing true peace of mind.

Greetings, I am Kuzei Ryosei, a novelist who delves into a diverse array of genres, spanning from the historical to the contemporary. My aim is to enchant readers with tales that breathe life into history and explore the intricate issues of modern society. I warmly invite you to reach out to me.