Can Biden win in the midterm election?
How I broaden Japanese students' views on America
I advocate a simplified case study for Japanese students to develop a capability to read today’s American society.
The contents include:
1. Case question: Any topic concerning today’s American
2. Relevant facts and data: Class assignment
3. Conclusion: Yes or No
The logic: The point lies in letting them to do research work in 2 and think about the essence of it so that they end up coming to the right answer for 1.
Japanese students are expected to know the fact and deepen the analysis by doing the research work and analysis of the essence of the facts.
Let me be more specific by doing the followings.
(reference: The Wall Street Journal on line dated Feb. 22, 2022 Title: Why This Economic Boom Can’t Lift America’s Spirits
1. Case question: Can Biden win in the coming mid-term election?
2. Relevant facts and data
① Biden’s approval rate dropped sharply
Facts and data: His approval rating is down sharply—to 41.7% as of last Wednesday versus 52.7% last summer
Substantial analysis: People honestly react to inflation or price-hike.
② Unprecedentedly brisk economy
Facts and data: Workers are commanding solid wage gains. Booming home and stock-market values have lifted household wealth to records.
Substantial analysis: People are very likely feel the reality not economic figures. Biden would be less liked if they suffer with the reality.
③ Rising inflation
Facts and data: Inflation hit 7.5% eating up those wage gains for many Americans.
Substantial analysis: Brisk economic date is misleading in that wage gains are being eaten up by price hikes.
④ Disillusion
Facts and data: the Fed was projecting inflation would only reach between 2% and 3% for 2021. When prices rose quickly in the summer. Americans are in the mood of disillusion
Substantial analysis: Unless Biden reduces inflation rate by autumn , he would lessen approval rate further
⑤ Price hike
Facts and data: “Four months ago I could buy a dozen eggs for 88 cents. Now I go there—$1.60. They’ve almost doubled in four months.”
Substantial analysis: Plus, supply chain is being choked off raising prices
⑥ Supply chain in disfunction
Facts and data: Before the pandemic, store shelves were typically 95% full, according to Information Resources Inc., a data-analytics firm that tracks supplies at retail. In the week ended Feb. 13, shelves were 89% full.
Substantial analysis: The supply chain not running smoothly due to labor shortage and picking up demands. No improvement in sight for another year or two.
⑦ Omicron to stay
Facts and data: A January poll from Monmouth University found 7 in 10 Americans agreeing with the statement “It’s time we accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives.”
Substantial analysis: Nobody knows what virus have to do next
⑧ Oil prices start to jump
Facts and data: Russia’s invasion to Ukraine let the oil price explode.
Substantial analysis: The price surge of oil damages most likely lead to price hike of almost anything.
⑨ Gloomy Americans
Facts and data: Americans who say they are “not too happy” outnumber those who say they’re “very happy,” according to a survey from the nonprofit group NORC at the University of Chicago.
Substantial analysis: Unless Biden gets honors by solving the Russia aggression issue, he would stay unpopular or even worse.
3. Conclusion: Yes or No
Conclusion is No. No chance for Biden to win in the midterm election.
I look forward to seeing you again soon.
Ichiro