The LDP Presidential Election is a Tight Race: The Four Candidates Have "Obvious Weaknesses".
(Japanese original version is posted to Diamond Online on September 21, 2021)
Masato Kamikubo,
Professor of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University
Abstract
The LDP presidential election has resulted in a large number of candidates vying for the presidency. Will we see a "pseudo-regime change" as in the past? Will the LDP regain its diversity, flexibility, and vitality, and will "one-party rule" continue? Or will we see a continuation of the "elder statesman's power" and the continued decline of the LDP, leading to a "democracy with regime change" in which the LDP competes with the opposition parties for power (Article No. 284)?
Kishida's Continued Failures Make Us Nervous.
Kishida Fumio is considered the most likely candidate to be the next president. However, he has always had a poor strategy. Prior to the election, Kishida made clear his confrontational stance against Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide and Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro by proposing a party reform plan that would limit the terms of office of party officials, excluding the president, to one year and no more than three consecutive terms. This was an uncharacteristically aggressive stance, but when Nikai easily announced his resignation as secretary general, Kishida had no place to put down his raised fist.
In addition, Suga announced that he would not run for the presidency, thus destroying the "Suga vs Kishida" rivalry that Kishida had drawn. Then, Kono Taro, Takaichi Sanae, and Noda Seiko announced their candidacies one after another. Kishida must fundamentally rethink his strategy for the presidential election.
Kishida was betrayed by former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in the past presidential elections when he expected him to "zenjyou" (hand over the prime minister's seat) (Article No. 252). His naiveté has not changed.
This time, he was unusually strong at first, then he became cowardly, stating, "I did not say that I would order a review of the Moritomo Gakuen issue. It is not clear whether he is going to carry out reforms of the party or whether he is going to become a member of the ruling elder generation. My impression is that he is confused and not prepared for the rapid changes in the situation.
There are also concerns about his ability to implement policies. Kishida is a veteran with extensive experience as a cabinet minister and party official, but last April, he caused confusion over economic measures for the covid-19. As chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, He worked with the Ministry of Finance to draw up a policy to provide 300,000 yen to households with declining incomes. This measure, however, was severely criticized. The system itself is difficult to understand. The self-assessment process is cumbersome. We don't even know when we will get it. It is also unclear whether those who really need the benefits will receive them or not.
In the end, Prime Minister Abe changed his policy to provide 100,000 yen per capita. Kishida's reputation was completely ruined, and he was severely criticized for his lack of competence as a "post-Abe" (Article No. 193, p. 2). This is said to be one of the reasons why Prime Minister Abe decided not to hand over the prime ministership to Kishida in the presidential election following his resignation.
Kishida worked with the bureaucrats to put together a solid set of policies, but he was too "earnest". His coordination skills are questionable. He is also too poor at "showing" his policies. I am worried that if he becomes prime minister, he will be confused in the face of various internal and external challenges.
Kono's Popularity is Well-founded, But He is not a "Breakthrough" Candidate.
Kono, who is seen as a possible opponent to Kishida, is the most popular candidate in the polls, He is known for his ability to communicate through social networking sites. He is rich in ideas and has a keen sense of social change. He has expressed ideas that are more in-depth than the LDP's policies, such as "denuclearization," "support for selective surname separation," and "acceptance of a female-line emperor. He has the rationality to think about how to sustain Japanese society without sticking to tradition.
Kono is also evaluated as having the "breakthrough power" to implement policies that many people would oppose, but I do not agree with that. I disagree. Rather, he lacks "breakthrough power.
In order to create policies, politicians have to get the cooperation of many bureaucrats and experts. A policy cannot be enacted into law unless a majority of the Diet votes for it. Therefore, politicians must persuade many members of the Diet to increase the number of supporters. The ability to break through is to persevere in such steady work.
Kono, however, is said to be a lone wolf in the political world and is tough on the bureaucracy. I can't think of any case where Kono has recruited his friends and worked with the bureaucracy to persistently tackle a difficult issue and finally achieve it.
What Kono did as minister in charge of administrative reform and regulatory reform was to set up a contact point called "Tatewari 110 ban," where the public can report specific cases of the harmful effects of "compartmentalized public administration," and to ban "hanko (stamp)" in principle in all ministries and agencies as a "useless administrative task" (Article No. 254).
These are important things, but I don't think they should be spearheaded by the minister. They can be done if the head of the department in the government office takes the lead. Also, using social networking sites to demonize the bureaucracy and certain industries in order to stir up public sentiment for reform is not the approach a politician aiming to become prime minister should take.
Kono is well aware of his own weaknesses. The fact that he has refrained from calling for a "denuclearization" and a "female-line emperor" is probably an attempt to avoid making unnecessary enemies within his party. Will Kono change? If he does, will he be a "true reformer" or a politician who follows his elders?
Kono has proposed administrative reforms such as "dismantlement of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare" and growth strategies such as building a 5G network. As an incumbent cabinet minister, he has shown that he has a good understanding of current policy issues, but the problem is his ability to implement them. I would like to see him show us what kind of process he will use to realize such a difficult task. I don't think he is going to say that he can do it if the people support him on social media.
Is Conservative Takaichi’s Ability to Survive in the Male Society Backfiring on Her?
Takaichi run for the presidency with the support of former Prime Minister Abe and emerged as a representative of the conservative movement with her opposition to “same-sex marriage”, “selective surname separation”, and “female-line emperor”.
However, I do not believe that Takaichi is a conservative at heart. Her conservative words and actions may be one way for her to survive and rise in the ranks as a woman in the male-dominated world of Japanese politics.
While Takaichi’s conservative stance is emphasized, she is rarely described as an experienced politician with strong practical skills. His tenure as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) is the longest in history. She is well versed in telecommunications policy, cyber security, and digitalization, and has led the huge MIC. One of the top priorities of Japanese politics is to deal with the lagging digitalization. Takaichi will be able to implement reforms more steadily than Kishida or Kono.
I would venture to say that the greatest potential for change in Japanese society is when Takaichi becomes prime minister. However, this does not mean that she will restore the old traditions that conservatives want.
If she becomes prime minister, Takaichi will not be a conservative, but a pragmatic policy-maker. Her administration will have to respond realistically to the changes in society and the people’s needs. Former Prime Minister Abe would be a good reference. Abe implemented social democratic policies such as "social advancement of women," "immigration policy," and "social security for all generations" (Article No. 218).
The birth of Japan's first female prime minister will have a tremendous impact on Japanese society. If a woman becomes the prime minister, women will be appointed one after another as the top executives of companies and bureaucratic organizations. Women’s participation in all aspects of Japanese society will dramatically increase.
Takaichi is currently considered to be in third place in the race for the presidency. She has been able to emerge as a representative of the conservative movement, but this has been a disadvantage and he is unlikely to reach the position of prime minister.
Noda's Appearance Makes the Race a Close One: Will the First Round of Voting Settle the Presidential Race?
Noda has sought to run for the presidency three times in the past, but this is the first time she has been able to secure 20 nominees. Like Takaichi, Noda has a lot of experiences as cabinet ministers and party executives, and has strong practical skills. she is a politician with a high level of insight on human rights issues, including women and minorities.
However, I have seen Noda struggle to secure nominees in every presidential election, and I have wondered how much effort she has made to increase her supporters on a daily basis. If she wants to become the prime minister, it is not enough for her to do all the work by herself. Also, if she asks the elders to make him prime minister, she will only become a puppet of the elders who say, "The lighter the palanquin you carry, the better" (Article No. 252).
The focal point of the presidential election is whether the Koishikawa coalition (Koizumi-Ishiwa-Kono coalition), which is very popular among the people, will overwhelmingly win the party supporters' votes and Kono will win the majority of votes in the first round of voting.
An example of a landslide victory in the first round of voting, winning overwhelmingly the party supporters’ vote, was Junichiro Koizumi's victory in the 2001 presidential election. Koizumi used the overwhelmingly powerful phrase "destroy the LDP" in the election campaign. He also had a policy that had a huge impact: the privatization of the postal servicess. He also had the strong support of Makiko Tanaka, who called Koizumi a "henjin (eccentric)”.
On the other hand, Kono does not have any policies with such a strong impact that anyone would think, "This might change Japan”. He has also lowered his views in deference to conservatives. His cheering squad of Shigeru Ishiba and Shinjiro Koizumi also lacks momentum. I don't think they will be able to create a boom like that of Junichiro Koizumi.
Also, before Koizumi's election, then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori made a series of gaffes, and the people strongly wanted Koizumi. However. Kono's opponent, Kishida, is a little unreliable, but he is moderate and stable.
Many LDP lawmakers believe that even if Kishida is not as popular with the public as Kono, he will be able to fight the general election without any problems. The "Kono boom" is not really needed.
In addition, Noda's candidacy has raised the possibility that party supporters' votes will be dispersed. Even so, Kono may have a good chance of coming in first in the first round of voting, but it will not be a landslide victory and will probably be close.
If it comes down to a runoff, Kishida will undoubtedly be in a better position. "In factional dynamics, Kishida's supporters are in the majority. The Kishida faction has 46 members in the Diet. Many of the 96 members of the Hosoda faction, whose "de facto owner" is former Prime Minister Abe, who supports Takaichi, are expected to support Kishida. In a runoff election, the first round of Hosoda faction votes for Takaichi will most likely go to Kishida.
If Mr. Kono wants to become prime minister, he should not be subservient to the conservatives. Rather, he should put his pet theory on the front burner. He must also come up with policies that will have a strong impact. He needs to think harder in order to create a "Kono boom" rather than simply being popular.