What Ideas Do We Need to Ensure the Stability of the Imperial Family? Learn from Britain, Where There are over 5,000 Heirs to the Throne.

(Japanese original version is posted to Diamond Online on December 28, 2021) 

Abstract

On 22 December, the government's expert panel, which is discussing how to ensure a stable succession to the throne, compiled its final report on measures to deal with the decline in the number of members of the Imperial Family. The report outlines two options: one is for female members of the Imperial Family to remain in the Imperial Family after marriage, and the other is for male members of the former Imperial Family to be adopted into the Imperial Family, but there are a number of practical difficulties. Therefore, I believe that we should also refer to the British Royal Family's thorough provision for maintenance. 

The maintenance of Japan's imperial lineage is precarious compared to other royal families around the world

Since March 2021, the government has held a series of expert meetings to discuss how to ensure a stable succession to the throne. The final report outlined two proposals for securing the number of members of the Imperial Family: a proposal for female members of the Imperial Family to remain in the Imperial Family after marriage, and a proposal for male members of the former Imperial Family to be adopted.

Currently, there are three heirs to the throne: Prince Fumihito Akishino, Prince Hisahito Akishino, the son of Prince Fumihito, and Prince Hitachi. However, Prince Hitachi is now 86 years old. There is no doubt that the preservation of the imperial line is in an extremely precarious situation.

It is paramount important for many royal families around the world to maintain a line of succession. Various methods of succession have been used. In comparison with other countries, the Japanese imperial line is in a precarious position.

The most notable example of a method of succession to the throne in other countries is that of the UK, which has adopted a method of maintaining the royal bloodline which is the exact opposite of that in Japan.

More than 5,000 people are entitled to the British throne! Even ordinary people in Germany...

The exact number of heirs to the British throne is not known. A number of scholars and others have investigated the matter, but as of 2011 there were 4,973 (Reitwiesner, W. A "Persons eligible to success to the British Throne as of 1 Jan 2001"). Later, Catholics, who were originally excluded from the royal family, were granted the right of succession to the throne, and some say there were 5753 (David Lewis "Persons eligible to success to the British Throne as of 1 Jan 2011 ").

The order of succession to the British throne is first in line of descent from the King　or Queen, regardless of gender, for those born on or after 28 October 2011 (firstborn to first offspring to second-born to second offspring).

In short, there is a "Queen" like Elizabeth II, and a "female line of succession", with the Queen's first child, Prince Charles, being first in line to the throne.

As "female lineal succession" is also possible, the marriages of descendants of British Kings and Queens to foreign royal families have resulted in some of these families being heirs to the British throne.

Examples include King Harald V of Norway, King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden, Queen Margrethe II of Denmark, Queen Anna Maria of Greece, King Constantine II of Greece, former Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands and King Willem-Alexander.

There are also former royal and noble families from Romania, Serbia, Russia, Georgia and Bulgaria who are holders of the British throne. However, the royal families of these countries are very distantly related to the present British Royal Family. It is unlikely that they will succeed to the British throne.

On the other hand, the heirs to the British throne include many people who live as ordinary people. Currently, the lowest-ranking person is a civilian woman from Germany.

The British Royal Family's thorough preparation for pandemics and nuclear war

When I lived in the UK, I saw a TV programme on the BBC about an old man who was the heir to the throne, living as a civilian in a small flat in a provincial town in the UK. I remember that the old man, who gave a tour of his modest home with a friendly smile, was invited once a year to a party hosted by Queen Elizabeth and happily showed a photo of himself in formal dress with the Queen.

The young heir to the throne, who is active in a variety of fields such as business and fashion, also appears frequently in the media.

Also, in the UK, there is no such thing as a 'Miyake (palace family)' as in Japan. It is only "individuals" who are recognised as heirs to the throne.

From the Royal Family's point of view, this means that there are about 5,000 heirs to the throne, but at no particular cost. In effect, there is no need to be particularly concerned, as the throne does not pass to anyone other than the Royal Family. Nor does it confer any privileges on the domestic heir to the throne.

On the other hand, if a pandemic of a highly virulent infectious disease were to kill a large number of people, or a nuclear war were to destroy the royal family, there would still be about 5,000 heirs to the throne, and they would be abroad. If someone survive, they can inherit the throne. It can be said that the British Royal Family is thoroughly prepared for its survival.

The expert panel's two proposals for the survival of the Imperial Family are problematic

In order to ensure the survival of the Imperial Family, I would like to suggest that the British system of recognising the successor to the Imperial Throne should be partly adopted, in addition to the "two proposals" of the expert panel: (1) female members of the Imperial Family should remain in the Imperial Family after marriage; and (2) male members of the former Imperial Family should be adopted (this will be discussed later).

This is because there are a number of practical problems in implementing the "two ideas".

First, let us consider the proposal that the female members of the Imperial Family remain in the family after marriage. The expert panel has pointed out that there is a possibility that the spouses of the Princesses may become influential and have power.

In particular, if the spouses of female members, who are ordinary citizens, are granted the status of members of the Imperial Family, marriage will be the only opportunity for ordinary people to become members of the Family. As a result, there is a concern that the marriage of female members of the Imperial Family will result in various disputes (Minutes of the 6th Experts' Meeting on the "Supplementary Resolution to the Bill for Special Exceptions to the Imperial Household Law Concerning the Abdication of the Emperor").

Next, I would like to talk about the proposal to "adopt a male member of the former imperial family as a member of the imperial family or to restore the former imperial family (Miyake) itself.

At present, it is difficult to determine exactly how many people are considered to be "male descendants of the former imperial family". Different experts have different views. Some experts believe that there are between seven and nine single male lineal descendants in four former Imperial families: the Kuni, Kayo, Higashikuni and Takeda families.

However, many of them are minors and the "human rights of the child" need to be taken into account. It is not possible to directly adopt only underage boys, and it is assumed by the expert committee that their fathers will be adopted.

However, it cannot be said that there is no human rights problem if the child joins the Imperial Family together with his parents. This would mean that the child would suddenly be forced to join the Imperial Family, regardless of his or her will, and that his or her human rights would be restricted.

Furthermore, there is the problem of "discrimination based on family origin". To make the male members of the former imperial family the new members of the Imperial Family is to create an exception to the principle of equality among the general public on the basis of "family origin" and to grant them the special status of "Imperial Family" on an ongoing basis.

In other words, it would create a "new aristocracy" from among ordinary people, which is constitutionally questionable (Minutes of the 4th Experts' Meeting on the "Supplementary Resolution to the Bill for Special Exceptions to the Imperial Household Law Concerning the Abdication of the Emperor.").

In short, in order to implement the two proposals of the expert panel, a number of problems have to be carefully considered and overcome. The biggest problem of all would be that the male members of the four former Imperial families who have male lineages themselves would not like these various problems and would refuse to join the Imperial Family.

What would be the Japanese Imperial Family if the British system was adopted?

I would like to consider the possibility of adapting some aspects of the British system of succession to the throne. That is to assume the tradition of male lineal succession, but to broaden the scope of those who are entitled to the throne.

It is worthwhile to go back in history as far as possible to find out how many male descendants of the Imperial family there actually are. In fact, there are probably descendants all over the country of warrior families and noble families such as the Kammu Heike, Seiwa Genji and Ashikaga, whose lineage originated with the emperor and whose genealogies are relatively clear.

The Imperial Household Agency then recognises the male members of the imperial line as having the right to the throne and informs them of their status. It will keep a record of this, but the record will be kept private and, in principle, will not be made public.

There will be no public support for "men with the right to the throne" and no new imperial family will be created. Only "individuals" with the right will be recognised.

However, in the event that the present Imperial Family is in danger of being cut off, or that there are not enough members of the Imperial Family to carry out official duties, an adoption will be agreed upon by the Imperial Family and the individual from among these "men with the right to succeed to the throne". He could also be a potential mate for a female member of the Imperial Family.

If the person who has the right to succeed to the throne is recognised as an "individual", the constitutional doubt of "discrimination based on family origin" can be overcome. This is because, for example, there are prestigious families and lineages without privilege such as the "Tokugawa" and "Hosokawa" families. There is no problem with adoption or son-in-law, as long as it is based on free will.

By increasing the number of "male members of the former imperial family", there is a greater chance that someone will be prepared to save the imperial family from danger, even in an environment where human rights may be restricted. In addition to reducing the risk of the disappearance of the imperial line, it would also reduce the speculation surrounding the marriage of female members of the Imperial Family.

In the past, I have pointed out that the conservatives' insistence on adhering to what they see as "Japanese tradition" will only lead to the decline of Japan (Article No. 144). Even in the debate on the succession to the throne, the conservatives, who value tradition, have too strong an opinion. This makes it impossible to proceed with the debate, and the resolution of the essential issues will be postponed.

Tradition is important, as is the respect for the "family" of the Imperial Household and the Imperial Family. However, in order to create a sustainable system for the future, it is important to introduce new ideas that depart from tradition, such as giving the right of succession to the throne to an "individual".