The Battle in Politics between Those Who Want to Return to the Pre-Covid-19 Era and Those Who Want to Create a New Society (Article No. 294)

(Japanese original version is posted to Diamond Online on January 25, 2022)

Abstract
While infection with the Omicron variant is spreading rapidly around the world, the UK and other countries have shown a policy of prioritising economic activity. In Japan, too, Shigeru Omi, Chairman of the Government Sub-Committee, has pointed out that "the key word will be 'limiting the number of people' rather than 'limiting the flow of people' as in the past", and the idea of a 'post-covid-19' society will be considered in earnest. There will be a struggle between those who want to return to the past and those who want to create a new society.

Those who want to return to the pre-covid-19 era and those who want to create a new society
Will a "post-Covid-19" society return to the way it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, or will it be replaced by a new system? This year could be a turning point. There will be a struggle between those who want to go back to the way things were and those who want to create a new society.

For example, they want to return to the Japanese way of working, where coming to work on time, face-to-face sales are revived, and close relationships are built through internal "drinking" and entertaining clients.

In schools, including universities, we would like to return to the previous style of teaching, which was entirely face-to-face, after the covid-19 pandemic has passed. They would like to return to the old style of extracurricular activities such as clubs and socialising.

On the other hand, there are those who would like to continue using the technologies , introduced during the covid-19 pandemic, such as remote working, meetings and classes in companies, schools, etc. In short, these are people who believe that they do not have to stop what they have been able to do.

In our home, we can work, learn and attend conferences abroad. I have described this new situation, where there is no need to move, as "superglobalisation" (see Article No. 249).

The time and space freed up by no longer needing to travel can be used for new things. This should lead to innovation and social progress.

The confrontation between those who want to return and those who want to create a new society will occur in a variety of settings, from the workplace and schools to politics, government, business and international politics.

Changes in politics, what the Liberal Democrats have done since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic
In politics, since the covid-19 pandemic, not only has the "neo-liberalism" that had dominated the world for so many years retreated, but the "populism" that had risen in opposition to it has also declined.

The governments in the world were able to spend vast sums of money in the name of saving the lives of their citizens, who were forced to restrict their actions. The public's attention was now focused on what the governments could do for them.

On the other hand, the populists, who had gained popularity with the public, were ignored by the people because they did not actually hand out money (Article No. 249, p. 5).

A similar phenomenon occurred in Japan. There were two changes of prime ministers, as criticism focused on the measures to deal with the covid19 pandemic, which repeatedly led to the collapse of medical care, the delay in securing vaccines and inoculation, and the holding of the Tokyo Olympics during the pandemic (Article No. 284).

However, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)won the lower house election last November, and the "opposition unity" including the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDU) and the Japan Communist Party (JCP) lost seats. This was because the LDP staged a "pseudo-change of government" by holding an election for the presidency in October, and because there was a distrust of the "huddled masses" of the opposition parties, whose basic policies did not coincide with those of the LDP (Article No. 287).

Nevertheless, it was the most important that the public, which had suffered so much from the covid-19 pandemic, was focused on what the LDP would do.

From the time of the Shinzo Abe government, apart from those related to security and economic security, the LDP had put forward social democratic policies such as "social security for all generations", "social advancement of women", "free education", "reform of working methods" and "acceptance of foreign simple workers" (Article No. 218, p. 3).

Furthermore, Fumio Kishida government has taken a "left turn" in its policy orientation, proposing a "new capitalism" that would redistribute profits to the individual level and correct the disparities that are said to have been widened by Abenomics.

The LDP is not "those who want to create a new society
The Kishida government launched a policy of providing 100,000 yen in benefits to households raising children under the age of 18 and to households exempt from residential taxation. Although the policy was met with much criticism, it demonstrated Kishida's strong desire to reduce inequality and redistribute benefits.

In addition to calling on companies to "raise wages", Prime Minister Kishida has also announced a three-year, 400 billion yen package of measures to support skills development, help people find new jobs and help them move up the ladder by moving to other companies. Furthermore, the government has decided to set up a "Children and Families Agency". Despite the restrictions imposed by its conservative ideology, the government is also expected to come up with a series of policies on welfare, social security, and the human rights of women, children and minorities.

In contrast to the "new capitalism" of the Kishida government, the left-wing opposition parties, such as the CDP and the JCP, are not doing very well. In particular, the new leader of the CDP, Kenta Izumi, has little presence in the political arena.

This is because the Kishida government's policies are incompatible with those of the left-wing opposition parties. When the opposition parties call for more welfare, social security, and support for women, children, and minorities, the Kishida administration says, "The opposition parties say so, so let's do it.

That would be an achievement of the Kishida government. The left-wing opposition parties have become a complementary force to the LDP.

The LDP is a "catch-all party" (Article No. 169, p. 3). It is a kind of "general trading company" or "department store" of policies, with a set of measures to deal with all policy issues. The problem with the LDP, however, is that its policies are "too little", "too late" and "too old" (Article No. 290, p. 6).

The Kishida government's policies are also lined up in a variety of ways. That sounds good, but Kishida is saying that he is going to do things that have already been done years ago in Europe, the US and China.

Most problematic of all is the fact that there are few concrete plans for "regulatory reform". Kishida says, "We will carry out a comprehensive review of 40,000 laws, ordinances and regulations, and finalise a regulatory review plan this spring.

However, it would be "too late" for the government to start thinking about what regulations to review. This means that digitalisation will not progress, new industries will not develop, and Japan will be left behind by the rest of the world.

The LDP is reluctant to deregulate because it would impose "pain" by cutting into vested interest groups and reducing the profits of the LDP's support base. This is a time when relief from the covid-19 pandemic is needed. It would be even more difficult to take measures that would reduce the profits of its supporters.

In short, the measures that the left opposition advocates to help the weak will be done by the LDP with its budget. The leftist opposition has no reason to exist. Instead, a "right opposition" is needed to criticise the LDP in order to prevent Japan from being left behind in world development.

Is the "right opposition" "those who want to create a new society"?
Expectations for a "right-wing opposition party" were shown by the public opinion in last November's lower house election. While the left-wing "opposition unity" were defeated in the lower house election, Nihon Ishin no Kai (the Japan Restoration Association) and the National Democratic Party (NDP) fought well (Article No. 288).

After the general election, Ishin no Kai and the NDP have been conspicuously fighting together. The NDP has also begun talks on strengthening ties with the regional party Tomin First. These moves are still only in their infancy, and there are various past grudges that have prevented these parties from joining forces. However, we believe that the rise of the opposition parties to the right of the LDP is a natural progression.

I would like to return to the topic of "those who want to return to the past versus those who want to create a new society". The future axis of conflict in the political world also follows this direction. The traditional "conservative vs. liberal" axis of confrontation will no longer make sense. Firstly, Japan cannot afford to make security and economic security a political issue in the current environment.

As for domestic policy, conservatives believe in "sharing with the poor", while liberals believe in "more rights for workers". Ideologically, they are diametrically opposed. However, the actual policies will be little different, a situation similar to the "consensus politics" of the European welfare states of the 50s and 60s.

There will be a ruling coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito, complemented by the CDP, the Social Democratic Party, the JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi as one group. Its policies will be based on equality and the reduction of disparities, the improvement of the rights of the weak, the elderly, minorities and women, social democratic employment policies, the expansion of social security and welfare, free education, the expansion of foreign workers and public works to protect the interests of shaky industries.

It is a group that should be called the "Socialist Stability Party". It forms the majority in society and is the ruling party.

On the other hand, there is a group that wants to promote digitalisation, IT and superglobalisation: a group formed by people who are active as individuals on social networks, entrepreneurs, start-ups and IT companies.

They want to compete in the market and gain wealth. Basically, they are not interested in politics. However, if politics is too late in the evolution of society, it becomes a hindrance. Therefore, they support parties that criticise politics as "Too Little", "Too Late" or "Too Old".

This is the group that should be called the "Digital Innovation Party". In Japan, it is Nihon Ishin no Kai, the NDP, etc. They are in opposition because they are supported by a minority who are not usually involved in politics.

The Digital Innovation Party is not the only way to make progress in society. There is a risk of concentration of wealth and the rise of "digital authoritarianism", which uses IT and digital technology to control information and violate human rights. The Socialist Stability Party has a role to play in checking this.

This "Social Stability Party vs. Digital Innovation Party" will become the axis of confrontation not only in Japan but also in democracies around the world. Traditionally, neo-liberalism was the mainstream, opposed by social democracy. But after the Corona disaster, the relationship has been reversed. It is important to understand the change in which conventional wisdom is no longer valid.