2024/7/18 投資ネタ

UG
#FTNT TD Cowen Upgrades Fortinet to Buy from Hold, Sets PT at $75
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:支出抑制がﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ
-OTｱｯﾌﾟｸﾞﾚｰﾄﾞ/SASEのｼｪｱ拡大
-on-premiseでのAI需要増加の恩恵
#ELF Baird Upgrades $ELF Beauty to Outperform, Raises PT to $230 from $210
-ﾏｰｹｯﾄｼｪｱ拡大とEPS成長可能
--ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ良好
--配送力の拡大
--国際展開
#TOST upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho at 33
-2025までにﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑが200blnに到達
-ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄ処理のｺｽﾄの改善余地あり
#GPS upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley at 29
-EPS上振れ余地あり
--経営を評価
#VFC upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi at 20
-Supremeの売却額は予想よりも良い
-BSがｽﾘﾑになり経営資源を投下可能
#SQ upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
-利便性向上による売上拡大余地
--ﾏｰﾁｬﾝﾄ・ｵﾝﾎﾞｰﾃﾞｨﾝｸﾞの簡素買う
--Tap-to-Payの導入

DG
#CRWD Redburn-Atlantic Double Downgrades $CRWD to Sell from Buy, Lowers PT to $275 from $380
-以下の恩恵の消失
--ｺﾛﾅによるｴﾝﾄﾞﾎﾟｲﾝﾄ需要増
--IoTの増加
--人手不足によるMDRｻｰﾋﾞｽ需要
-AIによるﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ悪化
-競争激化
#PANW downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Redburn Atlantic at 325
-FY26からの成長加速が見込まれているが難しい
-CRWDと同じく競争激化/ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ悪化
#FL downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley at 18
-EPS下方修正リスク有
--2Hの売上と収益性の回復を見込む
#VFC price target raised by several firms
-Spreme売却でﾍﾞｱ材料が一つなくなる
-社債も償還可能
#DOCS downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo at 19
-ｻｰﾍﾞｲ:成長鈍化
--ﾃﾞｼﾞﾀﾙ広告向けの予算が縮小
#ASML downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank
#ELV downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA at 530
-Medicaidのﾏｰｼﾞﾝのﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ読めず
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝも高い
#PYPL downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大の為にはどちらか必要
--GMVの拡大
-取引単価の上昇

#TER downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland

#TAP downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays at 47
-北米のﾋﾞｰﾙ事業の期待値が高すぎる

earnings
#TSM TSMC rides AI demand to raise revenue forecast, says no to US joint venture
〇:Q2売上・EPS/Q3売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:FY24売上g)raised
-Capex: Raised to $30-32B from $28-30B
-供給は2025までﾀｲﾄなまま
#DPZ Domino’s Pizza’s stock slides after revenue miss and warning of fewer new store openings - MW
〇:
△:Q2売上
×:
-値下げ/新商品で改善せず
-SSS +4.8% vs 4.92%e
-店舗拡大鈍化
#DHI tightens home sales forecast, unveils $4 billion share buyback
〇:3Q売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:3Qﾈｯﾄｵｰﾀﾞｰ・ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ/FY24売上g
-需要は底堅いまま
#MTB M&T Bank Non-GAAP EPS of $3.79 beats by $0.28, revenue of $2.3B beats by $20M - SA
〇:2QEPS・引当・NII・NIM
×:ﾛｰﾝ・預金・
#KEY KeyCorp Q2 earnings achieve slight beat as deposits grow, loan demand tepid - SA
〇:Q2売上
×:Q2引当
-ﾛｰﾝQoQ-2.6%:2Hに需要増見込み
-NII成長見込み-2～-5%
#MAN
×:Q2売上・EPS/3QEPSg
#BX Blackstone Profit Misses Estimates as Real Estate Exits Slow

#NFLX
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾈｯﾄ加入者数/Q3EPSg
×:Q3売上g・年間成長率
-ad tier +34%
#ISRG
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:
#PPG
-2Hは全体的に回復見込み
-SSSは横ばい
--航空、包装、建築系は強い
--自動車が期中から鈍化
--資本財は弱いまま
-欧州も回復しているが弱いまま
-在庫はYoYで減少
#CTAS

個別株
#BA Seattle workers vote in favor of strike, Reuters reports
Morgan Stanley buyers of any weakness in airline stocks after United report
-UALの見通しは保守的すぎる
-供給過剰が解決すれば2H/FY25に向けて見通し良好
#META Meta explores stake in Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica, FT reports
#AVGO OpenAI Has Talked to Broadcom About Developing New AI Chip - The Information
#TSLA テスラ、カリフォルニア州の新車販売急減－競合勢にシェア奪われる

TP関連
#AAPL Goldman Sachs Reiterates Buy Rating on Apple, PT $265
-Apple Intelligenceによる売上増
-Mac/iPadにもAIの恩恵
-price/mix:高級iphoneを強化
#MSFT price target raised to $495 from $470 at TD Cowen at 495
-Azureの予想以上の成長継続
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:Office 365 copilotはmixだが、期待は高くない
#MA #V PT lowered by JPM
-Q2のｶｰﾄﾞ使用量は安定的あｄが、過大評価されている可能性有
#DASH JMP Securities recommends buying DoorDash shares on recent share weakness at 140
-SP500への加入
-投資による新商品開発/TAM拡大
#ADI #NXPI PT raised by Barclays
-自動車関連以外の資本財向け半導体の見通しを上方修正
#DDOG Citi has 'mixed views' of potential Datadog, GitLab combination
-GTLB買収が成功するか不透明
#TJX price target raised to $122 from $113 at Morgan Stanley
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ拡大可能
--収益性が高い
#DLTR price target raised to $148 from $135 at JPMorgan
-成長性が過小評価されている
#FANG price target raised by several firms
-FY24の戦略にｺﾐｯﾄ継続
--ﾊﾟｰﾐｱﾝの人員削減でｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ
-TILを加速させる効率化、MAの加速
#PYPL making progress on key priorities, says Deutsche Bank
-ｼｪｱ再拡大とﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ改善
#ELF selloff on tariff talk a buying opportunity, says Canaccord
-製品の80%を中国から輸入も関税はマネージ可能
#TAP price target lowered to $57 from $61 at Jefferies
-ｼｪｱ奪取に苦しんでいる
--競争激化と消費鈍化
#TMUS price target raised to $200 from $185 at Deutsche Bank
-価格弾力性に注目
--他社が価格を引き上げており、引上げ余地あり
#SYY price target lowered to $87 from $91 at BofA
-ﾚｽﾄﾗﾝでの支出が鈍化
#PG price target raised to $183 from $177 at Evercore ISI
-中国の回復無しでも現在の見通しはﾋﾞｰﾄ可能
#CL price target raised to $106 from $100 at Evercore ISI
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑは強いが織込済み
#SNOW Oppenheimer Lowers $SNOW PT to $180 from $220, Maintains Outperform
-使用量の増加とｸﾗｳﾄﾞの予算縮小は鈍化
-AI関連商品の売上拡大を示唆するはず
#ALLY price target raised by several firms
-EVﾘｰｽのtax creditの恩恵
-今後もﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大可能
-自動車のNCOｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ悪化
#ELV price target lowered to $611 from $621 at Barclays
#ELV Buy Elevance Health on the dip, says Cantor Fitzgerald at 600
-Medicaid関連がﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#USB price target raised by several firms
-2Hのﾚﾊﾞﾚｯｼﾞが効き始める
--資産のﾘﾌﾟﾗｲｽと投資の恩恵
#SYF price target raised mix
-低所得者層は裁量的支出を減らすも、金持ちは強いまま
-NIIの減少/interchange feeの減少
-予想よりよいｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄと営業費用
#JNJ price target lowered to $185 from $195 at TD Cowen
-MAによる悪影響有
-見通し事態は良好
#PLD price target raised to $123 from $119 at Evercore ISI
-利下げ期待でAFFOﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ引上げ
#AA price target raised to $43 from $39 at B. Riley
-ｱﾙﾐの輸送が想定より強い

マクロ・債券
(米国)
US Jobless Claims 243k (est 229k, last 223k)
US Continuing Claims 1.87m (est 1.86m, last 1.85m)
July Philadelphia Fed Index Rises to 13.9, Above All Estimates
Index 13.9 (est 2.9, last 1.3)
Price Paid 19.8 (last 22.5)
New Orders 20.7 (-2.2)
Employment 15.2 (-2.5)
Inventories -9.4 (-6.4)
Avg Workweek -1.6 (4.8)
US LEADING INDEX (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: -0.2% VS -0.5% PREVIOUS; EST -0.3%
US 10-YEAR TIPS HIGH YIELD ACTUAL 1.883% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 2.184%)
バンス氏、筋金入りのポピュリスト路線強く打ち出す－指名受諾演説
(欧州)
EUROZONE CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT MOM ACTUAL -0.9% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -0.19%)
ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged
*ECB OFFICIALS CONSIDER IF ONLY ONE MORE CUT IS FEASIBLE IN 2024
ECB HAWKS OPEN TO SEPTEMBER RATE CUT PROVIDED UPCOMING DATA CONFIRM DISINFLATION UNDERWAY - SOURCES.
(その他)
中国、現代化に向け質の高い成長を最重視－共産党の３中総会閉幕
英国の賃金上昇が鈍化、８月利下げに望みつなぐ－英中銀の判断難しく
UK GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACTUAL -13 (FORECAST -12, PREVIOUS -14)
コモ
Oil prices steady on profit-taking ahead of US job data - Reuters
Chinese rare earth companies are facing losses due to lower prices and increased government control, stemming from falling demand and higher production. This is affecting companies like Rising Nonferrous Metals and China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech.