2024/6/25 投資ネタ

UG
#NET upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS
-GTMのﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑ回復
-SASEﾁｪｯｸが良好
-見通し引下げでRR改善
#GPS upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen at 30
-4ﾌﾞﾗﾝﾄﾞの改革に対する評価が甘い
-Old Navyの安定した成長
-2HにAthletaの売上成長率が再回復
#BALL upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist at 76
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#CHRW upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI at 99
-効率化によるNASTのAGP改善
#MQ Wells Fargo upgrades Marqeta with important 'clean-ups' emerging
-2Q/3Qに+ﾈﾀが出てくる
--Cash App更新の影響
--ﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞEBITDAの継続
--株式報酬の削減
#XEPV upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi at 8.3
-2HよりROE回復期待
-2031年までに統廃合が続く過程でﾓﾃﾞﾙｻｲｸﾙが長期化
-ｾﾀﾞﾝ輸出増
#CPRI #TPR Wells upgrades Capri on favorable risk/reward with or without deal
-買収は成功する見込み
-買収がない場合は資産の売却実施見込
DG
JPMorgan Downgrades Sea to "Neutral" from Overweight and Lowers PT to $78 from $84
earnings
#ODFL downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI at 196
-需要は改善しているが、Q3/4の期待が高すぎる

earnings
#CCL
〇:Q2売上・EPS
-net yieldは期を追うごとに拡大
-2025の予約は堅調
--価格も上昇
#FDX
〇:4QEPS/FY25Capexg
△:4Q売上
×:FY25EPSg
-売上成長率LtMSG
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ順調
-輸送単価も上昇
-需要は弱いままだが安定化

PT関連
#AAPL Evercore Raises PT to $250 from $220 - Outperform
-iphoneの売上3%成長は見込みが低い
--AIをiphone 15 pro or 16に限り買替促進
--買替ｻｲｸﾙ1mth短縮で7%成長
#UBER Piper Sandler Calls UBER a ‘Sleeping Giant’ with Overweight Rating and $88 PT
-広告収入のｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞが大きい
-2%のattach rateで5blnの売上
#TTD Citi 'incrementally more positive' on Trade Desk after Cannes Lions
-関係者からﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞなﾌｨｰﾄﾞﾊﾞｯｸ
#ARM price target raised to $169 from $110 at Guggenheim
-Royalty売上21%YoYは達成可能
-ﾗｲｾﾝｽ売上も堅調
#PINS price target raised to $49 from $48 at Wells Fargo
-20%YoY売上成長でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ正当化可能
#NSC price target lowered to $260 from $270 at Wells Fargo
-OR目標達成困難
--需要の回復が鈍い
#EBAY price target raised to $57 from $47 at Wells Fargo
-GMVはQ3に成長に回復見込
#POOL price target lowered by several firms
-短期的な見通し悪化
--新築/ﾘﾉﾍﾞ共に需要弱い
-2024がﾎﾞﾄﾑの可能性は高いが、確認要
#SEDG price target lowered by several firms
-Q2の弱いｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽを反映
-FCFの弱さは住宅太陽光の需要が戻っていないことを示唆
#DECK price target raised to $1,200 from $1,120 at BTIG
-消費者は選択的だが、2Hから変化無
#DRI price target lowered to $175 from $186 at Argus
-take out/deliveryの恩恵でFY25はﾋﾞｰﾄ可能
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝは落ちている
#OLLI price target raised to $107 from $100 at Piper Sandler
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:ﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒは良好なまま
-WMT/AMZN対比競争力のあるﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ実施
#ALB price target lowered to $95 from $122 at Piper Sandler
-ﾘﾁｳﾑ価格が需給の弱さで下落継続
-ﾘﾁｳﾑの在庫も高止まり
#JBHT price target lowered to $191 from $199 at Evercore ISI
-Q2 EPS見通しを下方修正
-ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞも改善していない
#XPO price target lowered to $124 from $144 at Evercore ISI
-Q2のﾋﾞｰﾄは難しい
--需要のｱｯﾌﾟﾃﾞｰﾄは概ね期待値並を示唆
#KNX price target lowered to $53 from $55 at Evercore ISI
-Q2ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽの下限以下見込み
#LLY price target raised to $1,000 from $892 at Truist
-処方薬の増加
--特にやせ薬の強い需要
-経営のﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞｺﾒﾝﾄ

個別株
#MSFT European Union antitrust officials have raised concerns that Microsoft might be stifling competition by bundling its Teams communication product with its popular productivity software, Office 365 and Microsoft 365.
#TSLA recalls ~23K U.S. 2024 Cybertruck vehicles due to windshield wiper failure and loose applique, which can create road hazards and increase crash risks.
#ORCL Morgan Stanley sees $370M to $1.3B potential risk to Oracle from TikTok bill
#SEDG SolarEdge announced it may face delays in receiving payment for $11.4 million owed by PM&M Electric, which filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

#WMT CFO says Q2 'won't be like the first quarter' from comp perspective
-Q2の比較はQ1程強くない
#RIVN SOARS 36% ON VOLKSWAGEN PLAN TO INVEST $5 BILLION

マクロ・債券
(米国)
CHICAGO NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX ACTUAL 0.18 (FORECAST -0.25, PREVIOUS -0.23)
US REDBOOK YOY ACTUAL 5.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 5.9%)
US HOUSE PRICE INDEX MOM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.1%)
US CASESHILLER 20 YOY ACTUAL 7.2% (FORECAST 7%, PREVIOUS 7.4%)
RICHMOND FED COMP. INDEX ACTUAL -10 (FORECAST -3, PREVIOUS 0)
US CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACTUAL 100.4 (FORECAST 100, PREVIOUS 102.0)
US 2-YEAR NOTE AUCTION
BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.75
HIGH YIELD 4.706% MATCHING PRESALE WI
(欧州)
SPANISH GDP QOQ ACTUAL 0.8% (FORECAST 0.7%, PREVIOUS 0.7%)
European shares fall as Airbus hammers aerospace shares, tech slips - Reuters
(その他)
JAPANESE SERVICE PPI ACTUAL 2.5% (FORECAST 3%, PREVIOUS 2.8%)
AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT ACTUAL 1.7% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -0.3%)
HONG KONG IMPORTS ACTUAL 9.6% (FORECAST 8.5%, PREVIOUS 3.7%)
HONG KONG EXPORTS ACTUAL 14.8% (FORECAST 14.8%, PREVIOUS 11.9%)
BOJ could be setting the stage for a “hawkish double surprise” next month with a tapering of QE coupled with a rate hike. RTRS
CANADIAN CPI YOY ACTUAL 2.9% (FORECAST 2.6%, PREVIOUS 2.7%)
CANADIAN CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.6% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.5%)
コモ
Russia’s Oil Exports Drop the Most in Three Months on Port Works - BBG
US API CRUDE OIL STOCK CHANGE ACTUAL 0.9M (FORECAST -3M, PREVIOUS 2.264M)