EV車載用電池のリチウム価格が安い：2024年1月21日（日）

国際エネルギー機関（IEA）の世界エネルギー見通しでは，2050年の脱炭素（NZE）シナリオにおいて，リチウム需要が2022年の10倍に増加するという。

　EV車載用電池に必要なリチウム価格は，EV増加期待による旺盛なリチウム需要見通しにより上昇すると思いきや，足元では2022年11月の価格水準に比べて大きく値を下げている。世界最大のリチウム生産国の中国では，リチウム生産企業の業績が悪化，新興EV企業が倒産している。これは，中国市場のEV販売の伸びが大きく鈍化（それでも前年同期比2割強の増加）する一方で，世界的にリチウム生産が拡大し，一時的にリチウム需給が供給過剰に陥っているためだという。

　リチウム相場の指標の炭酸リチウム価格（中国の元建て）は2022年11月水準と比べると約8割安くなっている。こうした相場の大変動で関連企業の収益が低下し，リチウム生産関連の投資が中期的に低下すると，今はリチウム需給が供給過剰であるが，投資不足による供給不足に陥ることが懸念されている。価格の大変動は，短期的にも中長期的にも望ましくない。

Low lithium prices for electric vehicle (EV) batteries：January 21st(Sunday)

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency (IEA), in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario for 2050, lithium demand is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022. While the anticipated surge in lithium demand due to the growth in EVs was expected to drive up lithium prices for EV batteries, the current situation shows a significant decrease in prices compared to the levels in November 2022.

Contrary to expectations, the lithium prices necessary for EV batteries are experiencing a substantial decline, despite the strong outlook for lithium demand driven by expectations of increased EV adoption. In China, the world's largest lithium producer, the performance of lithium production companies has deteriorated, and emerging EV companies are facing bankruptcy. This is attributed to the significant slowdown in the growth of EV sales in the Chinese market (still showing a strong increase of over 20% compared to the same period last year), coupled with the global expansion of lithium production, resulting in a temporary oversupply of lithium.

The benchmark for lithium prices, represented by lithium carbonate prices (in Chinese yuan), has decreased by approximately 80% compared to the levels in November 2022. The drastic fluctuations in the lithium market are causing a decline in the earnings of related companies. While the current oversupply of lithium is evident, there is concern that insufficient investment in lithium production-related activities, due to the volatility in the market, could lead to a shortage in supply in the medium term. Such price volatility is undesirable both in the short term and the medium to long term.