”天然ガスで読み解く国際情勢”試論。軽質から重質へ向かうシェール。

米国のシェールは様々に言われている。もはやブームではないという見解も存在したが、DANIEL YERGINに倣って、エネルギー・地政学の観点から見ると、その重要性はますます高まっていることが分かる。

一つの大きな流れは天然ガスの成分である。その成分は「軽質」から「重質」の流れにある。ガスのような分子量の低い成分から、重質なものの混じる成分へとシフトしている。

筆者にとって、シェールの印象は、非常に「軽質」なガスであるというものであった。その成分がメタン(CH4)で占められていることから、メタンを液化するLNGにする設備を建設することによって、米国はLNGの輸入国から輸出国となった。無論、ガスである以上、北米に張り巡らされているパイプラインで国内の天然ガス火力に融通することもできるが、LNGにして海上輸送を可能にすれば、ロシアの支配権であったヨーロッパにも米国の影響力を行使することが出来る。

重い成分を含まない分、LNGの輸出をしても、輸入側での熱量調整が必要になることから、その点で経済性の問題が発生するという可能性がある。

DANIEL YERGINのIHS社の「The Shale Gale turns 10: A powerful wind at America's back」ではこのシェール革命の流れを三期に分けている。

IHS Markit Report　”The Shale Gasle turns10: A powerful wind at America's back" より抜粋。

1）2005年から2008年を 　　Pre-Shale Gale
2）2009年から2014年を 　　Gassy Shale Gale
3）2015年から2022年までを Oily Shale Gale

の三期に分けている。

YERGINはこのレポートのP11の中で、
"The Shale Gale may have begun with natural gas, but the shale revolution would be extended to oil, with global enormous impact."と述べている。

軽質から重質へ、ガス留分から石油成分へとその成分が変化している点に着目している。エタンより重い成分の液留分は、一般に、広義では、NGL(Natural Gas Liquid)と呼ぶが、工業上、エタンからはエチレンのような化成品、プロパンやブタンはLPGと呼ばれ、用いられている。またペンタンより重い成分は、ガソリンのような燃料となる。

北米圏とアジア圏では、LNGの受け入れ側において求められる成分(例えば高位発熱量)は異なる。

例えるならば、北米での天然ガスの品質と日本や韓国などのアジア圏での天然ガスの品質(スペック)は実は異なっている。前者があっさりした中華そばだとすれば、後者はこってりした豚骨・家系ラーメンのような相違がある。

日本のような東南アジアで用いられる天然ガスの品質は、高位発熱量の高いLNGが用いられており、主要な輸入相手国は、東南アジア、オーストラリア、カタールと言った国々であった。それに対し、米国内での天然ガスの品質で求められる高位発熱量は低いことがその特徴である。

最近のシェールの重質化の流れは、将来、米国のシェールがアジアでも高い競争力を持ってくる事を示唆しているようにも思える。かつてはあり得なかったような米国内で化成品、ポリエチレン、ポリプロピレン製造も経済的に十分可能な水準になってくる。米国企業が今後、圧倒的な価格競争力を背景に日本市場、アジア市場に参入してくる可能性も十分にある。

ロシアによるウクライナへの侵攻の動機が、天然ガスで覇権を握れなくなりつつある”ロシアの焦り”であるという仮説に立つと、米国が日本やアジア、さらに、天然ガスの巨大消費国である中国においても十分に競争力が出てくることでその傾向はますます強くなる。

最近、エネルギー価格の高騰が日本にも襲い、電力会社が軒並み電気代の値上げを計画している事が報道された。理由は様々で、例えば、国内の原子力発電の再稼働がなされていない事をその原因とする見解も根強く存在するが、庶民の財布を直撃する電気代の値上げに至る前の”平時”に、調達先の多様化を目指した政策を十分に検討しておくべきだった。

世界情勢を読み違え、カーボンニュートラルなどというコストパフォーマンスが皆無の政策等は、早い段階で廃棄、もしくは、ロシアによるウクライナ侵攻の時点で、塩漬けにして打ち捨てて、エネルギー安全保障に注力しておくべきであった。環境政策に傾斜してきたツケはSVBをはじめとする欧米の銀行の取り付け騒ぎや破綻などによって露呈しつつあるが、紙幅が尽きてきたので、別の機会に譲りたい。

家庭の電気代、6月から14〜42%値上げ　電力7社発表

家庭の電気代、6月から14〜42%値上げ　電力7社発表 - 日本経済新聞

以上。

Chat GPT師匠の回答。

1）Ethylene production from shale gas.
Shale gas can serve as a feedstock for the production of ethylene, which is a　vital building block for various chemical and plastic products. Ethylene is　predominantly produced through the process of steam cracking, and shale gas has become an increasingly important source of feedstock for this　process.

The production of ethylene from shale gas typically involves the following steps:

Shale Gas Extraction: Shale gas, primarily composed of methane, is extracted from underground shale formations using techniques such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.

Natural Gas Processing: The extracted shale gas undergoes processing to remove impurities, such as sulfur compounds, water, and heavierhydrocarbons, to obtain a cleaner natural gas stream.

Ethane Separation: The processed shale gas stream is then subjected to further separation processes to isolate the desired components. Ethane, which is a key feedstock for ethylene production, is separated from the natural gas stream using techniques like cryogenic processing or absorption processes.

Ethane Cracking: Once ethane is separated, it undergoes steam cracking, which is the primary method used for ethylene production. In steam cracking, the ethane molecules are heated at high temperatures (typically around 850-950 degrees Celsius) in the presence of steam. This process breaks down the ethane molecules into smaller molecules, primarily ethylene, along with other byproducts like propylene, butadiene, and various other chemical compounds.

Separation and Purification: The cracked gas mixture is then subjected to separation and purification steps to isolate the desired ethylene product. This involves processes such as distillation, fractionation, and purification through technologies like cryogenic separation or adsorption.

Product Distribution: The purified ethylene is typically transported via pipelines or other means to downstream industries, where it serves as a key raw material for the production of plastics, resins, fibers, solvents, and various other chemicals.

Shale gas has emerged as a significant feedstock for ethylene production, particularly in regions with substantial shale gas resources, such as the United States. The abundance and relatively low cost of shale gas have contributed to the expansion of ethylene capacity and the growth of the petrochemical industry in these regions.

It's important to note that the production of ethylene from shale gas is a complex process involving various technologies and considerations, and specific details may vary depending on the specific plant configuration, location, and market dynamics.

2）LPG recovery from shale Gas

LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) recovery from shale gas involves the extraction and processing of valuable hydrocarbon gases, such as propane and butane, that are present in shale formations alongside natural gas. LPG is a versatile energy source used for heating, cooking, transportation, and various industrial applications.

The process of LPG recovery from shale gas typically involves the following steps:

Shale Gas Extraction: Shale gas, primarily composed of methane, is extracted from underground shale formations using techniques like hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.

Natural Gas Processing: The extracted shale gas undergoes processing to remove impurities and separate the desired components. This processing typically includes the removal of water, sulfur compounds, and heavier hydrocarbons.

NGL Separation: After the initial processing, the natural gas stream is subjected to NGL (Natural Gas Liquids) separation. NGLs are a group of hydrocarbons that include propane, butane, ethane, and natural gasoline. Various separation techniques, such as cryogenic processing or fractionation, are employed to isolate the NGL components from the natural gas stream.

Fractionation: Once the NGLs are separated, fractionation is often used to further separate the individual components, such as propane and butane. Fractionation involves the use of fractionation towers or columns, where the different NGL components are separated based on their different boiling points.

LPG Recovery: The separated propane and butane streams, which are the primary components of LPG, are then processed to remove any remaining impurities and ensure their quality and purity. This may involve additional purification steps such as drying, filtering, and refining.

LPG Storage and Distribution: The recovered and purified propane and butane are typically stored and transported as LPG in specialized pressurized containers or tanks. LPG can be distributed via pipelines, truck transport, or other means to be used for various applications such as residential and commercial heating, cooking, and industrial processes.

It's important to note that the specific processes and technologies used for LPG recovery from shale gas may vary depending on factors such as the composition of the shale gas, the economics of the region, and the desired product specifications. Additionally, the recovery of NGLs, including LPG, from shale gas is often economically advantageous as it provides additional revenue streams beyond the extraction of methane for natural gas.

3）NGL revoveruy from shale gas.

NGL (Natural Gas Liquids) recovery from shale gas refers to the process of extracting valuable hydrocarbon liquids that are present alongside natural gas in shale formations. Shale gas is primarily composed of methane, but it can also contain other hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, which are collectively referred to as NGLs.

During the production of shale gas, NGLs are recovered through a combination of separation and processing techniques. The exact methods employed may vary depending on the composition of the gas stream and the desired products. Here are some common techniques used for NGL recovery:

Condensate Separation: Shale gas wells often produce a mixture of natural gas and condensate, which is a light hydrocarbon liquid. Separation equipment, such as separators and stabilizers, is used to separate the condensate from the gas stream.

Cryogenic Processing: Cryogenic processing involves cooling the natural gas stream to extremely low temperatures to selectively separate the NGL components. The cooling process condenses the NGLs into a liquid state, which can then be separated from the remaining natural gas.

Fractionation: Fractionation is a process where the mixed NGL stream obtained from cryogenic processing is further separated into its individual components, such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline. Fractionation towers or columns are utilized to achieve this separation based on the different boiling points of each component.

Stabilization: Stabilization is a process used to remove lighter NGL components, such as ethane, from the natural gas stream. This is typically done by passing the gas through a stabilization column or tower, where the lighter components are separated and recovered.

The recovered NGLs have various applications and can be used as feedstock in petrochemical plants, fuel for heating and transportation, and as a blendstock for producing gasoline. The specific NGL recovery process employed can vary depending on the economics, infrastructure, and market demand of the region where shale gas is being produced.

It's worth noting that NGL recovery from shale gas has contributed significantly to the overall economics and viability of shale gas production, as NGLs are valuable byproducts that can enhance the overall revenue from shale gas operation.