米国は利下げに、日本は利上げに
本文
米国と日本の金融政策は異なる方向性を示しています。米国では2025年前半に追加利下げが実施される可能性が浮上しており、日本では利上げが検討されています。
米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）のウォラー理事は、12月の米消費者物価指数（CPI）の改善を受け、ディスインフレ傾向が続けば、利下げが加速し、タイミングが前倒しされる可能性があると述べました。同氏は、インフレ率が目標の2％に早期に近づく可能性に楽観的な見方を示し、2025年にはFOMCによる追加利下げが複数回実施される可能性を示唆しました。利下げの実施や回数は今後の経済データに依存すると強調しつつ、今年前半にもその兆候が現れる可能性に言及しました。
一方、日本では日銀が物価情勢や賃上げ動向を踏まえ、0.25％から0.5％への政策金利引き上げを検討しています。2024年度の賃上げは33年ぶりの高水準が期待され、賃金コストの価格転嫁が進んでいることが背景です。また、春闘をはじめとする持続的な賃上げ機運が、日銀の2％物価安定目標の実現を後押ししています。さらに、米国新政権の経済政策や関税政策の影響も注視されており、これらが市場に与える波乱がない場合、利上げ決定がなされる可能性が高いと見られます。金利スワップ市場では既に利上げを8割程度織り込んでおり、市場の期待が高まる中、日銀は経済や物価情勢の展望を基に、最終決定を下す方針です。
このように、米国が利下げの可能性を探る中、日本は利上げに向けた準備を進めており、両国の金融政策はそれぞれの経済状況を反映して対照的な動きを見せています。
English
The monetary policies of the United States and Japan are showing divergent directions. In the United States, there is a possibility of additional interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, while in Japan, a rate hike is under consideration.
Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, stated that if the trend of disinflation continues following the improvement in the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), rate cuts could accelerate, and their timing might be moved forward. He expressed optimism that the inflation rate could approach the 2% target sooner than expected and suggested that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might implement multiple additional rate cuts in 2025. He emphasized that the timing and frequency of rate cuts would depend on upcoming economic data, hinting that signs of such a move could emerge in the first half of this year.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering raising its policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, taking into account price trends and wage growth. Wage increases in fiscal 2024 are expected to reach the highest levels in 33 years, supported by the passing on of wage costs to prices. Additionally, a sustained momentum for wage hikes, including through annual spring labor negotiations, is pushing the BOJ closer to achieving its 2% price stability target. Furthermore, the impact of the U.S. administration's economic and trade policies is being closely monitored. If these policies do not cause market turmoil, a decision to raise rates is likely. The interest rate swap market has already priced in about an 80% likelihood of a rate hike, reflecting heightened market expectations. Against this backdrop, the BOJ plans to make its final decision based on its outlook for the economy and price trends.
In this way, while the United States is exploring the possibility of rate cuts, Japan is preparing for a rate hike, with the monetary policies of both countries reflecting their respective economic conditions and showing contrasting movements.