[MLB] Guessing FA Class of 2023-2024 [English]

I did the same thing last year and wanna post again this year bc I've been talking about this thing with my broski lol

The rankings are based on this article, https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-2023-2024," Free agent rankings: Top 25 for the 2023-24 offseason"

Here is a thing that I'll do: guess the potential landing organization with the comment(s) for the FA players in that list. (I feel the 20 is enough this season, so I skipped the players from the TOP20 to the TOP25)

Honestly, not all additions are rational, and idk what's in the players' minds, so my predictions are based solely on rationality. Also, Aaron Nola finalized an unexpectedly early re-signing, which undermined my prediction bc this event heavily affected my other guess. For this reason, I'd like to analyze Nola, his expectations for the future, and his contract.

・Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH (age: 29): Dodgers

Some ppl think he'll re-sign with the Angels, but I don't think so.  29 and 30 are way different ages, and I don't think he'd voluntarily jump to a team with little chance of winning a championship when he won't be pitching next year anyway. He's also well known for disliking the media, and I wonder if he'd be willing to join a team where he'd be the face of the team. Naturally, the Giants and Cubs would be the teams to bid for him, but I do think the Dodgers are the best bet. Kershaw may not have a good impression of Ohtani, who was forced to meet with him when there was virtually no chance bc there was NO DH in the National League back in the day. However, Kershaw won't be back until the summer, even if he re-signs, and that strife was long ago. Considering they didn't tender the QO over to JD Martinez, who has had a great season, the Dodgers have made no secret of the fact that they are serious about taking Ohtani. Ofc, the Giants would be an interesting candidate, and some might guess the Rangers, Cubs, etc. But I think it is the Dodgers bc they can win NOW and have tons of money to make it happen.

・Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (age: 25): Mets

Many media are predicting that he'll move to the Yankees, and the reasons for their predictions are quite reasonable. And I personally want him to come. However, I think he'll go to the Mets, also in New York. Tho it is speculation, there are reports that he has NO trouble signing with a team with other Japanese, which many Japanese have disliked for a long time. (This could be part of a possible information strategy by his agent to get various teams to bid on him and inflate his contract price, so careful consideration would be necessary.) Also relevant to this projection is that I believe the Yankees will likely take Juan Soto in the offseason. Ngl, given the ideal distribution of WAR between fielders and pitchers, having three very large, long-term contracts for starting pitchers is unbalanced. This would make it infinitely more difficult to spend salary elsewhere if a huge sum of money is invested in Yamamoto, so the Mets, who are the strongest financially and whose strategy of being in rebuilding mode next year but competing for the year after that is known from the Scherzer revelations, would be the most likely candidate in my opinion. The Cardinals and Phillies are also interesting candidates.

・Blake Snell, LHP (age: 31): DiamondBacks

I'm writing this article after the Padres owner's obituary. As such, I believe the off-season whispers of a significant payroll reduction have occurred, and the scenario to re-sign Snell has disappeared. His concerns are injury, walk rate, and age, but he hit the market with a Cy Young Award-winning, strikeout-twisting style that meditated completely on those side effects. The problem is that he doesn't seem to have enough caliber to rebuild around him. Therefore, he may not be a good fit for the local Mariners, who have tight purse strings and promising young starting pitchers (they already have Cy Young Award-winning pitcher Robbie Ray LMAO). The Rangers are the other interesting candidates. However, if the DBacks can add Snell to their already two-signature duo of Merrill Kelly and Zack Galen, the Diamondbacks' theoretical rotation will look much better.

・Cody Bellinger, CF/1B (age: 28): Giants               
                                          
Let's be honest. The Yankees would be the most likely. However, being the risk aversion that I am, I have no faith in his performance this year and have a strong feeling that he'll regress to his 2020-2022 form, so I don't really want to see him on my favorite team, so I'm going with the Giants with the CF/DH spot open. The scenario of re-signing with the Cubs is also very possible. Personally, I think the Cubs have been one of the creepier teams in recent years, and I'm not even sure if next year is the year they are willing to make a serious contender. It'd take a good deal of money to re-sign him, and if the Cubs are not willing to go all-in, they are not likely to choose to re-sign him. But not knowing where he stands makes it difficult to make any predictions about him.

・Aaron Nola, RHP (age: 31): *He re-signed with the Phillies.

The workhorse who has been so consistent in the postseason and recently has eaten more innings than anyone else, except Gerrit Cole, in the regular season has finally been rewarded. I had the impression that his work with the Phillies, along with Zack Wheeler's, had been underappreciated, but he finally got the attention he deserved on the big stage of the postseason and got the contract he deserved. My best friend and I were more than likely surprised that he decided to re-sign this quickly with the Phillies. Considering the large gap in the asking price with the Phillies before the season opening, my best friend and I agreed that the compromise between the two sides resulted from the Phillies compromising and Nola betting on his potential to win the World Series. Perhaps more surprising to me was the fact that one of the finalists and the highest bidder was the Braves. Considering that the previous highest FA bid for the Braves was for Marcel Osuna, the amount offered for Nola was far greater than that record amount. That's how much trust they had in Nola.

・Josh Hader, LHP (age: 30): Rangers

Throughout the season and postseason, the bullpen was not as solid as it should have been against the starters. An absolute closer like him would be a worthwhile investment for the Rangers in their quest for a second straight championship. Of course, the performance of bullpen pitchers, no matter how good they are, varies widely. If they perform poorly in the short term, whose runs can often make the difference between winning and losing, the value of the contract itself will inevitably be questioned. Even in the heyday of Diaz, Jansen, Kimbrel, Chapman, etc., there were short-term slumps, and Hader had a major slump when he first joined the Padres. Ultimately, it's all about the total, and a dominant pitcher like Hader is a necessary investment for a team that wants an absolute closer.

・Sonny Gray, RHP (age: 34): Braves

The sweeper functioned as an impregnable pitch in this year's regular season, and he did a great job of finishing second in the Cy Young Awards. He represented a great pitching staff covering the Twins' terrible lineup this season with a newcomer, Pablo Lopez. However, given his age (34), he would be the best fit for a team of any size that wants to compete as a contender without the need for enormous commitment. Rather than being an obvious hot commodity, I feel that Gray is a player who can complement the team's weaknesses. The Braves already have the same example. (Morton, for example, in recent years).

・Jordan Montgomery, LHP (age: 30): Dodgers

Since joining the Cardinals at last year's trade deadline, he has pitched at a completely different level than he did for the Yankees, pitching as the front starter of the rotation, and that has even improved with the Rangers, where he had a big postseason run. The Dodgers, who lost Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw as free agents and lack lefty starters, would be a good candidate. At last year's trade deadline, the Dodgers tried to acquire lefty Eduardo Rodriguez from the Tigers, but there may be a dispute when he invoked his no-trade clause. Hence, Montgomery, who has no particular grudge against the Dodgers, may be the best fit.

・J.D. Martinez, DH (age: 36): Padres

A player who had the misfortune of sharing a position with the GOAT(Ohtani) would have been offered a QO but never received it. However, his strikeout rate continues to increase, and there are concerns about where he might show a steep decline curve like Nelson Cruz's from when he joined the Rays until his retirement. The Padres are in no position to back down if they want to cut payroll, so Martinez is probably the best fit, with a short-term contract likely to solve his hitting ability.

・Matt Chapman, 3B (age: 31): Yankees

A regular Gold Glove winner, his focus is on defense, but his career OPS+ is 117, which means he also has solid offensive ability. His hitting metrics are also extremely good, so if he can produce around 4-5 WAR as he has in his career, $20MM would be a fair price. The Mariners' inexplicable trade for Suarez may be a strong case for re-signing him with his old team, the Blue Jays, who have one less third baseman to consider in a trade. If the Yankees did not sign Yamamoto or missed out, they could throw that money at him for a regular third baseman. However, with the major league infield congested with top infield prospects, such reinforcement would require a trade or other adjustment.

・Jorge Soler, OF/DH (age: 32): Rockies

The Rockies are infamous for making inexplicable reinforcements every year these days, led by Kris Bryant, who by all accounts is overkill, but the DH slot is open, and the Rockies seem to have a good matchup with him, who could be swapped at the deadline. However, he is worth more than a single-year contract and would likely get a 2-3 year deal.

・Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (age: 31): Orioles
As for him, he seems to have been a bit odd during his time with the Tigers, with the trade deadline trade rejection incident and his sudden absence from the team last season. However, the ball he throws itself is enough to be the second-best in the rotation. This season, the Orioles won the fiercely contested American League East Division with their overwhelming youth and depth, but when it came time for the postseason, their young starters were trounced by the Rangers' lineup. Reinforcement of ace-class pitching is a must for the Orioles, and they will probably sign one of Rodriguez, Montgomery, or Gray, among others.

・Jung Hoo Lee, CF (age: 25): Reds

Speaking of Asian centers, the Reds made a big mistake with Shogo Akiyama a couple of yrs ago. And Nick Senzel, who was competing with him for the position, has finally been non-tendered, leaving the center spot open again. However, Lee is much younger than Akiyama at that time, and he is expected to be able to hit 15 runs in a season in his complete form, and his contract fee will not be exorbitant. I would be very satisfied if they took a gamble. However, it is said that Korean players tend to prefer the West Coast where there are many Korean communities, so the Padres and Giants are likely candidates.

・Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF (age: 30): Mets

The last player on this list who could not come up with the best match with his potential team. Personally, I consider him one of the most dangerous properties. This is because I believe this year was very good. Assuming the hitting ceiling is what he showed this year, for a player with an OPS of around 115 and a BA of .275, paying $20 million a year for a 3-4-year contract for that player is moderately tough. The Mariners have a contact-oriented policy, but that might mean a contact hitter like Michael Brantley who can "leave a batting average," which is a bit out of line with his free-swinging, contact-oriented game. The Mets have successfully acquired solid outfielders such as Pham and Cana on the back of major reinforcements, so it would not be surprising if Gurriel Jr. signed with the Mets for an above-market salary.

・Shota Imanaga, LHP (age: 30): Giants

Frankly, he seems overrated. I don't understand why everyone talks about his success based on a mere sample of a few innings in the WBC. Even with the rising cost of starting pitchers, if he gets a contract that is on a par with Senga's last year, even considering the inflation rate in the US, it would be significantly overvalued compared to his past performance and with significantly higher expectations. If you ask me if he is in Arihara's class, he's not that bad, and definitely not in Ohtani, Darvish, Yamamoto, or Tanaka's class. In that light, his ideal would be Maeda and Kikuchi. This would be a sound reinforcement for the Giants looking to strengthen their starting rotation.

・Teoscar Hernández, OF (age: 31): Twins

A free swinger who has produced "quite a few" strikeouts in exchange for power. He's not the type of contact hitter the Mariners will be aiming for next year, and in hindsight, the Mariners may have thought they weren't getting their money's worth by not offering him a QO, even on a one-year deal. However, he remains strong regarding his batted ball-related metrics. I thought there was a possibility that the Twins, who have a bias toward left-handed hitters, would trade Kepler away and replace Hernandez in his spot. The Dodgers could also be in the mix, but they would likely spend so much money to improve Ohtani and the rest of the starting rotation that they would no longer have the cap space left over for him. The Mets would be another interesting destination.

・Rhys Hoskins, 1B (age: 31): Nationals

A year of betting on bounce-backs. I also think it's a one-year deal, as most predicted. I think the Nationals are in a strong rebuilding mode next year, and with Dominic Smith as a non-tender, the Nationals without an absolute first baseman is a great place for a bounce-back. I don't know how a contender team that wants a hard-hitting first/DH will take his blanks, but a rebuilding team can acquire him like a bet, and if it works out, I think he'll go to the team that takes him with the hopes of swapping him for a promising prospect at the summer deadline.

・Lucas Giolito, RHP (age: 29): Cardinals

I thought he was expected to be a key player in winning at this year's deadline. Then he went completely backward and became the symbol of a huge losing streak, which got even worse when he was waived and moved to the Guardians after the Angels completely gave up on the season. I think he will "NOT" go for the bounce-back and settle for a medium-sized 3-4 year deal. I think he would be the best fit with the Cardinals, who want multiple starters this offseason. The Dodgers would also be a good candidate, and he has the potential to be a consistent ace class from here on out, even at his age. I don't expect my prediction about him to be spot on because I can't read his intentions or the potential that the team sees in him. In fact, I don't really understand why he was called ace-class, and I keep thinking that he might be a contender for the third spot in the rotation when I look at his stats, etc.

・Yariel Rodriguez, RHP (age: 27): Whitesox

One of the Cuban players who made it to the U.S. by defecting using the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), which has become completely mainstream. If any of these players who left a high level in Japan were on the list to go to the Olympics or WBC, you get the idea of the defection, and he was one of them. Well, it doesn't matter. I don't have a good impression of Adris Garcia either. Baseball's performance has nothing to do with personality. That's why I'm not particularly interested in him. I don't have any feelings about him, whether he makes it big or becomes a bust. Many teams want relievers, so it's random because there's no way I'm going to be right in my predictions.

・Whit Merrifield, INF/OF (age: 35): Mariners

I honestly saw his name at #20, so I thought I'd leave it at this point; I think he's on the line for a 1-year deal, or at best a 2-year deal. Since moving to the Blue Jays, he looks like a different player than he was with the Royals, and I get the impression that he has lost a lot of his stature as a player himself. However, the market for fielders is thin, so there are definitely offers for him, who would be able to produce about average value at a low price. That's why I mentioned the Mariners, who are in moderation but are thin on outfielders and want a contact hitter. However, there are already super-utilities of the same type, represented by sub-level Dylan Moore and others, so the question is whether they would take Merrifield, who is a similar type and does not offer much upside.