米国株日誌'23; Excessive

Excess Savings = 予測を超過した貯蓄

U.S. Households still have $1.25 Trillion in excess savings despite lower estimates floating around during the summer pic.twitter.com/PnWJG6hjcS

— Barchart (@Barchart) October 16, 2023

予測ってなんの予測？と疑問を持つけど、理論値があるのだろう（後で調べる）Covid時の方がわかりやすい。

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/us-excess-savings-are-not-excessive

貯蓄に対してクレカ負債はどうなのよ？とNY連銀のデータを見ると$1.03T

Credit card balances increased by $45 billion, a 4.6% quarterly increase, and now stand at $1.03 trillion

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Revolving Creditは1.25Trillion

あれ？こちらで見るとブレークイーヴン。。。（貯蓄ないじゃん）

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=savings

リボルビング負債の例：

• Credit cards may be best for smaller purchases that you can pay off quickly. A 0% intro APR credit card lets you avoid interest charges for an introductory period — sometimes up to 21 months. However, anything that isn’t repaid by the time the promotional period ends will be charged interest.

• Personal lines of credit aren’t as common as credit cards, but some financial institutions may offer them to reliable customers. Personal lines of credit (PLOCs) are temporary and come with draw periods and repayment periods. They typically come with variable interest rates and you’ll only need to pay interest on what you borrow.

• Home equity lines of credit allow you to tap into the equity you’ve built from the home you bought. While credit cards and PLOCs can be unsecured debt, home equity loans (HELOCs) are secured by your home. As a result, if you don’t make payments on time, you could lose your home.

https://www.lendingtree.com/debt-consolidation/what-is-revolving-debt/#:~:text=For%20example%2C%20credit%20cards%20are,negatively%20affect%20your%20credit%20score.

 一時のダウントレンドが戻ってきている？

https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/about/sf-fed-blog/excess-no-more-dwindling-pandemic-savings/

金利と超過貯蓄のかんけい

https://learn.saylor.org/mod/book/view.php?id=32044&chapterid=10433