Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - 11/29/21

ジムクレイマーのMAD MONEYの文字起こしになります。米国株を英語学習を通じて投資したい方に向けて作りました。皆さんの反応を見て改善点や英語解説などい追加して行けたらと思います。とても有益な番組なのにジムの英語が難しくて悩んたのをきっかけにこのノートを作成しました。 聞き取れない部分もあるのでご了承ください。是非Podcastを聴きながら合わせてこのnoteをみれば、様々なアメリカ英語を聞くことでリスニング力を鍛えることが出来ると同時に、タイムリーな米国株投資情報を得ることができます。イイネ！と思った方は投げ銭いただけると嬉しいです。

‎Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer：Apple Podcast内のMad Money w/ Jim Cramer - 11/29/21

 Cramer, welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to America of below my fences can be some money. My job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate. So call me at one 800 743 CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer, the Doom Sjors. Well guess what they lost again. They forget this is a market that wants to be bought badly. Especially when you get a sudden dip. One of the averages are oversold as they were. That's essentially what happened here with the Dow rebounding twin through 7.8. Yesterday jumping 1.32% Nasdaq pulling 1.8% Pretty much way back to where it was before Friday itself. Now granted, the Dow and the s&p didn't go all the way back. And it's obviously conceivable that a country as large as ours doesn't already have someone walking around with the Omicron variant, the one that looks to be more infectious, not so dangerous but infectious than delta. Although it may not be more deadly. I think there could be some more selling when we get a new victim in this country. And that's because our markets have a bad history of reacting poorly anytime someone gets hospitalized with new very in this country. So our optimism is obscured, we convince ourselves that we're invulnerable, then something reminds us that we're not, and stocks temporarily get slammed. Remember when the previous administration repeatedly told us that things were under control and COVID was contained? And then it wasn't and then bingo. The good news for the bulls is that now we know better. The bad news is that a lot of people seem to assume that we can go right back to normal because it might not be as bad as we thought when stocks were selling my first Friday. I mean, it's somewhere in between. I wish I could say the same but not a single authority I know is actually making that more bullish argument. The only analyst I saw who was willing to go there for a moment is John John Hotchkiss from Goldman Sachs, a very fine analysts who laid out four scenarios, two of which were positive, one of which was Uber positive. So what is the right way to approach the auto con strain? I'm glad you came to me. Because I think what I want to do is go clinical. What I've learned to do through this whole scenario, is rely on science. And that means relying on Pfizer, which by the way, stock was down 30 Seems attracted to me and Maderna now we heard from Dr. Albert Borla, CEO of Pfizer, and Stephane ban cell CEO of modernity this morning on squawk I found myself thinking I sure hope these two people when Time Magazine's Person the year, because they're amazing. Borla reassured me that Pfizer not only has something in the works for Omicron, they also got some anti viral that you can take when you get sick. And they if they can pump that thing out by the 10s of millions, which I think they can, well, then we're gonna be a lot less fearful a lot more buoyant. As for Ben sell, he plans to be the first out of the gate with the vaccine for the strange just like he was the first out of the gate and 2020 When everyone was dumping stocks left and right. I trust these two gentlemen, as much as I distrust the people running the World Health Organization, the CDC, the FDA and the NIH, a verbal alphabet soup of experts who seem like they're actually in way over their heads. When I say trust the science that doesn't lose thing by the science, but it doesn't mean by the stock market, but it most certainly means do not panic once again, do not panic.

3:55
Those who panicked and sold in the maelstrom That was Friday, but already already got a kick me sign on their forehead on their back wherever it is because men they regret it. I think we heard one loud shoe drop Friday and we're still waiting for a softer shoe. That's what will fall when the CDC recognizes probably look, some mythological playing came here from South Africa six or eight days ago with a bunch of people who likely at the Omicron variant is now spreading not unlike what happened in the Netherlands. When we no doubt get hit with the CDC inspired dip. That's when trusting the science will really come in because it will give you the confidence to buy stocks a second time into weakness. Now if you stick around, I've got two shopping lists one list if you think we're going back to business as usual, that's the so called buyable dip that we already had. And another list for those who are worried about a slowdown and that means a Bible dip that's about to happen. Before I get into what you should buy though, you need to understand one of my cardinal rules why nobody ever does make a dime panning and what really occurs. What's the schematic that makes it so it's always right. Or Reason number one is good things can still happen. Something people always overlook. Well, that's hard for Anyone do acknowledge into the teeth of selling. The drug companies are using very sophisticated methods these days that allow them to blast out new vaccines and new treatments at an unbelievable blistering pace. Artificial intelligence has rapidly except accelerate the vaccine development process. It takes days what used to take months or even years to do you have to solve some Friday acted like this new variants somehow had Pfizer and Modernisms are totally on the road. It's just stumped, even as they hadn't even said anything yet. And that's fear pulling the trigger, not rationality. Second, the governments around the world had to act decisively because most of them are viewed as too slow the first time. However, that doesn't didn't mean we get the dreaded lock down here. Even as that was on every seller spread my advice gets on the street. Sure, we'll have more mass bandits, and they'll only be obeyed by people who are already vaccinated. made more bring back some social distancing, but if it gets bad enough, and actual lockdown, not the course please know that not and of course, that means we'll likely have a robust market but it's not the kind of thing that should trigger you know, huge decline, especially given how oversold stocks were coming in. Hence, no panic. No Don't Don't panic. And I don't know how many times I can say it if I don't mean there's a lot of things that I have to just like dress in the Investment Club. And this is a key tenant as I put out when I did several Bolton's on Friday, telling you not to panic glad I did that third reason not to panic, today's action. Now we have seen repeated comeback rally some which last only to the morning, others that lasted all day give you ample prices that were higher than what you got in any any day one of the sell off like today. Some of that's just buy the dip philosophy work. But a lot of it comes from recognition pattern recognition that the market overshot on Friday because trading was too thin couldn't handle selling this thing. Let me give you the best view really the best example. And that's west Texas crude was around 80 bucks a week ago, our President led a coordinated round of Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales to tamp the down the price. No dice didn't work at all bulls that lapped it up stocks went higher. But one day of the Omicron variant took more than a 68 member of the US government go buy back that strategic reserve oil is good short, might not go lower. Somehow despite the repeated irrationally well remember when I traded negative prices last year was that if crude gets clubbed in the market still goes down with it. The idea is that oil is a good barometer for the broader economy. But that's only true in general terms. On a day to day basis oils more of a barometer measuring how long or short the futures traders are, which is almost entirely divorced from how much oil we're pumping out of the ground. And more importantly, the demand side how much we're using. I say forget oil prices until the oil stocks or the real tells him they barely got hit at all. final reason I don't want you to panic. final reason why panic doesn't work as a method of investing. There's no systemic risk. Look, though there are rare moments like in 2008 when the fate of the Republic or at least Western Finch system was held in the balance, and this politician seemed totally clueless. There was a real threat to the banking system when it might have laid waste to the bond market and your paycheck, possibly taking out the whole financial industry, including your ATM. If then Fed chief Ben Bernanke. He hadn't done exactly what Jay Powell did early last year. He said we're not going to let any big institutions fail. If Bernanke he had so simply said that a few months earlier, we probably could have avoided a lot of pain and heartache. But he thought he was overstepping his bounds. This time, thankfully, got a Fed chief who's not asleep at the wheel who's much more creative. We won't let this new variant knock things off kilter, not the President Biden would allow that to happen either, although only one of these guys seems completely in charge and unfazed by events. And it's not the guy in the Oval Office. That's it. Kudos to Biden, for working on the supply chain makes my job easier. I'm sick of talking about it. Bottom line, the last two sessions were yet another demonstration that panic is not a strategy for you. It's not a strategy at all. Am I worried about the Omicron variant? Sure. I'm not an idiot. But we've seen this movie before. And we know how it ends. Let's go to Bill in New Jersey, please, Bill.

8:52
Yes, Jim. My question is, what will GE offer current shareholders when it becomes three independent companies?

9:03
Oh, boy, I'll pay a bill a lot of people have now. I do not like this breakup. I think that's wrong. I think people didn't like the combination either. What you need to see is you need airlines to do well. And that's not going to happen with this with Omicron. You need to see the power business doing better and not know what's gonna take to get that better. And you see healthcare doing well and I want a piece of healthcare, I would buy that particular aspect of the company immediately. So what you have is you got three plus three equals, you know, we got one plus one plus one equals three. And I think that people felt one plus one plus one is equal four. That didn't happen. I'd hold one. Did you hear? I think Laurie copes doing a good job. Let's go to the CCO. Let's go to Dominic in New York. Dominic. Hey, Jim boo. Yeah, boo. Yeah. Happy holidays. And thanks for all your help right back atcha. What's going on? With the holiday season rapidly approaching?

9:52
What are your thoughts was fed at

9:56
all right, that today there was a nasty downgrade of a stock I like very much which is you PS Why do I say it was nasty? Because right here we had counsel Malan what course it was via zoom. And she was saying listen, we're not going to miss for Christmas. Get some guys still felt heartless enough to take Grinch to her. I'm not a Grinch itis I don't I don't have that disease. I think UPS and FedEx UL by the way, I think Fred Smith is good. He certainly I mean, got the engine. You know, his son is the coach of the Falcons. I quit an OPI passion though yesterday. I love the Falcons. Anyway, okay, the doomsters lost again. Okay, just were proved the panic always fails. You must believe in that concept. Even if you don't believe in what I'm saying here. Panic, not a strategy, or money tonight. The Omicron variant wreaked havoc on the markets at the end of last week. So do you want to brace for slowdown or not? I'm gonna review a list of stocks that are worth buying, if you think so. Then on the other side of the coin, I'm gonna use names to watch you could benefit from the Quick snapback that already started today. And amid Cyber Monday, can we please go to the biggest proponent of digitizes for business? Find out where the Black Friday was as bad as they think? I think it wasn't Domus mice was in the shop by instead of cramming.

11:08
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12:12
Don't fear a shutdown? Fear a slowdown. As I said at the top of the show, a shutdown is just off the table. But an Omicron and you slow down replete with dreaded maths and social distancing from where we were just a week ago is much more likely. So what do we do in a slowdown situation? Like I say every night there's always a bull market summer. And in a slowdown, this whole bunch of them she has slid on might be bad news for a host of industries. And it will be but it's true for what we call secular growth stocks. That's the stocks of companies that don't need a strong economy in order to thrive. The most obvious example so the cloud software stocks because businesses won't stop migrating to the cloud, even if the economy takes a hit. Hence why the tech heavy NASDAQ war today and got all the way back to where it was. If you didn't know every any better Friday didn't occur. Now that means our number one Omicron slow down pick is actually pretty easy. It's like the purloined slip letter. The stock is Amazon. And by the way it had begun deserved validation even down Friday. This is a company that does well when people are scared to go to the mall. And it does well as more companies embrace the cloud because Amazon Web Services is indeed the dominant player in cloud infrastructure. Plus, some morning research pointed out Amazon's a price taker mean they can get away with raising prices here. How many of you? How many of you would balk at paying more for Prime thoughts. Next slide on winner Microsoft. And we know that products sold well during the initial lockdown and that didn't let up during the the subsequent reopening where the Delta variant panic I expect continued to offer upgrades at the enterprise level windows 11. Here we go. Especially as cyber protection is now paramount and previous versions aren't as insulated against attacks and they aren't being a gentleman. Plus we know Microsoft's Azure cloud business has tremendous growth and they still can't make it Xbox for heaven's sake to meet the demand just as Gamestop meanwhile Microsoft Teams pops up on a Windows PC whenever you open it nothing sells like systems that you can't get rid of when your download or write your computer in some stealth upgrade that in the middle night I can't stand there is Netflix. This is a nice story. Right nice sob story that did well in the lockdown they didn't shock me well in the reopening as a terrific new content that brought in new subscribers worldwide. Fourth, how about alphabet? How about it this thing is a total jargon. I did better than any other Fang stock during the comeback I bet it will continue it's winning ways. The big guys let's say that leaves Apple and Facebook is delaying the symbol now for the metaverse Apple I always say own it, don't trade it but if you don't own it already now right now you should wait wait after this run is too dicey to pull the trigger at these levels. I think you'll get a better chance as to Facebook now meta platforms I think will do fine, but it's not a true slowdown stock like the beyond big capital works. Who else wins in a slowdown Sometimes you can't overthink it. You have to say the utilities now we're so blessed to have money to get our regular quarterly lowdown from American Electric Power, that terrific electric utility with a 3.75% yield Wow, much better than treasuries. When we spoke to the CEO just a couple of weeks ago. He told a good story and the stocks currently at three bucks in the mid range between its high and its low. Just as important the Fed won't hit us with a rate hike during a slowdown which means it's hard to go wrong with AP even though when I walk around that no one ever says Jim thanks for AP while it's doubled and also give me a great yield the whole way through what about the other traditional slowdown winners? Well, you know you got some health care plays you got to get into I like UnitedHealth Group UNH Dell stock because it just reported an excellent quarter Best in Show for the health insurance get the stocks to them looking push from its highs. I still like Centene but UNH back to cheap after that fantastic quarter went up by some UNH Oh go away. We just go buy a fractional share. If the stock prices bother, you just think fractionally now let's get to the crux of what works here but requires taking a little more risk. The companies that work in a slowdown yet will turn into Penn Jada's if we beat the Omicron very too quickly, and start hearing about how the Federal Reserve needs to slam the brakes on the economy good. Or just the word taper which I am now banned from the show. Okay, I don't want to hear taper ever again. Right unless it's involved with a tapeworm with one of my dogs, of which I hope you don't get. First the homebuilders the best reason to buy against the bet against homeowners. And this is simple. Is that right? Which is now strictly off the table, the man in charge that Chief Jay Powell has said over and over and over again that until COVID is beaten, it's hard to raise rates so far has been a heck of a lot better than any public health figure about the need to maintain vigilance on the issue. There's the homeowners thrive in the situation. Plus, they do even better when fear of a new variant is forcing businesses to let people continue working from home. We're now starting really long. Hey, I'm getting a lot of millennials are saying listen, my boss called me so I want you to connect over. Plus take a hike. I never told any boss in my life to take a hike I always said

16:57
right? Anyway, this may be the variant that breaks the proverbial camel's back with remote work, right? I mean, we're not calling we're not going back to the office the office is is dead. It's a It's Omicron Center, which is more infectious obviously, even if it might not be more lethal. So here we go. In other words, people are going back to the office and many of those who are renting or thinking of leaving are now going to move to the suburbs of the country. And by they can start looking for a house and get something by the spring, which will position them well for the next school year. Now the number one home builder in terms of stocks is pretty easy. Actually. It's an arts giant lindora which put up spectacular numbers with a stock that's been unrelenting is up more than 40% veneer, though it's down seven from its high. That's the opportunity. We're now in the part of the year with the cliche winners when takes over the whole market. money managers want to show their investors that they were in the best homebuilding stocks and that was a winner. I was more concerned about winner before the very end because I feared rates going higher. I don't know. Long the same lines Toll Brothers is up 48% And only a few bucks from its high. They've repeatedly told me this is the best they've ever seen the housing business. Keep in mind that common came during the Great reopening tolls a nice mix of nationwide aspirational homes and a fantastic land bank CEO Doug yearly masterful manager, second Hybris Omicron winner if you're working remotely then guess what you need to secure home office. Only Palo Alto Networks PN ws one size fits all solution. Again this cybersecurity kingpin just reported a terrific quarter so no guesswork mystery. One of the great things about where we are right now is we just got all the course so they can't screw up. You want to go rescue a good retail, which is run up on a reopening spike. But there are three retailers that can make out like bandits here if we get a COVID and do slow down. I'm talking about Home Depot, Lowe's and Tractor Supply. All three reported diagnostico my earnings although initially Lowe's got left behind before the market reconsider the quarter the stock hit back. Well Lowe's has finally caught up I think it's still cheaper than Home Depot. Because to Marvin Ellison has more blocking tackling do before Lowe's is as good as Home Depot, especially when it comes to attracting professional contractors as customers. As for Tractor Supply. All right, we have the right selling season for this rural Focus Chain. That's the spring. But betting against this monster has been pure idiocy because it is the only real play on people not just moving to the suburbs, but going full time zoom land, which is the country Tractor Supply has the benefit have not yet been discovered. By snobbish money managers. They take one look at the parking lot and don't see a Benz or BMW or Tesla. They assume there's no buying power. Of course in reality, they won't even go look at the park lines too far outside Manhattan. Farmers take around going all in now I'm going to whim syndrome. Now we have to hear from the great Laura Albert CEO just two weeks ago we were in San Francisco and we know the last quarter reflecting continued strength strong sales as the home as office thesis plays out as well as new business to business kicker added bonus bizarrely, it's the cheapest stock in the group has come down since it reported bottom line. These are the slowdown winners, but if you think that's too negative, okay, I got a bunch of quick bounce plays after the break. Let's go to Betsy in California back say

19:59
hey, Jim, good to hear from you again. Ah, yeah, I have your action alerts, and I've been following you for years in years. Jim,

20:09
here's my question. Second home sales are up. 42% actually in California, they're up even more than that, which is surprising to me. But they are and, and large items in terms of homebuyers are up 42%. Okay, given given that, given that, is it conceivable that our ah, whose chart looks horrible right, can meet the 16.73% over the prior third years results they haven't missed once. And I'm wondering if you think that Friedman can do it.

20:49
I think we've been 10. The one thing we don't want to do is be trapped by the quarter. I think Friedman's got a five year trajectory and buying some now buy some later makes sense. But buying it now is very good. And what's so great about action alerts is I'm now at CNBC. With the CNBC Investment Club. It's a little different, you know how it's better. Right? The shutdown were taken off the table, but a slowdown is likely and we'll let you say there's a whole bunch of bull markets in the slowdown. Now coming up. It was party was as bad as it gets when it comes to the threat of Imran Khan. Well guess what? I'm revealing some stocks though, which went up today that could benefit from the true market bounce not a one day wonder, hey, then on Black Friday, Shopify reported peak sales per minute at 3.1 million across merchants worldwide. And I'm hearing more about how the company is supporting the purchase this holiday season. And we're gonna get it right for the company's top brass. Yes. How well cyber one niche been doing and the Omicron variant didn't just book mortgage. There's people all over the world. It's the same question. When will this all come to an end? I'm using history as my guide to answer scrape. And I got to taste some probably some people gonna be outraged. I go care

22:08
I just told you what works if the Omicron variance has a slowdown mode. But what if the market barely skips a beat and last Friday, give or take a percent is as bad as it gets. If the Omicron freakout turns out to be much ado about nothing. First, you have to circle back to Travel Leisure. I like all the cruise lines, but only one of them is committed to 100% vaccinations, that's Norwegian Cruise Lines, holdings, and CLh. Bizarrely, its stock has been hammered. I think you're getting a buying opportunity here. CEO Franco Rio has already bought on the best doctors he's taking on the governor of Florida in the name of passenger safety. Best of all, Norwegians got reservations and because you can't get on their ships without being tested. It's the safest place to be going. This was the ultimate opening trade before. And I think it's even better now. Second way to win American Express XP, a little over a month ago, this was $189 stock. Now it's 157 and change. And that's it thanks to both the fintechs Oh, and Friday sigh Muckrock beat down. If you believe this new variant won't really matter, the economy won't matter how much people go out and American Express is exactly what you want to do. If you're more risk averse, you can buy some here, and then buy more once we get the first confirmed Omicron cases in America. And yes, the travel stocks sell off again. Third, every single money manager should have an envelope on their desk that says open in case of case loads going down. When you open the envelope you see a sign this is by Marriott hence why the stock word that this is another one where you want to wait for the first Omicron case here because it should have given you It shouldn't give you a better entry point. It's already gone up too much. Now we already know what the pattern looks like people buy the area when they're feeling bullish. They sell it when they're panicking about the pandemic. I think they'll buy it again. And once they realize a lockdown is off the table. It's going to be a go to name so wait for the next piece of negative news to generate a pullback that is for therefore much below here, maybe two or three points. I shouldn't say much who the points below here and then you can pull the trigger. Forth if you think the economy is going back to normal. How about two retailers that had phenomenal earnings just within the last? Let's say 10 trading sessions, Macy's and American Eagle when Macy's reported that poll quarter they talked about having a separate business that would be like a curated version of Amazon Marketplace. Who knows where it would live in the organization of the Bloomingdale's blue Mercury a separate entity like we have a brick and mortar office back in 2000 no idea but I do know this Macy's had a fantastic work and Torstar coming back to Herald Square their flagship store will be making a fortune. This market wants an Amazon without the ads with a lot more curation LS Stitch Fix for all I know it was the real real at its doppelgangers like Rent the Runway we all get them in one place why? All these could be Macy's new on my marketplace. None of them would cannibalize their core business I think would be huge, especially if CEO Jeff kienet decisive role of some of those digital operator operators. Holy cow this could be juggernaut Okay, how about at American Eagle Outfitters. The pound Jane had the great misfortune. porting around symptoms the gap, but they've got a fabulous disenfranchise much better than gaps and arguably the most exciting concept at the mall, which is airy. Plus they've got enough infrastructure to handle any expansion online and offline. And you want to PST resistance, I need you to go read the the piece by Matt boss last week about how well American Eagle did versus the competition competition. He is a JPMorgan is the best retail analyst in the business. And he's got behind this one in a very big way, which means he won't let go until it is much higher, which tends to be what happens when he gets by a name. That's why I think American Eagles fourth by what else works in a world where the new variant doesn't do much damage to the economy. Let's think about what was happening before Omicron ford motor was headed to 23 to look at the least. Because we're getting closer to a future where Ford's The only major competitor to Tesla, a scale they would like to say regular viewers know I love Tesla. And that hasn't changed one bit before it's got ridiculously cheap stock and unconscious that's about to get rerouted up when the electric f150 comes out. In the meantime, what's happened since the quarter, let's see only a massive refinancing of high cost debt that saves a huge amount of money. And they in Emily solar stock and rivian, the newly public electric truck maker and they're gonna make a fortune from that they can plow it all in to e v we own 40 American Eagle for my travel Trust, which can follow along by joining the CMC Investment Club. Now we write about these things endlessly. Because it's important to teach you how to do the research you need when you're managing your own money, which is my goal. I have to tell you the feedback we're getting from our bulls in the club in general has been spectacular, and I couldn't be more proud. So just sign up. I've added a lot of new features to my old trust Chronicle. I'm very excited about them. And the work we're doing on these retailers I think is spectacular. But now let's focus on the other aspect that the club deals with stocks we got roll, where it's already too late to sell makes more sense to be patient. One of the things I like about the club I don't just tell you what's good that leave that to other managers. I tell you where I screwed up and the first is Disney. Now Disney stock has gone from above 200 When the great reopening trade got rolling in march down 147 Today we mistakenly started buying it too early and lo and 70s What's happened here first the Theme Parks got derailed by delta then the company came up short on Disney plus subscribers. I say they're both bad news for Disney stock. But you know what? How bad that's a question. I mean, this deserve BAM these moms treatment

27:19
has Mickey Mouse become toxic? Has everyone decided to own Marvell tech? And sell Marvel Comics? For ready we give me a break here. It's Disney rated bottom. Oh, I'd be lying if I tried to go out. Truth is I got no idea when the pain will stop. I mean, it's a House of Pain. It's a mouse house of pain. But when you look back on the moment in this moment a year from now okay, I know that's it. That's like 365 days from here. Do you really think you'll fight feel like an idiot for buying Disney gas more than 50 points from its high? I doubt it. Theme parks will go back to being full some of the cruisers Disney plus isn't static, they'll figure out a way to draw the Netflix like numbers. Plus they can fix up ESPN is going to make it a gambling destination as well as a sports station is that so hard? No. Next one is even more dicey. It's called Wynn Resorts, the childhood trust port this one and it's been crushed and not once but twice. First of the Delta variant then from the Chinese crackdown on the wealthy. Remember, the book of wins business is in Macau, which is the Las Vegas of China. However, the stock now trades at a level where you're practically getting the count for free. Maybe you think this valuation makes sense given the China rest of the criminal who just ran big junkets from the mainland to Macau. But I'm a believer in bargain hunting and the junk of business was never as important to win as it was the other guys, it's the most popular casino in Vegas, it's the most popular Macau at its current valuation, which is $9.6 billion dollars, you're getting Macau for free. So count me in, you can pick up some now. And then when the inevitable sell off, when we get our first confirm on Khan Omicron case in America or China, there's no two for one. Here's the bottom line. I'm not necessarily saying the economy will be able to keep on chugging without overheating. Now, it's not a new variant. But it's a real possibility. You need to be prepared for it. But you also have to be ready for when a NASDAQ goes all the way back to where it was Thursday. That could be some good business, owning V stocks and Indiana and Jim, thanks

29:10
for taking my call. You're quite welcome. What's going on? I just have a question from your notes from your Investing Club from this morning. I don't get why do rates going up, tell us that the markets not going to lock down? The variant isn't going to stop commerce blah, blah, blah. I don't get it.

29:30
No, that's a great question. And and you know what, sometimes we're too glib. We've tried to explain this. And we can never stop explaining it. Right, which is that if you think economy is going to reheat In other words, the economy's going to get stronger because the barriers can be put in this place like we did the others. Then what happens is the economy researches when economy researchers there's more demand for money and therefore rates go higher interest rates, because that's what money is measured by and also the Fed can raise rates. So that's all kind of, we should never shortchange that whole food chain, and I promise you're recording Few Investment Club to get that point out as much as I can. I can't say it enough, right if the Omicron freak gal on Friday is as bad as it gets, and the economy keeps on chugging, but it doesn't overheat when they got the names. These man these are like, terrific. I'm not giving you the top of the market. I'm giving the bottom of market anyway. Now you got it much more mad money, who my excuse was Shopify, the Cyber Monday in full force. I'm hearing more about how Shopify is empowering merchants this holiday season including stay calm, Mr. Press, then what's going to take to get this pandemic in the rearview mirror. I'm giving you my take it the latest developments with the emergence of the Omicron variant. He may not like it. Good. And oil costs rapidfire tonight's edition, the lightning round, so stay with Kramer.

30:55
This Omicron variant has to be a big deal. You want to own what worked last year during the worst parts of the pandemic you want to Shopify, the software company that helps small medium sized businesses set up their own e commerce platforms. Now we know they just had a huge Black Friday $2.9 billion in sales across their system up 21% versus last year. That's especially impressive when you consider that this was the first black Friday on record when total online sales actually decline year over year because we couldn't really shop in person in 2020. Now Shopify report a quarter that some analysts recorded is like a month ago, but it didn't really do we have a stock please management reiterated the full year forecast. Still Shopify stock is now down nearly 200 points from its higher week and a half ago. Does that make sense? Let's check in with Harley Finkelstein. He's the president of Shopify to get a better read on this holiday and how things record Mr. Finkelstein, welcome back to Mad Money.

31:44
Hey, Jim, so great to be here. Always a pleasure to be on your show. Sam later

31:47
here, Harley, because I need you to explain something to me. A lot of people said Black Friday was weak. I looked at your numbers. And it may have been weak at the other guys, but it's yours. Because we can shop vi

31:58
Yeah, it's it's it's quite unbelievable. Actually, you know, numbers are still rolling in. But my prediction for this Black Friday, Cyber Monday weekend is that direct to consumer brands and small businesses will actually be the winners. Black Friday certainly set the stage for the weekend. So you mentioned this already. Global Sales, we saw $2.9 billion on Friday alone. That's a 21% increase since last year. That's more than double 2019 Black Friday. And so I think, you know, we saw in 2019, merchants crossed the $2.9 billion sales mark for the entire weekend. And on Friday, they did they did that in just one day. Now Cyber Monday is already off to an amazing start. We don't have final numbers yet. But Shopify merchants have now surpassed last year sales of 5.1 billion globally. And we've seen peak sales per minute, every single per minute today as high as $1.5 million a minute, or 13,000 orders a minute. So to me, Jim, what this what we're seeing here in real time is modern capitalism is on full display. And it's quite clear that consumers favorite brands are now using Shopify. If you go to the live map, anyone can check this out. It's data stories that shopify.com I'm looking at right now. We're seeing about 1.4 million sales happen every minute on Shopify, and about 12.5 1000 orders per minute. And so I think it's clear Shopify merchants are actually outpacing the industry at these astonishing rates. And they continue to do so during the biggest shopping moment of the year,

33:20
I'll ask a logical question, why doesn't it overload your system, your system break down?

33:25
Look, part of what Shopify does is, is we want to be the retail operating system for the future of commerce. And in order to do that, we have to be resilient, we have to make sure that whether you're just getting started at your mom's kitchen table, or your homegrown success stories, like all birds, or figs that are now publicly traded companies, or you're doing some of the biggest flash shells on the planet, you can do all of that with Shopify. And so that's one of the reasons that I think so many people choose us because you can get started with us. But then when you become an incumbent, or the leader in your vertical, you can stay with us.

33:53
It looks like to me, I shouldn't be surprised because of how good you are. But there are places where I didn't think would be leaders London, huge. Yeah,

34:04
yeah, we're actually you know, the way we view the future of retail is number one, retail in every single surface area, whether that's on place, like tick tock, or Instagram, or Facebook, or Pinterest, or more recently announced a partnership with with Spotify, so that, you know, these amazing artists can also sell products, but it's not just necessarily on different surface areas where we think commerce will happen, it's going to happen internationally, we think the future of retail is is going to be default global. The second you hit launch on Shopify, you're able to sell to a global audience. And that's what brands and that's what businesses are going to expect. And you get that on Shopify right now.

34:37
One of the things I love about your company and you Harley is is that when I look at what's top trending, I don't know it and that to me is the victory. Some of these top trends that people don't know you tell us what they are right now.

34:49
Yeah, so I think you know, we obviously we you and I love these these great names like Auberge GymShark brooklinen Bombus skims. Those are the brands that have become consumers favorites What's also interesting is that we've also seen companies like Lego and Mattel and Spanx and Dockers and Stetson, these very traditional nutritional brands that are now also coming to Shopify as well. But some of the things that we're watching right now, whether it's partake foods were brought on the show a couple couple weeks ago for companies like phenomenal or lively, these are going to be consumers favorite brands in the future, and they're all getting started on Shopify, they then become consumer favorites. What's also interesting to understand is because the barrier to success is so much lower, and because Shopify provides them with the infrastructure, we're seeing brands able to grow out pieces that have never been seen in retail ever before. You look at Jim shark, for example, this global powerhouse that wasn't around 10 years ago. And now the rivaling the likes of Nike, that is all happening on Shopify. All right,

35:45
well, listen, Harley, you've got a great piece, this is going to be really helpful because this one October 2021, and it shows strong bet of marketplace, Amazon 39%. Shopify 8.6%, if you had to eyeball what you're seeing, do you think you could be picked double digits here?

36:02
Look, we are growing faster than industry as a whole. And that's not just because we you know, we think we have a great product and great piece of software, but because the way retail is going direct to consumer is not a fattie will be steady state consumers, especially as holiday season are voting with their wallets to buy direct from brands. They love this idea of conscious consumerism where they want to buy from brands whose values reflect their own that is happening that will be steady state and so we're gonna see more and more I think more market share shift towards independent retail. They're the future and and as you call it, you know, that's modern capitalism. That's modern commerce, and it's all happening.

36:34
Look, I don't care where the Black Friday was up or down. I care about modern capitalism winning and I know the winning side here and see what you're saying. Harley Finkelstein, you are always a joy. I welcome to the show show anytime you can be president of Shopify. Good to see you sir. Can see a gym? Guys, look, we don't necessarily care whether we break records. We care which companies are breaking the records. I like Shopify man money's

37:07
coming up, a storm is coming. So give us a call. Kramer's got the answers to all your burning questions. The lightning round is next

37:26
is no lightning round is over hard you just keep dying to get Jeff in New York Jack.

37:38
A crema Boo Boo Boo Boo. Boo. Yeah, what's up? Hi, I'm looking at

37:45
MTTR

37:48
everybody loves 3d. I've never made any money in 3d. I'm gonna have to take a big passage that's that's already moved too much Shelley and California chalet?

37:58
Ooh, yeah. Jim. Happy holiday.

37:59
Oh, same to you. I love the holiday season. What's happening?

38:03
Yes, I'd like to know Oscar help. Oh, FC? Oh, geez.

38:07
No. I just, you know, sometimes you need what I call raise on debt. I learned that in French class. You don't bring up care Jack. And I see no raise on debt for this health insurance company. We got enough health insurance companies is all we need. I know that sounds callous. But we don't need these guys. Sorry. Let's go to Ben cat and Virginia van cat. Hi, Jim. Good evening. What's happened? I would like to hear your thoughts about

38:36
one of my favorite insurance companies right now. This company called lemonade.

38:41
You know, it's a good company. I just checked it is about Oscar two. These are good coffees. Oscars got great data. Lemonade has got some terrific pricing. But that doesn't make for a great stock. And that's the problem. Oscars a great company, not a great stock. Lemon is great company, not a great stock. I teach on this investment club that there's a difference. And most people don't seem to know the difference. So we have to teach. Let's go to Liam Washington Lee. Booyah, Jim. How you doing, buddy? Good day about you, partner. Well, it's not raining out here in Olympia, Washington. So I'm happy. I had not even know and that was a report. I kept on that. I had to tell me all right. Okay. What are your thoughts on B in

39:22
GE? Oh,

39:24
yeah. Bi NGO. And Ben stock is my name. Oh, there's not much there. There's not much there. And you know what? It's a good spec. You know, McKee? I actually like CRISPR. I do. I'm not against the genomics. I like CRISPR Alright, let's go to Joe in California. Joe.

39:41
Thank you for taking my call. Oh, you're welcome. Good. We have a nice position itself gene and F convert merger. We have a nice position and Bristol Myers that pays a good dividend. But what is the outlook for Bristol Myers going forward

39:58
and what should one do with their

39:59
holdings? All right well for my child trusts by Charitable Trust sold it about 10 points ago and the reason we did was we just didn't see enough. I don't want to say excited but that's wrong but we just didn't see enough to merge that that investment over others that we felt in the drug group and I feel the same way. I felt it when I was it 2.8% yield of 3.59 I'm with you sir. Remember as stocks go lower than our quality companies the price means it should be reflecting that it's better, better value and that's how I feel about Bristol now. You don't want to sell Bristol 3.5% yield. I need to go to Roger Connecticut Roger.

40:37
Hey, James. first time caller longtime listener of the CNBC good at it What's up so thanks for educating guys on investment strategy. First of all, I believe in education and today I'm calling about a Bangkok I bought in 2015 I'm very good advice. Market cap is about 3.8 billion P E ratio buses in price to sell below five the stock is seen a robust drop in the last few months. And I need to know from you if it's a buy, sell or hold I'm talking about track in both ch

41:08
okay, I really go out on my put my neck and hope that the year this. I think Chang is actually a buy here. Okay, I think it's come down enough and that lead gem is the inclusion of the

41:21
lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by TD Ameritrade comm. And how do you protect your portfolio from the cheerless burying variable that's spreading through markets like a Grinch grammar expands his list of ideas next.

41:59
With the new Omicron variants sweeping the globe, how do we finally put an end to this pandemic? How do we save lives and get business back to normal so everybody can put dinner on the table? Simple. The federal government needs to require vaccines, including booster shots for everyone in America by say, January 1, there are still some things that need to be done at a national level. And this is one of them. But as we brace for another wave of new deaths from a virus that has killed more Americans than World War Two, or even the Civil War, it's time to myth that our government has lost the ability or the will to make our people do the right thing. Nobody wants to be the bad guy. So we've allowed a pastiche of uncoordinated health organizations to dictate an on again off against a series of measures that mostly just leave us baffled and confused. We haven't centralized the issue to the point where the White House actually seems to take responsibility. Let's see. First was the CDC and then the FDA, the National Institutes of Health, mostly coordinating policy through talk shows, then we left vaccination policy to individual companies. Now it's Toothless OSHA going back and forth on what's allowed in factories, but nobody with any power saying the frontline workers need to be vaccinated. It's just plain wrong. And most of us are sick of it. Even as a vocal anti Vax minorities always grabbing the mic. This charade must end the government must require vaccinations not of this group or that group not company by company not cruise ship by cruise ship or airline by airline or governor by Governor. The buck stops at the White House. Some of us are old enough to remember when we were told we had to get a needle stuck into our arms because of some disease that was so scary waiting. We're afraid to talk that disease was called polio. No one knew how you got it. But you were scared to go to a place where anyone might congregate a swimming pool Park. Then we got a vaccine vaccine. It worked and President Eisenhower said we would end polio. He pulled it off because he didn't give us any choice. Soon after, as if the needle were too hard. They come up with a church you know, they've been the scientists at the time, and we lined up and took them to mine tasted like maraschino cherries. Yeah, like the domani fruit cocktail. My mom served but only better. Lord knows what happened if you didn't partake, but back then anyone who refused to get vaccinated would get ratted out immediately, because we knew that person could hurt other people. The common wheel was a cotton will now engage in similar struggle with COVID and Eisenhardt would be cast. We have immunocompromised people who are incubators for every variant to come walking around Wofully unvaccinated that's psychotic. We have companies that have tried hard to get people vaccinated now backing down. We have governors who want to be president by grandstanding on a foolish states right issue, the right to get sick and get other people sick. So it's time to admit that we have to go to war against COVID require vaccination universally, at the military run it. If you don't want to get vaccinated, you better be ready to prove your conscientious objector status in court. And even that you need to help in the war effort by staying home until we finally beat this thing. Then you know what would happen? Oh, there A new variant, some unvaccinated part of the world, then someone flies here from there and some of us will get a flu. We'll take a pill from Pfizer, once it can ramp up, it's anti viral, and it'll be like influenza. Now it will kill some, but not many, maybe 50,000 The average flu deaths for the last decade, not 500,000 until the federal government gets serious to start to acquiring vaccinations nationwide. You better get used to more COVID Very free gas like we had last Friday. They represent our Sorry, no good all our fault future and it will keep being our fault until our leader stop bending over backwards for the not so conscientious objectors. I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise try to find it just for you right here. Oh man money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow. The news was Shepard Smith starts now.