MAD MONEY 文字起こし 13JUL21 Turning In Homework, Child Tax Credit Beneficiaries & Off The Charts: Oil

ジムクレイマーのMAD MONEYの文字起こしになります。米国株を英語学習を通じて投資したい方に向けて作りました。皆さんの反応を見て改善点や英語解説などい追加して行けたらと思います。とても有益な番組なのにジムの英語が難しくて悩んたのをきっかけにこのノートを作成しました。 聞き取れない部分もあるのでご了承ください。

是非MAD MONEYを聴きながら合わせてこのnoteをみれば、様々な州のアメリカ英語を聞くことでリスニング力を鍛えることが出来ると同時に、タイムリーな米国株投資情報を得ることができます。　イイネ！と思った方は投げ銭いただけると嬉しいです！

窶皿ad Money w/ Jim Cramer: Turning In Homework, Child Tax Credit Beneficiaries & Off The Charts: Oil on Apple Podcasts

0:32
Cramer Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to America. I'll be able to make friends. I'm just trying to make you some money. My job besides just entertain but to educate, teach perspective. Call me one 800 743 CBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. Okay, we know inflation's raging right now we hear from all the companies that buy raw materials from fatty oils you eat to light sweet crude that you burn, natural food or natural gas. It's all soared in price. This morning. We've got a consumer price index number that actually it documents. It documents what I call the house of inflation with 5.4% increases twice the headline, the average is barely reacted down. If you've got 107 points as a beat slipping point three 5% NASA declining points represent most of the time the NASDAQ was in the black. I mean, no, it's important because we certainly saw this one coming. Still prices for almost everything to consumer buys have gone up from us cars because automakers don't have enough semiconductors to boost production of new ones, to packaging to freight, and so many so many other was. So okay, what do we do? What do you do when you see the biggest inflation spurt in 13 years? Do you run for the hills? Do you panic? Do you dive to get under the desk as a shooting sample by big tech because it is immunized against the two scourges that wall street's worried about rising rock costs and the possibility of interest rate hikes from the Fed. If j pal suddenly gets cold feet and decides to taper even tighten and have the mythic plan. I don't think it's gonna change the stance but there are a lot of money managers disagree and they're more important than I am and we see a number like this. Well, what they sell out other things. And they buy because they want to be in house of pleasure. Let me put it like this. There are some huge patterns that keep repeating themselves in this market. And if you get a sense of them, and I know I can help you seeing them. It's much easier to pick winners. It's the worldview. It's the stock whisperer. This spring we had a furious rally industrials, you heard lots of people talk about the market pivoting from growth to value but that was a canard that was a dumb way to look at it that confused you that was just Wall Street jibberish. The reality was that beaten down cyclical stocks or industrials. Were coming back thanks to resurgent economy. Take a look. This is the prototypical one Freeport nipt brand FCS largest compromise on earth is really a value stock. Well wait a second it was certainly a value stock here. When it was traded 12 bucks last August. Okay, you got me. But then it rallied to 40 cents hardly value yet the people on TV kept saying it's value value here, stupidity here. More accurately, it's a boom and bust stock is hostage to the broader economy. And I've known that I've lost a lot of money on it when I got to. I got too complacent, which is what people did when I was up there. See, as long as the Fed was eager to keep interest rates low Freeport in its compadres could keep climbing. But then on May 12, we got a similarly hot CPI number, and the industrial world got obliterated, they really haven't recovered. Since then money has flowed back into the highest growth stocks. Why? Because money managers figure that the Fed would have to slam the brakes on the economy to stamp out inflation and hyper growth tech stocks are actually what works best during a slowdown because they do well. Anyway. It's all about anticipation here, not a concurrent reaction. This is a real bad feel to me. Sure enough. We got the same scenario this morning. I'll be it with a slightly higher CPI number and what happens, those same tech stocks worth from the get go because people remember the pattern from May 12. At least first before giving up the gains, again was sky inflation was pretty baked in the last hour was what I call sloppy, I think the Tech's can resume their climb in the near future. Now, I want to look at some of the winners today. Okay, because they really tell you a lot. I'm gonna start with alphabet, the parent of Google. All right. Now, we don't talk about this gem of a stock nearly enough, even as it's up 45% for the year. Some of that's because the principles the principles of painfully shy saw his practice because they don't typically care about ginning up good publicity. They don't think it does anything for them. Think about what happens to alpha when there's inflation. Well in gas prices have skyrocketed, right? You agree. But does Africa have an energy problem? I want you to do this after the show Not now. Go to the Google search page you visit a dozen times a day Check out the bottom no one looks at it. carbon neutral since 2007.

5:05
I don't think they have an energy problem. Does Africa have a problem with plastic and packaging? So sky high? No way. See they got an asset light brain heavy business model. How about rising freight costs? Oh man they hobbled So, so many copies are short truck drivers like all those consumer packaged goods place? Do they have to deal with the port slowdown? Maybe they got some important materials waiting on ships from China? I don't know where or where one of the cheap ports has been struck by COVID? Of course not alphabet barely ships anything. Are they bothered by the fourth measure of the kill missing paint. Now they don't paint anything. I've never been out there. I mean, a lot of them Walser, even though they're not even painted. It's what I call a bonanza of non inflection. Then there's Microsoft, which broke out today for much the same reason. I mean, you think something good happened, you know, it was more of a celebration. Nothing, as Microsoft has barely any meaningful warcross Now we know that conagra the packaged food company had to cut numbers this morning. Why large part because of rising costs, especially for edible fats and oils? Now, I am not seeing that kind of pressure at Microsoft, maybe in their cafeteria. Now we've heard many companies talk about a shortage of truck drivers. I got Microsoft says any drivers except for maybe people, you know, guys shuttling people around the campus. How about it's got a fabulous brand, perhaps maybe the best in the world. best customer service. You know, it's got the highest squirrel that's up. Goldman Sachs reported today and they spoke lovingly of their partnership with Apple on their credit card. Then later the day it was reported that these two have a buy now pay later play all the people a buy now pay later, and it's in the works. I think Apple's got a lot of upside with minimal downside. I like Apple Microsoft though it makes lots of harbor which means raw costs are an issue most of the materials. But Apple's customers love their products so much that the big wireless carriers have to subsidize the costs as they fight each other for market your use t mobile's up again today. Have you noticed that he he never does anything? I wonder why that is random Steve. Never mind. That's the old days. Not much in the way of suppliers at Apple. They've been loyal and large customers for tons of expensive materials, but their products are seen as necessities not luxuries. Which brings me full circle to the actual winner today to PepsiCo. Ramon laguerta Smart fella this morning, the soda and snack maker reported a monster truly monster quarter. I was quite surprised when I saw it sort of six or 3am. I said gotta be mistake got to go through this no mistakes. It did have plenty of inflation throughout its entire supply chain. So then how the heck could Pep have a good quarter? Simple, because the other thing besides tech that works are beloved brands that allow them to raise prices ever so slightly and pass those higher costs on to the consumer, the stuff will still sell. And that's a big reason why pepco, barely 2% today, and I don't like the moves in alphabet, Microsoft and Apple that was gonna have some staying power tomorrow, I believe numbers have to go higher. Still, not everyone is like PepsiCo, many companies can't afford to pass their higher costs on to the consumer because people will rebel. And that's going on all over the country. But at the same token, not everyone can handle sudden rise in interest rates, which is what many money managers are betting on to, even as I think it's very unlikely. So here's the bottom line. If you want one industry that's immune to both inflation and a Fed induced slowdown. Well, it's big cap tech. Meanwhile, we've heard from a dozen copies so far in the last few weeks of the kind of pre earnings season. And nearly all of them talked about how they had to spend lots of time and money going were going digital. So if you're really worried about this red hot inflation number, why not just buy digitizers I'm going to Ryan in North Carolina is Brian. Jim, how you doing? Brian? I am real good. How about you?

8:52
I'm doing great, great. Um, I bought from Oracle last month when you tweeted about it. Since since then, I'm up 13%

9:01
should I buy sell or hold? No, you gotta hold on to that baby. I gotta tell you Safra Catz, whom I personally congratulated because I am a huge fan. I said you got to come on now. Now she's a publicity shy. Jesus cel. But she's so darn smart. And what a job she's done and the cops Oh, by the way was terrific. So I say you stay long. That one. Let's go to Nick in my sister, please, Nick. Jim. This company recently reinstated its dividend and with people hitting the roads this summer for summer travel is now the time to buy a Cracker Barrel. The answer is definitively Yes. I don't know if you ever been to one. I used to go to Walmart. I dropped my kid off to playing sports. And I always had that. The nella that the pie. It was a cheesecake pie. No, it was an actual apple pie with the lair of cheddar cheese and then a giant heap up in LA. And that's how you get to 210 pounds. Okay worried about inflation by the digitizers home Everybody know what Boston sparks have been attacked in this market. But with so many companies making deals, what separates the winners from the losers? I'm taking a closer look then wondering what's next new all patch ongoing off the charts drilling into the energy sector, and 39 million households are set to receive Child Tax Credits this week. But if it's anything but Child's Play when it comes to try to make use of money, I'm going to tell you which stocks can see a boost from the unsuspecting stimulus and you're gonna know why. So stay with Kramer.

10:32
Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow at Jim Cramer on Twitter. Have a question? Tweet, Cramer hashtag mad tweets, send Jim an email to Mad money@cnbc.com or give us a call at one 807 43 CNBC miss something head to Mad money.cnbc.com get an edge invest like a pro access CNBC live streams around the globe, unparalleled access to CNBC experts actionable investor insight and ideas start your free trial today@cnbc.com slash Pro.

11:21
So last Thursday, we got calls about not one but two different spax. And although both of them were from serial SPAC issuers, I didn't. I really didn't know enough about the deals to give you a considered opinion. You deserve that. So I promised to do the homework and we circle back. We got to be very selective about spec stocks because so many of them frankly, are garbage foisted on the market by greedy scammers, but there are some genuinely good ones you can find them and you know what if you're willing to do the research that might be something of value. So let's get to it. First mark in Florida wanted to know about je s acquisition holdings to G saw the second spat created by Goldman Sachs which reported today, many other new this one deserves a closer look. Why because I remember that GE saw GE is age one ticker years ago, long before this back intact became ubiquitous Goldman raised the original GS acquisition holds. This is backlit by Kramer fav Dave Cody, formerly the CEO of Honeywell and also my erstwhile neighbor in New Jersey. The original GS acquisition was created in 2018. They took their time finding a deal, which is what you hope for, but after a year and a half of searching in December 2019, they merged with a really interesting little industrial company called vertiv. And that's vrt IV that makes power thermal and information technology infrastructure solutions. The original GS acquisition closed on the verge of deal right as the pandemic hit last February, and Dave Cody became chairman of the combined company. Although Berta initially got hammered by COVID it went on to become one of the best posts backstories around. Companies put up great numbers in the stock spent the last 15 months chugging its way higher from 13. When the deal closed all the way to 27 and change right now. Dave Cody continues his winning ways. In short, the original GS acquisition wasn't some bogus get rich, quick spec was the opposite. It's probably a textbook example of a suspect you've done right? The initial investors who really tripled their money, and everyone who bought it along the way has a nice profit. So when Goldman Sachs created notice back last summer GSI acquisition holdings to they had a lot of credibility. Just like the original dispatch took its time searching for a deal. Then a little less than a month ago, they found one just acquisition to announced a merger with Miriam technologies that's a medical and industrial company that makes equipment for radiation detection, measurement, monitoring and analysis. They're binary in from a private equity firm keeping the CEO and bringing in an industry veteran as the chairman Larry Kingsley used to run Paul Corp, the filtration company for selling to Dan her in 2015. Really smart guard now mirrors the number one player in the vast majority of categories were participants. I love that company gets 40% of its sales in the medical laboratory space with another 40% coming from the nuclear industry. The rest comes from various industrial end markets. They spent the last few years diversifying away from nuclear power smart move because I I worried that industry is dying, I'll be dying slowly. Even though it's it's pretty good, but it's just not gonna happen. There's nothing spectacular about Mirian. It's a real company with consistent mid single digit organic growth, steadily expanding profit margins very unlike the recent SPAC deals we've seen but reminiscent of what the original GS acquisition holdings did when important vertiv given how that one worked out, you know what, I'm pretty darned optimistic about this one. Goldman's once again found a CD business to buy then they'll use the cash to keep the balance sheet installed experience industrials chair, of course, if you like me and there's no need to rush to buy GS acquisition holdings to the stocks been stuck at 10 bucks, and it can't change. And it's been there for a while now. Oh, it's not going anywhere. But you got my blessing to buy this one. Just keep in mind that it might be dead money until the deal closes but boy, this is how it's done. Okay now not kisses person the next one but I've got a real problem here. Sebastian in Florida. Yes about Churchill capital Corp five, that CCV and I said I get back to now this is the fifth back from Michael Klein's Churchill capital. He's actually done eight of them at this point. The thing about CCB though, is that they haven't announced any deals yet, although there are some rumors. But before we get into specifics, let me give you Churchill capital spap record. The original Churchill SPAC merged with a company called clarivate and analytics play is focused on scientific research and that was back in 2019. Since then, the stock has doubled. Now it's clearly success even as clarivate spin allows you to perform this year. Unfortunately, since the spec boom got rolling, Churchill capital's deals have been a lot less successful. Their second major spec deal involved the healthcare tech company called multi plan that's been a disaster with this back now trading just blow seven bucks. Churchill capital to merge with a digital learning outfit called skill soft in a deal that closed about a month ago twirl it and draw a definitive conclusion. But it's not a great start with the stock currently nine and cheese cheese. Then there's the Churchill capital for that same who's lucid motor deal. Here's a stock that skyrocketed to around 60 bucks in anticipation of lucrative electric vehicle merger. They only saw the terms of the transaction and the stock community punched in the mid 20s and broke so many hearts. Why do I bring up these past deals? Because I was asked about Churchill capital five, which at the moment is just a pile of money with a manager. If you invest in this thing, you're betting on Churchill's track record. In terms of his namesake, this feels less like World War Two Winston Churchill and more like the younger Churchill Yes. The man who presided over the disastrous glibly campaign, one of the worst military blunders in history. Pick up Mel Gibson movie. Now last month, Bloomberg reported that Churchill capital five was in talks to merge with thrass CEO. That's a company that acquires private label brands for small business owners, operator Amazon that is backed by private equity firm Advent internationally no advocate, they're good guys. And this story says it could be worth $2 billion, maybe 2 billion plus. Well, that could be a promising target. You should never ever buy a spark spec before you know the terms of the deal. A rumor is not enough. I mean, remember what happened with lucid motors please, you got to misread. Here's the bottom line. Oh, man, do you ever have to be selective when you're dealing with the specs and that means you don't go near something? That's still just a pile of money, especially when the sponsor has what I call a mixed track record. Oh, and pardon me for not knowing these off the top of my head. There sell so many sparks that I can't possibly keep track of more for the lightning round, but

18:14
you wouldn't ask if you didn't care. And if you care, then we have to care to

18:24
see NB C's workforce Executive Council, is a premier group of C suite Human Resources executives from leading companies across the country. It offers a members only portal and chart plus exclusive industry contract. With access to breaking news calls and digital networking experiences. The network and resources HR leaders need now applied to the workforce Executive Council at CNBC councils.com slash WEC.

19:01
Today we got the red hot CPI number up 5.4% in June but more than half of that comes from either weaker comparisons versus last year or you know what the rising price of used cars now remember that used car figures all about the semiconductor shortage tamping down the production of new cars. So used cars quote that not moonga though everybody was worried about commodity inflation, and for the most part that story has joyously collapsed. more evidence the Fed chief Jay pal is right knows what he's talking about when he says this is all transitory and there's no need to raise interest rates anytime soon. Remember, he wants to put as many people to work as possible, despite today's smokin CPI number that we talked about the top job. That's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of Carly Garner. She is a brilliant technician. She's the co founder of de Carli trading the author of higher probability commodity trading if you want to understand how this is done, and she is our resident commodities expert on Mad Money. We've had some stunning commodity rally Sure, but one by one we seen them go bust as producers scramble to bring more supply to what's clearly an overvalued market just as it should be. I mean first it was lumber remember that was abused it's given up all its gains, then copper in early May wow peak then great soybean, wheat, then historic rally and lean hog futures and come to just sharp selling. Finally they got the golden silver silver Reddit favorite after last month's spending. Right now, Gardner points out the crude oil and natural gas are really the lone holdouts. But she thinks oil is less the last man standing and more a dead man walking. This year we've seen a classic boom and bust commodity cycle. And as far as she's concerned, there's no reason why Oil should be immune to the same forces dragging everything else down. Now I told you over and over again, the high prices are their own cures demand structure, like mice get expensive companies boost production and that new supply pushes prices back down, especially as demand kind of peaks when oil goes up so high. At the moment, we've got a situation where oil producers are still being disciplined about production. While the industry has experienced a post pandemic demand spike. Now Garner is adamant that we're not seeing an end or any organic oil shortage here. Instead, the major oil producers from OPEC to the shale plays here in America have created this artificial shortage. They've been holding back on drilling, also holding back from completing wells. But the Haro goes more likely is that these copies open up the spigot, Garner thinks that's already beginning to happen right now people don't see that sort of the most corporate she's looking at it. You saw operations laid off many field hands in January, Joe Biden was sworn in because they knew a democratic president will be less friendly to fossil fuels in the drill, baby drill Trump administration. But now many of those oil workers are being called back because when prices rise, more supply always comes in and I have also noticed that the rig count starting to go up. Now let's go to the charts here. Okay, it looks complicated, but give me a second. This is the oil futures that front month futures December, December 21 futures, December 2022 futures and December 2023 futures. Notice the futures contracts with the most distant expiration dates, alright. also have the lowest prices. See that?

22:15
front month futures are in the mid 70s. But December 2023 futures are in the high 50s. So just imagine it kind of like this. All right. What is this about? It's called backwardation when the present price of the asset is higher than the price far in the future. And when you see backwardation it's a classic bearish tell although I have to tell you candidly, we've had this for a long time and it hasn't worked. She's saying now it's going to means buyers and sellers believe the current lack of supply is temporary. Gartner has another way to look at this. The near term futures plummeted last spring, and then serves this year. That's the price the world is watching. But the more distant futures contracts tend to be more steadier, much less emotional. I've often asked why don't Geez, these big users lock these prices in and that's exactly what they're doing. By the way. That would be like airlines on top of the backwardation in the futures market. Check out this chart of the seasonality in West Texas crude. I think this is very compelling. Historically, oil tends to peak in July. All right. Wait where we are right now. It was updated. You would bet that that would be that basically we're past the peak of summer driving season Karna thinks that we could pull back crew put a couple back to Earth right now. Over the last 15 years oil prices have had a very hard time holding their summer gains beyond mid July. This should be I mean, I don't want to say today No. Right now top right now look at this look at the weekly chart when and this includes data from the CFTC is what's known as commitments of traders report or the cot report. This is the data that shows house how small speculators large speculators and commercial hedgers are position in the futures market. I find it very useful. We care about the large speculators that's really the ones that we want to key in on Okay, institutional money magic. Right now the big money is already aggressively bullish on oil. And we don't like it when there are too many bolts because it means there's no one left the bot large speculators hold a net long position of roughly 500,000 futures contracts now get this. That's the most positive they've been since 2018. Garner points out that historically, the oil market tends to run out of buying power when you get a net long position in the 500,000. Let's go for some proof here. Going back to 2015. Large speculators have gone above five or 1000 get this firing 1000 net long contracts four times, right. Here's one. Okay. Then there's two. Now the one yes, we're talking a $16 client in 2017. A $14. decline in 2019 March $38 decline last year. The one exception is 2018. more oil prices held up just fine to large bank speculators pull up a 700,000 net long position. So this You still go higher, right? And then oil collapse $35 a barrel. Right now what we're going to do is we're going to zoom out to the monthly chart. All right? Well, COVID shutdowns create an environment of extreme volatility last year, Gartner says we've seen this pattern before in 2015, the price of crude dropped sharply from the $60 and only bottomed in the high 20s. About eight months later. That's disastrous, okay is really important. So you're looking at it took oil two and a half years to recover to the mid 70s. In 2018, number 22. Strong again, at which point that the price swiftly collapse back to the high 30s. I know it looks confusing, but suffice it to say that it doesn't last. As Gartner sees it. The action over the last year and a half is pretty similar. Crude dropped from the 60s the low 20s. And in went negative remember that net one day cash Morgan, although this breakdown only took four months rather than the eight like in 2015. Then within 15 months, we rebound to the mid 70s. That's where we are right now. However, despite the fast pace of the rally, all right corner thinks the outcome could be similar to what we saw in 2018. She says there's a significant ceiling of resistance at the 79 $80 level right here. Meanwhile, the relative strength index or RSI, that's an important momentum indicator is approaching overbought levels. As soon as it crosses that orange line. It's overbought, we're kind of betting that that's what's going to happen. That's rallies walkthrough on out of juice for oil, the relative strength index hasn't been able to break out above the 70 since before the financial crisis. So we're right at the cusp of where we are in the last 13 years work. Even then things didn't end well. It this cillian $80 a barrel holds. Garner's it back in minimal pullback to 60.

26:47
The current for support, if oil falls below 60. Well, she thinks it could be moved toward 40. However, if she's wrong again, you know, remember technicians always deserve this. If she's wrong, we break out above 18 and corner bleeds. The next target would be 105. Remember what I said you're going to start hearing widespread chatter about 100. That's that. Okay. Here's the bottom line. And I think is is really important because what she's really making is just a huge call the top here, the charts is interpreted by Carly Garner suggests that was about to run out of steam. producers have been disciplined about holding off on new supply, including the Saudis and Russians. But the higher the price goes the hardest is for them to resist, including the Permian. That's in Texas, which is why oil rallies tend to be self defeating, and Garner's betting that the self defeat begins, right now. Shawn in New York, Shawn.

27:38
Hey, Jim, I have a quick question on Tesla. Sure. With companies holding Bitcoin in a corporate Treasury, taking a dip yesterday, and today, do you feel in the near future tested will fall below the 600 level but the bitcoin price we're down and you want to quote?

27:53
Well, you know, I kind of wish you weren't doing all that stuff. And the stock got hit because of it, as you correctly point out. People are getting nervous about that particular position. I am with Tesla, because I think they make a great car. I think the Y is doing well. Goldman Sachs had raised numbers today. I do think that that Ilan is a genius. I've been with them at a very low level, and I'm sticking with it. Tonight's chart is thinks oil could soon run out of steam when I say suit. I mean, like Now, remember, all rallies do tend to be self defeating. Okay, much more money. 39 million households will begin receiving monthly bank deposits you're in? Where will Paris be spending their tax credits? I've got some ideas that can make you money, then I've got a message for President Biden, when it comes to China, you're not going to want to miss it and it's not sweet. And all your calls ratified. Right system the lightning round. So stay with Kramer.

28:57
I don't get it. I mean, nearly everybody in this business acts like the stimulus is over and done. The checks are spit, expand unemployment benefits run out at the end of the summer, if they haven't been cut off by your governor already. That's all she wrote. Correct.

29:22
Arguably the most important part of the stimulus package actually only kicks in in this week, the massively expanded child tax credit that will give millions of eligible families some big checks from now through the end of the year. I don't even know people know they're coming. And this has got huge implications for the stock market. And for the back to school season. How much money are we talking about your Okay, the child tax credit was rolled out in the late 90s. Going into the pandemic eligible parents, we get $2,000 per kid per year. As part of Biden's rescue plan. They raised that substantially it's down $3,000 for each kid six and up and 30 $600 for each kid under six. They also overall the programs The parents would get half of that money in cash as an advance on their taxes through six months of monthly payments in the second half of the year, which is now while the program is means tested, it cuts off for couples making more than 170,000 a year, those checks are going out to a huge number people 39 million families with about 65 million kids. So that's 88% of the children in America. In other words, 10s of millions of parents are about to get $250 or $300 checks for each kid. And those checks. Well, they every month to the end of the year they last. This is possibly the biggest social program we've seen in decades in this country. It's like something that of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society. Many democrats in congress want to make it permanent, at least extended 2025 I don't know if they had the votes. From our perspective, though, what matters is that families with children are about to have a lot more spending money courtesy of the federal government. And it's coming right in time for back to school season. So we got to ask where does that money go so we can make money. Right now consumers are already in great shape. I mean, they've been spent the last year paying down credit card debt and stockpiling cash. You heard that? From jamie diamond at the JPMorgan conference call today. As the world goes back to normal, there's tremendous pent up demand for power. Once those Child Tax Credits clear. Most families Well, they got the necessities covered, which means we're going to start seeing discretionary spending. Now I've got four ideas that I think work for you and work for you tomorrow morning for companies that you benefit from the child tax credit fuel back to school season. Remember we were down today and that's the opportunity we're not overbought anymore. I really liked this and we're going to start with one that's frankly so obvious and we know really well Mad Money. We start with Levi Strauss, the iconic Kramer fav denim and any other year Levi's would be already be a quintessential back to school play. Twice a year Piper Sandler puts out a teen retail survey and according to at least the latest one, denim is having a huge resurgence among young people. We've heard the same thing from JP Morgan's Matthew boss. He's the best real retail Andersen business who has really been laser focused on the importance of this tax credit the economics of retail, or his CEO chip Berg told us when we spoke to him in April, the brand is hot. Sure enough Levi's report again last week, it shot the lights out living a monster 14 cent earnings beat off nights and basis higher than expected sales to even better better match. We gave the trip forecast for the second half. That's about 28 to 29% sales growth as the world goes back to normal. Now chip seemed even more almost 100 unnaturally bullish about the long term denim cycle than I've ever heard. And when I interviewed him last week on squawk on the street, he was on Brian's in the food in his enthusiasm Plus, the company's been a major beneficiary of what I'm calling waste inflation. If you spent the last year and a half stuck inside wearing sweatpants, you may have found out that you sized up well let's see. Let's see when you try to fit your old jeans any work in more business for Levi's waistlines changed on 35% of us during the pandemic. Isn't that extraordinary? This is a company that emerged in pandemic stronger than ever, even though they just reported a magnificent quarter the stock barely budged close to 28 bucks on Thursday. It's now 2878 for that great core song for just 19 times next year's earnings. This was ahead of the stimulus. I think you should buy it right here right now. Before those checks, start hitting bank accounts. Remember we just got the numbers last week there's no new info. I like that. Child Tax Credit winner number two, we've had him on the show. It's called American Eagle Outfitters. Now we started recommending this one last October thanks to the aforementioned mad boss, since that American Eagle scored more than 140% I know you think you missed it. I think the stocks had a lot more room to run. I think it has just plateaued and get ready for its next move here. Which is why we recently bought it for the travel trust, which you can fall by joining the actual plus.com Club. I got a call next week though excuse me a major focus for me, like Levi's American Eagle has a ton of denim exposure. But more importantly they do own one of the hottest brands in retail I am talking about area that's ar e as your kids if you don't know about it sells women's apparel and underwears cozies. They also have a popular new sub brand for activewear. The aptly named offline management's been guiding for Arie to hit 2 billion in annual sales in 2023. But it looks like they could hit that number within the next 12 months. These guys have bad quarter after quarter ball. Even though American Eagles had a monster move the stock remains cheap given I think it's tremendous record consistency 16 times next year's earnings estimates it's a steal. Next up one I don't talk about nearly enough but I do a lot of work is called Dick's Sporting Goods. kids aren't just going back to school in person. They're also going back to sports, which means their parents need to buy them all sorts of athletic equipment. While Dick's did a great job of adapting during the pandemic. The stocks been on fire since the great reopen near to cold. We spoke to outgoing CEO Ed stack and his successor Lauren Hobart real smart fab one. They told a terrific story. Since then the stocks up a cool 46% and porpoises Dick's reported the best quarter of any retail we follow near the end of May. The company earned $3.79 per share. While she was only looking for a buck 12 same store sales were up 115% of combined well year over year. Remember what happened last year, management nearly doubled their full year earnings forecast. So while this Talk is run tremendously. I don't think it reflects the strength of these numbers, especially statistics sells for just 12 times earnings. I'm calling it a buy, buy and buy. Finally, if you want to bet on the child tax credit without trying to pick a particular retailer and you want income, I'm going to give you the gold standard. How about Simon Property Group? The real estate investment trusts that own some of the best class a shopping malls. Why on earth, remember the class B malls really suffered? The A's came out on top, Sam is actually in better shape now than it was before the pandemic. There's a last man standing at that we're both consumers and retailers are consolidating around the best physical shopping destinations. Plus some assignments been joining up with other mall owners to buy up some of the worst tenants out of bankruptcy. I like this. For example, last year, they joined forces with Brookfield asset management by JC Penney, those struggling stores were huge headache for assignment. Now that company can do whatever it wants when they teamed up with authentic brands really smart guys are to do some of the same things with forever 21 which at one point was so hot Brooks Brothers classic Lucky Brand Oh my god. I mean, remember that day and Eddie Bauer Lucky Brand jeans By the way, I think it's finally time perfectly. Then Simon recently picked up a bunch of high quality malls when it closed on the acquisition of talvin tn last year, just in time for the great reopening and they renegotiate that deal for a better price. I think people will take their tax credit, okay, and spend them at the wall which probably bombed to sign doesn't hurt that they boosted the dividend last year and this is why I really meant the sizing. Juicy 4.4% yield. Now I liked that one for all people seeking income. The bottom line for the next six months parents all over America will get a series of child tax credit checks. And I have to believe a decent chunk of that money flows to our favorite retail place like Levi's, American Eagle Outfitters, Dick's Sporting Goods and a real estate investment trust Simon Property Group.

36:54
I would pick one up these are too good to ignore with this money coming to all those Americans. Stay liquid. Just chill again. J the chill man is in the house. He's happy the lightning round is coming up when bad bunny returns. And then the lightning round. Are you ready Steve? Johnson for Tony implanted Tony. Hey Gary, thanks for having me. I'm a longtime fan but I've been with you since day one loving me. Okay, I got two kids sitting next to me that have resilience. Brazilian puppies and their names are Mr. Kill

37:50
and T bone and they want to know whether we could keep when AMD and Blackstone set a triple triple player I like Boston very much like do like the house and play I think when I keep buying a fraction alerts does seem to go down every day but I don't get an Advanced Micro is a screen. Why? Because it's always feels best to close with quarters. Very good Chad in Wisconsin, Chad. Hey Jim, big boy. What's going on for phone caller longtime listener? First time a long time of Go ahead.

38:22
So question is a very unique situation right now with all the micro and macro economic drivers for steel prices at this point in time. I recently rang the register as you have mentioned do during sizeable profits. What's your third term and save two to eight months? Thoughts on the ticker CL fleet.

38:42
Two major steel producers in this country we've got new corn we got Cleveland close. Now both of these stocks have been under pressure. Why? Because people feel good about the rollover and we didn't get the instructor package. I think listen sweet. It sells at like four times earnings. I feel bethlem steel sold at two times earnings two years before it went bankrupt. Clearly Chris is not gonna have that happen four times earnings. I want to buy the stock and put it away. Not in Connecticut.

39:04
Hey, Booyah, Jim. Thanks for having me. Oh, it's my pleasure. What's happening? So I was looking for a good dividend yielding stock I stumbled upon this company called golden ocean. The ticker symbol is GOG L. Right drug

39:21
boats a shipping company or weekend shipping company and I got to tell him while it's up too much in the 2.5% yield ain't gonna help you if we decide that there's a slowdown in World Trade market masters mark.

39:34
How's it going, Jim? Not bad. Thank you for asking. How are you mark? I'm great. I have a stock for you. Okay, I'm wondering if it's a wuya or a buy. stock is CRISPR crsp CRISPR therapeutics. bit of both.

39:53
Now it's very expensive to start continue to hydrogen 100 plus points. A lot of people can't take that kind of downside pressure, but I think you can buy I have position because I do think that it is always been wondering to be whether it be to take over stock I need to go to Ross right now. Ross in Texas Ross. Jim, how are you doing? I'm doing well. Ross, how are you? Doing all right, longtime fan of your show. I'm calling about lamb research. Okay lamb research is that come the brainchild of Rick Hill and sold the velis a clam and I've got to tell you I think Tim was just doing great job. They are the solution. Didn't they the best intellectual property when it comes to making semiconductors and I'm gonna say by the great deal I wish they'd split it but they're not going to interest interest in Maryland address. Hey, Jim, big Maryland Bujar to hear from me and my son Miguel. Best state. I'm not good. I thought man was gonna be the best state I didn't think was gonna be Virginia. I thought me Maryland. How can I help?

40:50
Well, I got a stock waist energy company. COVID ticker symbol CVA. Want to know if I should buy in on it?

40:56
Yeah. Good to speak good. yielder I think it's okay. I am not going to give it the high side. I think that there's other other plays that are better. I would even buy Chevron. I would I swear I buy Chevron. Whether I buy covanta and Chevron's try and of course trying. Hey, can we have one more place? Yes, we're gonna get a fracking Michigan frack.

41:17
Jimmy chill. I'll be sending you a fully vaccinated flu. Yeah. Well, I really like that. Thank you very much how we make some money together.

41:26
Okay, well, I know you're a huge fan of capital $180 billion market cap p 38. What are we gonna throw any money at p days with a 6 billion market cap and a PDF?

41:35
Yeah, PJ is pretty good. Now used to be I used to go to BJs. But I'm such a Costco guy. But you know what PCs is bought. And that ledger is the conclusion of the

41:48
lightning round is sponsored by TD Ameritrade. Coming up, the China issue is complicated. But Cramer cuts through the noise and asks Washington the one question investors need answered. When it comes to China, will it be stick with Kramer and stick with Mad Money?

42:23
I was getting dressed this morning. Listen to the usual crackdown stories out of the People's Republic of China. We don't hit me like a ton of bricks. We need a consistent policy for dealing with the Chinese government. Right now. I'm not sure what we have. Are we trying to pressure them into actually respecting human rights? Are we pushing the government to let our businesses compete fairly, rather than forcing them into joint ventures with Chinese outfits, some of which are made up? Or we warn your companies about Hong Kong? Like they really need that warning? What is that going to be doing? It feels a little like that scene in Goldfinger where we're on a laser cutting table asking the Chinese Communist Party if they expect us to talk, and they should back that. No, they expect us to die. Except this time. We don't know anything about operation Grand Slam beyond tonight's All Star game. Maybe there's something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. But it sure seems like our government's doing nothing to respond to the crackdown in Hong Kong, beyond beyond a patchwork of half big sanctions have blacklisted companies. It is on the White House can't decide whether to stand up to China or to play nice so that our companies don't lose business over there. Unfortunately, we can't really do anything about Hong Kong. It's been part of China for 20 years. But now the Communist Party they want Taiwan to recently President Xi corporate complete reunification. Right at the top of this big speech in the middle of this. It sure feels like our government has no serious contact with the PRC. I mean, not no talk. No insistence. Don't worry, nothing. This frankly, is insane. I know President Trump was ham handed his policy toward China. But the first thing he did was tell Xi that Taiwan is off limits Don't even think about it. I don't hear that kind of talk now. No, look, to be fair. Back to the moment Biden was sworn any senate carrier group to the South China Sea. And our Navy is regularly sending ships through the Strait of Taiwan. But the white house isn't articulating nuclear policy. Japan has been more forceful about using the Military To Protect Taiwan just last night, they talked about it. And their constitution literally doesn't even allow them to deploy troops overseas. So it's meant for us. Now apparently, China does not have a storm, the beaches plan for Taiwan, they're not crazy enough to risk shooting over us, not when it could easily go nuclear. But China does have the ability to put the political squeeze on Taiwan, if they think Biden won't respond and Kai, for example, here the Chinese are bankrolling opposition parties right now in Taiwan, because Taiwan Taiwanese government is to pro independence for their tastes. They can conduct military exercises to disrupt shipping. That's a real blow to Taiwan's export driven economy. So what can the Biden administration do right now today? I want them to come out strongly Biden's sheet explaining it the flyers have to stop the attempts to choke Taiwan's economy won't be tolerated longer. This isn't only about commerce, it's about America defending a trusted ally. Is that a real policy? What's a darn store? It's time for the White House to take the China threatened Gemini seriously. We need to stand up for Taiwan block bogus Chinese IPOs. refuse the Paul America securities laws, and most importantly threatened to cut off China's ability to export to the American market. If the Communist Party refuses to behave. Otherwise Goldfinger wins in this one, and it's much bigger than Fort Knox. I like to say there's always one more consumer and I promise try to find it just for you right here on Mad Money. On Jim Cramer See you tomorrow. The news with Shepard Smith starts now.