MAD MONEY 文字起こし 29JUN21　Shopify President, Paychex CEO & Off The Charts

ジムクレイマーのMAD MONEYの文字起こしになります。米国株を英語学習を通じて投資したい方に向けて作りました。皆さんの反応を見て改善点や英語解説などい追加して行けたらと思います。とても有益な番組なのにジムの英語が難しくて悩んたのをきっかけにこのノートを作成しました。 聞き取れない部分もあるのでご了承ください。

是非MAD MONEYを聴きながら合わせてこのnoteをみれば、様々な州のアメリカ英語を聞くことでリスニング力を鍛えることが出来ると同時に、タイムリーな米国株投資情報を得ることができます。　イイネ！と思った方は投げ銭いただけると嬉しいです！

窶皿ad Money w/ Jim Cramer: Shopify President, Paychex CEO & Off The Charts on Apple Podcasts

0:48
Cramer, welcome to Mad Money. Walk through primerica I'll do one of my friends. I'm just trying to make my job. Entertain, educate, teach context, call me one 800 743 CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. What's the best way to invest in the stock market? Well, one way is to simply own every stock basically pretending that all stocks are created equal something that's clearly a decent strategy to daily today we're down Dan snipe puts the SP edged up winner 3% NASDAQ jump point to 1%, s&p and NASDAQ reaching new records again. And that's what Warren Buffett has advocated. By the way today, he and his partner Charlie Munger will be interviewed by our friend Becky quick at 8pm. Now, if you a little old say the s&p 500 index changes all the time dropping losers that don't make the cut or exiting stocks and companies that got successful takeover bids, and adding the biggest winners of late, then you're taking part in a living, breathing selection process that should generate better returns than just picking 500 random stocks. Now people call this passive investing. But all that additions of Jackson, Mississippi is definitively actively managed. Plus both and cutting will tell you that the cost of actively seeking good stocks is what's actually rarely worth 1% and change it but some mutual fund managers charge you versus the s&p, let alone the two and plus 20% of the province that a hedge fund okay. That's why I always tell you put some money in a cheap index fund that mirrors the s&p 500. It is a good safe strategy. diversification is good. Most people don't do this, they are wrong. So then why to a show about picking individual stocks for 16 years or less? Because if you do it right, I still think you'll outperform the index funds and of course, you're able to determine your own tax situation. Just as important. A lot of people are going to do it wrong no matter what. So I want to at least give them the tools they need to protect themselves. Now the index fund cultist would have you believe that it's basically impossible to consistently outperform the market. And anyone who pulls it off has pretty much just won the lottery, they make it tell you game a chance for heaven's sake, I refuse to accept that why Okay, I'm gonna tell you story. So as a boy, my father would take me to get white bags for delivery to his customers, retailers who needed them to package their merchandise when you made a sale. We go to the wholesaler to get the bags, pretty much the same kind of thing you use as a lunch bag. And the manual on the place had a little office at the back of the warehouse where we'd set a lot. Every time we went to see the job. My dad would say that john was a marine war hero, pop head was army, he had tremendous respect for any marine. Then he told me that because of his investing, john was independently wealthy. Of course, I had no idea what independently wealthy meant back then. So one day my dad asked him to explain what he done with his profits every year. So john opens his desk, and he pulls out this ledger. And it he showed me that he bought the stock of Merck, the pharmaceutical company every year and reinvested dividends. He'd made millions of dollars doing so literally millions. And I remember shaking that one man in a warehouse filled with paper bags could have so much darn money simply because he bought shares in a drug company that he didn't work for and didn't know he about. Or at least he didn't know anything. That was great company was amazing. Like do

4:00
I remember Yes, my father when they do same thing. I mean, we never fractured John's money. But Papa brother who knew a guy who knew another guy who's tennis pro said he should buy the stock at national video. Oh, I didn't understand why he didn't just go buy merch, but natural video that was a hot one. My father says this is a quick way to make money to buy merch. What can I say? Burstow around it try fighting national video. Back in the day merch was the kind of stock that made you fortunes over time even decades later was this talk that may be independently wealthy? I started by hedge fund with work bunny. National video on the other hand was the kind of stock that made you lose fortunes in short order. I mentioned this bit of history because I find that many investors haven't asked themselves a simple question. What do they really want from a stock? Right now we have on display one of the biggest menus of stock winners that I've ever seen. There are tons of marks out there as well as a bunch of national videos. Again, maybe it's safest just to stick to index funds, but I keep thinking of that we're here with his millions of dollars gained by investing in Merck, and my dad with the 1000s of dollars he lost betting, not investing but betting on national video. So why don't we just go over this incredible menu right now because I want you to be able to tell the difference between those two types of stocks. First, there's Merck itself, which has kind of lost its way. Well, Merck wasn't a gogo stock. Back then when I when I was little, it did have a lasting heyday of earnings and dividend growth, one that continues to this day, but there are other stocks that have raised their difference for 25 years, but call them dividend aristocrats, and we've got 65 of them in the sp 500 National video, it did appear. On the other hand, we've got red hot momentum stocks the client, beloved by Cathy wood, and while they rarely pay dividends, they can rack up some enormous gains. Does that make them white national video? I bet you some of them will be but what might be the kind of manager who picks enough winners to drown out her occasional national videos. Then we have people who are investing in IPOs lately most of them seem more like national video than merch we got one interesting one DD tonight. Let's see what happens to that fossa got the SPAC plays, which haven't anything goes approach, they can make ridiculous projections about the future and government doesn't even care. Although fewer and fewer people believe the numbers, then there are the cryptocurrencies where a lot of people have made a lot of money, but they're well off their highs, and they use some little wild west note that you've also got stocks that are in flux, the banks that are heavily regulated, just got permission to return some capital shareholders, that the only one that reacted with more than a yawn was Morgan Stanley, because it surprised us with the size of its capital return plan. And because it's doing really well, or we have stocks like Facebook, which just beat the FTC in the in federal court. Now the FTC wanted them to make less money. There's a goal one that later Finally, we have stocks, like paychecks, which looks a lot like Merck did back in the 60s, payroll processors giving you a sizable reliable did for 25 years more than that later just boosted dividends. And we have growth names like Shopify, which has been one of the best stocks of our generation, the kind of thing my father was shooting for with national video, but included get it or else I'd have my own private island right now. I present this menu because I genuinely believe you can find the next Shopify. I know, I know that because we found the original Shopify for you 1400 points ago. You can find the next paychecks because we found it for you 70 points ago saans dividends, you can find the next Facebook which we recommended to you way back at 18. And of course you can find the next Nvidia stock I like so much right now, not one but two dogs after in video. The first guy his name changed 600 points ago. So watch Buffett and Munger tonight they're incredibly smart guys drum track record, but the bottom line, don't take them too seriously, when they tell you that regular investors should stick to index funds and only index funds. Because we wouldn't do the homework. I think you pick your own winners and from the averages provided you avoid the red hot national videos. Sometimes I wonder if pop even knew what they did? Or if they knew what they did, either. How about Bradley in California, please Bradley.

7:58
Hey, Jim got your book. Greetings from beautiful so cow. My question is about retail at Macy's and your thoughts on the sustainability and momentum as we meander back to normalcy? And do you think the brick and mortar stores will benefit? And along those lines when and if you think the dividend will be reinstated?

8:18
I think Jeff's doing a good job at Macy's. He does need more international travel because the New York store is so important but he's making a lot of right moves. I'm not sure about the dividend but the stock is cheap enough that I do want to own it into this period. It's not my favorite brick and mortar store. But it's it's good. Not a good job. Can I go to Luis in North Carolina Luis.

8:37
Hi, Jay j man talking about the largest ecommerce retailer of South Korea they're growing exponentially, like doubling revenues quarter over quarter their mere IPO rate 4 billion bucks the stock hit 69 but dropped to 30 right today it paints on top 42 Jamie Is it time to load the truck with cplg

9:02
See I keep coming back to least why I like Ali Baba so much. I think that Ali Baba has got the right stuff and breaking out here. And that's the one I want you to buy and I mean, I want you to buy Alright, index funds aren't the only game in town they work. But don't let investing legends Buffett or Munger convince you of that either on tonight Becky quick APM if you're willing to do the homework, you can pick winning stocks. And I say the averages or memory tonight global economic activity for merchants on Shopify reached a whopping $307 billion in 2020. In the strength in e commerce continuing to 2021 on the company if there's developer conference playing out what's your night and the weather is heating up for the market seasonal patterns getting hotter as well. I'll find out if we're due for a rally when I head off the charts you not want to miss this and with vaccines in the rise economies of course the US back in full swing. I'm doubling paycheck CEO but the state A small business and what are the benefits if they drop? Who mean were people looking for work, so stay with Kramer.

10:09
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11:11
the last six weeks we've seen a massive rotation back with the kind of turbocharged growth stocks I like once a solo apart in February and March, the point where some of them are even making new highs now look at Kramer fav Shopify, the software company that helps businesses of all sizes set up their own e commerce platforms, millions of jobs created from the bottom of may 13. to its peak early last week, Shopify rallied more than 50% as pulled back a little bit slightly. While hyper growth stocks go in and out of style in the wall street fashion. So Shopify keeps plugging away, investing in its platform delivering excellent results helping people all over the world. Plus, today, the company hosted its annual Shopify unite event for partners and developers, where they announced some major infrastructure innovations, including new tools to help merchants better customize their own digital stores. So let's take a closer look with Harley Finkelstein, friend of the show president Shopify, learn more about these announcements and what comes next Mr. Philistine Welcome back to Mad Money. So great to be here, Jim. Thanks for having me on again. All right, Harley, you think it's ever possible that a single merchant will be able to sell 300,000 pairs of sneakers in just over eight minutes? Well, that's the goal. At least we want to make sure that when merchants use Shopify, they have no restrictions, no limitations. And so when you talked about Shopify unite, and there really two components of the United announcements today, one was, of course, more flexible, more scalable, more high performing version of Shopify than ever before, where merchants can customize their storefronts. You look at the new Netflix store that launched a couple weeks ago on Shopify, using our online store 2.0. This is the first time that Netflix ever had an online store, and they were able to customize a store that was specific to their needs. You look at the infrastructure announcements that we made with some of the storefront API's and companies like allbirds, creating new mobile apps that unlock exclusive deals. And of course, now allow consumers to try on shoes using augmented reality. But then we also talked about Shopify checkout. And you and I've talked about Shopify checkout for a long time for many years, because the biggest flash sales on the planet all happen on Shopify. But what we wanted to do on the checkout side was really extend the customization capabilities to checkout and shop pay so that if a merchant wants to build specific experiences, donation requests, they want to do upsells they want to do buy now pay later, everything is now available from Shopify, and if they want to sell 300,000 pairs of sneakers, in a few minutes, they can do that. So all of this is joyous because there's everybody has a dream. And the dream can be realized because of the man you're looking at. And his incredible team, Canadian team I'm gonna say that because that's how I always think you guys now one of these I told my wife he says is that Do you know that this man knows every single business that has been helped by Shopify, but I'm gonna let you off easily? Chaco sole traders Tell me about them. It's interesting that you bring up that particular store, because actually, that's a great pandemic story. Here you have a Toronto based social enterprise that works directly with farmers and makes their chocolate from scratch. During the pandemic. They were hit hard. They had a physical store in Toronto, and using Shopify, they were very easily able to move online, but also do things like curbside checkout Checkout, and also use touchless payments. But really, I think Shopify, Jim, we are this rare breed in that we were this wonderful pandemic store, we helped small businesses find resiliency and survive the pandemic. And now we really have fully transitioned to being this global recovery story as countries open up and and i think you and I agreed the center of gravity for commerce has permantly shifted online, and every merchant every brand, every small business now requires a retail operating system, and they need to do multi channel natively. And that's what Shopify is best in the world at. And in 2020 alone, over 450 million people checked out on Shopify, that's about 8% of the global population. And we're now looking at about 9% of all e commerce in the US Going through Shopify. And remember, we are a proxy for independent small businesses. And you know, when you see the consumer confidence numbers that came out this morning, you see that consumers are voting with their wallets to buy from these independent brands. When one of these like is I was going back and forth with Mark Zuckerberg today. And he is so proud of his relationship with you to help small businesses grow with him. I mean, he kind of cracked the code of that zone telling me he likes working with you.

15:28
Yeah, it's it's pretty amazing. Whether it's a relationship with Facebook, or a new partnership with Google, or some of the things we announced with Tick Tock and Pinterest, we really believe that the future of retail is going to take place in the modern day town squares. And consumers are spending their time on Facebook. And they're spending their time on Instagram and YouTube and Google Maps. And it is our responsibility if we want to build a future proof commerce system to make sure that all those integrations are easy for merchants, so they can reach all of their consumers wherever they may be. Now, in particular, with Facebook and Instagram, the fact is the first time that shop pay is now available to retailers that are not even on Shopify. And we think that's going to make it much easier for commerce to be conducted in a decentralized, independent way. And we're very proud of our partnerships. Why can I tell you that there are still people who don't believe that you invest in companies that you are just some sort of factotum? They don't get that you have heart and soul? I'm gonna give you another chance because of unite. Just how many businesses have you seen? How many businesses have you helped create that would exist? Well, it's kind of amazing. I mean, we talked about capital being such an important part of building a business. And actually, we've now given them more than $2 billion of cumulative capital, since we launched Shopify capital. And it took took us four years to give up the first billion dollars in just a quarter to double that to $2 billion. Now, again, this is capital that otherwise these small business would not be able to receive. But remember, we want to democratize the opportunity not just for small business, but also for developers. And one of the most profound and impactful announcements that I made today, on stage at unite was the fact that we've now reduced the rev share for developers to 0% on their first million dollars. That means that if you build an app on Shopify, your first million dollars is all yours. And that is really important because we believe in this idea of building a real ecosystem. And we want 1000s and 10s of 1000s developers building on Shopify, you know, last year, our partners generated about $12 billion in revenue, which is about four times what Shopify made. And that's what we mean when we say we want to create more value for them than we capture for ourselves. And that economy of developers and partners on Shopify, it keeps growing. Okay, so now that's been damaged, cofely is winding down, we know there are issues, our company's lesson news, I mean, we gotten to the point where you no longer feel or the companies aren't, aren't as, let's say, strapped, because things are starting to really open up. Oh, no, not at all. What we are seeing is that entrepreneurship is now part of the global recovery story, small business is going to lead the charge in bringing our cities and communities back to where we were pre pandemic, what I think is also really important understand is that billion businesses have now had to be forced to be resilient. So there is no more like the idea of saying, I'm an omni channel or multi channel retailer today. It's like saying, I have a color TV, every single retailer, every business needs to sell multi channel cross every single service possible. And I think, again, when you have the supply side of these great brands, building these great products and selling everywhere, and you have the consumer demand saying we want to buy we want to vote with our wallets to buy from independent brands, you have one of the most important new emergence in entrepreneurship, maybe ever, I think we're living in a very special time for small business. And I've never been more bullish on entrepreneurship. And I'm right now, it wouldn't be a special time if you and your team didn't do this. Or if you and your team, it's sold out for $100 when we saw each other for $50. And there were so many companies who said I'll pay a double, I'll pay a double again. And you knew you knew but more important, you had pride and you were never gonna let this one go. I want to thank you for everything you've done Harley Finkelstein for changing for changing every millions of people's hopes and dreams into businesses that make money, no charity, they make money. Thank you for coming on, man. Thank you. Guys, we do this show because of this. This is what we do lots of companies I love. I always want to talk about lots of companies. But then there are companies that just make me feel like you know what? business is the greatest source for social change. We have monies back after

19:28
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20:03
at a moment when the NASDAQ and the s&p keep making record highs happening again, how do we get our arms around this market? So many people are confused. We've made this move on the back of a powerful rotation out of the industrials. So going on into the kinds of stocks that tend to thrive in a slowing economy, because Wall Street's convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in order to tamp down inflation. That's why the NASDAQ disappear being more cyclical Dow Jones Industrial Average, don't panic, it's fine. But understand that's what's going on. When we keep making new highs, you got to wonder how much longer the market continued war. That's what I keep getting asked about. And that's why Tonight, we're going back to the Well, we're going off the charts with the help of Larry Williams, the legendary technician, who's been trading Stocks, Futures and commodities since I was in grade school, and it's been so hot, I couldn't resist. It's also written more than dozen books and created a host of indicators that we use all the time here. More important for over a year now. He's been on fire, nailing nearly every twist and turn in this roller coaster of a market including the most recently Yeah, a couple weeks ago, Williams warned us about this late June swoon. He had looked at the data from last 22 years included the market almost always rolls over in mid to late June, before rebounding a few days or a week later. Sure enough, we got hammered later that week. And it created phenomenal entry point if you were nimble enough to take advantage of it. If you did exactly what he said. See, that's Larry specially he identifies sourcers, the cycles that tend to repeat themselves year after year, including both seasonal and stock specific patterns. We're going to cover two of them. Last spring when everyone was tearing their hair out about how COVID would destroy the economy. He predicted both the economy and the stock market would bottom by midnight. And the Garcias call around and automate contrary and cold shot. And he absolutely knocked it out of the park, arguably the best investment vice on the show last year. Beyond that he's always looking for important dates on the calendar when a stock or an index is likely to change its trajectory. And we've seen a bunch of these by buying stocks, going into Thanksgiving, buying the retailers going into Easter, and it's stunning how often they worked out. So I couldn't I had to go I had to go to them. And it brings us where we are right now. While the markets been roaring lately. Wim since it's got more room to run. As he sees it. This market is not running out of steam. If anything, it could be about to step into high gear, because we're headed into the Fourth of July rally. Not every stock would cover one later, but many. So what makes them so confident Okay, once you take a look at this daily chart of the s&p 500 futures, now the red line down at the bottom represents the s&p seasonable seasonal pattern projected out through the rest of the year. Look at this, we typically the market tends to rally at this time of year with a nice run through mid late July. If history is any guide, then you'd expect the SMP to keep running from these levels. And Williams has spent his whole career demonstrating that history can be an incredibly reliable guide for stocks. Not perfect. These patterns are never 100% reliable, sometimes they break down. But when it comes to trading stocks, it's always better to have history on your side. And is history ever on your side right here. Now we know that because we took advantage of the same Fourth of July trade last year and worked out fabulously well. It might not work out again this year. Williams likes your odds. And I do too. So what's the optimal way to play the seasonal pattern now check out this chart, it's kind of more of a histogram we use is calculated how you would have done if you bought the s&p 500 futures on the first trading day July and then held for up to 12 more days. as is so often the case the longer you hold. The longer you hold a winning trade, the more money you make. In this case, William points out that the maximum profit comes when you ring the register on days eight through 12. Look at this. There. There are some trades you need to exit quickly because they tend to be short lived. That was the case with late June swoon a couple weeks ago, you had to sell stocks early then swap back in a couple days later. Because the more you put the weave then like he said it would this fourth of July trade tends to have more longevity net. If it starts working in your favor waiver says it probably has legs and you got to keep holding on. So how accurate is Lowry season forecast? What percentage of the time is this trade actually worked? First off? Well accuracy is very important. It's not enough to have a trade that works 70 or 80% of the top because you also need to make sure the gains outweigh the losses if a trade works nearly every year. But then it has one or two enormous losses that far outweigh the gains it means that the reward is not your favorite. So now I got another table for you to look at this one measures how you would have done if you had bought the s&p futures on the first day of July and then sold however many trading days later over the last 23 years. Okay. Now, if all if you only care about accuracy, then history says you'd actually want to sell right here, right? Yeah, a day or two later. That way you have a winning trade roughly 80% of the time right here. Okay, so that's the easiest. But now if you hang out, and you goes for more than five trading days It's okay. Then the accuracy declines. See right there big step down. However, while the risk of getting wrong arises holding on for 12 days, tends to give you the largest gains so you got to gauge yourself. On average, you would have made more than three times as much money selling on day 12 versus selling on day one. If you want a reliable ultra short term trade than buying the s&p at the open on Thursday, okay, and then selling on Friday will be the safest way to go. But if you're willing to accept a little more risk wims is adamant that buying on Thursday and then selling 12 days later is the best way to go. Given his track record, I believe, and that's good news for the porter market. So I suggest

25:46
All right, however, this is a bit of a downer. Then like it there's at least one stock one stock he wouldn't want to own going into the Fourth of July rally to the one that government is an after the analyst love to total Kramer fav. Microsoft, his reasoning. Alright, we'll take a look at Microsoft's daily chart. This is a bummer for me. But although the stocks been roaring since all things tech bottomed in mid mid May, Williams has noticed something curious about this rally. Check out the purple on balance volume line at the bottom. Okay. See, this is a cumulative indicator that measures volume flow, adding the volume on updates and subtracting the volume went down days. For charters volumes, like a polygraph. When you see a big move on a modifier that often means that the move is a lie. It's a fib. And when it comes to Microsoft's recent run, which just points out that there's hardly any volume behind it at all. That's the kind of pattern we typically see before a sell off. Oh, and he's noticed the same thing at Apple, Amazon and Google. Definitely something to keep in mind. I know I am. We'll all these stocks my child will trust. You can follow along by joining my action alerts plus calm club. We're committed to owning them, but I don't like what I see here. Now here's the bottom line. The charts is driven by the legendary lie William suggests the s&p 500 has more room to run over the next two or three weeks, the so called Fourth of July rally that works so well for us last year because of him. But though he sees the broader market headed higher winds recommend steering clear big tech right now because those stocks have been boring on week five, which tells him they're fragile. I say I'm not a trader these names too hard to get out and then get back in again. But those who are inclined. data's pretty convincing. Tim in New York town.

27:34
What's up, Jim? It's Tim. I'm from Long Island. I'm calling about the stock contract logic aka Where do you think add to the partnerships announced recently a merchant out of China with which still being down 44% since the IPO and the hiring of Jacqueline research from square does Wall Street back now that right? Are you? Well, I

27:56
have to tell you what I did was pull people about this people love the product. They love the product that I don't want to get in when I see a stock that 101 million shares trade or marine software, which had like 300 million shares. That is daunting to me. I don't know what to make of that. That just seems kind of a little crazy. But when when people tell me the products good, what can I tell you Tim? Whom I just hated? It's no good. Hey, what are we going to end in my house in New Jersey? And

28:21
yes, that's me. And I love the gym. I love Even though I've stopped it if you said you loved which everybody else needs to do but since then it's gone down, down down. I need to know I sell it. It's an Oh,

28:38
Oh, I know. And I liked them and their software so good. It's just abstruse is the word that comes to me people don't understand that when bank spurs they choose it. I think it's really good. Maybe cuz it's in Wilmington, North Carolina and doesn't get any publicity. But I would say look, I gotta say stick with it. I keep the unseen of bat bell on my desk because I keep thinking I can't be this wrong. I can't I say stick with like the charts suggest that somebody could shift into high gear over the next two or three weeks. But the charts also say if you were a big tech the rupal Novi those stocks may be hitting the brakes in the near term. I'm not losing faith, much more money at his worries over tighter labor market to make headlines. I'm gonna sit down with CEO paychecks to find out what he sees that the government isn't a reason to sell Facebook or the Fang stocks and oil cost rabbit Park tonight so some of the lightning round so stay with Kramer.

29:39
As we head into Friday's always usually plan report the most important macro number out there, especially in a market like this where Wall Street's worried about wage inflation from a tight labor market. Can we glean anything about the state of hiring from the payroll processors take paychecks long our favorite which handles payroll and also Human Resources outsourcing for all sorts of small and medium sized businesses. They is a company that usually reports excellent numbers only to see it stocks sell off anyway. But when paychecks delivered this quarter, this was a terrific one. Last Friday, clean top and bottom line beat bullish full year forecast much more bullish than I was looking for. They finally broke the pattern with the stock warning in response, in fact, just made it another new all time high today. So what can we extrapolate from these results? Let's check in with Marty VC. He's the president and CEO of paychecks to get a clear picture of the quarter and what is going on morning. Welcome back to the show. Thanks, Jim. Great to be here. All right. Well, let's start by saying Happy 50th. It's an amazing thing for companies to be 50 years old to get that for what is been if you had to look at the long term success of paychecks the reason why you went from being a small company very small, you started to being the giant in your business.

30:50
Well, thanks, Jim. I think it's been really about the people at paychecks our employees have made the difference with service and the innovation. You know, we've always tried to stay ahead of the market from a technology and innovation perspective, always focused on serving our clients and being there for them. And none better time than the pandemic when they were really trying to fight for their survival. We were there for to help them and be a friend to small business and medium businesses.

31:13
Well, you absolutely have been in jeopardy with PPP, which has been very difficult to understand. But you had a team that was all set so that people could get that money back that they needed to stay in business.

31:23
Right. And we helped, you know, helped our clients get over $65 billion in PPP loans, as well as turned them into grants with the forgiveness. And we're now on a mission to really help them with the employee retention tax credit. Probably one of the best things for small and midsize businesses right now. Right through the end of the year, we've already processed over $3 billion worth of employee retention tax credits that which is cash in their pocket to help them out right now

31:49
it can you tell people how to do that, who may not even know what not paychecks customers don't understand. This sounds like a great opportunity for you.

31:57
Well, it is. And Jim, you know, it's really an app, it's it. We talked to the client, we take care of filing for this, basically, they can keep the withholdings of some of the taxes that they're withholding from their employees and for themselves. They don't have to pay those taxes. Once they file for the employee retention tax credits, if they're keeping employees, retaining them in their business, this helps them offset wages, wage increases, as well as maybe some of the pay for new employees that they're bringing in. It's cash in their hand, which is very helpful to small and midsize businesses right now.

32:27
Everybody just stepped down and just one of our businesses is not covered by you. My my organs are so concert. Alright, so this was the biggest race I've ever seen you do. So you had a level of confidence because you're very conservative man, something is happening, Marty that you were able to make that increase in forecasts that made me feel almost worrying. 20 slyke. Things can be that good.

32:50
Well, you know, Jim, we had a record breaking fourth quarter, as you mentioned, you know, we had the best sales results in the fourth quarter we've ever had best revenue recorded, and as well as operating income. And we're forecasting, as you said to take our industry leading operating margin from a little over 36% to 38%. Next year. I think there's just great demand for our HR support our compliance help our time and attendance, our payroll and retirement services. And we're able to hold our expenses down to produce great industry leading margins.

33:19
Right now maybe you can help us settle a debate here. The Wall Street Journal this weekend basically said that Americans are leaving unemployment rolls more quickly in states cutting off benefits. The New York Times the other hand, said we're jobless benefits for cut jobs are still hard to find. Now, these are diametrically opposed stories. Obviously, we are all including the Fed chief worried about whether if you cut those unemployment benefits when people come back to work, morning, you're probably the only person the whole country knows the answer. What is can you settle that debate between these two papers and the rest of us in the country?

33:50
Well, Jim, what we're hearing from our clients is really it's a combination of many things. It's making it tough to hire, it is the unemployment being higher than normal. That's definitely there. In most areas, it's going to be that way through Labor Day. We're also hearing though very much that, you know, as you've said, they're stimulus money in people's bank accounts right now. And so they've stimulus money they didn't expect, and they're feeling a little bit more secure right now, at least through the summer. You're also seeing, of course, the market doing well, for those in the market. You have COVID health concerns about people being resistant about coming back until more people are vaccinated. And then you have childcare daycare in schools that aren't back to normal. I think we kind of see this all coming together around the September timeframe. And I think that will really open up the market to allow people to be able to hire a little bit easier. bsnes

34:35
Whoa, shouldn't there be some concern among people who are jobless? That they want to lock in some great rate now versus when a lot of people come in in October where I think that we can actually drop how much we pay? Well, I

34:52
think that's a great question. I do think, Jim, that's true. I think you're seeing elevated minimum starting rates, you know, people you know, even the frontline service. positions up 1718, sometimes $20 an hour where they were less than 15. But I think people are saying right now, there's all those concerns I mentioned. And when you balance it out, I think they're waiting, they're going to kind of do a little bit wait and see. And then I think it'll start to pick up again. In September, however, I will tell you that our clients hired, you know, over 300,000 new employees last month in 3 million in the last 12 months. So there's hiring going on.

35:26
I was amazed at the hiring in leisure and hospitality, just to me, that's a boom, Marty.

35:34
Yeah, it really is. And it's great for those folks. And the supply is there, as you know, a lot of pent up demand, as you know, for restaurants and a lot of service positions. I think, you know, the tough part is that a lot of it's part time right now. And the employers are being a little bit careful that if they have to pay higher wages, do they bring as many back but right now, it's all about finding the people and hiring them. And I think they'll be able to find them. And we're out there to try to support them with our HR support as well. That'd be doing just that.

36:00
Well. I know, again, I always disclose I'm a client and you do a great job. This is. This is your time, Marty. It really is. And I'm glad that all the analysts Well, there's still one who doesn't understand it. All the analysts recognize it's not about the float. It's about all the products that you now offer that companies need. Thank you. Good morning, Mr. President, CEO of paychecks Happy 50th birthday. Just chill. pill master J. The chill man is in the house. He's happy. The lightning

36:30
round is coming up when bad money returns. And then the lighting. Are you base King George and Calvary George. Hey, thanks for taking my coaching piece on the market. What was the one? Thanks for providing all these things on the market. Thank you very much. Thank you. And if you're like me, and you own property in California, you've probably noticed your insurance going through the roof. And in the recent year, I've had a 43% increase and Allstate and have never had a single claim. Wow. I came across a company. It was a blessing in disguise. Actually, I came across a company called triple.com. The company and they got me great that were much lower than what I was doing before and coverage. That was much, much better. Okay. I got five of my friends to switch over to that. But what now? company has partnered with reinvent

37:46
technology partners. Okay, yeah, just back. It's just back. And this is the hippo which people like for insurance and I'm not going to fight it designer. How about that? Let's go to Breton washing breath. Jim. Oh, yeah, Brett. Caller longtime listener. wanted to thank you for your help on investing in content. Calling about Baidu vi D is my second favorite after Alibaba. I mean people don't guide Baba Baba. Baidu is making a real comeback here. Those are the only two that I've really been talking about other than JD I don't like a lot of the Chinese stocks deenis pricing tonight. That is one I do like that's the Uber of China. Let's go to Michael in New York Michael. Jim, thank you for taking my call. You're quite welcome. I'm calling about Digital Ocean simple do cn that's another it's it's still one more company infrastructure platform tools. To many of these companies. I don't want to own another one of these companies, too many of them just go with Adobe. Go with Adobe. That's the way to play and Scott and Chuck on Sky.

39:03
Jimbo bought a couple 100 shares of the stock two weeks ago, and UBS dropped his rating down to 162 last week. I'm up a few percent. I want to know what to do with my Clorox

39:19
Clorox. I am betting right now that Linda Rendell is going to make you money if you buy the stock of course under 180. I want to bank with her right here. I think it makes sense to emphasize yield. Good company. buy the stock, of course. One more. Matthew in Minnesota, Matthew.

39:42
Kim, thank you for teaching me how to build wealth for my family. Oh, You're quite welcome. quite welcome. Yeah. A few months ago, I purchased shares of my first special purpose acquisition. Okay,

39:52
this was Richard. It was Richard Branson's back, which just took public 23 and the ticker symbol m e. What do you think about the color Go in it

40:00
same with Jackie she's bankable I was gonna try to get my dog to do MD apparently haven't for dogs you know cuz he's like, Dude it from the bra What did he call like? variance he's got 50 different variances, but it's a really good cut my wife really likes it a lot of people really love it and what Jackie is think is really great and that lays the inclusion of the

40:21
lightning round is sponsored by TD Ameritrade coming up should the government's approach to bang make you think twice about Facebook? Or is the FTC just pulling teeth? Kramer drops the wisdom next. Tomorrow kick off the trading day was squawk on the street from post nine at the nysc

40:53
peace back something that would be like David, you would need like a SPAC report. You would be waiting waiting. We're trying to wait. It all starts at 9am. Eastern. Jim Cramer, you're one of my heroes.

41:19
I look forward to your show every week night. Thank you so much for helping beginning investors like me, when you talk about the markets. I just believe that you're spot on.

41:29
Oh, I love and thank you so much every night we want to I have learned and earned

41:45
never get on the wrong side of the federal judge never because they will beat you down mercilessly. That's how I feel about this federal court ruling against the Federal Trade Commission. That's the FTC inch crusade to stop Facebook from monopolizing the social networking business in a way that hurts its users. But Federal Court Judge James boalsburg wasn't having any of it. His ruling yesterday was nothing less than a primer on how the FTC and the 40 states that suit with them were so incredibly wrong in the way they brought the case. And the remedies they asked for. It was embarrassing. Both person distinguished jurors and Obama appointee his wound was filled with caustic comments. Just one big Better luck next time reproach. I think better luck next time because I actually am confident there will be next time. The regulators are still gunning for Facebook and the other big tech outfits too. It's the only thing that the democrats republicans in Washington seem to agree on. Well, this FTC currently dominated by Trump appointees really fumbled attempt to explain who Facebook was actually hurting, let alone why they were hurt or what should be done about it. I am sure they'll go at it again. At the same time, boys Berg did lay out a roadmap for how a more competent regulatory agency might go about bringing a stronger case. And you can bet that the FTC his new chair, the 32 year old firebrand, Lena Khan, will start pursuing Facebook in a much more thoughtful way. Yet, I still think she's gonna lose. As I see it. This case shows you how any regulatory attempt to contain big tech, it could be doomed to failure. I'm surprised that their stocks didn't will work again today. Because I'm like Congress, the judiciary is interested in facts, not brands theory, basically facts, it's very hard to get these companies maybe trust grounds, even assuming you believe Facebook's a monopoly to begin with something by the way, the judging knowledge. But it's easy to dispute when you consider the existence of Twitter Tiktok snap, as long as they're not hurting customers, it's going to be hard to find a court willing to crack down on them. I know both political parties united and the idea that these companies are just too powerful. And by these companies, of course, I mean, Fang, my acronym for Facebook, Amazon, apple, Netflix and Google. But what we saw in this ruling is the being too powerful is not by itself, an antitrust violation, at least not according to the judiciary. And that's who matters. The regulators need more than that, if they want to stop Fang and I'm using the amorphous words stop, because you have to see as even figured out what they would want to do to basically hobble a very popular product so it doesn't block new competitors, puts in the most damning part of the ruling, which was great reading actually, the judge pointed out that when Facebook acquired Instagram and WhatsApp exhibits a and b for how they stifle innovation. Both these deals got lengthy reviews by the FTC itself, which then gave them its blessing. How the heck do they approve these transactions then turn around a few years later and cite them as examples of anti competitive behavior? Hey, don't forget the time lots of people find Zuckerberg wildly overpaid for both these companies. Wall Street couldn't figure out how the heck he could justify this crazy valuations. Any other big tech company could have easily come in swooped in bought them if they wanted to compete with Facebook. Now Facebook stock jumped 14 points yesterday down three and change today but jump 14 points on the news. Importantly is the FTC couldn't really show harm and with no harm remedy, could the same be sent? I wonder about Apple with its app store? Maybe they're not a bad actor. Hey, how about alphabet was search or Amazon with its own products? In each case, I could easily argue that the gains for the consumer far outweigh the losses for these companies competitors. In many cases, the issue is that they're undercutting the rivals, which is great for you, if they ever start charging too much than the competition will take off. When I first read the rule, and I speculated myself, this could be the high watermark and the government's attempt to crack down on big tech. Oh, that's wrong. The new head of the FTC is way too aggressive to give up now. But this ruling is reminder that regulatory action is a bad reason to sell the Fang stocks. These stories are all about sales and earnings, not any trust enforcement. And on that basis, they're all buys. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. And I promise try to find it just for you right here on Mad Money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow. The news is Shepard Smith starts now.