進む円安、金利差以外に貿易や投資の資金フローが寄与
本文
米国のトランプ次期大統領がインフレ的な政策を打ち出す可能性が高い中、為替市場では日米金利差が円安要因として注目されています。
一方で、金利差だけでなく、貿易や投資に伴う資金フローも円安圧力を強める要因となっています。特に、日本は2024年第3四半期に過去最高の8兆9700億円の経常黒字を計上しましたが、直接投資や証券投資の流出額がこれを上回り、円高には繋がりにくい状況です。元来、円安によって経常黒字化すると、国外で稼いだより多くのドルが国内で円に換えられるため円の価値は上がります。現在はそれらが円に換えられる前にドルのまま海外に再投資されているという状況です。
日本からの資本流出は、低成長が背景にあり、これが再投資を助長し、円安圧力を強めています。9月には円キャリートレードの解消で一時的に円高となりましたが、その後約10％の円安が進行しています。
さらに、日本への海外からの直接投資残高はGDPの8.3％にとどまり、経済規模の大きい国々と比較して低い水準です。海外企業の日本市場への参入障壁や日本経済の低成長が影響しており、これも相対的に資本流出を加速させる要因です。
また、日本に投資する海外投資家も為替ヘッジ付きで投資することが多く、これによって円高には繋がりにくく、円安圧力が続いています。
English
Amid the high likelihood of U.S. President-elect Trump's inflationary policies, the exchange rate market is focusing on the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. as a factor contributing to the depreciation of the yen.
However, it is not only the interest rate differential but also capital flows related to trade and investment that are putting upward pressure on the yen's depreciation. Particularly, Japan recorded its highest-ever current account surplus of 8.97 trillion yen in Q3 2024, but the outflows of direct investment and securities investment exceeded this, making it difficult for the yen to appreciate.
Normally, a current account surplus driven by a weaker yen would result in more dollars earned abroad being converted into yen domestically, which would strengthen the yen. Currently, however, these dollars are being reinvested abroad before being converted into yen.
The outflow of capital from Japan is primarily driven by low economic growth, which promotes reinvestment and exerts further pressure on the yen’s depreciation. In September, there was a temporary yen appreciation due to the unwinding of yen carry trades, but since then, the yen has depreciated by about 10%.
Furthermore, Japan’s foreign direct investment balance remains only 8.3% of GDP, which is low compared to large economies. Barriers to foreign companies entering the Japanese market and Japan’s low economic growth are influencing this, and they accelerate the outflow of capital relative to other countries.
Moreover, foreign investors in Japan often invest with currency hedging, which makes it difficult for the yen to appreciate, leading to continued depreciation pressure on the yen.