World Economic Forum (ダボス会議を毎年開催) から出された2022年度版グローバルリスクに関するレポート

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental and lobbying organisation based in Cologny, canton of Geneva, Switzerland. It was founded on 24 January 1971 by German engineer and economist Klaus Schwab. The foundation, which is mostly funded by its 1,000 member companies – typically global enterprises with more than five billion US dollars in turnover – as well as public subsidies, views its own mission as "improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional, and industry agendas".

The WEF is mostly known for its annual meeting at the end of January in Davos, a mountain resort in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 3,000 paying members and selected participants – among which are investors, business leaders, political leaders, economists, celebrities and journalists – for up to five days to discuss global issues across 500 sessions.

わたしのnoteにおいては、最新の科学・経済・社会等の問題に関して、英語の記事を引用し、その英文が読み易いように加工し、「英語の勉強ツール」と「最新情報収集ツール」としてご利用頂くことをmain missionとさせて頂きます。勿論、私論を書かせて頂くこともしばしです。

The Global Risks Report 2022, 17th Edition, is published by the World Economic Forum.

Executive Summary

As 2022 begins, COVID-19 and its economic and societal consequences continue to pose a critical threat to the world. ＜Vaccine inequality＞ and ＜a resultant uneven economic recovery＞ risk (危険にさらす) ＜compounding (悪化させる/kʌ̀mpáund) social fractures (割れ目、裂け目/frǽktʃər) and geopolitical tensions.＞ In the poorest 52 countries— home to 20% of the world’s people—only 6% of the population had been vaccinated at the time of writing. By 2024, developing economies (excluding China) will have fallen 5.5% below their pre-pandemic expected GDP growth, while advanced economies will have surpassed it by 0.9%—widening the global income gap. The resulting global divergence (相違、分岐/daivə́ːdʒəns) will create tensions— within and across borders—that risk worsening the pandemic’s cascading (次から次へとつなげる/kæskéid) impacts and complicating (複雑にする、困難にする/kɑ́mpləkèit) the coordination needed to tackle common challenges including strengthening climate action, enhancing digital safety, restoring livelihoods (生計、暮らし、生活/láivlihùd) and societal cohesion and managing competition in space. The Global Risks Report 2022 presents the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), followed by an analysis of key risks emanating (～から発生する/émənèit) from current economic, societal, environmental and technological tensions. The report concludes with reflections (省察、熟考、アイデア、考え/riflékʃən) on enhancing resilience (回復力、立ち直る力、復活力、復元力/rizíliəns), drawing from (～から引き出す、～から得る) the lessons of the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The key findings of the survey and the analysis are summarized below.

Global risks perceptions highlight societal and environmental concerns

Asked to take a view of the past two years, respondents to the GRPS perceive societal risks—in the form of “social cohesion erosion”, “livelihood crises” and “mental health deterioration”—as those that have worsened the most since the pandemic began. Only 16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about the outlook for the world, and just 11% believe the global recovery will accelerate. Most respondents instead expect the next three years to be characterized by either consistent volatility (不安定) and multiple surprises or fractured (砕ける、折れる、裂ける/frǽktʃər) trajectories (軌道、軌跡、通り道/trədʒéktəri) that will separate relative winners and losers. For the next five years, respondents again signal societal and environmental risks as the most concerning. However, over a 10-year horizon, the health of the planet dominates concerns: environmental risks are perceived to be the five most critical long-term threats to the world as well as the most potentially damaging to people and planet, with “climate action failure”, “extreme weather”, and “biodiversity loss” ranking as the top three most severe risks. Respondents also signalled “debt crises” and “geoeconomic confrontations” as among the most severe risks over the next 10 years. Technological risks—such as “digital inequality” and “cybersecurity failure”—are other critical short- and medium-term threats to the world according to GRPS respondents, but these fall back in the rankings towards the long term and none appear among the most potentially severe, signalling a possible blind spot (盲点) in risk perceptions. The 2021-2022 GRPS included a question on international risk mitigation efforts. “Artificial intelligence”, “space exploitation”, “cross-border cyberattacks and misinformation” and “migration and refugees” are the areas where most respondents believe the current state of risk mitigation efforts fall short of the challenge—that is, efforts are “not started” or in “early development”. Meanwhile, for “trade facilitation”, “international crime” and “weapons of mass destruction”, large majorities perceived risk mitigation efforts to be “established” or “effective”. Executive Summary The Global Risks Report 2022.

A divergent economic recovery threatens collaboration on global challenges

Economic challenges flowing from the pandemic persist. The outlook remains weak: at the time of writing, the global economy was expected to be 2.3% smaller by 2024 than it would have been without the pandemic. Rising commodity prices, inflation and debt are emerging risks. Moreover, with another spike in COVID-19 cases towards the end of 2021, the pandemic continues to stifle countries’ ability to facilitate a sustained recovery. The economic fallout from the pandemic is compounding with labour market imbalances, protectionism, and widening digital, education and skills gaps that risk splitting the world into divergent (分岐する、不一致の、相違する/divə́ːrdʒənt) trajectories. In some countries, rapid vaccine rollout, successful digital transformations and new growth opportunities could mean a return to pre-pandemic trends in the short term and the possibility of a more resilient outlook over a longer horizon. Yet many other countries will be held back by low rates of vaccination, continued acute stress on health systems, digital divides and stagnant job markets. These divergences will complicate the international collaboration needed to address the worsening impacts of climate change, manage migration flows and combat dangerous cyber-risks. Short-term domestic pressures will make it harder for governments to focus on long-term priorities and will limit the political capital allocated to global concerns. “Social cohesion erosion” is a top short-term threat in 31 countries—including Argentina, France, Germany, Mexico and South Africa from the G20. Disparities (格差/dispǽrəti) that were already challenging societies are now expected to widen—51 million more people are projected to live in extreme poverty compared to the pre-pandemic trend— at the risk of increasing polarization and resentment within societies. At the same time, domestic pressures risk stronger national interest postures and worsening fractures in the global economy that will come at the expense of foreign aid and cooperation.

A disorderly climate transition will exacerbate inequalities

Respondents to the GRPS rank “climate action failure” as the number one long-term threat to the world and the risk with potentially the most severe impacts over the next decade. Climate change is already manifesting rapidly in the form of droughts, fires, floods, resource scarcity and species loss, among other impacts. In 2020, multiple cities around the world experienced extreme temperatures not seen for years—such as a record high of 42.7°C in Madrid and a 72-year low of -19°C in Dallas, and regions like the Arctic Circle have averaged summer temperatures 10°C higher REUTERS/HEO RAN The Global Risks Report 2022 than in prior years. Governments, businesses and societies are facing increasing pressure to thwart the worst consequences. Yet a disorderly climate transition characterized by divergent trajectories worldwide and across sectors will further drive apart countries and bifurcate (分岐させる/báifərkèit) societies, creating barriers to cooperation. Given the complexities of technological, economic and societal change at this scale, and the insufficient nature of current commitments, it is likely that any transition that achieves the net zero goal by 2050 will be disorderly (無秩序の/disóːrdərli). While COVID-19 lockdowns saw a global dip in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, upward trajectories soon resumed: the GHG emission rate rose faster in 2020 than the average over the last decade. Countries continuing down the path (～の道を進む) of reliance on carbon-intensive sectors risk losing competitive advantage through a higher cost of carbon, reduced resilience, failure to keep up with technological innovation and limited leverage (影響力/lévəridʒi) in trade agreements. Yet shifting away from carbon-intense industries, which currently employ millions of workers, will trigger economic volatility, deepen unemployment and increase societal and geopolitical tensions. Adopting hasty environmental policies will also have unintended consequences for nature—there are still many unknown risks from deploying untested biotechnical and geoengineering technologies—while lack of public support for land use transitions or new pricing schemes will create political complications that further slow action. A transition that fails to account for (説明責任を負う) societal implications will exacerbate inequalities within and between countries, heightening geopolitical frictions.

Growing digital dependency will intensify cyberthreats

Growing dependency on digital systems—intensified by COVID-19—has altered societies. Over the last 18 months, industries have undergone rapid digitalization, workers have shifted to remote working where possible, and platforms and devices facilitating this change have proliferated. At the same time, cybersecurity threats are growing—in 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by 358% and 435% respectively—and are outpacing societies’ ability to effectively prevent or respond to them. Lower barriers to entry for cyberthreat actors, more aggressive attack methods, a dearth of (～の不足) cybersecurity professionals and patchwork governance mechanisms are all aggravating the risk. Attacks on large and strategic systems will carry cascading physical consequences across societies, while prevention will inevitably entail higher costs. Intangible (無形の/intǽndʒəbl) risks—such as disinformation, fraud and lack of digital safety—will also impact public trust in digital systems. Greater cyberthreats will also hamper cooperation between states if governments continue to follow unilateral paths to control risks. As attacks become more severe and broadly impactful, already sharp tensions between governments impacted by cybercrime and governments complicit (加担した、共謀した/kəmplísit) in their commission will rise as cybersecurity becomes another wedge (間に割って入るもの、不和を引き起こすもの/wédʒ) for divergence—rather than cooperation—among nation-states.

Barriers to mobility risk compounding global insecurity

Growing insecurity resulting from economic hardship, intensifying impacts of climate change and political instability are already forcing millions to leave their homes in search of a better future abroad. “Involuntary migration” is a top long-term concern for GRPS respondents, while 60% of them see “migration and refugees” as an area where international mitigation efforts have “not started” or are in “early development”. In 2020, there were over 34 million people displaced abroad globally from conflict alone—a historical high. However, in many countries, the lingering effects of the pandemic, increased economic protectionism and new labour market dynamics are resulting in higher barriers to entry for migrants who might seek opportunity or refuge. These higher barriers to migration, and their spillover effect on remittances (送金/rimítəns)—a critical lifeline for some developing countries—risk precluding (不可能にする、起きないようにする/priklúːd) a potential pathway to restoring livelihoods, maintaining political stability and closing income and labour gaps. At the time of writing, the United States faced over 11 million unfilled jobs in general and the European Union had a deficit of 400,000 drivers just in the trucking industry. In the most extreme cases, humanitarian crises will worsen since vulnerable groups have no choice but to embark on more dangerous journeys. Migration pressures will also exacerbate international tensions as it is increasingly used as a geopolitical instrument. Destination country governments will have to manage diplomatic relationships and immigrant skepticism among their populations.

Opportunities in space could be constrained by frictions

While humans have been exploring space for decades, recent years have witnessed increased activity, not only creating new opportunities but also signalling an emerging realm of risk, particularly with growing militarization and weaponization in the arena. New The Global Risks Report 2022 commercial satellite market entrants are disrupting incumbents’ traditional influence over the global space commons in delivering satellite services, notably internet-related communications. A greater number and range of actors operating in space could generate frictions if space exploration and exploitation are not responsibly managed. With limited and outdated global governance in place to regulate space alongside diverging national-level policies, risks are intensifying. One consequence of accelerated space activity is a higher risk of collisions that could lead to a proliferation of space debris and impact the orbits that host infrastructure for key systems on Earth, damage valuable space equipment or spark international tensions. Limited governance tools increase the likelihood of space activity escalating geopolitical tensions, and recent weapons tests in space underscore such risks. Increased space activity could also lead to unknown environmental impacts or raise costs for public goods such as weather monitoring or climate change surveillance.

Year two of the pandemic yields insights on resilience

In 2021, countries deployed new mechanisms to respond to a public health crisis with shifting characteristics, leading to both successes and failures. Two interlinked factors were critical for effective management of the pandemic: first, the readiness of governments to adjust and modify response strategies according to changing circumstances; and second, their ability to maintain societal trust through principled decisions and effective communication. Reflecting on the distinct resilience goals of governments, businesses and communities will help ensure that agendas are aligned in achieving a whole of-society approach to tackling critical risks of any nature. For governments, balancing costs, regulating for resilience and adjusting data-sharing arrangements to ensure sharper crisis management are key to galvanizing (駆り立てる、活気づける、活性化する/gǽlvənàiz) stronger interaction between public and private sectors. Businesses—recognizing that better national-level preparedness is critical for planning, investing and executing their strategies—can leverage opportunities in areas such as supply chains, codes of conduct within their industry and inclusion of a resilience dimension into workforce benefit offerings. Communities can help local governments to join up with national efforts, improve communication and support grassroots resilience efforts. At an organizational level, strategies such as grounding resilience analyses in key delivery requirements, appreciating systemic vulnerabilities and embracing a diversity of approaches can help leaders build better resilience as well.