「ワイルダーのアダムセオリー」を読む（１）
J・ウエルズ・ワイルダー・ジュニア
ワイルダーのアダムセオリー ——値動きこそがすべて （2019/3/17）
Welles J. Wilder
The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters Is Profit (May 31, 1987)
ワイルダーさんといえば
ADXとDMI
ATR
Parabolic SAR
Pivot Points
RSI
などなど開発したテクニカル分析の大御所
そのワイルダーさんに
「マーケットで成功するための原理はどのようなものなのか」
という疑問に対する答えを「100万ドルで売ってもいい」
と持ちかけたのがこの人
ワイルダーさん 買いました
1985年の100万ドルって
今ならいくらくらいなんだろ
実はワイルダーさん その2-3年前にも
スローマンさんから別の手法を「高額」で買ってます
いいカモか
で 100万ドル払って教えてもらったのが
「アダムセオリー」
えっ これが100万ドル？ って言ったかどうか
この本は「アダムセオリー」の解説書
100万ドルで買った手法を
本にして出版しちゃうなんて
ワイルダーさん 太っ腹
ATRとかRSIなんかも どっかの詐欺商材屋と違って
無料で公開 無料で提供 ですもんね
ケメコnoteやケメコインジを
無料で公開していいんですか？
とか言ってるレベルちゃう
落ち穂老師に
「アダムセオリー」のこと尋ねたら
「あの頃のアメリカにおいて、あらゆる階層あらゆる階級に浸透していたNew Age Movementが、投資やトレードの分野に入り込んだ名残」
だそうです
「アダムセオリー」はひとつのおとぎ話からはじまります
このおとぎ話のなかに
「相場で成功するための原理」が隠されています
おとぎ話っていうよりallegoryですね
「天路歴程」Pilgrim's Progress みたいな
この本で一番重要なのは このallegory
とっても大事だから 全文載せておきます
英語と日本語で
Once upon a time there was an enchanted land called Marketland where a fascinating game called The Market was played most days. And the thing about this game was that it would go up or down every day and the players would make bets about the outcome. A simple game.
But there were complications, which had to do with the fact that all the players in Marketland had opinions about which way the market would go.
And not only opinions. The players had systems, methods, evidence and analysis to back up their opinions. They had Dactyl numbers and Pdontiff waves, Xandon lines and Zigdar harmonics. They had the legacies of the old masters, Oerbot and Caljen. They had inventories and earnings, money-flow studies, astrology charts and the benefits of 4th-order spectrum analysis, all of which was extremely fascinating. Yes indeed, the players had many marvelous things.
The problem, though, was that sometimes the methods called for the market to go one way and it would go the other way. This never failed to astonish everyone concerned, and there were many long discussions about how or why the market could be so perverse. However, it was usually agreed that this had just been a temporary aberration by the market and that the methods and analyses were as good as ever.
But one afternoon something happened to one of the players, a man named Mr. Beright. And he was never the same again. Mr. Beright had made a detailed study of Azerhof numbers, becoming one of Marketland's recognized experts on the subject. And the Azerhof numbers were now quite plainly stating that the market needed to go up, so Mr. Beright had taken a solid long position.
Unfortunately, quite soon after Mr. Beright had gone massively long, the market started down. This did not worry Mr. Beright excessively, since he realized the market had to go up. Yet the market (strange creature that it is) wouldn't pay any attention. It kept going down. And down. And down. And Mr. Beright (understandably, since we've all lived through these moments) got quite anxious and depressed. But he knew it would all get better very soon, just as soon as the market turned around and went the way it was supposed to go.
Now all good fairy tales have children in them and this one is no exception. Mr. Beright, it turns out, had a beautiful five year-old daughter named Herenow, and just as he was contemplating his sad fate, Herenow walked into the room. Sensing that something was wrong, she asked what it was.
"Oh nothing, darling, You wouldn't understand. It's just that the market is supposed to go up and it hasn't yet."
"Is this the market, daddy? This line on the screen here?"
"Yes."
Little Herenow went over and peered intently at the jagged line on the screen. And then she said "Well, daddy, I don't know anything about the market. But
it certainly seems to be going down."
"Well dear, that's why you don't understand. You see, the Azerhof numbers say that absolutely, positively the market has to go up here."
"I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down."
"Not only that Herenow, but the Melinxar frequencies state unequivocably that the market has got to go up here."
"I know, daddy, but right now it seems to be going down."
"You don't understand, darling. When the Azerhof numbers and the Melinxar frequencies agree, the market has got to go in that direction."
Little Herenow looked puzzled. She went over and peered at the screen once more.
"I don't understand all those things you're talking about, daddy, and I don't understand the market, but right now it seems to be going down. Doesn't it?"
Mr. Beright paused and looked carefully at his five year-old daughter. "Would you say that again, Herenow?"
"Just that right now, daddy, the market seems to be going
down. That's all. Did I say something wrong?"
"No, dear no ... not at all."
And at that precise moment something snapped in Mr. Beright. All those years of studying Azerhof numbers and Melinxar frequencies and everything else swam in front of his eyes. Then he looked at his little daughter again, picked up the phone and sold out his long position. And what's more, he went very, very short.
Now Mr. Beright is a changed man. Because all that time that he used to spend studying Azerhof numbers and so on he now spends playing golf and enjoying his family. And his friends think he has become very strange, because he has no interest in all those fascinating systems and methods and statistics about the market anymore.
But Mr. Beright doesn't care. Because he's making money. Lots and lots of it.
日本語は吉田真一って人の翻訳
ビーライト氏は Mr. Beright 「正しくあれ」
ヒアナウちゃんは Herenow 「ここに今」
パパは言い張ります
あらゆる分析の結果
株価はここから上向きにならないとおかしい
って
海外勢の手口分析を見ると・・・
財務分析や決算報告から判断して・・・
オシレーターが売られすぎを示しているので・・・
ボリバンの-2σにタッチしたから・・・
どう考えても株価は底を打ったから・・・
チャートの読み方も相場のことも
一切知らないHerenowちゃんは言います
Right now it seems to be going down.
いまのいまは 下がっていくようにしか 見えないんだけど
だってパパ ワニさんは 下にお口をあけてるよ
Herenowちゃん（ここに今）が強調する”right now”
ちょうど今
今目の前で
今この瞬間
過去でもなく
先の予想や予測でもなく
いま現在
ジム・スローマンさんの
「マーケットで成功するための原理」は
ここにあるんですって
落ち穂老師が
New Age Movementに毒されている
って決めつけるのは こういうところなんかしら
今回は 1章と2章でした
【追記】
おとぎ話の日本語は Xにもポストしてあります
noteって画像をDLできないけど
XならDLして保存することができます
【追記２】
「マーケットで成功するための原理はどのようなものなのか」
ChatGPTに聞いてみた
投資やトレードにおいても成功するための原則はあります。以下にいくつかの基本的な原則を挙げてみます。
市場の理解： 成功するためには、投資またはトレードする市場を深く理解することが不可欠です。市場の特性や動向、影響を与える要因を把握し、冷静かつ客観的な分析を行いましょう。
リスク管理： 投資やトレードでは常にリスクが伴います。資産の保有や取引においてリスクを適切に管理し、損失を最小限に抑えるための戦略を構築することが重要です。
戦略の明確化： 投資やトレードにおいては、明確な戦略を持つことが成功の基盤です。長期的な投資目標や短期的な取引戦略を設定し、それに基づいて行動しましょう。
情報の活用： 市場情報を適切に収集し、分析することは不可欠です。最新の経済指標やニュース、企業の業績などに注意を払い、それらの情報をトレードや投資の意思決定に活かしましょう。
感情の管理： 投資やトレードは感情のコントロールが重要です。貪欲や恐怖によって誤った判断をすることを避け、冷静な心で市場と向き合いましょう。
ポートフォリオの分散： 単一の資産に依存せず、ポートフォリオを分散させることでリスクを分散し、安定性を確保します。
トレンドの把握： 市場のトレンドを理解し、それに合わせて投資やトレードを行うことが成功の一環です。強いトレンドに乗ることや、逆強弱法を活用することが戦略の一環となります。
これらの原則は、投資やトレードにおいて基本的なガイドとなりますが、個々の投資家やトレーダーの目標やリスク許容度によって異なるアプローチが求められます。