War in Ethiopia—What is the Tigray war? What happened? Why did it happen?
Introduction
I stayed in Ethiopia from 13th of August till the 24th in 2024 mainly to understand the Tigray war that took place from Nov 2020 to Nov 2022.
This article focus on answering questions listed below :
“What is the Tigray war?”
“Why did the war happen?”
“How we can prevent the war from happening again ?”.
I wrote this article mainly by using informations I've gathered in Ethiopia.
The places I visited for interviews were Addis Ababa, Mekelle in the Tigray region, and Adama in the Oromia region.
Writer’s profile
・My name is Hiroaki Itakura.
・A 23 years old living in Tokyo.
・A Japanese student studying politics at Meiji University especially focusing on peace study.
・Interned at a Japanese NGO Accept International
・Interned at a Japanese NGO Interband
1. The course of the war
In 2020-2022, the Tigray war happened and about 0.3-1.5 million people died in the north regional state of Ethiopia, Tigray.
(The number of death is different depending on the people you talk to)
Firstly, I’ll provide an overview of the war.
You can learn about the brief history of Ethiopia on the video below (especially between 1:25-7:00 minutes)
Tension before the war
The TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front), was a political party consisting of Tigrayans that led Ethiopia’s politics for about 30 years, starting in 1991.
In 2018, opposition movements against the TPLF leading government emerged, leading to the election of a new prime minister.
Abiy, whose parents were from Oromo and Amhara, was elected as prime minister.
According to an official from the Japanese Embassy, who is familiar with Ethiopian politics, it appears that the TPLF opposed Abiy's election as prime minister, and there was already tension between them at that point.
In 2020, the government postponed the national elections, citing the spread of the COVID-19.
However, TPLF opposed to it.
One Tigrayan said that not holding the election was unconstitutional.
”The Ethiopian constitution requires that elections be held every five years. Moreover, no neighboring countries had postponed elections due to the COVID-19.”
As a result, the TPLF held its own elections within its region, and the government responded by stopping the transfer of government funds to the Tigray region.
First wave
Before the war started, TPLF started disarming the government troops, which is one part of federal army, having stayed inside Tigray region.
It’s because, according to one Tigrayan, even before the war started, the government had begun deploying troops around the Tigray region. Since there were also government troops inside the Tigray region, TPLF thought they would be caught in a pincer attack.
Before finishing the disarmament, the government started attacking Tigray people, saying that the disarming operation was done without permission of the government and that it’s illegal.
As soon as the fighting began, civilians also became targets.
One Tigrayan said, "Their way is to dry up the sea to catch the fish" referring to the government's targeting of all civilians while condemning the political party, TPLF.
The government allied with multiple actors to fight. The allies included Eritrean troops, Somalia troops, and other regional powers such as Fano, which is a militia of Amhara region.
One Tigrayan said that they fought with 15,000 soldiers against 600,000 government sided soldiers.
During the this battle, TPLF got defeated by the government sided forces and fled to rural area.
Then, they reorganized their forces and led the formation of the TDF(=Tigray Defence force).
The majority of the TDF consists of civilians.
The TPLF had a force of 15,000, but the TDF, with many civilian volunteers, had grown to 200,000.
One Tigrayan explained TDF as :
“It’s the combination of young men and women (18-40 years) trying to defend their family. They included a variety of people such as doctor and unversity professor”
Tigray fought for 8 months and pushed them out once.
A Tigrayan said,
”It’s a miracle. We are not a country. Just a region that pushed back the federal force and other troops.”
This battle is called first wave.
The siege
After TPLF pushed them back, the government used the siege to entire the Tigray state.
The siege means that people inside cannot have access to almost all things from outside. You cannot import foods and fuel, don’t have access to electricity, internet and your money in the banks etc.
It continued for 2 years.
It meant, for example, facing starvation, death due to a lack of medicine or enough treatment at the hospital. Malnutrition due to lack of food could lead to birth defects and miscarriages.
Second wave
As I mentioned, the siege continued for 2 years. “The government used the period for recharging weapons” and started attack again.
”We don't shoot when we find the enemy. We wait until they come close, because we don't have enough bullets.”
This fight is called second wave.
People told me that the second wave was more intense than the first.
End of the war
Few months after the second wave started, TPLF surrendered and they signed the peace treaty with the government.
Second wave finished soon because “Tigray people were totally weakened by the siege.”
2. What happened to people’s lives when the war broke out ?
In this section, I mainly focus on the stories of Tigrayans.
Mr. J(21)
He is one of the people who supported me in my activities in the town of Mekelle. He is a high school student studying car maintenace.
When the first wave started, he lived around Alitena, a place near Eritrean border. He first heard of the war from his solider friend and that the place he lived in would become dangerous.
Then, he went into a more rural area in Tigray and stayed 2 years at his grandmother’s house.
Before the second wave started, he went back to his hometown due to shortage of foods.
However, his house got artillery attacked which led to his father and sister getting injured. Additionally, on the 15th of August, his 2 neighbors died.
He saw houses destroyed everywhere and people dead on the streets.
He took his injured family to a hospital and was terrified to see the hospital filled with people covered in blood.
He used military car to flee to Mekelle, which is the ceentral city of Tigray located below his hometown.
Now he lives with his relatives there. His other family members remain in the northern part of the Tigray region because his relatives' house does not have the capacity to house his entire family.
At IDP (Internal displaced people) camp
Mr. D(28)
He is one of the people I interviewed at the IDP camp.
Q : How did you get affected by the war?
“I worked at a car shop. It’s at the Eritrean border. But I had to move away from my hometown with my family and quitted my job.”
Q : What made you decide to leave your town ?
“It’s because of the increased security risk around there. Eritrean army invaded and kidnappings are still happening. I was also kidnapped by an Eritrean soldier when the war happened."
"They searched TPLF members. They asked each people they kidnapped whether they were TPLF or not.”
Mr. Z(26)
Another person I interviewed at the IDPcamp.
Q : How did you get affected by the war?
“I worked near the Eritrean border at the grocery store I owned. But the forced me to flee my town.”
Q : Did your family also come here?
“All of my family members including my parents and siblings were killed by the Eritrean army’s artillery attack.”
“I watched it from the top of a hill. My grocery store was destroyed as a result. After that, I came here after walking for 10 days.”
Mr. Y(34)
He is the person who provided me with a place to stay in the Tigray region. You can watch the interview with him in the video below.
※You can turn on English subtitles in the settings. Please hit the like button and comment on it !
3. The cause of the war
What made this a tragedy?
There are both domestic and international aspects of the war.
Domestic Aspect 1 (Internal Political Conflicts)
It seems that the war was being triggered by the will of a smaller group of people especially politicians.
(I was unable to speak with politicians, so I won't make any definitive statements.)
One evidence is from IDP people.
When I asked them “why do you think the government and TPLF fought?”,
they answered,
“They are competing for political chairs.”
They don’t think that even their own regional politicians fought for them.
“they (both sides) don’t care about us at all. They only talk about political matters and don't discuss efforts for reconstruction. The food supply is insufficient, and we haven't been able to return home for four years. Not a single government official has come here in these four years.”
However, the exact meaning of competing for "political chairs" is a vague expression, so we can only imagine.
(I imagine that, from the government's perspective, they wanted to weaken TPLF, which was rebellious against the current regime, by arresting as many of its members as possible. On the other hand, TPLF may have wanted to win the fight against the current regime and, for example, appoint a new prime minister from it's member.)
At least, it is clear, to Tigrayans, that the government had planned to launch an attack on the Tigray region. I wrote this above, but one Tigrayan said,
“Even before the war started, the government had begun deploying troops around the Tigray region.”
Additionally, other Tigrayan said,
“During the spread of the Corona Virus, the government hindered the delivery of vaccines and other preventive measures to the Tigray region”. “This war is planned by the government”.
I don’t know the exact number, but many of those who fought as soldiers for Tigray were civilians.
They did not engage in the war due to hostility toward other ethnic groups or because of political status.
For example, if one applied to be a soldier in the TDF, they were given at least some bread.
In times of food shortages, there were people who fought just for bread.
Additionally, I heard the following opinions:
”People fought to protect themselves and to change the situation because they saw or heard about people dying”
”I know a girl in the TDF who became a soldier after her father was killed. You can’t do nothing after that."
Domestic Aspect 2 (Anti-Tigray Propaganda)
Opinion of Tigrayan
A university professor stated that one of the government's motivation for attacking the people of Tigray was to centralize Ethiopia by stripping Tigray of its culture, wealth, and everything else.
He explained that this conflict is a confrontation between the Tigray region, which seeks to maintain its uniqueness, and the government, which aims to homogenize the country and strengthen its dominance.
He told me that this kind of conflict has existed over the 100 years.
Furthermore, he pointed out that anti-Tigray propaganda has been carried out in various places for decades.
For example, media contributed to Ethiopians having a negative impression of Tigrayans by portraying them as snakes.
Of course propaganda could be found during the war.
The propaganda is, for example, if 5% (it indicate population rate of Tigrayans in Ethiopia) were deleted 95% live in peace.
Since the internet was shut out in Tigray, outside people believed the government information and support them without hesitation.
On the other hand, he said that elites supported with knowing that the operation of the government was one of genocide in which specific ethnic group is killed intentionally.
One example is 60,000,000 birr aid from Addis Ababa University to the government.
Other famous universities also supported them.
Opinion of non-Tigrayan
Regarding the propaganda issue, I heard the opinion from a man in Addis Ababa (I will call him Mr.S) that Tigrayans received preferential treatment during the TPLF regime (1991-2018).
Ethiopia experienced 9.4% economic growth annually between 2010 and 2019.
However, according to him, the entire country did not develop equally.
He claimed that some groups, such as Tigrayans, disproportionately benefited from this growth because the top regime is a Tigrayan. Incidentally, I also heard a similar complaint from a taxi driver I happened to ride with.
According to a person from an NGO working across Ethiopia, Mekelle had the second highest development index in Ethiopia (which includes factors such as the broad spread of education and the high number of medical facilities relative to the population)
“The development index in southern Ethiopia is extremely low, and this is something visibly noticeable when you visit the area.”
While some Tigrayans say that the period under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (1991-2012) was peaceful, it is also true that the war with Eritrea (1998-2000) occurred during that period.
Mr.S was forcibly relocated to Eritrea in 1997 due to the conflict with Eritrea. The conflict with Eritrea had an aspect of territorial conflict.
He told me that the government forcibly relocated 70,000 people to reinforce the perception that Ethiopians were living in the contested area.
His family was among the relocated people.
”Because the Eritrean government closed the border, I was unable to return to Ethiopia. I tried to escape twice but was caught at the border and imprisoned.”
“The first time, I was jailed for two years. The second time, I was sentenced to four years but was released after two and a half years. On my third attempt, I was able to return to Ethiopia and that was in 2016.”
“I was shot at five times while crossing the border. I remembers the bullets flying over my head with the sound of it cutting through the air.”
According to him, those conscripted into the Eritrean war were mainly people from Ethiopia’s middle or lower class, and many Tigrayans were able to avoid conscription.
If many people felt those unequal treatment, it likely contributed to their acceptance of the government's anti-Tigrayan propaganda.
External aspect
Tigrayans told me that about 10 countries supported only the government with weapons.
I remember they mentioned American, China, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, and Ukraine.
Each country had a different purpose .
For example, the professor analyzed below:
American : They have an interest for getting money by selling weapons.
China : They want to have an access to natural resources at Tigray where gold and cotton are valuable commodities.
Islamic counties like Saudi Arabia : They want to islamize Ethiopia, one of the few countries dominated by Christianity around Horn of Africa.
As for natural resources, one Tigrayan told me that there is a gold mine between Humera and Shire (both are cities in Tigray).
“Gold miners are making more money than government officials by selling gold illegally to other countries. The Government is trying to solve this problem now.”
“Alibaba group (one of biggest Chinese companies) is involved in this.”
“There aren't enough police forces around Shire which makes it dangerous at night. I've been choked before.”
One Muslim in Ethiopia shared a different perspective on why Saudi Arabia would sell weapons to Ethiopia.
“By supplying weapons to Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia likely aims to increase its regional influence, secure its economic and security interests, and build stronger diplomatic ties with a key African nation. This support fits into a broader strategy of gaining leverage in the Horn of Africa and ensuring stability along key trade routes like the Red Sea rather than islamizing Ethiopia”
4. The aftermath of the war
This section is the not main part of this article, but I wrote this to help understand the war further.
Direct influence
The impact of the war seems to remain, even after peace treaty had contracted.
I heard from a Tigrayan about a woman who broke up with her boyfriend because he struggled with mental composure after experiencing the killing of people on the battlefield. He had developed what is commonly known as PTSD.
During my six-day stay in Mekelle, I saw a young man walking on crutches due to losing one leg.
Mr.Y, whose is interviewed and the interview video can be found above, lost his job during the war and is still searching for one.
Every 200 meters I walk in Addis Ababa, I am approached by beggars about five times. They are mostly elderly or children. Same goes in the Tigray region. (However, since Ethiopia has a very low GDP per capita, this might have been happening even before the war.)
(Mr.Y currently lives in a room shown above)
Extreme Inflation
Post-war inflation is extreme.
A house that costed 11,000,000 birr before the war has now risen to 80,000,000 birr over the past six years.
In Mr.Y's case, due to the rise in rent of his previous place, he was forced to move to his current place. This happened just a few days before my visit.
Before the war, a cup of coffee could be bought for 5 birr, but now it's common to pay over 20 birr.
People leaving
The brain drain of intelligent people is also a problem. Below is stories I heard.
A doctor in Ethiopia had his salary halved from 800 dollars to 400 dollars. He went to Kenya because of an opportunity that would pay him 4 times his current salary.
A businessman mentioned that in recent years, businesses owned by non-Oromo people have been temporarily shut down by government officials for a mysterious investigation.
He needs to wait until the investigation is finished.
Furthermore, they also demanded a bribe of 1,600,000 birr. That’s why he don’t like to do business in Ethiopia and is now business in Kenya.
He also have families that lives in the US.
Actually, almost all of the people I met in Ethiopia want to go to other countries to work and live, and some of their relatives already
live there.
(A girl who helped me out before I went to Ethiopia, 2 tour guides who showed me around in Tigray, a guy who welcomed me at his house in Tigray and his friend and a family who hosted me at Addis Ababa etc.)
They mentioned names of countries such as USA, Canada, Switzerland and France as their destination.
One of the reasons for that is low salary.
Below is example of salaries of Ethiopian people I met.
A High school teacher who is 28 years old get 11,400 birr per month equal to 100 dollars (At the exchange rate in September 2024).
A 22 years old Engineer get 60 dollars per month (At the exchange rate in August 2024)
It seems that the cheapest smartphone in Ethiopia costs around 200 dollars, which shows how low their salaries are compared to the money they need for living.
Low wages are likely influenced, at least in part, by inflation and the lack of domestic jobs due to the conflicts, highlighting the importance of preventing war.
5. Solutions for Continuous Peace
Armed conflicts are still occurring in Ethiopia today, and there is a possibility that a large-scale war like the Tigray War could happen again in the future.
What can you do to achieve sustainable peace?
In the analysis of the causes of conflict, I identified the following four factors as contributors to the escalation of the conflict.
I will consider countermeasures for each.
Political-level conflicts: power struggles.
Hostilities and prejudices at the civilian level made by the propaganda, leading to financial and military support for the war.
Arms exports (for generating revenue from arms sales).
Arms exports (for maintaining influence in business)
Solution 1 : Building connections with influential people, and try to create opportunities to discuss peace
For political-level conflicts as a cause of war, It would be difficult to present a direct solution to it.
However, it is possible to gradually make an effort to build connections with influential people or political figures. It is possible to create relationships with ministers, judges, university professors, entrepreneurs, and experts in various fields.
I believe that if people involved in politics are exposed to a wide range of opinions and peaceful mindsets through daily exchanges of opinions, this could lead to changes at the policy level in the country.
Solution 2 : Providing peace education, and foster a mindset that resists war
When it comes to dealing with hostilities and prejudices at the civilian level, I would suggest providing peace education to the public, particularly focusing on students.
Peace education refers to activities such as passing on the stories of Japan’s experience with the atomic bomb to future generations.
It involves preserving the powerful words of those affected, detailing how many people lost their lives and the lasting effects suffered by the survivors.
This would offer students the opportunity to learn these lessons.
If people outside of Tigray region could learn about the experiences of Tigrayans, it would increase the number of individuals who inherently oppose war.
It could arise a strong resistance movement when the government attempts to start a war.
Furthermore, the propaganda spread by the media is believed to have contributed to the worsening of the conflict, but by sharing these lessons, people could learn to critically assess media information in the future.
Giving a lecture in classrooms or creating a platform to share war related stories are solutions that could be implemented right now.
I’m planing to take on those actions.
Solution 3 : Strong international law for arms export control, and the enforcement of related regulations.
The solution for arms exports would be to create strong international laws that prohibit the export of arms that contribute to the escalation of conflicts, and to establish a system to ensure compliance with these laws.
There is already an international treaty called the ATT (Arms Trade Treaty) that bans illegal arms transactions.
However, while 115 countries are signatories to this treaty among 196 countries, major arms exporters like the United States are not among them.
Additionally, arms exports during the Tigray war were not prevented, indicating significant room for improvement.
Furthermore, as long as I judge from experiences of Tigrayans, what happened in Tigray is genocide, and genocide is prohibited by the Genocide Convention, an international law.
For example, the government subjected all Tigrayans to siege, but the act of placing a specific ethnic group in physically and mentally harsh conditions is defined as genocide.
Any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Countries like the United States of America and China, which were mentioned as exporters of arms to the Ethiopian government during the Tigray war, are signatories to this convention.
Considering this, the fact that countries that are parties to the Genocide Convention supported genocide should be legally prosecuted.
Isn't it only natural for those who violate international law to be held accountable and for victims to be appropriately compensated ?
Why isn't this being realized ?
This was not something I could fully understand through the interviews in Ethiopia alone.
In conclusion, what I can do next about solution 3 is as follows:
Understanding how the decision-making process for arms trades were carried out. (Were these countries deceived by the government propaganda into exporting arms, or were there motives to gain profit from arms exports ?)
Contributing to the creation of a system that monitors and prevents inhumane arms deals that contribute to genocide before the weapons are exported. To do this, I need to connect with people involved in creating such systems and further study about the related international laws.
Contributing to the creation of a system that ensures accountability and compensation for the damage caused by arms deals that resulted in such atrocities.
6. Post-war recovery
Of course it’s important to do actions for reconstruction.
Recovery of usual life
People at the IDP camp requires two things.
Appropriate amount of foods
Returning back to their hometown and restart life as it was before
They have been provided with only 12 kilograms of food per month and have been living on one meal a day for four years.
Also, they said that the area where they used to live is still unsafe, and they don’t think it’s good to return now.
Mental Healing
I met a Tigray woman who started a project trying to heal people’s mind affected by the war by using art.
She hold classes and 120 children participate.
“One of classes gives an opportunity for participants to express their feelings and trauma using art, then we promote them to find solutions and focus on the future. We mainly focus to change negative to positive.”
“Through the about 7 days sessions here, we have seen them being healed."
"After the session is over, when we tell them to go home, they say they don’t want to leave. They want to stay here and spend more time. That shows you how comfortable they became!”
If you visit the Tigray region, be sure to check out Minya Art Space. You can also see their activities on SNS. Follow them !
7. Afterword
Contact me !
I would love to connect with those interested in working towards conflict resolution, so please feel free to follow me on Facebook.
I plan to gradually increase activities related to peace education, so if you are interested in collaborating, don’t hesitate to reach out.
I also welcome comments on the article or any additional information.
Information source
Thanks to everyone who assisted me with acquiring information and making my days in Ethiopia comfortable🙌
I didn’t write about all people. But I tried to have broader perspective by engaging with a variety of people including young and old generations; people in Addis Ababa, Oromia and Tigray.
I discussed with a business owner, a young doctor, an office worker, a university professor,a lawyer, people from IDP camps, NGO workers and an official from the Japanese Embassy researching Ethiopian Political Affairs etc.
Please press the like and comment on this ! :)