コンテナ船運賃
コンテナ船市況において、今春以降続いていた運賃上昇に陰りが見え始めています。上海航運交易所が発表するSCFI（上海コンテナ運賃指数）によると、7月12日付の総合指標は、今年3月末以来初めて前週比マイナスとなりました。上海発の北米向けや地中海向けの運賃が下落に転じています。
ドゥルーリーのWCI（世界コンテナ指数）でも、上海発ロッテルダム向けの運賃が微減に転じ、他の航路の上昇率も鈍化傾向にあります。一時的な現象との見方もある一方で、運賃がピークに達したとの意見も出ています。
背景には、以下の要因が考えられます：
新造コンテナ船の就航による供給増加
在庫水準の上昇に伴う荷動きの落ち着き
早めのピークシーズン到来
しかし、以下の懸念材料も存在します：
喜望峰での悪天候によるリスク
アジア主要港湾の混雑継続
欧州やカナダでのストライキ懸念
北米東岸港湾の労使交渉停滞
運賃の急騰は一時的に落ち着いたものの、高止まりはしばらく続く可能性があります。今後の需給バランスや外部要因の影響を注視する必要があります。
Container Shipping Rates: Signs of Slowing Growth, Possibly Reaching Peak
The container shipping market is showing signs of a slowdown in the freight rate increases that have persisted since this spring. According to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the composite index as of July 12 decreased week-on-week for the first time since late March this year. Rates for routes from Shanghai to North America and the Mediterranean have begun to decline.
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) also shows a slight decrease in rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam, with growth rates for other routes slowing as well. While some view this as a temporary phenomenon, others suggest that freight rates may have reached their peak.
Key factors contributing to this trend include:
Increased supply due to the introduction of newly built container ships
Stabilizing cargo movement as inventory levels rise
An earlier start to the peak season
However, several concerns remain:
Weather-related risks around the Cape of Good Hope
Ongoing congestion at major Asian ports
Strike concerns in Europe and Canada
Stalled labor negotiations at North American East Coast ports
Although the rapid increase in freight rates has temporarily subsided, they may remain at elevated levels for some time. It is crucial to monitor future supply and demand balance and the impact of external factors on the market.
