Feb. 2020／Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara (President, the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum)

As one of Japanese NGOs, called "Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum," we have had "lifelong learning" lectures every month since 2015.

Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara, President at the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum" are as follows:

Introduction

Good morning, everyone. I think this week will be the last time we can get together in Tokyo like this mood. I think today and tomorrow will be the last, and next week will be the real panic mode in Japan. Well, thanks to the Internet and the blockchain, I think Japan will continue to evolve. Since we are all here today, I would like to “enjoy” the lingering feeling of the Heisei era.

There's the virus, but there are some other very big problems right now. The first one is this virus. It is coronavirus disease (COVID-19). There is no end in sight at the moment. In China, it's growing. We don't know when the peak of spread infection will be. Therefore, the situation is completely unpredictable. The second is the outbreak of locusts. At first, there was a locust plague in Africa, and now they're in the Middle East and in Pakistan, and they're going to northwestern China. They eat all the food. Since they eat all the grass as well, it's not going to seem to end at all.

These two things have caused the economy to stop. The economy has come to a standstill, and an industrial depression and a depression in people's lives have already started due to the Great Financial Depression. The financial sector has had major problems for some time, so this is a fatal blow. The economy has already stopped. It will take some time for everyone to realize that the global financial and trade markets have basically stopped. Therefore, it will be no use struggling this year. Nothing will start unless we are unflappable. As I’ve said before, the order of priority is life, livelihood, and economy. I think we have no choice but to look back on the Great East Japan Earthquake, think about it, and try not to make a mistake in this order.

Coronavirus, massive locust outbreak, economic shutdown, and the other one is political upheaval. In Japan, not only the Abe Cabinet but also the government offices are completely uncommitted, and not only the Liberal Democratic Party but also both the ruling and opposition parties are uncommitted. In the United States, for example, so-called socialism is gaining full strength. It is democratic socialism. Therefore, there is no doubt that there will be a huge fluctuation after this virus is over. It's an extreme change in politics.

And the fifth one is Armageddon in the Middle East. They’re serious about this. Everyone is seriously preparing for the final war in the Middle East. That's why some people try to stop it, but it doesn't stop after all. Since many people read the Bible, they probably think, "Well, this is it". The Middle East war is not going to stop. That’s why these five things I just mentioned are probably coming this year.

The sixth one is, do you know that big earthquakes occur all over the world? There are big earthquakes and volcanic eruptions all over the world now. Well, this kind of things get stuck in the middle. Therefore, as I mentioned before about the meaning of the era name Reiwa, the Chinese character of Rei in the letters Reiwa means that people kneel down to listen to the voice of God. I really feel that way now.

Some people say, "It's going to be tough from now on." but there are many companies, countries, and governments that end up chanting the mantra "Oh, my God. Oh, my God". That's true. There are quite a few companies that end up saying "Oh, my God. Oh, my God." and the government is the same. "Oh, my God." doesn't really work. Even though saying "Oh, my God" may ease to someone's mind, the word "Oh, my God." is just comforting. So what do you do? In the case of a virus, what to do is to run away. It is to stay away from places where there are likely to be viruses. More importantly, though, you'll be tested to see how much you've built up your immune system. This is a test of how much effort you have made in your daily life to improve your immunity. This is for each person. If there is any problem, we have no choice but to change it to the way to enhance immunity.

The locust plagues are like the forest fires in Australia, and the natural ecosystem is changing drastically now. Then, including food, it is dangerous to do something on a large scale. It is very dangerous to threaten the natural ecosystem. After all, we have to make sure that we can live without chaos. In other words, we have to remake everything from land use to the production system so that we can live without chaos of the environment. We must make it more sustainable.

Because the economy will stop, the situation in Japan is the same as the Showa Depression, such as the financial crisis in 1927 and the economic crisis in 1930. The first priority is life. Next is livelihood and economy in order. China is already short of food. They don't have enough, so the situation will be like hell from now on. Therefore, the food crisis is definitely coming. Then, after that, what is called the life depression, the necessary things for life will not be available. Wuhan is already like that. They're already unable to get the bare necessities for their lives. As was the case with the Great East Japan Earthquake, even if we rely on the government or companies, we will not be able to obtain even the things we need for our lives, so we need to think about how we can secure those things through horizontal ties. We need to think about how to prevent people from starving to death. As in the case of infected people, how to protect starving people will become a big issue.

Also, I think there are quite a few things that will not restart after this economic shutdown. There are a lot of things that end here. That's why the companies, countries, and governments that will restart after this are only those that can adapt to the new era. For that reason, please evaluate it at this stage. If the people above your organization say only "It's no big deal." or only "Oh, my God." and do nothing, I think these organizations will end soon. They keep saying "Oh, my God. Oh, my God." to the end. Companies that keep saying things like, "It's no big deal." or "Oh, my God." will end up doing that. At this stage, I think it is better to give up where the top of the company is saying such a thing. From there, it's better to do it yourself. The only way to survive is to do it yourself. There is no other way but to think about the future and carry on by yourself.

I'm not saying you should start your own business, but you should find your own way, find good friends, analyze the information in your own way, and act on your own. Because of the lack of this power, there are people who can only say "Oh, my God." and "It's no big deal". Even in the era of Reiwa, they have already lost the power to live. If they don't change their minds and stay at the same zone, they won't restart again.

Regarding the political upheaval, I don't know if it will go smoothly. In the case of Japan, it's just a matter of meltdown since it's just a mess. For example, I think that the Olympics will be cancelled. When that happens, they will argue with each other saying, "It's your fault. It's his/her fault." And the internal squabble will start. Do you think there's anything else after that? After all, those people over there can't do anything, just say "It's his/her fault. It's their fault." to each other and the whole thing sinks.

But the problem is China. The Communist Party will not be maintained any more. It's a country under state control, so I think the infrastructure will stop if it collapses. If the infrastructure stops, I think people will starve to death one after another in that country. Although they are trying to prevent the release of disastrous information, it is a disastrous situation. Mao Zedong died and the Cultural Revolution ended. Now that the power of the state has reached its limit, there is a possibility of a so-called revolution.

The U.S. is the same. Mr. Trump is on the right, Bernie Sanders is on the left, and this fall's presidential election could be a clash between the right and the left. There is a possibility of a collision. As far as finance is concerned, it's just the same as the economy, and the people who just panicked are just buying stocks. There is no particular reason, and the economy has stopped due to the terrible recession, so they'll fall somewhere. But if it falls, Mr. Trump will be in danger, so the buying support continues. However, what is bad is bad and they still have plenty of time until fall. It's only been 3 weeks since Wuhan locked down. It's highly contagious and extremely powerful. Therefore, they still have time until fall. I wonder what will happen to the political changes in the United States and the world. In any case, I think that the big flow is from right to left. In short, the days when some people in power and those with money could do something have already ended. From now on, we have to do something by ourselves regardless of money. There will be a labor union, so the left one will come.

Regarding the final war in the Middle East, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution to stop the war. The resolution limits the president's authority to go to war, but I think Trump thinks there's no way out. In short, something like rabies is going around in the U.S. military in Israel. There is no way to stop it. Now, I think they are ready, as the biblical prophecy says. That's why Russia is watching closely, and Turkey is fiddling around, so if it's not done right, Turkey will get involved. Well, Turkey is already involved. As for the timing, I think it will be within this year. I think it's impossible to keep the current situation until next year. Iran, the U.S., and Russia are so-called freaking out. Therefore, it will probably be within this year. Israel will hold a general election in March, so I think that the next month or two will be a climax. For that reason, this will be the defeat of the U.S.

Since last September, the economy has almost stopped. On September 14th last year, Iranian missiles and drones flew into the oil-processing facilities in Saudi Arabia. American weapons could neither intercept nor even detect. The financial crisis started on the following Monday. Over the next six months, the Fed's liquidity supply has exceeded $400 billion. That's 44 trillion yen. This is equivalent to the 47 trillion yen that the Bush administration decided to inject at the time of the Lehman Shock. For that reason, the crisis is already happening and the world is stuck.

Recently, around February 3rd, after the Lunar New Year holiday, the Fed has been pouring in a lot of money. The economy has been seriously stuck. Therefore, it's the last monetary transfusion from the Fed. It's just the last monetary transfusion, so it's clear that the U.S. has lost. The U.S. can't win. That's why Mr. Trump has always accelerating a withdrawal of American forces by saying, "American military forces are going to pull out. We're pulling out”. He's been saying this since before he became president. But these crazy people keep saying, "No, we can still win". They seem to be the last of the Japanese Army. Well, I think it will be settled by the end of the year. Because the U.S. will lose, everyone will go home. It means that everyone will withdraw. Even in South Korea, there are about 9,000 employees at the base. These people in the U.S. military base in South Korea will be on unpaid leave after April 1st. The unpaid leave after April 1st means that the U.S. military bases over there will be closed by the end of March. It's moving fast. It accelerates rapidly.

In the end, major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis may occur. These have been very common recently. There are many natural disasters like these recently. It happens so often around the world that we wonder what's going on. In short, there will be a big change here. For example, at the end of the Edo period, there were tremendous events, such as economic crises, infectious diseases, political upheavals, wars, and Ansei earthquakes. Therefore, in fact, this is not that unusual. The occurrence of such a phenomenon merely means that we are at the turning point of a great age. In other words, we don't know whether we live or die. Nobody knows.

But if we survive, we have to take over from one generation to the next. Therefore, if you want to live healthily in the future, it is important to think about what you will do in the future and prepare for it. I don't think there is any other way. Saying "Oh, my God." or "Unexpected." doesn't help, so it's important to think a little further ahead. For that reason, things are overlapping at the same time.

Well, first of all, I'd like you to take a look at the screen in front of you. This site is said to be the first to report the number of infected people and the number of deaths in China. As far as I know, there was a strange virus in Wuhan at the end of November last year. I heard that there was a seafood market selling various things and the infection spread from there. By late December of last year, it had already spread considerably. It was the same as the current Japanese government, and the government ignored it. The Wuhan government has been ignoring since then, and it has been said that the figures announced by the government are quite different from the actual situation. It has been said since then that the actual number is 10 to 100 times that announced by the government. It is said that 10 to 100 times the figure announced by the government is the real figure.

Then, it says there are 66,576 infected people, so the actual number might be 660,000 or 6.6 million. It is said that about 1,500 people died, so 15000 to 150,000 people died. I think that makes sense. This, however, shows no sign of abating. Three weeks have passed since Wuhan city was locked down. This red is the number of infected people, and it started to decrease from here, but the government lied. Because the government reduced the number by lying, there was a public anger to restore the statistics. Then it increased this much. There are several reasons why the number of infected people and the number of deaths are increasing even if the city is locked down. In other words, there are many cases where people are infected from near places such as in the community or at home. And then, it may fly far away by airborne infection.

I've been looking at this virus map from the beginning. And I've been looking at this map since the beginning, and I've been wondering a lot about it. This area is Hubei where Wuhan is. There were many infected patients from the beginning in Heilongjiang Province. From the beginning, there were many infected people in Heilongjiang Province, the most northeastern part. Also, in Wenzhou in Zhejiang province, there were many infected people following Wuhan. They're all on the east side. In the west, in Tibet, there have been not so many infected people so far. In Tibet, there are no patients now. There were one or two of them, but they were either cured or dead. Heilongjiang Province has Xing'anling Mountains. I think the virus is flying to the east by riding the westerlies. It's kind of suspicious. The east side is highly infected.

Well, since the Yangtze River runs from Sichuan Province to Shanghai, it's natural that the infection spreads around there. There's also traffic from north to south, so there's also infection from artificial sources. There are many infected people from the beginning in Heilongjiang Province. I wonder it is affected by wind. And recently, the number of patients has increased rapidly in Hainan Island. There is a story that the Chinese navy was infected. When I look at the current situation, the Chinese Air Force often appears in the Communist Party media, but the Chinese Navy does not. It's not a cruise ship, but if the infection starts on a navy ship, there's no way. But there is a news that an aircraft carrier got infected. A Chinese aircraft carrier was infected. That's why they're in Hainan Island. That's why the infection of ordinary citizens of Hainan Island is rapidly increasing. Therefore, I wonder it's how the spread of this infection will be.

If you look at the number of infected people by country, Japan is the second largest country after China, including the Diamond Princess infection. There are 253. The number of infected people has been increasing since they’ve been trapped in the diamond princess. That must be an airborne infection. Japan is responsible for that. In that case, Japanese people may not be able to go abroad. In short, Japan is a country where epidemic prevention has failed. Since it is a country that failed to stop infection, it means that there are infected people everywhere. In that case, Japanese people may not be able to go abroad for a long time.

Now, you know, island countries like Micronesia and the south have stopped Japanese from entering the country. Actually, just as ships are in trouble, islands are in trouble. If infectious disease occurs on an island, it could be completely destroyed. That's why islands are hard to deal with. For example, Okinawa, Miyako-island, Ishigaki-island, they really have to be careful. If it spreads out in the island, it's really hard. For that reason, the islands of Micronesia and the Pacific are prohibited for Japanese to enter. I think it's just a matter of time in the U.S. and Europe. I wonder what will happen next week and after. Well, as I said earlier, priority is given to life, livelihood, and economy, so you don’t have to go anywhere for a while and just stay still. Why don't you chant Heart Sutra?

Singapore is the second most after Japan. Well, most of the infected passengers are on board the Diamond Princess, and except for that, the number of infected people in Japan now is between South Korea and Thailand. That's the situation, but Japan didn't do epidemiological research anyway. The government thought, "It's no big deal". It's not just flu. Unlike normal flu, it sometimes causes pneumonia and sometimes infected people suddenly die. Also, when you get pneumonia, it causes diseases in other organs and your immune system is weakened, so you may die of an “impossible” disease in no time. You shouldn't take it so lightly. If you think that it's just influenza, it's a terrible story. This is a dangerous virus. That's why people fall down and die in China.

That's why the Japanese government underestimated this. They wanted to do the Olympics. Mr. Yoshiro Mori said, "The Olympics are on schedule". Also, Ome Marathon will be held tomorrow. It's not the participants' responsibility. The infection spreads again when the participants go home. The infection spreads from the trains on the way back. It becomes an explosive infection. So, to be frank, it's best not to go to the office from Monday. It is to stay at home for a while. People in East Japan didn't go out when the atomic bomb was blown away at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake. I believe that's the best. There is no other effective way. It’s best to stay at home until the rampage subsides. Seriously, that's the best way. If you survive, there is a way to manage the company. But if they go around and die like crazy, it won't pay off. The normalcy bias is the most dangerous thing. The most dangerous thing is to chant "No big deal." The spell "No big deal." doesn't help. "It's no big deal." is not the mantra of Buddha. It's no use saying that. Also, even if you say "Oh, my God." no one will help you. More than that, you should think and act by yourself.

As for the progression of the disease, there are many unclear points. It's been about 3 weeks since Wuhan's lockdown. Doctors in Wuhan has reported various things. I think it was about 10 days after the lockdown. It's almost exactly what we're hearing now: first, the disease is mild for a week after it begins. There is a difference between being cured or in critical condition in the second week. It gets worse in the second week, and those with strong immunity can be cured there. On the other hand, people with weak immunity or with various complications are going to be in critical condition. That's why it gets serious and worse. During this severe condition, they need to inhale oxygen because it's a lung disease. They should take oxygen and try not to make their condition worse.

Three weeks is the crossroad between life and death, and the immune system will stop working. It’s said that multiple organ failure will occur. Then doctors can do nothing and the seriously ill die. On the other hand, if a patient stays immune, there is a road to recovery. But it is very dangerous if you don't receive a coping therapy after the second week. For example, they say that it is difficult if it is not treated properly with coping therapy because the lungs are already painful, the kidneys are damaged, or the heart is weak. So, "Please come to the hospital if you get serious". That's what Wuhan doctors said. So, to tell you the truth, you should go to the hospital even if you are in a "mild" condition. If you think it is a virus, you should be monitored and managed properly. Therefore, it is better to control it from a mild condition.

But in short, since this is a coping therapy, it takes a lot of time and effort. For that reason, the medical care in Wuhan has been completely exhausted since the first 10 days. It's not the 10th day, but a few days after it's locked down, the medical treatment has been flooded. Even if people go to the hospital in the morning, they don't know whether or not they can get treatment on that day. It was only a few days after the lockdown that they didn't know if they would be treated. What happened after that was that they were told not to go out by region, and in Wuhan today, they are only allowed to go to the hospitals in their area. That's why there are many people who are not treated. So, to be honest, the persons who got it earlier were better. They got treated. On the other hand, those who got it later can't get treatment at all. This part is very difficult. Because it is a virus, there are two ways to cure or exterminate it.

What would everyone do if classical Swine fever, more commonly known as hog cholera or bird flu breaks out? It's a slaughter. That kind of thing happens. In short, there is a belief that the first thing to think about is not to spread any more even if the number of people who can't be treated increases and the number of people who die increases. So, looking at Wuhan, I think it's been like that since the end of Spring Festival. That means, for example, Wuhan established a hospital. The hospital was built in 10 days. It is standing right next to the water source of Wuhan, so I don't know it well. That is called a hospital, but there is no outpatient department. It's all under the control of the military. It is a mysterious hospital with iron bars and each room is locked to prevent it from opening. About a week ago, an insider doctor gave a photo article on the Internet as a whistleblower. According to the article, 200 ~ 300 people die there every day. That's why almost all the patients who enter there, die. The army keeps coming and carrying them out. That expression also means to carry out alive. In the article, it's not written that they are carried out after death. Therefore, there is a possibility that they’re taken out alive. And when they're gone, new patients come in until they're all full again.

And if that's true, it's the same concentration camp in Nazi Germany. It is a place to leave it until you die. And if that's true, it's the same concentration camp in Nazi Germany. It's a place that people stay until they die. Nazi Germany wanted to slaughter the Jews from the beginning. The concentration camps led them work for a while or led them wait for their turn until they die. Even, some people were sent to the gas room as soon as they arrived at the camp. That is the ultimate prevention of epidemics. In short, they control people who can't be treated any more so that they can't go out and eventually kill them. There is a great possibility that Wuhan is doing it this time. I thought it was suspicious that army doctors have been there from the beginning. I thought it was suspicious because army surgeons give both treatment and extermination. That hospital is not only there now. There are many, and some of them use a gymnasium or something. There are a lot of beds all over the place. Medical workers wear white protective clothing with goggles. On the other hand, each hospitalized patient has only one small mask. This is where they're waiting to die because there's no medical care. They don't provide medical treatment at all. There are neither nurses nor doctors. People like janitors wear white protective clothing and do a lot of things. I thought this was terrible.

Therefore, it's true that infectious diseases are scary. You shouldn't take it so lightly. As for what has happened in China since then, many strange things have happened. Most people are healthy, actually. However, they're trapped in the house and get bored. They can't go to work either, so many people post on the internet. They also take a video and upload it. Therefore, whatever the Communist Party says, this story is already pouring out more and more information from below. I'd like to share with you what I know now. Because the economy has stopped, they are short of food. They are running short of necessities. Farmers are unable to ship farm products. Cities are running out of food. This is the same as the Showa Depression in 1930. Just like the Great Depression in the United States, the economy has stopped. Therefore, although there was an economic suspension due to the stock market crash and the financial crisis, this time the economic suspension was due to the plague.

Also, since both ports and airplanes have stopped, imported goods have stopped in China. This affects other countries as well, and it's a serious problem in Japan, the United States, and Europe because no parts or items come from China. But even in China, things don't come in and it's hard. And according to various statements by the Communist Party, the Air Force has been very active in the last few days. The Air Force is very active in carrying people and goods. And the heads of Wuhan and Hubei were fired, and the mayor of Shanghai is taking over. In short, it is a state of martial law under the direct control of the state. It is said that the army will manage it. So that means the local administrations in Hubei and Wuhan are collapsing. In short, the collapse of the local administration means that the number of patients is not decreasing even though quarantine is being carried out. I think food and other supplies are running short. That’s why the Air Force is carrying them I think.

As for the ship, it doesn't come out. Since there is Yangtze River, food and other supplies can be carried by ship but the ship doesn't come out. That's why I wonder if the ship is also infected with something. I'm not sure. In any case, there is no doubt that a life-threatening crisis due to the economic standstill and a humanitarian crisis have already hit Wuhan and Hubei Province. This is also likely to spread. In some parts of Shanghai, it's completely locked down. Beijing is also like that. The Beijing government is saying, "Let's get production back on track." But people can't go to work. It's a mess and the Beijing government is in a panic. Therefore, there is nothing we can do in such a case. It is best to put life first and do nothing. It's the same as the nuclear accident. You should protect your life without going to work under the current situation. When food and supplies are running short, and the military is on the verge of becoming infected, it is best to prevent infection and not to lower your immune system. As for epidemic prevention, there is a possibility that they wait for death without treatment, or even in some cases they may be killed by others.

In a satellite photo, the concentration of sulfur dioxide has gone up in Hubei and around Wuhan. There was a time when the concentration of sulfur dioxide became unusually high, at night. There is also information that the bodies might be burned in the field since the crematorium is not in time. That's possible. Then, when there was a big fuss on the Internet about this, sulfur dioxide stopped coming out. It may be said that the bodies might be buried this time. Therefore, you should think that this is a terrible humanitarian crisis. There is no prospect for the recovery of the patient. Also, there are people who are going crazy in Wuhan. Arson often happens in Wuhan. It seems that many people set fire to their own houses. In addition, a person who was quarantined tried to escape from the room and went out from the window of the upper floor of the apartment, and when he tried to move to the lower floor, he fell and died. What's more, a pessimistic young man suddenly jumped out of a window and committed suicide. Another person who has a lot of 100 yuan bills that are more than 30 cm in height said, “Now I'm close to death." and suddenly threw it out the window. What’s more, another person made a paper plane with a 100 yuan bill and flew it one by one. That's terrible.

And then, the quarantine is going to break people's minds. They’re leaving. When they leave, the police will catch them, beat them, and turn them over. Even if the mask doesn't work, the law says, "Put on your mask". If someone doesn't wear a mask, the people around him/her, not the police, beat him/her up. People from Hubei are beat up everywhere. People from Hubei Province have suffered damage like a street violence against middle-aged men. If they hide in relatives, they will be dragged out. And when the cured person comes back home, the villagers won't let him/her in. They say "we don't trust that". And the lock-down of the areas came suddenly. That's why there are so many people who can't go home all over China. People who can't go home seem to be homeless with nothing but their clothes. There's no food, no water, no heating, they're like homeless. It looks like it's going crazy. But at least, what I can really say is that they're still getting infected. The infection hasn't decreased and it's still a deadly virus. For now, the official statistics show that the death rate is in the low 2% range, but we don't really know. The death rate may go up. Therefore, I believe there is no other way but to maintain immunity.

The Japanese government says various things, but in short, people who can't do anything usually waver just by saying "No big deal." and "Oh, my God." They say only 2 words: "No big deal." or " Oh, my God." They can't do anything after all. Both the Abe Cabinet and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare are like that. It is important to stay away from places where people go back and forth between these 2 words, "No big deal." and "Oh, my God." Being under a leader like this is the worst thing you can do, so you have to act on your own as much as possible. For example, in China, the emergence of blockchain is becoming more and more active, and it’s used throughout the country. For example, it’s also introduced in this article (China Turns to Blockchain as Coronavirus Spins Out of Control). Both the public and the private sector, including schools, are using blockchain to support their livelihoods, management and relief. Also, blockchain is used for aid and spreads like wildfire. In China, the blockchain was very advanced. It's been a big help. On the other hand, Japan hasn't made much progress.

That's why there is nothing when the government is stopped. But since China is a communist party, no one trusts the country even though they listen to what the government says. In that sense, the idea of "You have to be autonomous." is very strong among Americans, Europeans and Chinese. That's why they're doing those things. Frankly speaking, we don't know how long the Japanese government will stop. To be honest, I don't know if there is anyone who can say anything other than "No big deal." or "Oh, my God." that will deal with this chaos after politics has melted down. I’m very pessimistic about the current government office and politicians. So, it might be worse than the Meiji Restoration. I think it might be worse than 1945. So, I think you can see the situation in about a month. In other words, if there is a decent person, someone who can say something other than "No big deal." or "Oh, my God." will appear in the past one month or so. If so, I think he/she can manage a little. If not, I think that goes without saying. The same goes for companies is the same, and I think this one month is the crucial period for the survival of organizations in Japan.

In areas like blockchain, enthusiasts are working hard. At any time, people with strong feelings act strongly. In Shanghai, school is closed until May 1. As a decision now, the school will be closed until May 1 for the time being. For that reason, teachers in Shanghai are preparing for online classes now. In short, it's the most dangerous thing to gather around, so there's plenty you can do online at home. The blockchain is a management system, so you don't have to go to work. One of the best things about blockchain is that it can manage without someone coming to the center of the work. It's a distributed system. I think this will spread to be used. Therefore, including China, this kind of thing will spread in the U.S. and Europe, and I think someone will start doing it in Japan soon.

We've had the experience of the Great East Japan Earthquake, so even if it's not a blockchain, we have a pretty horizontal network. Therefore, as an image, I think it is the same situation as the Great East Japan Earthquake. When that terrible earthquake and tsunami, the nuclear power plant accident happened at the same time, and the Japanese government stopped functioning. The Japanese government didn't give us any information or any goods. Since then, various local government offices, chambers of commerce and industry, connected to the government almost stopped functioning as well. Most of the leaders at that time on the so-called the top of pyramid were dysfunctional and unable to do anything. On the other hand, those who supported the disaster areas were the leaders rising from below. Actually, the afternoon plan for this month's study session was decided to be this simulation game before. It's just a coincidence, but I think you will feel more real when you experience the game in the current situation. Therefore, what's happening now is that the leaders will be replaced again. At the meantime, we still don't know how long this virus will last or how bad it will get.

（１）The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

・What is Known or Unknown until now
・Humanitarian Crisis Grows
・Significant Impacts on Our lives, Economy and Politics

As described in the document I handed out, it means that everything will stop once. It's starting to stop now. It stopped quite a bit. Life, economy and politics have stopped. That's why the world is now like the Great East Japan Earthquake. That's why the situation in Wuhan now seems to be the nuclear power plant in Fukushima at that time. There are hot spots everywhere. It was probably the same then. Radioactivity began to flow here and there, creating hot spots everywhere. That kind of thing is happening mainly in Wuhan now. That's too bad. Therefore, things will not move this year, and it is impossible to manufacture or sell in this situation. Just like the Great East Japan Earthquake, if you want to survive, you have to change your mind. First of all, it's important not to push yourself too hard. That's why the price of things is getting lower. Oil is going down, iron is going down, copper is going down, and everything is going down. Also, marine fares have been greatly reduced.

（２）Drift of the Japanese Government

・Viruses, Olympics, Scandals
・In Nagatacho, Only Personnel Affairs has been Talked of What to Do Next.
・Japan's Consequences of the Dollar and the Withdrawal of U.S. Forces

Also, regarding the Japanese government, it makes no sense to talk about viruses, Olympics and scandals. It started with the scandal of the cherry blossom viewing party, and there has been a big fight between Mr. Abe and Mr. Kan. Then, there is a story that Mr. Abe is no good and Mr. Suga is next, but Mr. Ishiba also exists. I think they can change the top if they want, but in short, what I want to tell you is the second one in today’s resume. As for what to do next, I've only heard about personnel affairs. People who can only say "No big deal." and "Oh, my God." only talk about personnel matters about who will do the next thing. There are so many places like that now. I hate to tell you this, but please take a look at Nissan. Have you heard anything other than personnel affairs? Have you heard anything else about who is going to be the next president or the next board member? Have you heard anything positive about Nissan? Therefore, the organization that only talks about personnel affairs is over at this stage. It is the same as the end of Tokugawa. It must have been the only subject of much debate as to which house the fifteenth Shogun should come from. That's why they were unable to do anything when it happened.

To be honest with you, the LDP right now may be better than Mr. Abe, but they're just talking about what kind of position they'd like to take and personnel matters. There are about 700 people in the Diet. There are definitely infected people among them. There are definitely infected people in the official residence and the government office. They fall silent when it comes to that kind of situation. They say nothing more, so what will happen? When something finally starts at their feet, they sink into silence. You can't rely on them. They’re not reliable at all. That's why they fall silent after saying, "No big deal." and "Oh, my God." I think you can see one of those things in the past one month or so. I would like to ask Mr. Taro Yamamoto to do his best in reorganizing the political world. I'm afraid there's no one else. But he can't do it all by himself, so the horizontal network at each level is important. In the case of Japan, blockchain has not spread at all, but the experience of the Great East Japan Earthquake is a strength. At that time, everyone was connected to the horizontal network and did various things from the bottom, such as rescue support. Therefore, those hard and tremendous experiences we had will surely be utilized at this time.

That's why Japan is an analog type. As an analog type, Japan is where the people and thoughts that spring up from the bottom are shaped into the future. The same goes for companies and organizations. With such employees, the company has the next road. Where there are no such employees, it will be over. Whether someone wants to revive the company or no one cares about it is the huge difference between survival and death. For example, the areas affected by earthquakes are also divided. In areas where there were people who were able to act out their thoughts, these areas are still somehow on track. On the other hand, in the case of the area where there are no such people, there are some areas where nothing was born and the land is still a wasteland after the tsunami. In some areas, nobody is around. If the residents say it's something that the region decides, there are things that can't be helped from outside. There is no way to fix it once the residents say, "We're done here." even though the people from outside say they can help. If the residents say, "All right, we're leaving," that's all. It's the same with the company. If people inside say, "That's enough. I'm going somewhere else." that's it. So, if the people inside were to try to fix it, there would still be support, but if they say, "That's enough. I'm going somewhere else." that's all. That's why I think it's important to have a clear view about that and it will be about a month from now.

Now, let's talk about the dollar and the withdrawal of U.S. forces. The final war in the Middle East that I talked about earlier is a very big story. The withdrawal of U.S. forces is the first of Trump's pledges. The last point of the pledge is the final war in the Middle East. It's a battle between Iran and Israel. The game is up. Israel and the American warmongers say things like, "We are going to fight a homeland battle." That's why it's the way it is now. As Mr. Trump says, they should leave everything as soon as possible because they don't have a chance. However, they are still saying something like that. To be frank, it's like the Japanese army in 1945. Well, in August 1944, what if the war had ended, the atomic bomb would not have fallen. The tragedy of Manchuria would not have happened. And there would have been no air raids. There would have been no air raids all over Japan. If the war had ended a year ago, many people would have been saved. Many people would have survived what if they would have decided to end immediately when they were severely defeated in both land and sea battles in Philippines at the end of 1944. The Army lost in Philippines, and the Japanese Navy completely lost its combat capability at the end of 1944.

However, they said, "There is still Manchuria." and they even dug the Matsushiro Imperial headquarters. In the end, the atomic bombs were dropped to a disastrous extent. Manchuria became terrible, and Karafuto became terrible as well. That's why this kind of thing makes the end miserable. The crazy military wreaked havoc everything at the very end. The misery increases in the series. Although Russia does a lot of things and says, "Let's get rid of the warmongers," it seems to me that they don't want to get too deeply involved either. Because it may become like old Afghanistan if Russia goes deeper. They don't want to get involved, and they don't want to be in the middle of a conflict. After all, those who do it against Trump's will have to go home. It seems to me that the American troops are at last weary of war. The other day, when they were hit by missiles from Iran, at first, they said, "Zero casualties" but now the Pentagon says, "109 wounded." In short, they can't prevent.

That's why there might be a camouflage attack, and actually there was an incident the other day. There was an incident that an Iranian airplane was almost shot down over Syria. It was another fake attack by Israel. Israeli planes were going to attack Syria as before. Then, of course, Syria fired interceptors. At that time, an Israeli plane was flying behind a civilian Iranian plane, and a missile from below almost hit the Iranian plane. Israel did it last year or the year before last. While Russian spy planes were flying, Israeli Air Force planes entered Syria and fought back from below. Again, the Israeli air force flew away and a missile hit a Russian spy plane or something and killed the Russians. Russia got very angry and they made a fuss, saying, "They were killed by Israel." Israel did the same thing again this time.

Syria and Iran ripping apart. They were trying to do the same thing as Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Israel is a really bad country. But Israel doesn't seem to be giving up at all. There are fierce hardliners in Israel. The fiercely hardliners don't even like Trump's proposal. Trump's proposal is so terrible that Palestine is like deprivation. But, it is recognized as a country. However, there are people on the far right of Israel who say that they don't even want to be recognized as a Palestinian state. Because of this, it becomes "If you want to say that again, it's military occupation." But the Israeli army seems to be in a panic. Nowadays, they've been quite scared by saying, "We cannot occupy the Gaza Strip." Israeli and American forces are about to be thrown into hell by fanatical warmongers. That's a big deal. That's why we can feel their nervousness from various announcements and expressions.

Therefore, if the Middle East ends, Japan will also end. The US Army will go back home. As I said, the 9000 South Korean employees at the USFK base won't be paid after April 1st. For that reason, the USFK base will end in March. And even in Okinawa, the construction of Henoko is no longer possible. The conservatives in Okinawa have completely collapsed. That's why it's over. IR will be over, too. Do you think some local governments accept IR in this situation? I don't think so. No matter how much the government promises Mr. Trump, no local government accepts the proposal. That's why our strange relationship with the United States, which is based on "bad" relations, is almost over. That's why the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense only keep repeating "No big deal." and "Oh, my God," no matter what happens. They keep repeating "No big deal." and "Oh, my God." and if something happens, they become silent.

Since the time of Prime Minister Murayama, Japan has been a subject state of the United States for more than 20 years. Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama of his own government was the first prime minister to accept the U.S.-Japan Regulatory Reform and Competition Policy Initiative. Since Japan has been doing this for more than 20 years, if even government officials had entered the ministry at that time, they have risen to the top of the ladder now. That's why the current government offices assume that Japan is a subject state of the United States. Also, the members of the single-seat constituency are the same. Japan has been such a country for more than 20 years. Since the Japanese administration has believed that the largest national interest is the United States' vassal state, it has been supposed to act what the United States wants and implement the U.S.-Japan Regulatory Reform and Competition Policy Initiative. If this doesn't work, there's nothing else. Those who said, "It's strange, it's wrong." Were either demoted or left, and the ones who remain are those who keep saying, "No big deal." "Oh, my God." and then remain silent. Don’t you think there is anything else? That's the way things are here. Now, if the U.S. were to criticize Japan harshly and say, "You don't have any crisis management." Trump would give up on Japan and Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Japan would be forsaken and it would be all settled. The U.S. is going back home.

However, I think the U.S. will be tough in this fall. In short, it's not just a fight between the left and the right, but when it comes to the U.S. Armed Force losing, I think it's going to be like the Russian Revolution. The treatment of war dead is different between losing and winning battles. In the case of a victory war, the war dead become heroes and become a great power for the next war. When there is a death in a losing battle, people get excited in a peaceful mood saying, "Let's stop this war." On the contrary, if you expect a big defeat in a losing battle, the administrators who led the war will be killed. Mr. Benito Mussolini was rolled upside down in Italy. Mr. Nicolae Ceausescu was shot dead, wasn't he? Russian Emperor Nicholas II, who lost the Battle of Tsushima during the Russo-Japanese War, was shot to death with all his relatives. That's the way it goes. Therefore, the defeat of the U.S. Army in the final war will be a terrible situation. That's why there is a possibility that the division of the U.S. will be the last. Right and left are already separated even now. In the midst of this, when the final war is lost, the federal government and the U.S. military can't stand anymore, whether it's Trump or anyone else. Also, there is a possibility that the U.S. will be in a civil war. If that happens, there is a possibility that no one can take care of it. Therefore, we need to be very careful. Speaking of China, the Chinese government's announcement is the least trustworthy. I don't trust what the Chinese Communist Party says the most, so I have to look around. For example, there are various videos of Chinese scholars, and we should refer to them.

Also, there is an outbreak of locusts, which is not often reported in Japanese media. It is more powerful this time than Madagascar in 2013. As reported by National Geographic（A plague of locusts has descended on East Africa. Climate change may be to blame.）, the scale is very large. This time, the scale is big, and the situation continues in various places. They're now going from east Africa, through Somalia, towards Saudi Arabia, into Pakistan, and then towards more northeast China. They go back and forth. I don't know why it happened so much, but it's going to be very serious. They say there is an outbreak of locusts (migratory locusts). This kind of situation is not reported at all in Japanese newspapers. After all, you can understand the scale by looking at the postings from other countries. For example, Twitter is the best. If you search like this（#Locust #Locusts）, you will find it immediately and you will find various related news. If you search for Wuhan, it comes out immediately, and if you search for an outbreak of locusts, it comes out immediately. It's a convenient world, isn't it? Locusts are also huge. In that case, there will be a shortage of food in each region. When food is scarce, war begins. If you can't eat them, everyone will attack you for food. That's why it will be a big deal. There is a scramble for less food. To be honest, this is an unbelievable time for this to happen.

（３）Financial and Economic Tectonic Shifts

・Accelerating Disintegration of the Global Economy
・Fed's Aggressive Liquidity is the Only Lifeline
・Consequences of a Sharp Recession and Supply Disruptions

Also, as I mentioned in today’s resume, the disintegration of the global economy will have to accelerate even more. Let's take a look at Japan. According to the materials of Teikoku Databank, about 20,000 Japanese companies import from China. Imports are concentrated in Shanghai and Dalian. It covers a wide range of fields from automotive materials and machinery to food. The quarantine started yesterday in Beijing city. If not only foreigners but also domestic people come to Beijing city, it will be quarantine for 2 weeks. They can't work anymore in this situation. And the harbor is also closed. The public security can't go to work. Import and export are stopped because the port is also stopped. It certainly doesn't seem to be associated with the coastal areas, but there are about 200 companies in Wuhan. This is because the products made inland are exported from coastal areas. Hon Hai Precision Industry says it reopened its plant after the Lunar New Year, but according to Shenzhen's information, only 10% of its workers went to work. It's quite difficult. Then, everyone stops for now. It's almost stopped, and now all real estate transactions are stopped because no one can move now.

The problem is when we start again after that. I don't know if it will be a few months or a year later, but when it starts again, this lesson will be bigger. Therefore, if we can't wait in the meantime, we have to do it by ourselves. In short, if the supply is cut off, we'll make it ourselves. We can't wait for China to resume imports. For that reason, I think there will surely be a movement of autonomy such as making by ourselves or finding customers by ourselves. For Mr. Trump, it would be good. Imports from China will stop, so it's the revival of America. But the time has come as a result. There is no doubt that the time has come for us to rethink everything by ourselves. Therefore, if globalization ends here, it could end up like Manchuria in 1945. Everyone may run away saying, "It's a virus," "It's a virus." Even though the flash balls may not fly in like they did back then, I think it's possible that the only thing they can do now is to come back home with stories like "The virus is terrible." or "The riot is terrible." It really depends on how far the virus spreads.

When the virus spreads widely, it spreads more and more in Japan, and it spreads around the world, it's almost helpless. It's quite possible to happen. Therefore, when it comes to crisis management, we shouldn't underestimate it. In general, people who fail at times like this are those who think things on the assumption that they are not serious. If they say, "That can't happen. No big deal," then when something big happens, they keep silent and things get really bad. Therefore, life is the most important, and I believe that it is the best to stay still for a while.

In the case of China, the series of globalization that began with reform and opening-up has made China an active manufacturing base for the world. It is almost over for China to transfer the money accumulated behind the scenes to finance. What we should do next is to return to the economy of one country. It's like a pendulum. At the same time, the standard of living in China have become higher than they used to be and they have access to the Internet. Even though the Communist Party is cracking down a lot now, I wonder how long that will last. For that reason, the network society will be settled in the near future. At the same time, regional conflicts such as in Wuhan or Hubei Province will not be resolved for a while since things like that have started happening. Don't you think that's the very division of China? You can tell that by words. The accent is different. Wuhan people have different accents, so they can tell by words. Therefore, if this kind of thing starts, it will not be a unified country. In particular, people in areas with low pollution don't want to associate with areas with high pollution. That's why I think the division of China will really be decisive.

In that case, we have to think about which region we will associate with. Even the U.S., for example, if the federal government were to be blown away by the massive defeat of the U.S. military, they would not be able to get their bonds back. But the U.S. is a two-tier country consisting of states and federal states, so even if the federal government collapses, the states remain. Therefore, while foreigners may not be able to get their money back, the people of the state may have a chance to restart even though it is quite difficult. In that case, Japan is also the largest creditor country in the world, so after this virus has stopped, Japan has no choice but to go out considerably. If we don't go out as creditors, we can't rebuild the world. After all, just like the Great East Japan Earthquake, when all the old leaders are gone and replaced by new leaders, the whole thing will be rebuilt. I think the relationship with the world will be reconnected. I think it will necessarily go that way. In the meantime, there may be some twists and turns.

It is therefore socialism, that is, an age of mutual help. But it's more like a network than a country, and it's a connection of friends. That's how you go about it, and you take advantage of blockchains and other new technologies. Virtual currency can also be used as a local currency. In the case of paper local currency, only people living there can use it, but in the case of virtual local currency, you can deal with people in completely remote areas. Therefore, even in this situation, you can do what you want to do next. In this case, it starts growing from the bottom. China, the U.S., Japan and Europe will be able to start from the bottom.

There will be a new prosperity after this is all over. I think a new era will come with a system that is completely different from the era led by nation-states until the 20th century. Is it 10, is it 20, or is it 30 years from now? But in 30 years, I think it will completely flip over. I think it will be settled in about 10 years. In short, even though it's only been three weeks since the lockdown, Wuhan and China as a whole have changed. It's only three weeks since Wuhan lockdown. Since the virus actually spread in December, it hasn't been three months since December, January, and February. Even if it hasn't been three months, it has changed so much. Therefore, if you wait 10 years, it will change a lot. For that reason, you should think about the future carefully and act accordingly.

Now, let's talk about finance. That's the Fed's Term Repo numbers. Term Repo is a special loan from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to a cash-strapped financial institution. It is a special operation to lend money to those who cannot borrow money from others. On September 14th of last year, there was a severe attack by Iran and the financial crisis started on Monday the following week. It has been continuing since then. This time, after the end of the Spring Festival in February, the Fed's supply of liquidity has been enormous. The crisis has deepened since the end of Spring Festival. I think China has come to a standstill, and various financial crises have emerged as a result. Right now, banks are having a hard time, but funds are also having a hard time. There is talk of the Fed lending money directly to the funds. Even Masayoshi Son, who is doing something called Vision Fund 2, is collecting less than half of the money. It is written that it is less than half. While funds are getting funded, China is out. Chinese investors are also going to be cash-strapped. Both Chinese investors and corporate managers need to raise funds. In that case, everyone will be selling. They have to sell what they can sell and raise money, and that's why they're buying gold and bitcoin for now.

They only accept gold and bitcoin. Because in the middle of real chaos, there's only so much you can sell. When It's an unusual situation, there are only a limited number of items that can be sold even in a panic like the 9.11 incident. What really sells then is gold bullion. It's actual gold. The futures market, you know, if the U.S. locks down, if the market stops, it won't sell anymore. But real gold can be sold. Therefore, people have been buying the actual gold for the last time. If that's the case, it could be sold even on the last day of the world. Recently, Bitcoin has been attracting attention. Bitcoin prices have gone up a lot. That's why people are fleeing to virtual currencies. There is also the idea that the legal currencies should not be decided because the country is not sure what will happen. Among the legal currencies, yen and Swiss franc are rising. When something happens, they buy yen and Swiss francs. But, well, if that goes on, the yen will become stronger in Japan, so everyone puts money in and stops it because of the weak yen. Therefore, the only legal currencies left will be yen and Swiss francs.

Prices are already going up in China. With prices going up, China is already experiencing hyperinflation. If China collapses, things won't come in, as a result, the U.S. will go into hyperinflation I think. Therefore, I think that the legal currencies are necessarily yen and Swiss franc. People say, "Fujiwara-san, if the virus becomes serious, the yen will certainly depreciate." but it's the exact opposite. The virus will stop the Japanese economy and it will be hard to finance. The Japanese return their overseas assets to Japan, which makes the yen stronger. The yen became strong after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Here it is. Japan is a creditor country. When an emergency occurs in Japan, they run out of money, so they sell their assets overseas and bring them back home. Therefore, in the case of Japan, domestic emergencies = yen appreciation. Just like the Great East Japan Earthquake, the yen is strong again this time.

Therefore, the appreciation of the yen will accelerate. The Swiss franc's rise will also accelerate. Exporters, central banks, private banks, the Bank of Japan, and so on are the ones that get into trouble when the yen appreciates. Even if they try to stop the strong yen, there is nothing they can do in a domestic emergency. No matter how much they intervene, it doesn't stop. Therefore, I believe that the current is the strong yen. The scary part is the Fed's Term Repo numbers. They've been doing this for six months. In this financial crisis, they put about 40 trillion yen in the first run since last September. After that, there will be an incident where concrete examples come out. For example, there is a name of Softbank because the company can't collect money. Also, there are more and more stories about Chinese companies going bankrupt. In that case, there will be a big political problem of who will make up for the deficit of the collapsed company. This is going to be a big issue. If Mr. Masayoshi Son were to run out of business, would you agree to a tax bailout? You don't do it, do you? If the management of the Japanese megabank, which extended a large loan to Mr. Masayoshi Son, goes into decline, would everyone use tax money to bail out? It must be difficult. In that case, this issue will be put off until it is settled. By procrastination followed by procrastination, all losses will be procrastinated and only cash flow will be provided.

But by the time the crisis gets to that point, everyone knows, "This is going to collapse.". That's why they say, "Let's get out of here now." and when they're still raising funds, they sell stocks, sell securities, throw away assets and run away. In short, to be honest, after the name comes out, it becomes like a skeleton. They're all chipped off. But you can still survive if you run away. Those who don't run will surrender together. One day, all of a sudden, they can't be helped any more. In short, there is a line that if it gets so bad, we can't rescue any more. A company is completely different when it's alive and when it's dead. After the story that it is no longer good spreads and everyone runs away, there is no way to rescue. The best employees will quit first. And it will be harder and harder to raise money. Therefore, when the word "It's over there." spreads, it becomes really difficult to rebuild with time. But all they can do is procrastinate, and then it becomes empty. Therefore, politics will take care of it in the end. When that happens, politics usually gives up. They’re resigning en masse. Like almost everywhere, they don't do anything. If they do that, they will fail in the next election. The financial crisis usually gets serious from that point.

It was the financial crisis in 1927. Japan had a financial crisis in 1927. At that time, they were Constitutional Democratic Party and Rikken Seiyukai. Because of that political mess, Rikken Seiyukai deliberately refused to help the failed organization. As a result, it became a real crisis. As I said before, it will be a world of uncertainty. There were a lot of names at that time, too. Since there's a rumor going around about Bank of Taiwan and Suzuki Shoten, people were not be able to rescue them. Then they ended up fighting each other. Therefore, as was the case 25 years ago, financial bailouts are very difficult when specific names come up. If there is an extremely serious political crisis, it is impossible for Japan, China, or any other country to maintain the current level of politics. Even though they tried to raise funds for six months, China made the final blow. As the Fed's Term Repo numbers show, the bailout is on the rise and the situation is going on. As for the consequences of the sudden recession and supply disruptions, as I mentioned earlier, we will once again restructure our network by focusing on the local economy. Either analog or digital is fine, so I don’t think there is any other way. Of course, please don't misunderstand. The earth is not over. Humans are not over. It's a phase where something ends and something is born.

（４）Future of the World Born of Chaos

・Active Blockchains and Horizontal Networks
・Decentralized Infrastructure that Does Not Depend on the System is the Lifeline
・The gap between the beginning and the end of the era is not just 10 years.

You may think that the six major problems I mentioned earlier are serious. But I think everyone has read about the end of the Roman Empire in textbooks. Also, I think that you've read about the end of the Kamakura Shogunate and the end of the Edo Shogunate in textbooks. Do you know how many big earthquakes occurred in Japan around 1945? Many of the events I just talked about have happened naturally in the past. The turning point of the times is when things like this happen without any hesitation. That's why the earth doesn't end. That won't end Japan. In short, new things are born from here. It was taking such a long time to sort out old things that it's going to be tough from now on. When I think about the next thing, as I said a lot before, let's reorganize a little. First, before technology, it's philosophy. In a word, it's ECO. It is a circulation type. Recycling is also related to sustainability. In short, it is sustainable. It means two ways, so it's very important to have a cycle of going and coming back. It is Ecosystem. Think of the fact that water and oxygen are trapped in the Earth. It is confined in a planet called the earth and circulates continuously. It's much cleaner. It is ECO that we hope to realize this in our own civilization.

As a whole, water and air are much cleaner. Even if you use it, it will become much cleaner. By continuing to do so, the earth is making itself sustainable. It is the philosophy that people are now hoping about realizing this in our civilization. Then, when we say ECO, the next thing that comes up is sustainability, as well as society in civilization. Society. It's not an individual. Since the idea of leaving something to an excellent individual has caused major problems, the idea of society will be emerged. Because of the idea of ECO, we think of a group, not one by one. This is not a socialist and authoritarian society, but a society that is made possible by diverse people, such as environmental diversity. Therefore, I don't think this idea has shaken any more. Things go according to these ideas and philosophies, so exclude everything that doesn't fit. For instance, speculative financial markets, unilateral exploitation, someone's monopoly, a market monopoly, feeding or injecting poison are all bad. These will be all eliminated.

Also, it makes use of the power of nature. After all, there is a rhythm of nature and the time axis of nature. There is a big difference in the time for melting natural substances when they are burned. Therefore, we are going to adjust to the timeline of things like this, so "Time is money." is different. The world from now on will be aligned with the time axis of nature, so it is not the age of "Time is money.". That's all changing. There are many ways to achieve this. For example, microorganisms. Microorganisms are actually responsible for ECO. I think it will be applied in various places from now on. As a solution to coronaviruses, there should be microbes or something. Or, you know, if you look at the real work of microbes, you start to see the connection with the universe. As I said earlier, who is supporting the earth to have this Ecosystem? Why does the earth always clean water and air? Who on earth is in charge? Then, we'll see the universe. The energy of the universe is always being poured into the earth. It's the same on other planets. That's why it becomes clear that what controls the world is a microorganism. Then, we will change everything from our lives to our lives.

And when it comes to technology, as I've been saying, blockchain, AI (artificial intelligence), IoT (Internet of Things), and robots. Blockchain can be used for management. AI can be used for judgment. IoT can be used for notification/report. Robots can perform a variety of operation tasks. As new technologies emerge, it's not just about self-driving cars. In short, most of what we do as an industry now will be done by machines. That's why we are going to become non-industrial people. Furthermore, these people in this field will be required to be very sophisticated because industries will be mostly done by machines. Industrial people in the future are required to have extremely high skills. Industrial people in the future are required to have extremely high skills. Management, judgment, reporting, and operation are all done by machines. We need human resources to do what machines can't do and teach things to machines. Now, how do we train such people? We must train them outside the industry. In other words, it means creating a new society by acting people who support the community outside the industry, such as living, community management, energy production, food production, and other kinds of productions as well.

Naturally, the way of using the land will change. If you use the land in a way that is not ECO like now, you will have a situation like locust infestation. I think I introduced this picture to you before, it is a view of Japan from 50 to 60 years ago. This is an illustrated reference book of social studies that I had 50 years ago. Seemingly a town is a town and a village is looked like a village. I think it will go back to this style in a good way. Maybe we all go back to this starting point and live like this. Each town is created by its own town-style, and each village is created by its own village-style. Well, since this picture was illustrated after the war, there are some parts that were overdeveloped. When thinking about tsunami, there are some parts that are better on higher ground. Once again, it's better to make local cities to reborn. A town is better to revive like a town and a village is better to revive like a village. If you say "How do you live your life?" then it's a specialty. They make their own specialties and sell them to the world. Local products are made not by one key person but by the whole town. That is the local product. If you say "How can people live their lives?" then there should be created a local specialty in each town/village. We can make our own specialties and sell them to the world. Of course, local products should be made not by one key person but by the whole town. That can be the local products for each town/village. It is a special product made by organically connecting the whole town. Everyone makes this specialty and is able to sell it all over the world.

Also, we should use less energy to run a house. For example, nuclear power plants are no longer possible. It is clear that it is not possible even from a political point of view. People are talking about "Is there enough energy in that case?" and "Do we have enough energy?" but that's all you need to do with less energy. If it is operated with less energy, we will be healthier. We're wasting our energy doing unnecessary things. It's a world where you pay money to work out, like a house mouse. Something's wrong. Well, if you want to be an athlete, it's a bit different, but it's kind of strange that the people at large are too enthusiastic. In short, we should have that kind of health in our lives. We're using too much energy now, whatever we think. So, as I said earlier, the goal is to create local products in each town and village. This will become a local industry, so it will be difficult to create something over the long term without outstanding people. Most of the work is done by machines, and it's important that there are outstanding people there. In that case, when being asked "What are other people doing?" people are living with the community in such a town or village. And there is a basic income system to support this.

For example, people over 65 years old are receiving pension now. Among them, there are people who contribute to the community by receiving pension. The pension they receive is really basic income. Young people should be given this kind of money, too. That's all. It is better to give money to young people who are working hard as volunteers in the community, not only the elderly who can receive pension. That's how society works. Also, there is a part that moves in self-sufficiency, which is quite active. Even if you look at old houses, the shape of each house is different depending on the region. When you are self-sufficient, wisdom works. You can pick up good local products one after another. In the end, it turns into the strength of specialty products. It's not bad at all. And what's different from the past is that we have new technologies now, so it’s not like going to bring us all back to life in the Jomon period. It's not like going back to the Stone Age. It will be a new civilization that overcomes the current problems. We’re not going back to the old days.

Therefore, people will be freed from the job of management, and it is good to use robots well in a world where the number of elderly people is increasing. It's better to cover it well by using autonomous driving and robots. It's not bad at all. Under that, it is important to rebuild in each region. As I mentioned at the beginning, attention will now be focused on the activities of regional and national governments, central and local governments, and company leaders from next week and beyond. This is the end of the 3 leaders and organizations that have "No big deal.", "Oh, my God." and "Silent". On the other hand, people and organizations that can think about the future and act will emerge from the bottom up. However, our ideals haven't changed much from the past. This is a picture in the same Social Studies encyclopedia called "Future Cities." This was 50 years ago. When I was a child, I saw this picture and was told, "This is the future." There are highways, high speed railways, and even helicopters that look like modern drones. On the other hand, there are no electric wires and zoning is done in harmony with nature. And green is the center of this picture. The ideals haven't changed much with us now. If we take care of the greenery and try not to pollute it as a harmony of nature, there is no change in its appearance.

The materials will change, and nanotechnology will come in. The energy source is different from before. The invisible communication is also very different. Other than that, the infrastructure will change a lot and the interior and exterior of the house will also change. Right now, people like airtight houses, but we don't know if it will continue. There must be various shapes of houses. It's not a reform of working styles, but the lifestyle of commuting every morning and evening will not be necessarily the main thing. But the whole picture looks like this. It doesn't change much and I think it's probably like this. Therefore, in that sense, I don't think everything will change in an extreme way, and ECO and Society are keywords for a while. It is very good that our civilization continues to be circulation, just as the Earth continues to be circulation. Therefore, the exit will be where it changes like that. For that reason, please keep in mind that the end and the beginning are right on top. I think you will be unable to move for a while, and you will be free, so please put priority on the order of life, livelihood, and economy. If the virus spreads, it's best not to move. I think the world will be in the same situation as the Great East Japan Earthquake, so you should think seriously about the future.

Q&A

Question：Although the number of people who died or were infected with coronavirus has been reported, the number of people who recovered from coronavirus has not been widely reported. I can't get any information about vaccines. Do you know what the situation is?

In China, there are about 66,000 infected people and about 8,000 cured. There are a lot of people who are cured with mild symptoms and a lot of people who are cured with severe symptoms, so there are official statistics like this. Therefore, there was talk about taking out something like antibodies from those who recovered. But it takes more than a year to get a vaccine to cure the disease itself. Exams are needed and they can't make it in a year. I think they will do various things experimentally, but it is a risk for doctors. Doing something that has not been proven is a great risk. To be honest, we have to wait and see what happens.

Question：Regarding the U.S. presidential election, the last election was a battle between warmongers and anti-warmongers, and this time between the right and left. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. Where is Pete Buttigieg in the Democratic Party?

For the time being, he is a moderate, so if you put it in terms of the type of Democratic Party, I think he is the type that smart, serious Democrats like the most. He is supported by people who live in a relatively large city, who have built up their lives and work diligently in the past, and who study hard. Some say that he is controlled by the Bidens because he is young and powerless. I'm not sure if it's true. However, his popularity is still there. Let's look at the manifesto (PETE's PLANS). He says, "EQUAL JUSTICE FOR ALL". He also says, “STRENGTHENING THE MIDDLE CLASS,” “BUILDING A SAFER AMERICA,” “EQUITABLE EDUCATION AND OPPORTUNITY,” “A NEW ERA FOR HEALTH IN AMERICA,” “RISING TO THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE.” Generally speaking, he is also inward-looking and has little interest in foreign countries. He is the most serious person who supports the present U.S. with morals, and he is the representative of the Democratic Party. Therefore, I think that his supporters are not the warmongers, but the most moderate people are supporting him.

And Bernie Sanders? It's very similar, but his commitment (Bernie Sanders on the issues) includes Green New Deal and Workplace Democracy. There parts are different. This is the left one. These parts are different, compared to PETE's PLANS. That's why he is the left one. So, it's hard for warmongers to survive. I think, even from name recognition, Bernie Sanders will be selected. That is to say, the present state of America is not something that can be cured by moderation. I don't think it's that simple. When people get irritated, politics doesn't go in the middle. It can swing right or left. Actually, moderate is the best policy. The truth is that someone like Pete Buttigieg, who does things in moderation, work best, but when the world is divided, moderation doesn't work. Therefore, I think that if the U.S. were to wreck in the Middle East, Elizabeth Warren may possibly be selected. She's more to the left. In the end, I think this year will be a conflict between right and left.

Question：Regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives, I think it will be in the latter half of this year at the earliest. Will the opposition parties be unified?

First of all, within the Liberal Democratic Party, as I said earlier, Mr. Abe and Mr. Kan are fighting each other. According to a public opinion poll, the Liberal Democratic Party will be said to lose. That's why they don't want to hold an election. The approval rating is dropping again because of this virus. They don't want to quit, but they only have internal squabbles. Therefore, we don't know when they will give up and resign for the next election. At this point, I think there is a possibility that the government will give up and disband. In that case, Kan's group and Abe's group are going to have a real conflict, and there will be two candidates in the constituency. If each side has a candidate, both sides will fall down. I think that kind of thing can happen. However, if they quit, they are just “people” after all, so there is a possibility that they may stop disbanding. That’s why I don't know when. However, they know that the current regime is now extremely dangerous.

You are absolutely right about the opposition party. There is a union behind the Constitutional Democratic Party. The Federation of Electric Power Workers' Unions is included. Since this union is against nuclear power, it can’t merge with the National Democratic Party. Therefore, Mr. Edano is creating his own world and barricading himself. He's like, "What I'm saying is what I'm saying, and I don't know the rest.". In that case, when it comes to expectations of the people, Taro Yamamoto is the only one. That's why there are only LDP and Taro Yamamoto in politics now. There is a possibility that Mr. Yamamoto's house will grow from now on. He says he will field candidates all over Japan. In the case of the LDP, it will be a collision course between Abe and Nikai in the election. It depends on the timing of the election, but suppose there were two candidates in each constituency due to factional clashes between the Abe and Kishida factions, the Nikai and Kan factions, and the Ishiba factions,  Taro Yamamoto would definitely win overwhelmingly. There is a possibility. Therefore, this year, the opposition parties are also concerned about what to do in this situation. I think it is important to pursue the LDP and the Sakura Viewing Party scandal, but I would appreciate it if they could take one or two more steps toward the future.

Question：Watching videos like today's your lectures makes me feel right, but when I talk to people around me, everyone is looking blank. I'm wondering if people will be able to recognize these changes all of a sudden or gradually.

That's a good question. About 25 years ago, I started my own company in 1993. I've been doing it for about 27 years. When I left the U.S. financial industry, I was certain that the world's financial system would collapse because I was watching the situations inside. Since I knew it from looking inside, I told many people, "This will be crushed, the U.S. will be crushed and Japan will be crushed, too." However, no one believed me. I've been told "Oh, you are so energetic." by executives of companies that later went bankrupt. I thought, "I'm talking about your company." Also, I was once praised as "You are young, but you have a lot of energy.". They hardly trusted. After that, when Yamaichi Securities went bankrupt, everyone suddenly realized that. At the time of Yamaichi's bankruptcy, everyone, including real amateurs, lined up in Tokyo. Since then, everyone has been silent. However, after that, what followed immediately was the major restructuring of non-financial companies including the manufacturing industry. Most people thought it was someone else's business, but then they went into chaos after many companies were gone and some other major restructuring.

There were a few critical moments at that time. First, the stock market plunged in 1990. The smartest people were selling everything from golf memberships to real estate in 1989. This was the best answer. There were only a few people who did this. That’s why there were only a few people who sold out before the crash. From there, when it crashed in 1990, most people were silent about stocks. It went from 39,000 yen level to 32,000 yen level in half a year. The people who bought a lot here were the ones who lost the most. The losers the most were the ones who said, "This is a place to buy." when it went from 39,000 yen to the 32,000 yen level. Since they went as far as the low 20,000 yen range, their property was extinguished there. There were many companies that went bankrupt because of that. There were quite a few such cases in corporations. Then, it dropped to 14,000 yen in 1992. At that time, both the government and banks were in panic. Everyone panicked and said, "It's crushed. It's collapsing.". What saved the panic at that time was the injection of pension funds by the Ministry of Finance. The Finance Ministry was in charge of managing pension funds at that time, and they bought stocks with pension funds. As a result, everyone thought, "Thank God."

In the 1992 to 28 years since then, most Japanese stock investors have faith in the belief that stock prices are backed by the government. Believers are hard to be saved. Those who think "The government will save us. The U.S. will save us." have never been saved, as a result that they lose money every time there's a crash. In 1992, some people gave up. I thought, "The same goes for Japanese companies. The U.S. is terrible. Japan is terrible." and quit in 1993. There were many people who went out at that time. At that time, not everyone thought it was strange, and there was no panic yet, so I was able to move around quite easily. Then, it happened in 1995. In 1995, small banks started to go bankrupt. Then, after the Great Hanshin Earthquake, the atmosphere changed drastically, and some people began to think, "I'm afraid this won't come back." It was helpful for the people who decided in 1985 that stock, real estate and bubble would not return and sold out there. 1995 was probably the last year. Those who had sold everything by 1995, changed their minds, stopped their old business, and rebuilt, generally had a chance after the crash.

Therefore, 1995 was the last year. Those who could not make up their minds were suddenly swept away by the financial tsunami in 1997. It was swept away by the financial tsunami and became a chaos. However, some people were thinking about what to do next in 1997. Real estate was one of the biggest market crashes after the Crash of 1997, and no one could find a buyer for it. In 1997, at the time of the great confusion of Yamaichi Securities’ bankruptcy, my office at that time was in Shibuya, and the Washington shoe store which was located at the entrance of the center street of Shibuya station was put up for sale. As usual, even though it's going to crash with no buyers, Kentucky Fried Chicken, McDonald's, and one or two other companies, and the restaurant chain came to buy it by cash. It was sold so quickly. I was in Shibuya at that time and heard and saw the stories that said, “Oh, it’s sold!” and I thought, "Ah, the real estate has hit the bottom." That’s why, at the moment that people who were not sure until the very end were being swept away by the financial tsunami, on one hand, people who were looking at the next came to buy. That was the bottom of real estate and real estate in Tokyo went up from there. That's the way things are. Therefore, if people around you don't say anything, it's still a chance. Just as it was hard after 1997 when everyone really started talking, it will be hard after everyone starts talking again. At that time, there were so many people at public deployment security offices that no matter where they went, they wouldn't be hired, and everyone was in chaos. In short, there were many people who lost their confidence.

Therefore, you can still do something now since you have plenty of time. However, even if you talk to those who don't understand now, they won't understand. In this case, the timing is important. They will understand if you tell them once they become aware of facts. When they think, "That can't be true." they never understand what you are talking about. In this case, the timing is important. They will understand if you tell them once they become aware of what’s going on. However, when they think, "That can't be true." they never understand what you are talking about. They'll understand when you say it in a flash, so I think until then, you should keep watching when they will become aware of the facts. For example, speaking of viruses, the news about infected people in Japan started to be reported the day before yesterday. But most people still think, "It's no big deal." It will change a lot in about three days. When it changes a lot, it changes by numbers. In other words, not everyone knows the information properly, so they judge by watching TV or something, so there is no basis for it. That's why it's a feeling. Everyone is doing it with a feeling, so it's quick when it changes. When people change their mind, it happens in a blink of an eye, so it changes in a few days and spreads quickly. In such a case, you can think of it as such a mechanism. Therefore, there are things you can't do even if you force them too much.

Question：I would like to ask your thoughts on energy in the future. I don't think if IoT and wind power will really support the future.

For example, there is a technology called carbon dioxide storage in fossil fuels. In addition, the capacity of batteries for natural energy is advancing day by day. It might be possible if the battery capacity improves. I don't think there is such a thing as plugging in and sending out free energy like magic all of a sudden. Microorganisms can be used well, and heating can be devised not to require much energy. In general, energy conservation will accelerate and energy sources will be decentralized. The problem is the part that uses a lot of electricity, such as running trains or managing electricity in big cities. For the time being, I think we need to devise ways to reduce pollution by using even fossil fuels. It is possible to think about the arrival of innovative technologies while continuing such efforts. Russia is still doing nuclear power. They built a ship with nuclear reactors the other day. They take it to places where there is no electricity in the Arctic Ocean and pull it to generate electricity. Since nobody knows when it will be exploded, I think it’s a little crazy idea. After all, we will not do anything that will bring about such a catastrophe, and for the time being, I think it’s better to continue to combine various things that have already been made.

Question：What will happen to the issuance of Japanese government bonds in the future, including restraint?

Isn't it difficult to control it in the current political situation? I think that is the way to nationalize all private banks and the Bank of Japan and issue more and more government bonds as Mr. Taro Yamamoto says. Unlike China and the United States, no matter what you may say, Japan is a country that cannot be called a "I can't cure you. You're dead." After all, Japan is an island country. This time, the country should take money from rich people. It's socialism. I think they should do such things as making large companies pay money or imposing progressive taxation on the rich. But at least for the past few years, the government bond issue will increase for a while. Therefore, I think both banks and the central bank will be discussing nationalization in the meantime. In my opinion, once we get there, once the virus and the prospect of the end of the war are in place, there will be a debate about how to reinvent the society.

Question：I think the development of technology will be based on 5G, but I've heard that electromagnetic waves are very harmful to the human body.

We don't necessarily use 5G. 5G is a way of wireless communication, so we can take full advantage of technology developments without 5G. As you said, I think 5G is dangerous, too. As you said, I think 5G is dangerous. I also do amateur radio, so I know that I get a headache when I put a very short waved radio on my ear. That's why I've always thought it would be better not to do much about 5G, and I have doubts. It may be good to use it in a place where it doesn't affect the human body very much, but I think we should do it considering our health. So far, many sensors have been scattered at low prices. But if you really want to shield, you should start from the place where people don't approach. There are many ways to do it, so it depends on your ingenuity. I think everyone will think about that from now on. It is better to establish strict regulations. Then the technology will deal with it. On the other hand, if the regulation is loose, the technology stops. If you make a strict standard first, the technology will improve to meet the standard. The exhaust gas regulation was the same. First of all, it is important to establish strict standards. That's the absolute answer. That's why I think we should do the same for electromagnetic wave damage to health. Since it's the time of the Society, it may be going to progress naturally.

Question：In the election system using blockchain, I think there is a problem of My Number in Japan in linking personal information and voter information. Is it possible to link between those information for implementation?

The local government will do it. But, it is impossible to use My Number in the future. The best thing is that everyone can vote on a smartphone using blockchain technology. Therefore, I think it would be better for the local government to form an agreement on how to implement this. Therefore, it might be better to expand it from municipal elections. If it's just a referendum, this smartphone election is fine. National elections can be held in order by changing the law, so I think it depends on the local government.

Question：There are differences in how people feel about the seriousness of Coronavirus infections. How can we convey a sense of crisis to others?

In the case of Japan, if there are more and more people who tell the truth, the system will change. I think that it's time for change because there are people who tell the truth. The atmosphere of people changes a lot with the media reports. That’s why I think that it's next week at this timing. Of course, it depends on how much it spreads and the death rate, so we can say that we may be able to do something about it. However, since there have been many seriously ill people, it is better not to move now. It's better not to move. That's all I can say today. By the way, there was a special airplane from Wuhan to America. That plane belongs to a company called Kalitta Air, which is an airline that carries the bodies of the U.S. military. I think that the people who were waiting were so surprised that they would scream. Maybe the people who were flying home were expecting Delta Air Lines or American Airlines but Kalitta came to pick them up. According to the news, flight attendants were smoking oxygen masks and breathing oxygen from the cylinder. Actually, the world is in such a dangerous situation now that we should do such things to protect our lives.