Dec. 2019／Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara (President, the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum)
As one of Japanese NGOs, called "the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum," we have had "lifelong learning" lectures every month since 2015.
Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara, President at the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum" are as follows:
Introduction
Many things have happened this year. A lot of things are still happening. To be honest, Japanese leadership is also bad. Did business community and politics do anything right this year? Depression and problems always occur, so business world and politics have to do something. We have 10 consecutive holidays in Japan. I don't mind about the consecutive holidays, but politics and business circles do nothing even after the consecutive holidays. I think they should work. Many small and medium enterprises are working hard for their jobs. Well, I think that this conclusion will come out next year because the leaders of big companies and political and business circles are not good.
There will be a landslide in the middle of Japan next year. It is already like that. That's why I think it will be like the Meiji Restoration. Just like the U.S. president, Mr. Trump, it's good to try one after another. They should have tried, but they haven't. I will talk about China, but it seems that China is worse than expected. There's nothing there either.
But Britain says it will come out of the EU, so it will be decided next week. After all, the moving part is moving. On the other hand, Japan is no good. In Japan, it's become common to do nothing. That's why I feel like a mudslide and a landslide will occur in Japan next year. So everyone has to move well. When you stop, you're out. If we stop, we'll have to go out, so we have to decide what to protect.
And NHK is talking about earthquakes. Well, they’re right. The 0 meter area is a very tough place. This area where we are today is also included. As I thought, there have been 3 times in the past that the population of Tokyo has decreased greatly at the turn of the times. The first was from the end of the Edo period to the Meiji Restoration. The Edo period ended and samurai from all over the country lived here in Edo. All the samurai returned to their hometown. So there was a big drop in the number of people. The second one was the Great Kanto Earthquake. This area also got burnt. After all the streets of Edo were burned down, they were rearranged into a grid town. It's a town with a grid pattern around here. The third time is the evacuation before the war. Evacuation was also miserable. There was a big air raid on Tokyo in March 1945, and the U.S. military distributed flyers called "There is a great air raid, so run away." before the bombing of Tokyo. At that time, it was not allowed to read leaflets distributed by the U.S. military. But people who read it and ran away thinking "DANGEROUS!", were saved. On the other hand, those who were “good enough” to report to the police as they were told, "Don't look at this leaflet." burned to death. That was the Great Tokyo Air Raid at that time.
At that time, evacuation started in about 1944, and 1945 was hard, and that was the 3rd time. At worst, it's the fourth time. So next year, we really have to be careful about disasters, especially typhoons. Well, you should think while running. So Japan is ending this year because top leaders are going to pass the year without doing anything. I think it's good to think that landslides will occur together next year.
First of all, about Japan, the politics are shaking. Now, stock prices are the only hope for both America and Japan. Stock prices are the only hope, and they have no choice but to raise them. That's why even the politics of Japan melted. From the end of this year to the beginning of next year, there is a story of dissolution or resignation of the whole Cabinet. Will they be forced to disband? Otherwise, the Cabinet will resign en masse. The Abe Cabinet was very careless. It's too late to erase the past.
（１） Abe's staggering government
・The Reality of Historic Public – Private Confusion Government Unveiled
・Expectations of a dissolution or a general resignation of the Cabinet
・Mr. Kishida or Mr. Ishiba……
The surroundings have collapsed and the flow has changed. The people, you know, we've never seen anyone say, "That's all right. The stock price is high, so it's okay.". After all, the flow has changed.You think, "Are you crazy?". I think the recession is spreading. I think there are many stories that don't go well. This year, most people said, "But don't rock the boat.". That's why, "Don't do anything unnecessary.". There were a lot of people who said, "Don't do anything because it will be a disaster if the former Democratic Party comes out." so they'll carry it over to next year. That said, things that change would be change. Even if you don't change, things that change will change. So it's going to change a lot next year. The current state of Japanese politics is like that. If one more minister is fired, the Cabinet will be in trouble.
Especially when I saw it this time, I thought it was a massive confusion over the Ministry of Education. That's how much the Japanese government and Mr. Abe made the concession. Mr. Shimomura and Mr. Hagiuda made the concession and decided to give all the university entrance exams to Benesse Corp., so they drew that many pictures. But it's all over. It's all over, so I thought, "Oh, I'm so dumbfounded that it's gone.". The Abe Cabinet created the right and concessions to education, and until then, education was a world in which money never made a profit. It is all for Benesse's interest and concessions. So when I see that kind of thing, I think, "It's awful when things really change at the end.".
Politics changes in an instant. So I think it will appear in various places from now on, probably next year. Then, first of all, within the Liberal Democratic Party, there was talk of Mr. Suga, as the next Prime Minister. You know, foreign media also have continually covered up the scandal of the Cherry Blossom Viewing Society. The world hates hanging out with yakuza, “anti-social forces” in particular. In the world, it's one shot out. Both Mr. Abe and Mr. Suga are on the verge of collapsing together after bullet fights. Then, the next one might be Mr. Kishida, Mr. Ishiba, or someone around there. So in diplomacy, what has been too far to the right should be put back in the middle. But the reality of the economy has nothing.
Well, if there is anything good after the change of the cabinet, it will be more difficult because pus will come out. So no matter what they do, we'll have a short-lived government next year. How about holding an election that you can do with a smartphone with blockchain technology? Politics will surely change. That's already happening in Estonia right now. And there are more and more block-chained election systems around the world. If we make it possible to vote on smartphones using blockchain technology, the voter turnout of young people will increase at once. Politics will change all at once.
It is the politics that “influential” people are doing now. But when young people can vote on their smartphones, it will change completely. There is a system that you can authenticate yourself with your smartphone and vote with your smartphone. The inclusion of blockchain technology in the system means that politics and administration are thoroughly checked and recorded by blockchains.
So, when the opposition party says, "Give us the list." they can't shred it in a hurry. It's open in both good and bad ways. The bad meaning is that there are people whining in politics. He whines and says, "Please do something about it.". Then, there are extenuating circumstances. But when the blockchain comes in, it's hard to those extenuating circumstances. That's why it's hard in that sense. Since transparency is important now, it can't be helped that no one can take extenuating circumstances. We have to talk and open their mouths.
When we put a fully recordable blockchain system into government and politics, when we put blockchain technology into an election system, Japan will change all at once. That's why I think this election reform is better than going back to a multi-seat constituency system. Even though, it's true that the multiple-seat constituency system is better than the single-seat constituency system, it costs money. Only people with money can become politicians, so it's just going to go back to normal. In this case, I think the election using the blockchain system is good. If it is a country like Japan, it is not so difficult. Anyway, we have to encourage young people to the political stage. In the process, the actual situation of the historically mixed government of public and private is clear, and this is already coming out. It's clear from the beginning. It's a gathering of Mr. Abe and “influential” people, and all of them are full of interests and concessions. So I think it will become clear and it will be like an expulsion from public office.
I feel sorry for those who went to "Cherry Blossom Viewing Party". That's scary. If they keep riding on such a loose government, they can get thrown stones from behind. I think it will cause a big ripple soon. The list of names will come out soon. But after all, the biggest issue is the right to profit. It includes the Benesse scandals and the Kake and Moritomo scandals. The Act on the Protection of Specially Designated Secrets, the Olympics, security of the G 20, and IR are all interests and concessions.
The rest is diplomacy. North Korea clearly says, "Apologize thoroughly from the time of the Sino-Japanese War.". I have opened the Kyoto Fujiwara School where we study and research history. Especially, we study and research about the Meiji period now. It was samurai who did the Meiji Restoration. In short, the Meiji Restoration aimed to reform Japan without falling behind Western modernization. But after the Meiji Restoration, the samurai lost their jobs. It was said that they don't need samurai anymore in Japan. It's a conscription system, so farmers and townspeople start working like samurai. Then samurai were unpleasant. So they went to the Korean Peninsula with the Rising Sun flag. They came out of Japan to do the Meiji Restoration in Korean Peninsula. Since the Korean Peninsula was behind and China was behind, they went out trying to do the Meiji Restoration which succeeded in Japan.
History cannot be erased. So We have to apologize. We have to return what we have to return. We can't help it. The Meiji government couldn't talk about it. It must have been the Saccho and Choshu governments. That's why diplomacy has gotten complicated. At that time, Germany also made a sincere apology, and Chancellor Merkel also went to Auschwitz for the first time. So, Japan should do it well and start over.
In that sense, Mr. Nobusuke Kishi was a “great” person. Japan lost the war by making the whole Asia an enemy. But the first person who went to Indonesia to apologize was Mr. Kishi. "We are sorry for doing such a terrible thing in the war." he said firmly, "Please let us cooperate with the reconstruction of Indonesia." That would be a beautiful story, but the rest of the story is that it became interests and concessions.
Now that the U.S. military is returning home, it is time for us to work together on the East Asian Community and Southeast Asia. At this time, we have to pay all. I think we can do it if we try. As I say many times, listed companies in Japan have cash on hand of 506 trillion yen. They have money that we can spend without working for a year and cash that we can withdraw right now. Somehow, they've saved as much cash as they can and haven't done anything. That's why Japan has money this time. That's why Japan is going into deflation this time.
When the war ended, neither the country nor companies had money, so it was hyperinflation. It was because of the government's failure. It was the same at the end of the Edo period. It was a terrible inflation. This time, we have money, so it's deflation. That's why it's hyper-deflation, super deflation in Japan. Well, it's super deflation, so you can live with cash. You can live, so You can't die. It's much better than hyperinflation. It's only taking about the situation in Japan.
Well, I think we should calm down a little and fix the country. Therefore, there is a possibility that the Cabinet will be dissolved or resign en masse from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. Mr. Taro Yamamoto will make a breakthrough in the election. They're trying to present a united front against the government. I don't know if it will be until the change of government, but opposition parties will grow. That's for sure. Then, the LDP will be split. In the end, the government won't change unless the LDP is divided. Politics is difficult even if the opposition party grows, so the ruling party has to split. But it's already broken. Therefore, if it continues to break apart, politics will move in interesting ways.
（２）The Japanese economy is in a critical stage.
・Trump's Strong Yen and the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement
・MMT Theory: Large increase in deficit-financing bonds
・Consequences of rising long-term interest rates and asset prices
The problem is the Japanese economy. First, it's about President Trump. This year, the yen has been weak, but Mr. Trump is furious. ... . The dollar has gone up against the euro, against the yuan and against the yen. In short, he is very angry about the weak yen, the weak yuan and the weak euro. "What's going on? The Fed can quickly lower interest rates and move them to negative rates." he said. He gets angry and says "The currency is just too high." and writes on twitter often. His writing style is “great” and unstoppable. He's writing for anger. In short, for the presidential election next year, he wants to lower the dollar and increase employment. Well, because it's a completely zero-sum game in the world.
Cars are in a recession. Cars don't sell well at all, so it's just a matter of who takes the rest of the market. A country with cheap currency is supposed to take it. If things continue like this, jobs won't grow in the U.S. That's why Mr. Trump wants to make the dollar weak. He wants to make the dollar weaker and create more jobs.
And Mr. Trump is also talking about farmers. These days, he often says, "With the dollar so high, American farmers can't make it.". Farming in the U.S. is so hard that more and more farmers are committing suicide. In Wisconsin, the number of suicides is increasing too much, so they are discussing what to do to reduce the number of suicides. In France too, agriculture is hard, in China it is hard, in Japan it is hard, in America it is hard, in Canada it is hard, and there is no country where agriculture is well practiced. When doing agriculture based on capitalism, no one can succeed. It's no good even if the government subsidizes it. Even though there are subsidies everywhere, the results are terrible.
After all, the price of oil doesn't go up in the United States, so the energy is not good. The car is not good. Farming is also bad. As a result, Mr. Trump gets mad. Then he'll end up like President Nixon. The president's authority will take the dollar down at once. That's why “the strong Trump yen” can come anytime. It will come in an instant. It's just a moment, so you should think about it and make assumptions. 90 yen, 80 yen, I think it will be 50 yen. When President Trump enters his 2nd term, I think it will be 50 yen. That's because Mr. Trump is going to lower the dollar. He's collecting dollars from the world. That's why we need to be careful about the strong yen ahead. Looking at the business world and politics in Japan today, I think it's a little bit silly that they just say, "It will go like this." and they don't do anything. I think that's the source of the mistake.
If a stormy appreciation of the yen comes to us, exports will stop. The phrase "What are you going to do then?" is probably unexpected. They say, "unexpected appreciation of the yen". The phrase "What are you going to do then?" is probably unexpected. They say, "unexpected appreciation of the yen". Because what they are assuming now is between 105 yen and 110 yen, it will be unexpected for them if it is below 100 yen. They say, "unexpected appreciation of the yen". So in the end, it's just corporate restructuring approaches, including negative effects of layoffs. In short, they're going to execute a massive restructuring again. They're hopeless. But in order to avoid that, we have to change the economic structure that focuses on car exports, and this is everywhere. Cars are exported all over the world. While stopping using cars as the main industry, we can run the economy without exporting. We have to expand domestic demand and change to what we can do to improve people's livelihood.
Unfortunately, such a story is not heard in Japan. It may be a little popular in Europe, but I can't hear it in Japan at all. When it comes to strengthening the country, the main topic is what to do with a bridge that is about to collapse. Seeing such things, the government and the business world don't have such a big vision, so small Japanese companies and the private sectors have to work hard.
Let's talk about future investment. I should think like this. For example, there is natural scenery. This is called nature. It is natural. First of all, the land has nature. Nature has not only the appearance but also what can be harvested and what lives there. And then, it’s important to decide what kind of system we can put there. For instance, do you want to turn on electricity? Do you want to use a wireless phone? Do you turn on the Internet? Which do you prefer to use nuclear power or hydraulic power?, etc. Or is the building made of wood or is it made with perfect air tightness like triple glasses? This is what selecting a system means. Or would you like to make a wide road to drive a lot of cars or a system that only requires walking? This is what selecting a system means. Therefore, civilization depends on what kind of system is adopted when such nature exists. It's a choice. What can we do now?
For example, around 1955. When the postwar reconstruction started, the biggest problem for people at that time was transportation. The domestic transportation was the obstacle. It was a story that unless the traffic problem is solved, Japan cannot grow. That's why Tokaido Shinkansen came out. By embracing this new civilization, the Tokaido Shinkansen was a success. Whether it's the Shinkansen that runs in front of Mount Fuji, which is often photographed, or the Shinkansen that runs under the five-storied pagoda of Kyoto, the world thought "Japan is interesting.". People around the world were surprised at the contrast between the prettiest railway and the prettiest ancient nature, and the historical capital of Kyoto and the most advanced railway.
This is because Japan has made this comparison naturally since then. People around the world have been amazed by the way nature and a new civilization were born in Japan, such as the contrast between the very beautiful ancient nature and the state-of-the-art railway system, and the contrast between the ancient capital of history, Kyoto, and the state-of-the-art railway system.
That's why it's not so difficult. So first of all, we have to restore this nature. For example, mountains are rough. Rivers are rough. Nature must be restored. Also, there are some dangerous places when people live in now. It's dangerous to stay any places where the river mouth is low.
So, from now on, if you really want to build a safe town, the old roads and the sand dunes and the natural levees are good. That's where people lived from 50 to 60 years ago. Most of those places, including places where people lived until 100 years ago are able to escape the dangerous levels of water. We should build high-rise buildings there. There aren't many places like that. So we should build houses where water doesn't come. As a result, we can use the rest of the land and places as we like. For example, if the factory is in a dangerous place, it's better to put all the machines on the second floor. The first floor can be used as a parking lot. In that way, it can be done with a little ingenuity. And in the case of farmland, you should insure it. If the water comes, insurance can be covered. There is no other way. That's why it's not so difficult if you do it that way. It's a matter of choice.
Also, what is interesting to watch now is IT related. It includes blockchain. I think this goes on and on. I was in Mito yesterday. Mito is an agricultural area. Some people say, "I really want to manage the supply chain using the blockchain system". There are good points and bad points because all the management work is transferred. The good thing is that management is simplified and transparent. The bad news is that people who are doing what they used to do may lose their jobs.
It's a gateway to an era when most people are not needed for tertiary industries. Because tertiary industries currently support most employment, the absence of jobs there means that people have to do jobs outside of industry. For example, as I said, agriculture. Apart from small-scale ones, there are huge large-scale ones in both the United States and Australia based on capitalism, everyone fails. They can't do anything about it. Capitalist agriculture may be difficult now. Maybe we should make it smaller.
In short, it's better to say that making life, work and food is not an industry but a part of our daily lives. We need to draw a line there. You draw a line between the part you do as a profession and the part you do as your own house. In this way, a person who has been an industrial person may have some jobs as an industrial person, but he/she is a real member of society who lives for the community, educates each other, or works for society.
This year, companies in the U.S. have switched to their paths and announced that they would refuse to manage only for shareholders. So companies can no longer afford to say, "Companies make only money, so social contribution is not a company's job.". Companies are also acting to improve society.
Big companies have 506 trillion yen in cash on hand, there are a lot of engineers in Japan, there is a lot of farmland, there are a lot of houses left, to be frank, there are also buildings left. Resources are cheap all over the world if you want to buy them. We have everything. The only thing missing is a leader. We don't have any future leader yet. There is no leader who brings together different people and creates a path for the future. We're in a leader recession. So the first thing you have to do is develop leadership. In any case, the best thing is to train new leaders. From that point of view, it is the same in the Meiji period and after the war. So there is no future without training leaders. So it's up to the leader to make full use of any technology or nanotechnology. I think next year will be the year to know that.In that case, for-profit companies, nonprofit companies, and families are all the same. It's a reorganization of teamwork. So, I think, when blockchain is coming in and diplomacy is completely replaced, the last thing we need now is to train new leaders. At any rate, there is no doubt that Japan is in a leader recession.
So when you think about the economy, the outer moat is buried. The global recession is not likely to stop, and since Trump is America's first policy, the international division of labor that has been in place until now will be dissolved. It's not a complete dissolution, but the big one is a dissolution, and each country has its own way of doing it. Therefore, we cannot wait for the simultaneous expansion of world investment, world trade, and world finance in and after the 1990s. It's an economy where you switch your mind, where blockchain and other innovations come in and you can't get it back. You have to move everything forward.
As I just said, what kind of system should we put on nature to recover? For example, would you like an old-fashioned house with a slight draft like this? Or would you like a house with perfect air tightness like triple glasses? It becomes an argument about which is better. I think each person has his or her own likes and dislikes. I think there are preferences. For example, some say, "I don't want to live in a cold house when I get old." while others say, "This is the house where people live.". It is better to respect each perspective. It doesn't have to be one. That's why we choose by ourselves. That's what we need to do from now on, and we have no choice but to do it next year. Otherwise, we can't open up the future.
And another important thing is about government bonds. There is a story about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). In MMT theory, there is talk of a huge increase in deficit-covering bonds. It started with the Liberal Democratic Party. What it means is a theoretical story to the Ministry of Finance: "It's all right, so issue more deficit-covering bonds.". The Ministry of Finance makes a theory. There's a MMT saying, "Stop talking. We can issue more government bonds.". The current government, politicians, and people who are in trouble are just throwing money at them. If they don't have money, they can't do their job, so they want to spread money as soon as possible. They're talking about "We have MMT, so we can issue more government bonds.". But I'm wondering if it's really all right.
Can they really issue as many government bonds as they want? Please look at the other side of the resume. There are two graphs. First, in the above graph, it is the level of the yield of Japanese government bonds due 10 years. For the past year. It was coming down. However, interest rates have been rising rapidly since September of this year. What it means about this September is the moment when oil facilities were attacked in Saudi Arabia, the world knew that American defense weapons would be of no use in front of Russia or Iran.
Around that time, financial markets around the world were also in turmoil. It became clear from that moment that the U.S. would not be able to beat Russia. Interest rates in Japan and the U.S. started to rise in earnest. Now that I mention it, we saw the end of the government. The United States is a military state. If their weapons were totally unbeatable to Russia, wouldn't that be the end of government? They say they will withdraw from Afghanistan. The countries that have invaded Afghanistan so far are all gone. History really revolves around cause and effect.
That's why interest rates started to rise in the United States and in Japan. So, with September at the bottom, it is starting to rise. It seems to exceed zero soon. In this situation, I think the interest rate will go up whether it is MMT or not. Does saying "MMT, MMT" reduce interest rates? It can't go down. So it's silly. After all, the interest rate is rising. And when the interest rate goes up, do you see that the fluctuation is large? If you look at this graph, the situation on the left is going down by two-thirds. The fluctuation of interest rate is small. It is small. There is a big swing on the right side. The fact that interest rates are going up with this big fluctuation is proof that they are being sold in earnest.
When the market price really starts to rush, it goes up and down like this. On the other hand, when it goes up slowly, or especially when it goes up, the interest rate is falling. Price and interest rates are inversely correlated. When it is moving slowly, it is when someone is lifting it. When there is a real mixture of buying and selling, it moves up and down like one third of the right side. That's why this violent up-and-down movement is the real way of price collapse. That's why the government bond market has started falling.
What the Bank of Japan says about this is that it doesn't really care. So they're saying, "Don't worry, the economy is recovering slowly.". The Bank of Japan says it has no intention of further easing its monetary policy. Moreover, they say that they will not provide financial support. The government says it will issue more government bonds and the Bank of Japan will buy them. But the BOJ is clearly saying it won't buy it. If Mr. Abe quits, Mr. Kuroda will also quit. As for who will be next, Mr. Amemiya, the vice-president will be the one. Since he's from the Bank of Japan, he'll never cooperate with the Fiscal Planning Agency. That's why the Bank of Japan doesn't loosen its grip on the money. Then the interest rate will go up.
So it's a desperate election. That's why I think they will try to raise the interest rate by force. That's why I think they are going to issue more government bonds and raise interest rates by force. Party Secretary General Mr. Nikai once said, "Deficit government bonds were 10 trillion yen." but things have changed and the number is decreasing. For some reason, the deficit-covering bonds are 3 trillion yen. But when interest rates start to rise this much, it's going to be a disaster. Once the interest rate starts to rise, it will not return to its original state so easily.
So there are two. One thing, it's good for banks. They said, "Negative interest rates are a nuisance.". They'll make enough money at a positive interest rate. And since it's a positive rate, they don't have to say, "Do more monetary easing.". They can make money with this.
But at the same time, if the interest rate rises, the current assets will go down. The loan claims, mortgage claims, securities, government bonds and corporate bonds that they already have will go down. So, which effect is bigger? Will there be more positive investment in the future? Is the minus they have now bigger? Which is bigger? I think the previous minus is bigger.
Especially when interest rates go up, real estate stops suddenly. That's why the real estate industry is in a red light when interest rates start to rise. It's the same in the U.S. If you look at the situation these days, there is a story that the real estate bubble burst in Okinawa. That's why real estate is over when the interest rate rises. In that case, Japanese banks also provide strange real estate loans, so they will fall over.
But now the negative interest rate is over, so it's not too unusual. Well, I wonder what the banks will do. If the government decides to increase the issuance of deficit-covering bonds through this MMT, interest rates will jump. If that happens, the country will be helpless. As interest rates rise, the government issues new bonds. The interest rate of the refunding government bonds will rise all over the place. That's dangerous. In short, the interest rate is going up rapidly in front of you. ... of refinancing bonds and newly issued bonds. Then, the financial situation becomes more and more tight. That's tough. That's why people say, "Why does Japan have such a debt of 1 quadrillion yen?" It's easy, and for some reason 1 quadrillion yen national bonds didn't melt down the market.
In other countries, they can't issue government bonds because if they just issue them a little more, the interest rate will go up and the market will melt down. So even a small amount of money is spent carefully. They had no choice but to cut their vested interests and make a proper budget. Only in Japan, no matter how much government bonds were issued, they were prepared to accept them without a bottom. If the government issues bonds like this, interest rates will soar and the market will melt down, but it will not. They're heavy drinkers, aren't they? No matter how much they drink, they can't get rid of it.
Japan has accumulated a debt of 1 quadrillion yen by doing something really strange. Usually, before they can accumulate so much debt, the market will melt down and they won't be able to increase their debt. And also, they won't be able to increase their issuance of government bonds, as a result, they will be forced into fiscal consolidation. Over the last 30 years of the Heisei era, they have accumulated this debt of 1 quadrillion yen. Before that, Japan didn't borrow so much money, so the country paid back the money. Japan has been accumulating debt for the last 30 years, and I think this is about to end. I feel something like that.
For example, if a strong Trump yen comes and 90 yen or 80 yen comes, the government can do only one thing. No matter how the interest rate rises or what they do, all they can do is to throw money. There are so many unemployed people in the nation that we can't let them die. If the yen continues to rise, the number of jobless people will flood the country, and we can't let them die. Now, no matter what the interest rate goes up, the government has no choice but to throw money. The interest rate will definitely go up. So in this deflation, the government has to give more money. Somehow, we have to get new investments turned on and put them back in gear. There's no way but to start rebuilding the civilization I just mentioned. Otherwise, there's no way out of this deflation.
I think this is a structural change in the international market. As it says in the resume, the long-term interest rate and the asset price will continue to be listed, so the real estate will go down first. Corporate bonds are going down. Government bonds will also fall. We have to be careful about the negative impact of a drop in assets. The interest rate on investment will go up, but before you enjoy it, your assets will go down, so I think it will be more difficult. First of all, interest rates have risen rapidly. Again, if deflation is coming, the most important point right now is the appreciation of the yen by Mr. Trump. The Trump yen has risen, deflation has come, the government has no choice but to pay, but the only way out is to rebuild civilization. It's all about reinvesting to rebuild civilization in a completely different way. So We have no choice but to change our mind.
Also, in microeconomic terms, SoftBank is famous all over the world. "Are they all right?" people say. I don't think so. The future of such a debt-ridden company will be particularly hard if interest rates rise. It will be especially hard if stocks go down or the yen goes up. That is an unstable factor. I don't think it's just SoftBank. When SoftBank jumps, mega banks also jump. That's going to be a big problem.
And in the chart below that you're looking at, this is the United States Overnight Repo Rate, which is the interest rate in the U.S. money market. To put it simply, this interest rate is called the repo rate, which is the interest rate for loans between banks. Banks have cash flow every day, but depending on the day, there are days when they have more or less funds.
For example, at the end of the year, all the people withdraw money, so banks run out of money. If that happens, banks will run out of money, so in that case, the central bank will give them some money. On the other hand, after the New Year, the sales of shops and offering money are returned to banks. When the new year comes, the bank has more money. Then, it is a short-term market operation in which the central bank absorbs the money and prevents the interest rate from moving too much.
So the funding of short-term interest rates is mostly overnight, lending money to each other overnight. Basically, this interest rate doesn't move much. It depends on the monetary policy of the central bank, but it does not move up and down so quickly. Because it is cash flow, it is dangerous to move up and down. But look at this. It jumped from 2% in September this year. This is the skyrocketing interest rates following the events in Saudi Arabia on September 14th I mentioned earlier. In other words, at this point, there was a huge shortage of dollars in the United States. In other words, there are more than one bank that cannot raise dollars. Several banks came out. This is a weighted average of interest rates, so if there is only one bank, it won't be like this. Many financial institutions had high interest rates. This is the beginning of the chaos, and the Fed has actually been pumping money into the short-term markets since this time. They say, "It is not monetary easing.". They say, "in response to market conditions.".
In short, the U.S. Federal Reserve is lending dollars directly to cash-strapped banks. It doesn't get better at all, and it continues during this year-end and New Year holidays. So, speaking of it, the U.S. financial market is already in a state of emergency. They just don't make a fuss. Trump says, "Lower the interest rate." but short-term interest rates in the United States have come down quite a bit. Regarding the short-term interest rate, which is linked to this, in the case of the 1 month maturity government bond interest rate, it was about 2.5, but now it has fallen to about 1.5.
From this point of view, even if interest rates are lowered or lowered in the United States, financial institutions will not stop after September. That's a terrible situation. What do you think about the exchange rate when saying short-term interest rates in the United States are falling? Do you think the dollar will go down? Do you think it will be expensive? When interest rates in the United States rise, the dollar usually falls. That's why the yen is going strong. What's going on now? Everything is reversed. Someone is buying dollars out of patience. People who can't afford dollars are buying dollars hard. That means there are some in Japan, too. That's why the yen is so weak.
In short, those who are getting more and more cash-strapped may be borrowing money from the Fed. And they're buying dollars at the same time, aren't they? That's why the yen is rising and the dollar is falling.
This is definitely a financial crisis, so it's a dubious depreciation of the yen. On the other side of the dubious depreciation of the yen, I feel that there is actually a financial crisis in Japan. Because there's no reason to go for a weaker yen when short-term interest rates in the United States are falling. That's why Trump is angry. "Why is the dollar so strong and the yen so weak?" he said.
And about the price of gold in dollars. It's a little bit different from a yen-based building, so the direction of the upstairs and downstairs is different. This is the dollar gold price for the past year or so. If you look at this, it rang up before September, and then it's coming down. When I see this kind of thing, I always think it's a fake market price. $1,270 in May and the most expensive place in September is $1,540. Wasn’t the information already out? There must have been some people who bought gold in advance because they knew the story of Saudi Arabia and that the war was coming.
There was an air strike in Saudi Arabia on September 14th. Interest rates in the United States began to rise steadily from September 3rd for no reason. It's strange. The interest rates for all maturities are starting to rise and I wonder, "what will happen.". On Friday, the 13th, the interest rate went up, and on the 14th, the Saudi incident happened. Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia, the world's third-largest defense outlay, had a state-of-the-art U.S. interceptor, Iran launched hundreds of kilometers of missiles and drones to attack it. However, Saudi Arabia and U.S. could not detect it at all. In other words, the missile could not be detected. They were unarmed.
The game is almost over. The interest rate in the United States fell from Saturday, the 14th to Monday, the 16th. When I saw that, I was definitely sure they had certainly known the story of Saudi Arabia on September 3rd. Because if no one knows the market, the interest rate will soar to the point where there is no market from 14th to 16th. Well, the interest rate has gone down since the 16th. This is an insider. So, in short, they buy by rumor and sell by fact. There was a rumor that the United States lost.
As a matter of fact, gold started to fall from that time. The gold that was bouncing up until then is the right shoulder sagging. The people who are buying gold are Chinese, so I think they are increasingly in financial trouble. They're buying gold for cash. When the gold goes down a lot, someone pushes it up. As you can see from this graph, from March to May, it's going down slowly and far. Well, it went up in June, but it's going down again. So, no matter how you look at it, it's going downhill. After all, people who are in financial difficulties are selling them. That's why people are selling more and more. In short, right now, it's a process called liquidation in which people sell off assets. It is a process to remove. If they sell it at a stretch, it will plunge, so they sell it slowly. But when they are short of cash, they sometimes rush to sell. If you look at the gold market, I think it's pretty tough.
The index of business conditions in October came out. The leading indicators fell 0.1 points from the previous month, marking the 3rd consecutive month of decline. The coincident index fell 5.6 points from the previous month to the first drop in 2 months. This coincident index's 5.6 point drop is the same index as when the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred. In fact, the current economic conditions in October are as bad as those of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The index of business conditions this time had a strong impression. The contribution of individual series to the previous month's difference in coincident indices is shown below. Operating income from all industries contributed only marginally to the increase, but mostly to the decrease. So the statistics show that all industries are in recession. Since all industries are in recession, it's a depression. Although the government don’t say anything, it's a depression. They haven't done anything and rejuvenated any industries, so it's a quiet depression or old age. If they rejuvenate their industry, they'll be as young as they can be. Because it's getting old without doing anything, the economy is in recession.
And there is a graph of coincident index. The peak was around the end of 2017 when bitcoin was skyrocketing. Bitcoin skyrocketed around December 2017. Around this time in 2017, bitcoin went up like crazy. When we look at the coincident index, that was the peak of the economy. Since then, it has leveled off a little, and it has been falling since around July this year. That's why the overall economy was peaking. So, if the economy is going into a recession, we shouldn't continue the way we've been doing things. All you have to do is change the way. They think it's tough because they don't do anything to change it. Now, the economy is in a recession like the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred.
（３）What will become of the Communist Party of China?
・The world is Pro-China and Anti-communist, and Extermination of Communist bandit
・With the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, China is at a complete loss.
・In fact, the Communist Party of China has no fundamental strategy.
Then, let's go back to the resume. Now I'd like to talk about the Chinese Communist Party. I've been reading Chinese blogs recently. China has been under complete control since 2017. Face recognition, the Internet and mobile phones are all managed. It's going to be a big problem if they just say some superfluous words. So even those who come to Japan will never tell the truth. Whether they say it in Japan or in the U.S., if they say one superfluous thing, their family goes missing or if they don't go that far, someone comes to “teach” them. I've heard since 2017 that "There's the Great Wall of Electronics, and it's really tough." and was wondering how severe it is. But it's China. Even under such circumstances, there are blogs that the Chinese Communist Party can never find out.
First, when it comes to the economy, it peaked around 2016. From 2015 to 2016, the stock price of Shanghai in China skyrocketed. After that, there's a big crash in 2016. That must be Mr. Trump. If he had not become the president of the United States, China would have had plenty of room to grow, despite doing bad things. China was crushed by him. That's why stock prices plunged in 2016, and the recession has spread considerably since then.
If you look at China after all, there are bankruptcies and unemployment everywhere. There seems to be a lot of real bankruptcies and unemployment. I hate to say this, but there are many illiterates in China. So, if people don't graduate from school, they have no job at all. If they make a fuss about it, they'll be arrested soon. If they complain, they'll be arrested soon. Even people who work for foreign companies don't have a job. They're getting paid half. I hear the situation is just like cutting his/her salary in half and getting a job. It depends on the type of business, but it seems that it's hard to find a job unless a Chinese who works in a foreign company in mainland China says roughly that a half salary is enough.
Also, the northeastern part of former Manchuria seems to have a very bad economy. That area is the base of the Chinese Communist Party. The Japanese army built factories and coal mines over there in Manchuria. The Communist Party of China of Mao Zedong “succeeded” it. That's why the Communists are stronger in the northeastern part of China. They say they are patriotic, but economically they can't live without Beijing. There are a lot of state-owned enterprises and no money is coming from Beijing, so they must be expecting from the Korean Peninsula. No matter how it turned over, the money won't come from Beijing anymore.
North Korea also started to grow in the era of Kim Jong Un. They're talking about sanctions, but they're getting more and more cutting-edge machines, more and more tourism, more and more medical care, and most of the missiles that come into Russia and China. Kim Jong Un often goes to Mount Baekdu. Mt. Changbaek. It is a sacred place for the Korean people as well as the Manchurians. Mount Baekdu is a common sacred place for the Korean and Manchurians. Beijing can't help the northeastern part any more, so it's coming toward the Korean Peninsula.
Korean people in the Korean Peninsula also have exchanges. That's why the Korean Peninsula and the former Manchuria seem to be unified. That makes sense about the development of North Korea. That's why North Korea is in a situation where it can fight a war of attrition even if the economic sanctions are not lifted from the U.S. It's totally different from the time of Kim Jong-il.
That is why, if you recall, there was a huge recession after the Lehman shock, and the government spent 50 trillion yen. These are the name of China's New Northeast Revitalization Strategy and China's Western Development strategy. In China's New Northeast Revitalization Strategy, the bubble burst. At least three banks went bankrupt this year, and two of them are in the northeast. China tried economic development in Tibet and Xinjiang in the west, but they couldn't do it at all. So they stopped all economic development and created places like prisons over there. In short, it turned Tibet and Xinjiang into a testing ground for tight surveillance. That is now Xinjiang and Tibet. The reason why the government decided to make it a place like a prison was that it was far from economic development. People revolted and resisted the government, so they made the area like a prison. That's why it's so bad.
Therefore, we have to renew our awareness and that regime is reaching its limit. They're already doing things like the Cultural Revolution. They do things like kill people when they say something unnecessary. In other words, the surveillance is so strict that no one can tell the truth even if they go abroad. I feel sorry for them. That's why I can see Trump's movements. We have no choice but to support them. China is already like a papier-mache tiger by which the government is powerless even though it appears powerful.
So, Trump came out and supported the riot in Hong Kong. Even if the Chinese Communist Party oppresses by force, it won't subside at all. The democrats won an overwhelming victory in the election. And Taiwan's presidential election is next year. Judging from Hong Kong, it will be a victory for President Tsai. In other words, the status quo is maintained. Integration through the one country, two systems has completely disappeared. The United States is behind them, so it will not be a problem.
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act is a powerful law. If the Chinese Communist Party does something wrong in Hong Kong, it will stop all of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is the only gateway to Chinese money. Hong Kong is the only gateway to the international financial market. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act is a very powerful law because China is going to be over when y Hong Kong stops. As you can see, the enemy is the Chinese Communist Party. The world was surprised when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a close associate of Mr. Trump, gave a speech in Berlin. Mr. Pompeo said, "We are not making China an enemy. The Chinese Communist Party is our enemy.". He made it clear that China and the Communist Party are different. He finally said it. So, as the resume says, the world is The world is Pro-China and Anti-communist, and Extermination of Communist bandit. We get along well with China. We’re against the Communist Party. The bad party of the Communist Party will be exterminated.
This is important for everyone. Japan used to get help from China. Japan did such a bad thing in China. But that meant Japanese imperialists did something bad. China said “We are on friendly terms with Japan but the imperialists did bad things.”. That's why it was called anti-Japanese, not anti-Japan. Korea, too. It is still called anti-Japanese. It's a fight against imperialists. They're not fighting the whole of Japan. Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping divided the words properly. That's why Japan is what it is today.
Germany can't do that. Germany doesn't often do the separation of Nazi Germany.
That's why Germany is doing it right by saying, "It's totally different.". So, when you say anti-Japanese, it means to fight against Japan before the war, and it means to fight against imperialists, so it's a friendly relationship with ordinary Japanese. When they say anti-Japan, they make all Japanese enemies, but when you look at Korea carefully, they say anti-Japanese recently. They wouldn't call it anti-Japan. So, in the sense of getting along well with ordinary Japanese, North Korea is the same. Everyone uses it properly. Therefore, the United States and Europe are in such a situation now. China and the Chinese Communist Party are clearly separated. It is clearly divided into "Let's get along with China. The Communist Party is an enemy.". The term of Extermination of Communist bandit means that all Chinese spies will be expelled, so they are rapidly expelling them. It has appeared one after another.
Then Japan too. It is said that Xi Jinping will come as a state guest next year, but it will be impossible in this situation. It's outrageous for the Japanese business community to try to sell things to China. Because it's the order of life, livelihood and economy. You can't do economic activities if they kill everyone. That's why China is desperate. The democrats won a landslide victory in Hong Kong's ward elections. The Communist Party of China seems to have misjudged that too. There are people in Hong Kong who like money, who like economic activities, and who are impatient. That's why the Chinese Communist Party misjudged Hong Kong. Everyone in Hong Kong trusts students. With the landslide victory of the democratic forces in the election, the Chinese Communist Party is at a loss. They can't do anything because they'll be strangled from the U.S. and Europe if they do something rough. then China will make a big fuss. Then, if they leave it alone, mainland China will make a big fuss.
And the Chinese blog I mentioned earlier. According to the administrators of blogs that are not hacked by the Communist Party of China, the number of visitors from China and the United States has increased rapidly since the incident in Hong Kong. That's why everyone is watching. So the time has finally come for the Communist Party to turn around. But at the same time, it will be a big problem if it overturns. China as a whole is very fragmented. It varies from region to region, and the gap between rich and poor is huge. To be honest, I don't know if China will be normal. The world and the country are completely different. I don't know if China can manage it properly.
People who write blogs are in the knowledge class. But there are many people who can't read in China. There are many places with electricity but there are many places without internet. They don't know what will happen if they can't eat in such a world. After all, the current recession, high prices and financial crisis will drive China to the corner. Because these recession, high prices and financial crises afflict everyone.
Intellectuals call it democracy, but there are some things that are irrelevant to the people who eat it at work today. A recession, high prices, and financial crisis suffer these people. It's a run on the wall. If this happens, there's no way to stop it. That's happening all the time this year, especially in the financial crisis. At this time, the state-owned enterprise in Tianjin will go bankrupt. The state enterprise is the default. Tianjin is the entrance to Beijing, so the Chinese government considers it the most important place. The state-run company will finally make a default. It is said that China has become unable to protect even state-owned enterprises.
That's why I think it peaked in 2016. After that, the country made the people silent and pretended that things were going well. But it collapsed here. After Hong Kong showed up and Xinjiang was revealed, the United States and Europe were quick to point out that "China is disgraceful.". So, we can almost see it.
（４）Final war in the Middle East
・The World Against Israel and American Warmongers
・Russia's latest weapons will do the trick
・Japan's Self-Defense Forces Leaving After Iran Opposes
And about the Middle East. Although they're preparing for the final war now, something is wrong with this final war. In short, honestly no one wants to fight. Honestly, Israel doesn't want to go to war, does it? Of course, Mr. Trump has no intention of fighting. But I think it means that they have to do it because they can't live without creating a state of war. It is a very strange war. First of all, you can't find the army anywhere. I haven't heard anything about the army in the Middle East.
For example, although there is an army on the Korean Peninsula, I have never heard of it going to the Middle East. Frankly speaking, the U.S. is not interested in the Korean Peninsula at all. The U.S. has no interest in the war on the Korean Peninsula. It's just a nightmare for them. The Battle of Iwo Jima, the Battle of Okinawa and the Korean War are nothing but nightmares for the U.S. military. They don't feel like doing anything. If only one bomb could be dropped, they would do it, but Russia has such a terrible missile that they can't do it anymore.
If the United States launched a missile into North Korea, it would instantly evaporate from the U.S. military bases in Japan, Misawa to Kadena. It evaporates in an instant and cannot intercept. You know what happened in Saudi Arabia in September. How “useful” is a U.S. Aegis ship? It can't detect anything. So there's no intention of fighting here.
In short, the most important thing is that the old war and the present war are totally different. As I repeat, there are people who are starting wars to make money now. They are not fighting for the national interest. In short, they don't fight a war because diplomacy is at a standstill. They have to start a war in order to make “money” for living. After the Cold War ended and the collapse of the Soviet Union, many operations related to war were privatized. Because it would be more profitable to privatize.
For instance, even if there is a new technology like UFO technology, if the government has the technology, it will not be able to make money. However, if a private company manages the technology, it can make a lot of money. If they make something and sell it to the government, they make money. That's why technology development is done by the private sector. Also, they threaten the country to pay all the budget when they cause a war. Threatening the nation is a job to show the government a complete set of evidence, including "They have missiles like this." "They’re preparing for this war." and "They committed terrorism.". "So please send the U.S. army, and this much money is necessary." the bill says.
In short, they are letting the country pay for it, so the warmongers prepare a set of quibbles for passing bills. And there's a drugstore inside the warmonger. Because there are injured people on the battlefield, there is also a pharmacy. There's communication equipment on the battlefield, and they need a meal, so restaurants are included. Also, hospitals, transportation, ships, airplanes, cars, all work with the warmongers. Even though they created a big consortium that they could do without government money, the consortium is out with Mr. Trump on board.
They formed their own coalition and became warmongers. There were warmongers in Japan, in South Korea, in the Middle East, in the United States, and they were trying to scare around, but they were crushed by Mr. Trump. Ukraine has been completely overturned. In Ukraine, the warmongers completely took over the country, and Trump kicked it out. Then they got angry and angry, and that's the current impeachment scandal. The impeachment of Mr. Trump now must be a matter of Ukraine.
The same is true of Japan and South Korea. Mr. Abe has been keeping a distance little by little and changing his position “well”. And Mr. Trump is a good talker. In order to break off the relationship at the end, Mr. Trump is asking Mr. Abe to spend four to five times as much as the cost of stationing. There's no way he can. But in Japan, there has been a talk for a long time that it should be 3 to 4 times. But I don't think so. So when you talk about money, you get it all together, "If you don't have money, it can't be helped.". So they're hard up for money. Mr. Trump has designated the CIA's Mexican drug cartel as a terrorist organization, and has said it will launch a drone strike. But when I read today's paper, Mr. Trump said, "Give them a little time.". He must have made some concessions.
And let's talk about Saudi Arabia. They can't protect their country anymore. That's why they're clinging to Japan. Saudi newspapers are making Japanese websites these days. There was an animation festival the other day. So if the Self-Defense Forces go to Saudi Arabia this time, Japanese will be held hostage. Because they are on good terms with Iran, they think that if there were Japanese, they would not shoot. They only think about themselves.
Israel must be in trouble. They've been left behind. If they continue like this, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to quit. It is said that we have no choice but to fight a war before the end of rights and interests. The Wall Street Journal reported that "Increase the number of 14,000".Then, the Secretary of Defense immediately said, "Never". That's why both sides have a civil war in America.
There are now 600 American troops in the east of Syria. While I was wondering what they were doing over there, they were occupying the largest and second largest oil fields in Syria. That must be the source of income. There was a revolt among the Republicans when Mr. Trump tried to get rid of the oil fields and let them go home. "President Trump is insolent." said Senator Graham and others. Mr. Trump said, "The oil field is ok." because making them an enemy would hurt next year's elections.
Mr. Trump is having a hard time, too. There are some Republicans who support Trump and some who are war builders, so he’s doing well not to push them too hard. He's walking on very narrow lines, isn't he? But they can't do without war. I don't know when the next war will start, but as it says in the resume, Israeli and American warmongers are rampant. The world will fight against it. That's why the game is over from the beginning. It's too late for Israel to rule the Middle East. "America is going home." said Mr. Trump. In short, it sounds like misplaced anger. Even if it's called the final war, it's a reverse gimmick. The result has been decided.
That's why Russia's latest weapons will be very “useful” this time. After the Cold War ended, the United States took it for granted that it was the strongest country in the world. That's why the development of weapons is a lump of interests and concessions. However, since Russia was totally defeated by the U.S. in the 90s and was about to be taken over by the U.S., they must have been developing weapons that would definitely win. Europe has been supporting Russia.
Europe and Russia are getting closer. That's why Europe supported the development of weapons to beat the U.S. Americans must have been careless. They made weapons as a bundle of interests and concessions, but the weapons were useless. So Russia wins in the end. Trump is pulling dollars, and the U.S. military is pulling too. Then the Eurasia continent will leave it to Russia. It's about bringing the world back to two poles. There was also a story of the three poles. Mr. Kissinger said that the tripartite is good including China. But the Communist Party will no longer hold on. So, for the time being, there are two poles. I think it means that Russia will take care of the Eurasian Continent and bring it back to the bipolar stage. I mean, the world has gone crazy since we've made it one.
And the Japanese Self Defense Force is going to the last place, so I wonder if it's all right. Well, Japan doesn't make either of them an enemy, but if we go there, we will be involved in the war. The Iranian government has clearly said, "Even if Japan's Self-Defense Forces come to the Middle East, they will not contribute to peace at all.". Even if they go, nothing will happen, so I hope they don't go. But after this last war is the rise of Islam. If that's the case, the Wiggle area is sure to be attacked from the west, saying, "Oust the Communist Party of China". I think the Han people over there will run away because Islam comes from the west. Then Tibet will be liberated and the Communist Party will end there. You can see the general flow now. Islam will come out next time, so it will be hard after that. If Sunni and Shi'a are included, there is no way to stop them. There is such a conflict in Iraq now. You can see such a place.
（５）Both work and life are in the crucial moment.
・Huge restructuring due to recession and innovation
・Escaping from a disaster requires an early move
・A major shift in lifestyle is required.
As for the future, as I mentioned in resume, next year will be a crucial time for both work and life. Indeed, both work and life are in the crucial moment, and one of them is the recession. As I said before, the economy is in the same bad condition as the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred. Second, artificial intelligence and innovation are coming in, and there's a world that doesn't need people. These two things will eventually cause a major restructuring. This is not only in Japan, but all over the world. 1000 to 10,000 people are already laid off during the restructuring efforts around the world, mainly in the automobile industry. It really feels like the times are over. That's why it's going to be a big restructuring, so Japan is getting noisy.
Also, it is the wisest to move quickly to escape from a disaster. It's a story of whether to escape after water comes or before water comes. It's that serious. That's why a major change in lifestyle is needed. So, no matter what you think, the future will be a major shift in lifestyle. As I said earlier, being an industrial person is not everything. There's a way to live as an industrial person, but you can do it in places that have nothing to do with it. For example, there are various ways of living such as for the community, for some industry, for others, for hobbies, etc. That's why we are in an era where we cannot be categorized as an industry.
And the bureaucratic system is almost over. If the Communist Party of China collapses, the bureaucratic system will end. Then something like a blockchain takes its place. In short, if the leader is at the top, the rest is mostly done by machines. On the contrary, the leader at the top is really the most important. The person who uses the machine is the most important, so the leader at the top should have a very serious person. But in both the private sector and the government offices, the machines take care of the rest.
Then, you start with training the top leaders and think about what to do. Now, everything from accountability to transparency, and we have to change the way we work to match that, so it's pretty impressive to replace the system. But that's probably the role of the younger generation. To be honest with you, I think the future will be under millennials. In the case of Japan, people in their 40s or younger are active. The main characters will be the ones in their 40s or younger.
Elderly people will be fine as long as they have cash, so please don't move around too much. For elderly people, it's not good to put too much value on the market, so it's enough to have yen. The bank account will be paid even if the bank collapses. So as long as you stay in the country, I think it will be all right for the elderly if they have cash.
The focus of young people is to change nature and systems to meet the new era. Their job is to regenerate nature and replace the system. That's why the blockchain goes in there. The values of young people are important. When I was talking with someone the other day, I thought it was serious. There is no businessperson who can be a hero for today's 20's. HORIEMON, Mr. Horie is a lot older for them. You know that they are not interested in the economy. There are heroes in sports and entertainment fields, but not in a business world. This is the current Japanese economy. Well, we have to change that.
In Hong Kong, young people started making a big fuss. They are the youngest generation, some are around 20 years old and some are teenagers. This generation is called Generation Z in the world. Generation X (Baby boomers), Generation Y (Millennials), and Generation Z (Gen Z). Gen Z is said to be a generation that is very difficult to communicate with, and it is also said that it is not good to communicate with the older generation, but the characteristic of this generation is that they have been using smartphones since they were born.
In Hong Kong, Gen Z started a revolution leading society. Everyone has been surprised. Hong Kong is the place where elderly people started supporting Gen Z who risked their lives to start a revolution for society. I know what they're saying. "Adults are terrible. They are the people who experienced the Tiananmen Square incident grew up. " Even though it’s a difficult time for children, adults listened to what the Communist Party said without making a fuss as long as they were good. ""They are trying to live a peaceful life, thinking only of their meals. " "What will they do for our future? " The young people in Hong Kong say, "We despaired of adults. That's why we stand up.". They flew at the risk of their lives. They risked their lives to take action. They were locked up in university on November 11th. As a result, Hong Kong people stood up saying, "This is not good." and rushed to the university with food. That was a big turning point. That's why older people realized, "We should not let young people die because of what we have done so far. They are right.".
In Japan, there are people who say that it was their fault to have done nothing but money for themselves. That's where Hong Kong got its start. I think it will spread to the world from here. Japan is not a country of revolution but a country of restoration, so the time and method are different. In the U.S., young generations are the leaders of revolution. They're talking about a tax on wealth. The younger generation is saying that they should pursue democratic socialism. The younger generation members are fighting against the older members. Also, young people are leading the protests in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and saying, "This war economy cannot be achieved.".
Since young people oppose Brexit, what will they do after Brexit? They might say it's unforgivable. In France, people from a wider generation say, "macron is undesirable". France is always noisy and there's a lot of internal trouble.
Japan is the only country where everyone is silent even though they are there. I don't think we can do that in China. Well, I think Japan will change from now on. Young people in their 40s or younger are motivated to move and change. The older generation is going to help where they can. Because we have to connect the history, we have to connect the world created by young people with the history before and after, which is the biggest job. The rest is diplomacy. When it comes to diplomacy, we have a lot of work to do because it takes over everything from the past. We need older people to be more active here. It's old people's job to clean up bad loans and pensions. So I think it will be a little hurried from now on. We'll finally see a new light next year.
Q&A
Question：When recession and innovation lead to large-scale restructuring, how should we deal with it?
First of all, what I can say at this stage is to look for the next possible job. That’s something everyone did 25 years ago. Since about 1995, the economy has been going crazy. Everyone started thinking, "This is terrible." and everybody was preparing both for war and peace. They were all planning where to go if they can't stay at the moment. You can't rely only on your current company's network. There were many foreign companies at that time. So, it’s important to go around and see what opportunities there are, and then find your own lifestyle and where you want to work.
If you don't do anything, You will go to a public employment security office after it's over. When people who didn't do anything went to a public employment security office at the end, it was full of people. This is terrible. From now on, the current employment system will change over the medium to long term, so you have to choose your lifestyle now. That’s why the idea of “Know, Go, Explore, Meet” is important. Anyway, at first I don't think you can think of it, but you have to go to various places and look for something. I think something will change. That's the surest way. In the end, if there is a connection, you will end up going where you had a connection. If there is no connection, there is nothing you can do about it. So, I think going from place to place to make a connection is the surest way.
About qualifications, I think it's better to get a qualification if you can't do a job without it, but it's natural that you can't succeed because you got a qualification. That's why we need to broaden our network of friends as soon as possible. I think that is the surest way.
Question：What are your thoughts on basic income in Japan?
I think they do basic income in Japan. Korea is already doing it. Pension life is a kind of basic income. In short, the structure is very similar to a basic income, because money comes and supports you without doing anything special. But it is different from public assistance. For example, if you receive 150,000 yen for public assistance and work part-time for 20,000 yen, 20,000 yen will be reduced from public assistance. So welfare is different from basic income.
A basic income is just a base, so you can add the amount you worked. So, frankly, it's like a Japanese pension. The fact that pensioners are active in Japan is probably due to the support of pensions. At present, it is done in the pension part, so if we extend this to the younger generation, it will be better. There are some things we have to do for society, but if we spend our time just for our lives, we can't do anything. So it's a good idea to support with a basic income to live a minimal life. That will make it easier for various people to do activities to improve society. So, I think it's very serious to try to expand this.
There are various systems to consider how to do it. From now on, I think a true basic income will start. Since I'm getting older, I think companies in the Showa period were doing something like basic income. In those days, everyone who can or cannot work comes to the office and gets paid. I think it was the basic income that the sidetracked employees were paid without being fired. What they did with the money was that they were doing various things at home, doing things for the community, and after all, the money was going around. So I think that's fine, to be honest. Because we manage by hourly pay or something, the world becomes strange. Basic income in a broad sense makes me feel that it is a decent society.
Question：Why did the leader disappear in the first place?
A good example is Nissan's Ghosn. Nissan was on the verge of bankruptcy before Mr. Ghosn arrived. There were only leaders from the Showa era. They were leaders who could not restructure in a good way or a bad way. I was adjusting, adjusting and adjusting while watching everyone's face. They couldn't take the plunge even though they couldn't see the future in their current business. Then Mr. Ghosn appeared. He quickly started firing people. That was the appearance of a new leader. Of course, there were pros and cons. Some people said "He's a terrible guy.".
But in both good and bad ways, that leader has changed. The way of restructuring, which is often done by world leaders, started from Mr. Ghosn. Then, such a leader appeared and the company moved. Until then, nothing had moved. They couldn't do anything. They couldn’t go overseas and it stopped. They couldn't restructure. It collapsed without moving. So, it often happens that a leader comes and changes. But we're not in the age of HORIEMON or that kind of leader anymore. So, I think there will be a new type of leader.
Question：As blockchains disperse more and more, the things gathered in the center will change. Which part will change the most?
According to the work of the current government, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare manage all of education and health insurance in one place. I think that will be the first thing to see and change. There will be no centralized management and it will be divided by region. And, for example, there is a payment system. That was a common practice in the world until now, but electronic currencies are coming out more and more, and the global payment system is becoming more and more diverse. Various systems will be used to overlap each other. So the finance will change a lot. The rest is the supply chain of companies. In short, even if you've never seen or heard of a company, you can team up by joining a blockchain platform. It is not an affiliate of a company, but across countries. This area will change the structure of the economy from vertical to horizontal. After all, if you are competent, you should join the platform and go to the place where there is a stage everywhere. I think the supply chain will change a lot.
Question：In Japan's super-aging society, if the drastic restructuring due to recession and innovation begin, nursing care will become a serious problem. What do you think will become of that point?
Basically, there is nothing good about doing a major restructuring as a countermeasure. We have to start a new investment soon. At first, the government should give money to the people. They should hand over houses more and more at times like this. So, it is to create an environment where children can be born without worries. That's why the government should guarantee our income. That's how we should start to increase the number of young people. After that, we should think about how to care for the elderly.
No matter how much care we give to the elderly, it is obvious that the number of young people will not increase, and we will be stifling in few years. So now we have to make new investments quickly. Generally speaking, the economy starts with gifts. If you think the gift is not good, it is not good. People start with gifts and end with gifts. The economy is called equal exchange, but if any of you were born holding money, please raise your hand. There might be people like that. So, why are you doing business now? It's probably because someone gave you money. Or after you sell the product and exchange it for money. That's why the economy needs gifts at the beginning. Economic activity starts because there is a gift. If you don't give it to people who don't have anything, nothing will happen.
you die, you give it to someone. So, it is the economy that starts as a gift and ends as a gift. So in this case, you have to give it. At times like this, it's no good to say the yield or small numbers. You have to give it at first. For example, they should transfer the money collected at pachinko parlors to others skillfully. You draw a picture well and proceed. That's what leadership is. That's why you make everyone calm down.
So, to get back to the point, we have to do something to increase the number of young people. First, the gift economy. There are people who don't have children or marry because they feel uneasy because they don't have anything. The country should do anything such as basic income. Then we put in robots and new technologies and all kinds of health measures that can reduce the number of people needing care. For the time being, we'll have to do everything we can.
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