Jan. 2020／Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara (President, the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum)

As one of Japanese NGOs, called "the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum," we have had "lifelong learning" lectures every month since 2015.

Commentary and opinion pieces on the latest news and current affairs in Japan and around the world by Naoya Fujiwara, President at the Japan Revitalization Program and Promotion Forum are as follows: 

Introduction

I wish you a Happy New Year everyone. I look forward to your continued good will in the coming year. I feel that 2020, the second year of Reiwa era has started hurriedly. As in 1990, the second year of Heisei era, stock prices plunged from the beginning of the year. The beginning of 1990, the second year of Heisei era was the same. It went up at the beginning of 1989, the first year of Heisei era and then plunged in 1990. Well, I think that's basically how it started this year.

I think that a very big change has started. I'm going to talk about the Middle East later, but I've been looking at how the United States looks just like Russia did when they lost the Russo-Japanese War. I feel that way somehow. After this, the American army should pull it all. It would be nice if they withdrew from all of East Asia and the Middle East, but when I look at them, they still say something that they don't want to do. Then, the next thing is that a missile will fly at the life of the U.S. military. The United States claims 15 missiles with no casualties, but Iran claims 22 missiles with 80 deaths and 200 injuries. I don't know which is true.

If the American people know that there were a lot of war dead, the top would be killed by the people, just like Nicholai II during the Russian Revolution. In short, at that time Russia looked down on Japan and said, "How could a country like Japan defeat Russia?". They underestimated everything from top to bottom, and at the same time, the Russian military was in a state of collapse. In fact, in the actual decisive battle, Russia was defeated in the land battle as well as in the sea battle, and as a result, there was a revolution in Russia and Nicholas II and others were killed by the Russian people. I have a hunch it will happen this time.

The U.S. military is in a very dire situation, while the Iranian and North Korean forces have high morale. Just like Japan during the Russo-Japanese War, they were filled with patriotism and hostility. Also, it seems that they are preparing to deal with all possibilities. The U.S. Army of today is really like Russia in the Russo-Japanese War, and everything is working on the premise that "We can't lose to such a weak country.". On the other hand, Iran and North Korea seem to be united in saying, "If we don't defeat this enemy, there's no future for the country.". If the U.S. does something bad, it could be a revolution. I mean, it's going to be a revolution.

After that incident, the United States still has a long way to go. Now, I'm going to go into details, and they're saying that not only will the missiles hit all of the U.S. military in Iraq, but they'll hit Dubai and Haifa, right? They say they will drop missiles on Dubai in the UAE and Haifa in Israel in the next retaliation. Most people don't believe what they're saying. But it's the same as Russia during the Russo-Japanese War. They take it for granted that they can't lose. I think the U.S. is making a big mistake. Then, for example, whether 80 or 5000 people died, it means who started the war with Iran. It means who started the war with Iran even though the Congress doesn't approve. If people say, "What are you doing with this war?" Mr.Trump will have nowhere to go. More than him, the U.S. military has nowhere to escape.

In short, it was the same as the Russian army at that time. It was completely defeated by Japan in both land and sea battles. That's why the Russian army is collapsing from the inside. Then, there are no American warmongers anymore. That's all. The decisive battle is like that. Before that, the British Navy led by Admiral Nelson defeated the invincible fleet at the Battle of Trafalgar in Hispania at that time. Then, the Spanish navy was destroyed and the era of England came. There is a big battle when it comes to starting a war. If you lose completely in a big decisive battle, it can be the last one.

I think that the U.S. will lose the decisive battle somewhere. Soon after they lose the decisive battle, the U.S. is plunged into chaos, and the dollar's crash is not bad enough, so there's a possibility of a shoot-out. No matter who the president is, I'm afraid he'll be dragged down and thrown into chaos.

A Danish bank, called Saxo Bank often releases forecasts. Whether it was at the end of last year or at the beginning of the year, Saxo Bank announced its forecast. As I thought, they’re guessing that the next president of the U.S. is Elizabeth Warren. They are saying that she will beat Trump by an overwhelming margin of 2 million votes. Also, they're saying the dollar's nosedive and Europe's collapse. I think it's possible.

Therefore, Iran and North Korea are equivalent to Japan at the time of Russo-Japanese War. Things are going the way they want in Iran and North Korea. Then, at that time, Russia collapsed and a revolution occurred. That's why all countries, subject to the U.S. , will be in trouble. Especially, Korea was like that during the Russo-Japanese War. South Korea is still like that, but who does it depend on? For example, some people depend on Japan, some on Russia, some on China, and some on France. Anyway, South Korea is fighting with each other depending on their favorite foreign allies. Well, I think the situation is similar to that of the Russo-Japanese War even now.

The Republic of Korea was shaken because Japan invaded the country and left. They thought Russia would win in the Russo-Japanese War. Seoul thought Russia would win.
Well, that's true. Because no one thought that Japan would defeat the Russian fleet, which was said to be the strongest in the world at that time. But Russia lost, didn't they? I'm in a mess. The chaos got out of control and Japan finally annexed it. Isn't this a sign that North Korea is going to annex South Korea?

South Korea doesn't think that North Korea will beat the U.S. It's the same with most Japanese. Most people don't think North Korea will beat the United States, do they? But if North Korea wins, South Korea will be blown away and annexed to North Korea in no time. There is no other way.

In the case of Japan, it is also chaotic. They don't think of anything other than America winning. If the U.S. were to lose the naval and air wars, the Japan Self-Defense Forces would be in a state of confusion, the dollar would plummet, and everyone would be in a state of confusion, like Korea in the Russo-Japanese War. But there are no more people who want to occupy this country, and even the people who are in the market can't get anything even if they pay compensation to a Japanese company. They are on the way home. Well, it is the same from the end of Edo period to the beginning of Meiji period. It feels like there is no government, so it's just a temporary dissolution. The Japanese government which started from the Meiji Restoration will be dissolved and it will be chaotic for a while.

After that, if Elizabeth Warren comes out on top in the U.S., there will be people like Taro Yamamoto in Japan as well. Did you know there was democracy in Japan in the Meiji era? It’s called The Freedom and People's Rights Movement. There is a word called sovereign rights, “Kokken” in the opposite of democratic rights, “Minken”. The big battle of Meiji was whether it was sovereign rights, “Kokken” or democratic rights, “Minken”. Well, it was the same in the Taisho era and the beginning of Showa. The government of Japan, the government of Satsuma and Choshu, of course, will be sovereignty. On the other hand, Shigenobu Okuma and Taisuke Itagaki are on the side of democratic rights, “Minken”. If we use the language in the current newspapers or foreign languages, democratic rights, “Minken” means populism.

I think the word populism is probably the closest to the word “Minken” at that time. Populism is what Westerners say like curses, but it's not. It means democratic rights, “Minken”. That's why I think that the U.S. will suffer a decisive defeat and become like Russia during the Russian Revolution. If the worst comes to the point where the president is killed, I think the world will completely shift to democratic rights. I think it's the annihilation of sovereign power in the Western world.

In the case of Iran and North Korea, if South Korea collapses, North Korea will try to annex them together. I don't think that Iran would take the whole Middle East. Russia won't let them do that and Russia isn't expansionist. In short, Russia says to Iran, "Suit yourself, your country is yours." and I think it's abandoning Iran.

So what's going to happen in the world is that things will work where there's a mature, reliable leader. On the other hand, if everyone is confused, I think it will be a chaotic situation like the six years from the end of the Russo-Japanese War to the annexation of Korea by Japan.

So now, you know, the kind of leadership that we need in this world is not just horizontal leadership, but a big strategy. So, the longer it takes to rebuild, the more qualifications the next leader will need. It's not enough just to listen to the voices of the people when it’s getting to this point. In short, it's a strategy theory where to open the way. Strategy is not about war. In English, it is a strategy. If you don't have a good strategy, I think you probably won't be a government leader or a private leader at all. If you don't have any firm strategy, I think you probably won't be able to work as a government leader or a private leader at all.

And to add fuel to that, actually, in Japan, local finance is getting more and more bogged down. Niigata prefecture and Niigata city declared a fiscal emergency. There are many similar stories. Yesterday, I was in Nagaoka city in Niigata prefecture. A city council member I know in Nagaoka told me that the city is reducing the reserve fund and the reserve fund will be zero in 3 years. But the mayor is not trying to cut spending at all. He's just saying that it's because local allocation tax grants are decreasing, and it's not going to be an election this year. They say the mayor is unlikely to cut spending because of the mayoral election. If they do that, it will surely run out. I think Nagaoka is still a good place. I think many local governments are like that now. I think there are many places that will run out of money soon. No matter how much they pretend to have, we can't find any places with good finances.

So this time, in another way, it's going to throw Japan into great confusion. The confusion may be chaotic, but we can't keep the Heisei period procrastinating any longer. I think it's time to make it clear to everyone that it is not acceptable to spend all your savings without thinking about the future. It is not acceptable whatever you have done only for the present, money, and yourself.

Somehow I feel that Reiwa is completely different from Heisei. As I have been saying, the first two years are the most important times for the rest of each era. At the end of the first 2 years, around the end of this year, more people will realize that "Reiwa is completely different from Heisei, isn't it?". It's the same as 100 years ago. 100 years ago, the order and discipline of kings were destroyed in the First World War. As a big flow, he Russian Revolution broke out, the Soviet Union was formed, the Great Depression occurred, the Second World War occurred, and the atomic bombs occurred. Well, that may not be the case this time, but the world has changed completely. I have a feeling that such a big flow will happen again this time.

Now that the sovereign rights, called “Kokken” have collapsed and there are only democratic rights called “Minken,” it's time for the blockchain. The world of blockchain has made great progress last year. There was a lot of hype about Bitcoin the year before last. Last year, the application of blockchain progressed rapidly in each field. Japan hardly does it. The application of blockchain means innovation using blockchain. It's not about technology. Innovation using technology started in the world last year. This is completely the transition of the world of “Minken”.

While I've been reading a lot, I wonder what the next 50 years will be. What is the value of the world is the democratic thinking democratic thoughts. In short, the time will come when everyone will think and make decisions together. I think so, too. I think this is the time of democratic rights, called “Minken”. I think that the management of companies will become horizontal and change to “Minken”. And it's been rolling out in a sort of glamorous way over the last few years. That's why there is “Minken” after sovereign rights, called “Kokken” are extinguished. If you don't do it right, you'll only end up in chaos, and you'll end up in a terrible situation.

After all, war is such a thing that it brings the contradictions of 10 years to the surface at once. Usually, it takes 10 or 20 years to get things done, but it takes only 3 days. This is a war, so when I looked at the case of the Middle East and the announcement by North Korea at the end of last year, I thought, "It's time for a revolution in the U.S." I thought.

First of all, I'd like you to take a look at this. This is an annual evaluation of the U.S. military power by the Heritage Foundation in the U.S.（Conclusion: U.S. Military Power／Oct 30th, 2019 The Heritage Foundation）In the U.S., there are people who evaluate the ability of the American military. They evaluate "How is the U.S. military power now?" and publish a report every year, so let's take a look at it. The U.S. Army is the third in five stages. It's about 3 out of 5. The capacity of the U.S. Army is becoming weak. It's the second one from the bottom. The readiness is strong, but the capability is 3, and the overall is 3 in 5 stages.

Then, let's take a look at the Navy. The Navy is the third of the fifth stage. It is weak in size, and it's the second from the bottom, level two on five. And let's take a look at the Air Force. The Air Force is 3 in all evaluation criteria. Also, the Marine Corps is the third of the fifth stage. The capacity is weak as the second from the bottom. And if you look at the U.S. Military Power: Nuclear, some of them are second from the top, but some of them are second from the bottom, and their combined strength is three. The overall is the third of the fifth stage. As a whole, the U.S. Military Power is also the third of the fifth stage.

Everyone thinks the U.S. military is strong. They are not strong at all. It's 3 of 5. They are not strong at all. Just like the Russian army at the time of the Russo-Japanese War, soldiers think they are strong and are off their guard. Neither the officers nor the soldiers wanted to go to war. For example, at the Battle of Mukden, Russian soldiers were brought in by pulley over 30 days. They were taken without knowing where they were going and told, "You guys go to war here.". They didn't even know why they're going to war. And they had no idea why they need to fight at the area.

At the time, the Japanese army attacked them. So, in the end, they lost in Hoten. Whey I look at the U.S. military today, it looks similar to the Russian military back then. How many people in the U.S. military are really going to defeat Iran? How many American soldiers are serious about upending North Korea? How many General or officer, even those in the politics of the country, are seriously thinking that they really have to defeat Iran? I don't think anyone thinks so. So does North Korea.

For example, the Japanese government is the same. Everyone says, "China is insolent" but you know what they say in the papers? There have been reports that as many as 50 people have been given money as IR corruption. There are supporters and opponents of the base promotion in Okinawa. Until now, quite a few supporters have said, "Opponents are disrespectful because they are connected with China." but there is nothing wrong with that. The proponents were bribed by a Chinese company for IR. The base proponents said, "Opponents are aligned with China." but they were taking bribes from China. That is the reality of the U.S. and its dependent countries. No one really thinks they're going to fight. Because they think they're too strong to do anything, they're going to make money off this strength icon, you know. This is weak. This is weak.

So, if they have a decisive battle with Iran or North Korea, I think they will be defeated at the first try. I guess they were beaten on the first try and that's it. This time, I think America will be like Russia in the Russian Revolution. I've been watching it from the end of the year to the beginning of the year to today and I feel that way. So, I think South Korea will be annexed by North Korea.

Then, Japan became, in short, like right after the defeat in World War II, or the remains of the Boshin War in the Meiji period. I think there will be no one for a while. Also, of course, this is a big crash of the dollar, so the Japanese financial and export industries are going to be absent-minded. In the first place, when faced with the reality that "The U.S. lost the war.," most Japanese, if not all, would go into a state of absent-mindedness. It will become like old Korea, like Korea after the Russo-Japanese War.

And regarding China, Mr. Trump is really tightening the grip on China. The first U.S.-China agreement is extremely humiliating for China. I feel that it is very similar to Japan at the time of the Russo-Japanese Peace Treaty. At the time of the Russo-Japanese War, Japan won land and sea battles, but Japan's military power, or rather its strength, had reached its limit. It was the same in Russia. The revolution was starting in the west. That's why we can't prolong the war. At that time, the United States came in and mediated between Japan and Russia, and the Russo-Japanese Peace Treaty was reached. But as you all know, we couldn't get compensation for that. Japan couldn't get compensation. Karafuto was also occupied by the military, but the northern half, which was the upper half, was returned. Then the Japanese people got angry, the army got angry, officers, soldiers, and politicians all got angry. That's what happened during the Russo-Japanese War. That's not what they said.

This time, China is reaching a “phase one” trade agreement beyond the line that was said never to be crossed. It's intellectual property rights. They made a concession on intellectual property rights. Also, they made concessions on sanctions. So China is making concessions on structural issues, intellectual property rights, and sanctions. That's why it's not reported in China. Mr. Trump tried to force them to sign it on January 15th when Chinese vice premier heads to Washington. However, according to Reuters, "No, we haven't reached an agreement yet.". If the agreement is reached this time, I think the people of China will be indignant, just as Japan was angry about the Peace of the Russo-Japanese War.

In China, anti-foreignism comes out at the very end. During the Russo-Japanese War, there was the Boxer Rebellion. It's also called the Boxer Uprising. That was also perfect anti-foreignism. In short, that's the Chinese way of thinking. When the country finally comes to a standstill, they end up saying, "It's because everything is disrespectful outside, the reason is all outside." I’m afraid that this “phase one” trade agreement will ignite that.

Trump wants to force China to say, "What, so much concession?" It means "You guys made this concession." However, the U.S. is going to be in a panic and a revolution, so I think China will be in a similar situation. Because of the dollar crash and the financial crisis, the first country to fall victim to the U.S. will be China. China is connected to the U.S. through money, connected to U.S. through trade, and connected to U.S. through investment. That’s why I think China will be in chaos. After all, I think, although some people say that Mr. Trump is bad, there was no alternative to him.

For the U.S., the only way is to throw everything away and return home. Mr. Trump has said, "Put it all down. We're going home." and that's what Russia, Iran, and North Korea have always said: "Go home.". That was the only way. If the U.S. military returned home early, regretted its mistakes, apologized to the people, and said, "We'll get it right." then something could have been done. But they're still saying, "We're strong." They're still saying, "We should impose sanctions." I think it's over.

And the Heritage Foundation, which I mentioned earlier, has many interesting stories. I hear that Russia has Mach 27 intercontinental missiles today. It's a Mach 27 air-to-surface missile. Mach 27 is a missile fired from an airplane and is an intercontinental ballistic missile. If they raise the missile from Moscow, it will reach the American continent in 30 minutes. But the US military doesn't have a way to protect it. The idea is to launch a satellite into space and raise sensors. The only way is to know what they've hit.

And right after the Iraq incident, the Russian navy conducted another exercise on the Black Sea. A Mach 10 missile came out there. It's a Mach 10 ballistic missile. China has a Mach 5. There is nothing in the U.S. Aegis is useless. So, starting with the series of assassinations last year, Mr. Putin has always been smiling about this incident. He is always smiling. The smiling face of him, who seems to be working well and getting the results he wants, is always in the newspapers. In December of last year, Putin said, "Now, for the first time, the Russian military has had an advantage in arms over all the world's competitors."

For example, at the time of the Battle of Tsushima, if you look at the equipment, Russia had more equipment. Russia had more battleships than Japan. But the commander, Admiral Heihachiro Togo, watched the situation of Russia very well. He watched the naval battle after the Russo-Japanese War started. That's why he knew that "In Russia, the firing interval from warships is long. But the accuracy is low." And since then, they've been travelling around Africa from Europe, so it took them about 30 days to get there. It was the first time in history that dozens of battleships made such a long journey. They were so tired that they came to a place they didn't know at all. That's why he used a great tactic.

They came facing each other from the front and made a 180 degree turn just before attacking from the side. Nobody ever thought of such a tactic. If you make a turn just before that, you know, you usually think that the other ship is going to be killed. However, Mr. Togo later said, "I knew it was going to be okay." "You can never lose. When you turn your head in front of the enemy, it will never hit another bullet." he said.
According to Mr. Togo's tactics, they probably started turning a battleship at a distance of about 8,000 meters. Even when the Russian side shot, the Japanese didn't shoot right after they turn around. On the Japanese side, after the distance was shortened to 6,000 meters, they shot a bullet and hit the Russian very hard. In other words, Mr. Togo was calculating that the Japanese could barely hit the ball at 8,000 meters, but we could hit it at 6,000 meters. The Japanese army trained so much. That's why we won. So, that might have been called a miraculous victory, but it was a victory with careful calculation.

That's the idea. In Iraq, for example, an Iranian ballistic missile flew over and destroyed an Iraqi base. They don't have defenses. They don't have any defense, so they have to withdraw all of them right away. At the same time, Japan is no longer good, isn’t it? It was discovered on September 13rd last year that this U.S. military equipment was completely useless. When an Iranian missile and drone flew into Saudi Arabia's oil refinery, the U.S. couldn't do anything about it. Actually, this day was a turning point for the financial market.

Let me show you this. This was a turning point in the financial market, and this was all the turning point. I'd like you to take a look at this. （Fed Liquidity Injections／Jan 9th, 2020 Tyler Durden ZeroHedge） Only stocks are expensive. That's because the Fed is pouring money in desperately. Well, this graph shows how much the Fed, the central bank of the United States, is providing liquidity. This is completely different from monetary easing. To put it another way, they're pouring money into bailing out financial institutions and bailing out the financial system. At the very end here, it was September 11th last year. So this is before the Saudi attacks. There was an attack on Saturday, September 14th, and after Sunday, the chaos started on Monday the 16th. The Fed has been pouring money into the banks since Wednesday. This money is going around and around and they're buying up stocks. That's why the Fed's bailout money is the only way the market works.

So, what happened? According to the analysis of the Bank for International Settlements last year, JP Morgan withdrew all the money from the banks and transferred it to the government bonds right after the Saudi incident. And even hedge funds that borrowed money from private banks ran out of money all at once. The chaos began. You know what that means. If you lend it to a private bank, it might go bankrupt tomorrow. In that case, government bonds are still better. If it's government bonds, we won't go bankrupt tomorrow. If you take all the money you've lent to a private bank and put it in government bonds instead, that bank, or any other bank could disappear tomorrow. That's what happened this time. That hasn't stopped at all. It's getting more and more. Maybe this will continue until a revolution occurs. I think this will continue until the American Revolution.

There will be a shortage somewhere. The fuse will blow all at once, and it will be over. If we end this, it's all over at that moment, so the Fed can't end it. That's why they keep pushing it up. This means that there are a lot of people who can't borrow money from the Fed. This means that financial institutions will not be able to operate without the Fed putting money in. So, this can't be cured. In fact, they lost the final match of Iran.
If the United States does not withdraw in earnest, it will finally lose, and I think this will probably continue until the final decisive battle. If, at some point, the decisive battle causes a large number of deaths from the American army, it's all over, isn't it? I guess that's the way things are going this time. So this time it's better to run away. If you run away, you will win, and at the same time, various things will happen. You'll be in trouble unless you keep your minds calmly.

So, as I have said many times, I think it looks just like Russia at the time of the Russo-Japanese War. There are times when a revolution kills a king when he loses a war he thinks he can't lose. The Japanese did not kill Nicholas II of Russia. He was killed in the revolution. I guess it will be like that.

Let me go back a little bit, I would like to look back on Iran. Originally, the US invaded Iraq in 2003. At that time, as you know, the U.S. was trying to make money all over Iraq. So, even before the invasion of Iraq, they had held concessionary meetings under the pretext of "If we invade now, Iraq will be ours." in order to distribute oil concessions and telecommunications concessions, and to take over all the industries in Iraq and distribute the rest. Michael Moore made this into the movie "Fahrenheit 9/11". That movie had a strong impact. Michael Moore says, "This war in Iraq is a money-making war, isn't it?". A young employee at a profit-sharing meeting said, "We think war is a good thing. Some people are hard, but it's good for us.". That's what he said in the movie "Fahrenheit 9/11". That was just before the Iraq War.

That's why the war in Iraq was nothing but an allocation of concessions. That's why they were in the war. Just as it was during the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian way of warfare somehow prolongs the battle line. It's a strategic retreat. The retreat of the schedule means that it goes all the way to the back. And they never fight a decisive battle until reinforcements arrive. The Russian strategy is not to fight a decisive battle immediately, but to prolong the battle and to go deep into the heart of the country. Then, after the reinforcements arrive, it is a tactic of Russia to fight a decisive battle. In exactly the same way, the Americans were coming in from the south, and went to Baghdad with very little fighting. Hell began from there.

The hell started and the war didn't stop. President Bush at the time said, "go home". But the U.S. couldn't go home because they were in a profit sharing. So Al Qaeda came out. When al-Qaeda got stuck, ISIS emerged. Their work is simple. Their job is not to restore public order. It was to prolong the stationing of U.S. forces without restoring security. In the case of ISIS, it went into Syria and took oil fields in the east. That's why they made it like Manchuria where they can support themselves. The U.S. has created a system where they can make money on their own, regardless of their home country.

And one more thing, as you can see, why are there so many bases in Iraq? There are many bases to fight ISIS. You know it's a match point. ISIS was told, "Yes, just do it." and "Here is a base for defense." After that, the number of bases increased rapidly. That's why the United States used Al Qaeda and ISIS to expand its interests. This is what is called a war criminal's trick. So it's not just a weapon dealer. The job is to incite the war on purpose and get money from the home country.

But at the same time, the war that the U.S. is fighting these days is really tough when there are many tanks. In other words, there is a borderline between winning and losing. Tanks are heroes when they win. A losing battle is a victim of the government. Now, if Iran really did drop a bomb on the U.S., and a lot of American troops die, they're not heroes. Because this war will be the defeat of the U.S. Because they are not heroes but crime victims, they get angry and say, "They were killed by Trump, by the army."

If this is a winning battle, it turns into a story of winning the battle because of a hero. There is a boundary between hero and criminal. The U.S. has already learned its lesson from Vietnam. They didn't mention the Vietnam War's quagmire at first, but the people found out when it became really quagmire. For example, when veterans came back to the U.S. and found themselves jobless, they were denounced by citizens as "Why are you there?" Veterans of the Vietnam War were abused. That's what a losing battle is like. Veterans are treated as criminals. People said, "You made America worse." That's what it happened few years after the Iraq War.

And then, ISIS came out and spread to Syria. Hillary Clinton was the one who did this. I think they expanded their method to Syria first. From there, they spread to Libya. Then, they spread all over Africa. Then we spread it to Ukraine. That's why Hillary Clinton and the American warmongers who were linked to her deliberately broke the peace, made it dangerous on purpose, and spread the formula for making money. They are from the military and from private companies. That's why the Russians couldn't stand it, and Mr. Kissinger came out and couldn't stand it. Mr. Trump emerged and said "We have to turn everything over, turn it back on."

That's why Mr.Trump came to overturn everything as he promised. For example, there was a story about a U.S. military base in Iraq that was hit by a missile. But think about it. Iran has been developing ballistic missiles for 30 years. Why does the U.S. military have so many important bases so close to the border even though Iran has been developing missiles for 30 years?

The same is true in Japan. Even though North Korea possesses so many weapons, why are there so many US military and CIA bases in the Japanese archipelago? Don't you think something's wrong? They don't usually leave their base there. If the others shoot at them, they'll be hit right away. If they shoot, they'll hit it right away. What do you think is there? It's a promise not to shoot. They're not supposed to shoot, are they?

That's why the CIA was in charge of North Korea until recently. Kim Jong Un kicked it out. U.S. warmongers would have used North Korean devices like the Taepodong to boost the approval ratings of the Abe administration and take advantage of them. So, "Buy that weapon. Buy this weapon." It's all fake.

That's why there was someone on the Iranian side who was familiar with the U.S. That, as a result, was Commander Qasem Soleimani. Commander Soleimani is a hero and a star of the resistance movement. In the Middle East, he is a hero of resistance movement fighting against the U.S. and Israel. He is a great man and he is the commander of many Iraqi troops. He was a person who kept a great position. Well, if they can get along with that kind of person, they don't think Iran is going to shoot them. They don't think they're not going to be fired any missile, if they're connected.

That's why American warmongers were eating their own food by building up bases here and there, saying that ISIS was dangerous. They're doing it in Syria, too. But Russia is pressing on them more and more, and Russia and Mr. Trump are crushing them all. General Soleimani was killed at the end, but he wrote a suicide note a few hours ago. "God, please accept me." he wrote in his will. That's why I think he knew.

It would never have been possible to kill General Soleimani without Russian permission.
Well, in today's world situation, Russia has the strongest weapons. The U.S. military power is 3 of 5. No country can rely on the U.S. military to act since the U.S. military power is 3 of 5. That's impossible. There's no way they can beat Russia. That's why, in the end, it was Trump, not Clinton, who accepted the reality that "We can't beat Russia." That's why ISIS collapsed. ISIS was destroyed, the CIA in North Korea was kicked out, and the world became peaceful.

Russia gave permission and General Soleimani was killed, which caused a disaster. In short, Iran no longer has to hold back from the U.S. Iran no longer held back from the U.S., and they ended up saying, "All right, let's do it.". The green light was on and the GO sign was on. And on the night after General Soleimani was killed, you can see on Google Earth, the large site of the American Embassy in Baghdad, missiles and rockets are hitting it.

The Americans know what the death of General Soleimani means to the local people. After General Soleimani dies, it's not just a military attack, it's even dangerous to just walk on the street. Or, there is a risk of suicide attacks by Muslims in the U.S. There were probably more than 2 million people at General Soleimani's funeral. So many people gathered there, just like the number who attended the funeral of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. I made them angry. Military attacks are a small part of it, and it's dangerous for Americans to just walk on the street or walk out of the house. In particular, it's really dangerous to walk around wearing a military uniform.

So, on the first day, a rocket fell in front of the embassy in Baghdad. Until now, it was not so easy to fall into that kind of place. At the end of last year, insurgents and armed groups entered there and took over the site temporarily. They made a big fuss over the takeover, but then they withdrew. But then they fired missiles. The second day they continued to fire missiles. On Day 3, the U.S. Marine commander there sent a letter to the Iraqi government saying, "The U.S. military will withdraw.". NHK also reported it. You've all seen it, haven’t you? The letter was written in Arabic and in English. It's a letter from the commander of the U.S. Marine Corps in Iraq to the commander of the Iraqi army.

What it says is, "At the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister and the Iraqi Parliament, we will withdraw respecting the sovereignty of Iraq." The letter said, "But it takes a few weeks to get out, so helicopters will fly during this time to carry heavy things." It also describes about three helicopter models and the places that fly well. At the same time, it says, "This is done at night so as not to bother the Iraqi people. Let us be clear that this is by no means a withdrawal for a new buildup. In the fight against ISIS, we will come if you have any requests later. Good-bye."

They did this on the third night. Then this will get to Washington. The head of the US military in Washington denied it, saying, "We didn't approve of this." They said, "We're not going to withdraw like that." and the missiles fell that morning. According to the US, there were 15 rounds, with no American casualties, but Iranian state television reported 22 rounds, with 80 Americans killed and 200 injured. I don't know which is right.

Mr. Trump said, "All is Well." Well, English teachers say, "There is no such English at all". It's Mr. Trump's English. He said, "Everything's going well." In short, according to the official announcement, Iran has accepted it, so the first one didn't target American soldiers. "The first attack was not aimed at American soldiers" they said. On the other hand, there were two attacks. Iran divided into two groups and fired missiles. When the missile attack stopped before the third attack, the Iranian side said, "If the United States counterattacks the attacks of these two warring factions, we will use missiles to destroy all American troops in Iraq, as well as to shoot missiles at Dubai in the UAE and Haifa in Israel."

And then, I was wondering what would happen, and all of these things appeared on the Internet every moment. Even in Iran, there are a lot of Arabic articles. If you use Google Chrome, you can translate from Arabic to English in no time, so there's no language barrier at all. We can see what's going on right now in Washington, in Baghdad, in Beirut. The locals in Erbil immediately tweeted and posted a video explaining what was happening around the base: "Missiles are coming." "The missile fell." So, you can see in real time what's happening over there. It's a very convenient time now, because these are all free.

Iran said, "We then aim for Dubai and Haifa". The U.S. military used to fight back. If it's a fake fight, they'll do it right away. I was watching what they were going to do this time. Then, when Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked by a reporter, "What are you going to do?" she clearly said, "I'm against a war with Iran because the security of the U.S. military is not assured." I thought, "Yeah, it’s over. It's settled."

In short, there is no way to protect the U.S. military from Iranian missiles. That's why they can't fight. So it was right after. Mr. Trump was going to give a speech that night. He was scheduled to give a speech on the outbreak of war with Iran, but his speech was cancelled. Mr. Trump was going to make a speech after, but the recent situation has already been reported in Russia. Russia has been strong in Iraq before the United States stepped in.

For example, this is the website of Russian TV. It also makes website pages in Arabic. I'm not sure why, but since the old days, there have been many articles written in Arabic, but not in English. Do you know that Russian TV programs differ in every language? It has different news contents such as Russian, English, Japanese and Arabic. That's interesting. Especially, edgy stories about the Middle East are only on Arabic news. That kind of story is not reported in English news.

Then, the next day, I was wondering what would happen because the war was over, and then it came out. What Iran said was that when a reporter from TASS Russian News Agency (ITAR-TASS) asked the UN representative in Iran, "What are you going to do?" he said, "The revenge is over. It’s balanced".

And what makes up for it, as Iran has consistently said, is the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Middle East. What Iran has consistently said is not only that the U.S. will get out of Iraq, but that the U.S. will withdraw from all of the Middle East. This is the same meaning as in the Russo-Japanese War, when the Russian military was told to return all the way east from East Siberia. It's like Russian troops were dispatched from all over Siberia, including North Manchuria as well as South Manchuria.

So this time, Iran says it has accepted it because Mr. Trump made a promise. That's why Iran said, "We will stop retaliation." That's why Trump said, "We're leaving.". Otherwise, Iran will never withdraw. I think what Mr. Trump said was important because Iran would never withdraw retaliation for the assassination of a great hero and the Iranian government would not be able to do that easily. So, I wish the U.S. troop was leaving quickly, but so far, NATO and European troops in Iraq are leaving rapidly. The American troops seem to be preparing to withdraw. So, the ISIS mop-up operation is called off. As you know, withdrawal is the most difficult because it takes several weeks. There is a possibility that you will be shot when you withdraw. That's why withdrawal is an extremely dangerous work. Moreover, withdrawal has a big political influence.

That's why I think they are preparing to withdraw without saying that they are still there or they will withdraw. Of course, vehicles and airplanes have to go in, because they bring back equipment. And some people just don't agree with that. Looking at the situation, it's clear that there are people who say, "I'm not going home." and are not convinced. They say things like "We can still fight." or "Iran is not strong." or "We must impose sanctions on Iran again". If Mr. Trump goes too far, there will be a rebellion in the U.S. I think there's a limit to what he can do to the military.

And the shooting down of the Ukrainian Airlines which was reported earlier. According to the article, Iran shot him down, but someone else did. I think that Iran ostensibly did what it did, but it has obtained some evidences that someone else actually dropped it. This is the same as Malaysia Airlines flight 17. It's the same incident as Malaysia Airlines flight 17 which was shot down in Ukraine. At that time, Russia said, “We did it.” But a few years later, a Ukrainian officer confessed, "Actually, that was done by then Ukrainian President Plushenko and the British intelligence service." A documentary is also released.

Ukraine was on the warmongers side at that time. Mr. Trump turned it over. Now Ukraine is on the Trump side. That's why Iran gave the black box to the Ukrainian government this time. Ukraine is on the Trump side. They’re not on the warmonger side. Then I think we are getting to see who shot him down this time. Then I suppose I began to see who shot him down. Well, I don't know if it's British intelligence agency or Israeli. But it's not always clear whether it was shot down or not, so it's a flight that could have caused some kind of trouble. When I look at the orbit right after takeoff, I feel like something was wrong from the beginning. Well, I'm not sure, but at least the Iranian way of speaking is something that they've grasped.

Then, do you remember that time? There were many Dutch people on Malaysian Airlines flight 17. So Netherlands said, "Russia is insolent! What a shame!" This time, Canadians were on board. But Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau doesn't say that much. He said, "Iran is insolent," but he didn't say much other than that even though there were a lot Canadian victims. In short, they don't have tools to attack Iran. In that sense, intelligence or espionage come to nothing.

I already knew the story of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 from the beginning. In other words, I knew that "Oh, that's all." and they were planning to send a plane to Kuala Lumpur, but the plane they were trying to get into was shot down. I mean, it was shot down, or it was crashed. It was supposed to be Iran. The purpose was to make China and Iran angry and separate them, and to involve East Asia in the war. It was probably 2014. That's why, just before that, even the Abe administration shouted, "It is time to revise the Constitution. Get ready for war." That was supposed to start the war. That's why Japan was told to prepare for the war as soon as possible, and it must have been so impatient. That's why they failed. The incident of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 failed, and after that, the incident of flight 17 happened. That was also Malaysia Airlines, wasn't it? Prime Minister Mahathir half-jokingly said, "Well, Commander Soleimani was assassinated, I might be attacked by a helicopter someday."

That's why I have a feeling that something serious will happen. I think there will be a revolution in the U.S. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the situation and the future. Well, obviously, they haven't given up yet. Before the Russian Revolution, Emperor Nicholai II was very aggressive during the Russo-Japanese War. So there were militarists and diplomats, and the diplomats tried to govern by that diplomacy. On the other hand, the militarists rushed into the war. In this case of the U.S., Mr.Trump is against war. He knows the U.S. is going to lose. And those warmongers who drive the army into the war, run the media, as well. They also have media. So the Trump side stops, but it turns out to be a rebel. The rebels end up in the end, but then the people don't know such a difficult thing, so if there were a lot of casualties in the U.S. military, there would be a revolution, and then it would end. That kind of thing will happen, and I think the Reiwa era will become a very severe age.

（１）The Future Direction of American Warmongers 

・Assassination of Soleimani Reverses Middle East
・The U.S. Concedes to Iran's Powerful Missile
・Iran's Demand is for the U.S. to Leave the Middle East
・Pro-American Arab States and Israel's Future

Let's take a look at today's resume. The first "Where the American Warmongers Go" is just what we've been talking about. Well, America can't win anymore. So if a missile actually falls on top of a group of American soldiers, that's it. Also, regarding the withdrawal of the U.S. military from the whole Middle East, if they don't carry out this, they will end up losing. It means they lose and run away. But now Israel, a pro-American Arab country, is thrown out. Israel has always been concerned about Iran's nuclear weapons. They have been saying that they attack alone many times. Well, after the last revolution in the United States, after the revolution in the United States in which there were massive casualties of American troops, whether Israel has the courage to bomb Iran alone. I don't know whether they’re brave or not. Maybe. That's why we don't know until the end. But isn't Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain over? I think it's over. I think it's a world where nobody knows what to do after that.

（２）The Future Direction of East Asia

・North Korea Breaks Sanctions with Self-reliance
・Where American Warmongers in East Asia Go
・What Lies Ahead of Taiwan's Presidential Election and Hong Kong's Liberation Revolution（Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our time）
・Russia is the Linchpin of Security in the Middle East and East Asia

And the story of East Asia. Last December, Kim Jong Un held a long four-day general meeting. North Korea published the conclusion in writing. It is a good article, to be honest. The point is to fight sanctions by self-help rehabilitation. They can break the framework of the sanctions by their own efforts. The declaration was made at the end of last December, and it says that the more the United States procrastinates, the stronger North Korea becomes. In fact, the declaration was made at the end of last December, and the sanctions have been substantially eased since then. Especially, goods are coming in from China. In Japan, too, North Korean ships come to Okinawa and sail through it even though they should have been seized according to the UN sanction resolution. So, North Korea's intention is already supported in various places in response to the Kim Jong Un regime.

Kim Jong Un says he will do nuclear weapons. If you look at Iran this time, you will understand. They'll shoot you out of the blue. Besides that, there will be assassinations. Well, some people think it's dangerous if they don't have nuclear weapons. They say that they have the same technology as developed countries in the development of weapons including nuclear weapons. So, after all, what they are most advanced in is military technology, just like Japan before the war. Military technology is the most advanced.

But Kim Jong Un says the biggest problem is the economy. It’s about national defense, and he says he will do his best in politics, diplomacy, and national defense so that he would never lose to the U.S. But he is talking about rebuilding the country and he is talking about the economy. He says that the basis of rebuilding the country is the economy. One is to rebuild government institutions. The government function is not good at all. Also, the productivity and quality of the economy are not good at all. He says that the country can only rebuild by changing this somehow. That's something like Meiji Japan. It's really like the Japanese government of Meiji.

In the Meiji era, there were Battle of Mukden and Battle of Tsushima which Japan defeated Russia. Japan was especially overwhelming in the Battle of Tsushima. The world's evaluation of that victory is said to be the result of Japanese education. The world recognizes that the result of education of the whole of Japan including patriotism since the Meiji era is the biggest factor that brought Japan to victory in the Russo-Japanese War, especially the Battle of Tsushima. It is said that Japan won for the first time because we had moral education. On the other hand, the commanding officer says that Russia lost because it didn't have any. It's not equipment. In short, they don't want to do it, and they don't know what they're fighting for. And officers indulge in pleasure. Well, Russia wasn't really in a position to win. That's why North Korea and Iran are the same as Japan in the Meiji period. They really work together to defeat their enemies. So we shouldn't underestimate those countries. They're on fire, so we'll just have to wait. Like Japan today, we forget everything, so that's the way it is. After about 50 years, everyone forgets and enjoys themselves. So, we don't have to fight.

Even in today's Japan, there are no fragments of patriotism that we had back then. Now, even Japan is like Russia during the Russian Revolution. So, if you give money without firing bullets, it will soon melt away. That's why Mr. Trump tried to do it. Japan was like that after World War II. Japan gave money to the U.S. We gave relief supplies and money for trading. However, it melted quickly. Since the Meiji era, Japanese have been known to hate America and England, and have fought a battle of meat. Before the war, Japanese used to call themselves demons, Americans, and British. From the Meiji period to the prewar period, even the Japanese, who said they hated America and England, fought hand-to-hand battles, but after the war, they started with saying "Give me chocolate." Being a subject state of America must have become the biggest national interest. The key is that the U.S. gave the money. Mr. Trump turned them down by saying, "I'm not getting into that."

Iran, too. In short, if they want to ease sanctions, they say, "Give this to me. Give that to me." Easing sanctions means giving money. But they're not getting on because they are looking at Japan. Now that Japan has swallowed itself, Iran and North Korea are in good shape. They're not getting in. Well, they will keep going. So, in the meantime, the U.S. will fall. In that case, there must be a complete withdrawal somewhere in East Asia. According to the Military Times, the soldiers at the scene, especially in the Middle East are scared. They've been exposed to the power of Iranian missiles. It's like they're begging for something alive, and they're completely scared. In short, if you read such articles for a long time, you can understand the situation and direction.

The Japanese archipelago is not good at all. North Korea's missiles are also very powerful. Japan says that because the U.S. won't develop for them, Japan will start by developing its own technology to deal with North Korea's high-performance missiles. In short, the U.S. can't protect anything. It's settled. The U.S. military and CIA bases in Japanese territory can no longer be protected. That's why they say what to do and what to do, but they run away when there is a decisive thing. Just like the Soviet army at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian army at the time of the collapse of Tsarist Russia before it. They run away like that. From there, a new Japan will start.

Regarding China, as I said earlier, this trade agreement is a powerful drug by Mr. Trump for China, right? If China admits that, it means that the country will become a subject state. That's why China is in the same position as Iran and North Korea. What the U.S. is saying to China is that, just like Japan, if you give in, the money relationship will continue. Japan, for example, has come to accept the wishes of the U.S. Japanese Prime Minister Murayama said, "The government's biggest task is to realize the U.S. demand for Japan." Since the Murayama administration, the government has done followed everything the U.S. said. That's why the U.S. is telling China, "If you do it that way like in Japan, everything will be fine, there will be no war." It depends on whether China accepts it or not. I don't know where China will fall. China is also a country that sent a lot of money to the U.S. But the recession is also spreading in China. This could be a disaster.

The presidential election in Taiwan and the revolution in Hong Kong are fueling this trend. Today is the presidential election in Taiwan, isn't it? There is no doubt that President Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Now that Taiwan is rejecting the One Country, Two Systems policy, Xi Jinping will lose face completely. The revolution in Hong Kong is called Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our time, and that is the recovery of Hong Kong, so the only way to achieve this is independence from China. It's not officially an independent country, but if they go on like this, one country, two systems will end in 50 years, so it will end in 2047. In that case, their descendants will be incorporated into the Chinese Communist Party, so the only alternative is an independent revolution. Everyone's already concentrated with high spirits. So, this has already started.

Then, the light will shine inside China. What will China look like after this? I think the Communist Party is out of the question. For example, if Xi Jinping was killed, China would be in big trouble. For example, with the conclusion of the first phase trade agreement with the U.S., it will be exposed to the public as a "China gave up". In that case, there will be people who get angry with the Chinese government and the military. I think there are a few people in China who think, "The country betrayed its people. If you do that, you must cross the line." That's why the Chinese government's collapse will not stop. That's why we have to wait and see what happens to the Chinese Communist Party.

After all, Russia is the cornerstone of security in both the Middle East and East Asia. Well, in the world of power versus power, the strongest wins. If it's a match between strength and strength, it's about who is the strongest. In the world of power, those who only believe in power never go against the strongest. They only listen to the strongest. For them, the strongest one is important. So when they get together, they end up fighting and trying to figure out who's the best. On the other hand, people who really fight are weak. People who are really strong can understand without fighting. That’s why they have a long life. If you really fight, you'll be killed. If you're really strong, you can tell by looking before you fight. So right now, Russia is the strongest. No one can resist.

And Putin is smart enough not to make the mistakes of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union. Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union failed due to expansionism. That's why Russia came to Manchuria right before the Russo-Japanese War. They had expanded their military occupation area to the area around North Korea. In the end, they started a war, and in the end, it became a revolution, and they blew it all up. In the case of the Soviet Union, it is Afghanistan. We invaded Afghanistan, and it became a grave, and everything was blown away.

In the case of Iran, since General Soleimani died the other day, there is a possibility that they will no longer pursue expansionism. Well, they do if they are attacked. Unless they are attacked, they won't be expansionist any more. In short, in today's world, we are at a time when expansionism by war based on the exercise of sovereign rights is no longer possible. Expansion as a nation cannot be achieved by war or even economy. For example, Amazon will start paying taxes for last year in Japan. Amazon will pay taxes for the first time in Japan. In short, multinational companies have been expanding their economies until now. Companies with strong points and data were expanding in the economic world. But the world has come to stop this expansion. That's why we have come to an age where neither military nor economic expansion is possible.

（３）The Future Direction of the Bursting of the Bubble Economy

・The Bursting of the Bubble Economy Around the World
・Impact of the Bursting of the Economic Bubble on the Chinese Communist Party and the U.S. Presidential Election
・Industrial Depression Spreads to Lifestyle Depression and Political Instability in Various Countries
・Ultimately Lack the Capital to Cover the Losses of the Bursting of the Bubble

And the future is the age of democratic rights, “Minken”. In the age of “Minken”, not sovereign rights, “Kokken” in which people live as citizens, blockchains are said to exist as infrastructure to support them. I think it's finally coming. As for the future of the bursting of the bubble, as I said earlier, stock prices are now high only because the Fed is putting money in. There is nothing else. If you look at the economic statistics, they're all bad things. It's the same in Japan. The economy is really bad. There is a labor shortage during the recession. Many people say that they can't do business because they are short of manpower.

But in any case, cars are not sold at all. Because car sales are not well all over the world, the industry is starting to collapse. That's why the conventional export-oriented economy, based on the assumption that it will become a global economy, is no longer viable. The niche is good for now. Conversely, niche is better. It's not good to be on the political track and do it by volume. It's better to focus on the niche by saying, "There's something good here." That's why medium-sized companies and smaller companies will be stronger from now on. There are many opportunities for those companies and individuals. Because there are holes all over the place, and there are people who are in trouble all over the place.

How do you solve your problems? Now midsize or smaller companies can offer you a solution. They're small, so all you have to do is join hands on the side. Big companies break down. They're going to break down into smaller units. Because the economy is in an age of civil rights, monopolistic and oligopolistic capital will not be able to control it. Mid-size companies and smaller ones should work side by side and do various things together. For example, as you all know, there are quite a few agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries that use the Internet as a partnership between the agriculture and livestock industries and SEs. Now they're rolling it out to the blockchain, and they're doing more and more international supply chains. That's why primary industry and IT go well together. This is not done by one company, but by various companies and organizations. This is exactly what happens when people saying "I want to do it!" get together and form a consortium. It's already started.

It means that we can't think like a corporate drone/corporate slave anymore. From now on, it's democracy of thoughts. From now on, we will proceed with the democracy of the way of thinking by getting everyone's agreement. So, true horizontal leadership is important. Actually, the leadership simulation game that we are going to hold in our lecture session next month is the game that I made. I made it over 15 years ago and more than 1,000 people have experienced the game so far. This business game leads to people understand horizontal leadership in terms of economics. The content of this game is a little deep. In the age of democratic rights, since no one can control the country from above, people have to hold hands with each other. This is a different dynamic. It's not vertical but horizontal. It's important for us to think for ourselves, discuss and proceed. It's no longer just waiting for someone to say something or telling someone to do something.

But more than that, we need an immediate strategy. For example, if the dollar crashes and the U.S. goes home, all we can do is hold hands on sideways and work together to move forward. It is the same as the story of Meiji. It is the same as the story after the war. We have no choice but to gather all the people who know what they are doing. We are still in the early stages of defeat. It has not started including the U.S. What seems to be a revolution has started, but the president still exists. And since money is still in the financial market, the dollar still has a price. It starts all at once from the moment it finishes. You see, people who are being chased by the police have no connection with detectives or prosecutors until they are caught by the police. From the moment you are caught, your relationship with a lawyer starts. Just like that, if this moment doesn't come, a new relationship won't start. So it doesn't matter who says good or bad now. For now, you just need to know who is where. At the last moment, they move smoothly in a self-organizing manner. Well, that's the only way when the time comes. So, I think you should think that's the way it is, and just wait and see for now.

In fact, from a micro perspective, the collapse of the bubble has been progressing. For example, CLO, an investment product in which Japanese companies invested a lot, is being warned of the risk of price decline. In some countries, the decline of real estate prices has become quite severe. Even if there is no decisive battle with Iran, the bursting of the bubble will certainly cause considerable stress. Well, the Fed is doing its best to support it now（Fed Liquidity Injections／Jan 9th, 2020 Tyler Durden ZeroHedge）
, but the problem is when it can't. So, as I said, the Saxo Bank says, "Next is Elizabeth Warren." This is a full revolution, or a half revolution. It's democratic socialism. It's like when President Roosevelt came along. It means taking money from rich people with wealth tax and spreading it. Also, all U.S. military will withdraw from overseas. And if they're going to put that in order, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders will win. If they can't do that, it's a total collapse of the federal government. It's either of them.

However, the biggest problem is that the industrial depression spreads to the life depression and the politics becomes unstable in each country. It's the same in China. After all, it's the worst if you can't eat. The current situation is that all leverage is too high. There are too many debts everywhere. Household debts and corporate debts are too high. Especially national debts, corporate debts, and personal debts are huge in the world. This is why insolvency is growing. That's why China had a default of 2.5 trillion yen in domestic debt last year. Last year, China defaulted on 2.5 trillion yen in yuan debt alone. There was also a dollar default. That is a major trading company in Tianjin city. Last year in China, the US dollar default was quite large. China is no longer able to pay.

When that happens, the influence of politics will be considerable. It has a big influence on Japan. As I said earlier, 50 people were interviewed. I don't know much about it, but the “cherry blossoms” things must have fallen already. If those 50 people really received money, not only the Abe Cabinet but also the LDP would collapse. After the collapse of the Liberal Democratic Party, Yamamoto Taro is the only one left. Things change a lot, but if you ask me, even if someone else becomes prime minister, things don't change that much. Imagine you were prime minister and went to the Prime Minister's Office. You work with government officials, don't you? You can't make sashimi with an unsharpened knife. You can't cook in a pot with holes. You can't grill fish on a stove without fire. That's the biggest problem. So even if you have a chef, you can't do anything if you don't have a kitchen knife, a pot, or a stove. Well, it has a symbolic meaning, but it doesn't really matter. In short, there's nothing we can do in the official residence. The bureaucracy is broken. The Abe administration has dissolved everything.

Moreover, look at the politicians who appeared in this single-seat constituency system. No matter how many times we run in single-seat constituencies, we won't find a decent politician. How many times have you done it since Heisei? No matter how many times we try, we can't find a decent politician. That's why the people who are working hard now are the politicians from the multiple-seat constituency system. Second-generation, third-generation, and fourth-generation are probably just tired of the lingering influence of the multiple-seat constituency system. Mr. Nikai is also from the old multiple-seat constituency system. Mr. Abe is also a hereditary member. I don't think there is a single person who has entered the single-seat constituency system and is watching the big picture of this country. Mr. Edano is just preparing to hold the castle. So, there is nothing to do whether you go to the Diet or the Prime Minister's Office.
As I said before, there are a knife that cannot be cut, a pot with a hole, and a stove without fire. That's why we have no choice but to join hands on the side and cooperate. There are many tools for that.

So, the problem is that there is no capital to cover the loss of the bubble burst. This means that if the dollar finally crashes, Japan should sell all the dollars and buy gold at the end. Chinese people will throw gold, so they can buy gold. This time, as gold went up, so did bitcoin. Speculative currencies now include not only the yen and the Swiss franc, but also gold and bitcoin. Bitcoin has grown. It is changing times that currency without an issuer, which is not done by a specific person, becomes one of speculative currencies. So, through that kind of talk, you get through the money thing.

However, even if a major earthquake occurs in Japan, in the case of Japan, since it is a creditor country, it will sell its assets overseas and return them to Japan. So, even if an unfortunate event occurs, the yen will be strong this time. Because the yen is not weak. Creditor countries sell their assets overseas and bring them back home when a domestic crisis occurs. That's why the yen is so strong. The yen became stronger after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Japan and the Swiss franc are both strong. The moment the United States got into trouble, the strong yen came. It's all like that recently. It's been like that for the past 10 years or so. So, to put it the other way around, while the strong yen is coming, we'll have hyperdeflation, but not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation happens in countries where currencies are cheaper. So what about the United States or Britain? We don't have a clue yet. Europe may collapse, as the Saxo Bank says. Well, it's whether they'll make up for the last loss. Japanese banks are also in serious financial difficulties.

But I think the most dangerous thing is government bond capital. After all, when something happens in America, I think government bonds will be sold at a sacrifice. If all 50 members of the Liberal Democratic Party were arrested, I think the government bond market would plunge. That's the collapse of the Liberal Democratic Party. I think Japanese government bonds will plummet. In other words, despite the recession, I think only government bond finance will jump. I think the risk of long-term interest rates is big. In short, what will happen if we issue so much debt? The biggest difference between prewar and now is whether a country is a debtor country or a creditor country.
Japan used to be a debtor country and now a creditor country. This time, there is money in the country. Prices don't go up because of deflation, but they should come out somewhere. I think the government bond market will plunge. I think the price of government bonds will plummet. I think interest rates on government bonds will soar, because no one can lend money to the government.

In that case, the government, local governments and large corporations will have no buyers and will be unable to raise funds. So, on the other hand, unlike before, the big organization is hard this time. As the bond market collapses and interest rates rise, those issuing corporate bonds, municipal bonds and government bonds at large places suddenly become unable to raise funds. On the other hand, companies that borrow money from banks are linked to the long-term prime rate, but I don't think Japanese banks are powerful enough to raise the long-term prime rate. Now banks are in survival mode. If the dollar crashes, everyone will go bankrupt. If that's the case, I think they can live only with the money they can get by protecting the borrowers. There is no way to survive other than getting a small amount of interests such as housing loans or corporate loans.

I don't think it's easy to raise interest rates. Because there is a power relationship between creditors and debtors. This time, I think the banks will be much weaker. I don't think they can raise the interest rate as creditors. That's why it's time for people in mid-sized companies. I think those who borrow money directly from banks are safer. Bonds are more dangerous and it will come at once when the interest rate goes up. As for what to do about the shortage in the end, there is no prospect at all. It's possible to call it even. It means to pretend that everything was gone. It means to pretend that we have no assets or liabilities. In other words, if you're playing a computer game, you might hit reset. By pressing the reset button, it pretends nothing happened. Is there any other way? It's what we call fusion. Are there any ways other than how to sell, how to buy and how to blend?

（４）The Future Direction of Japan 

・Abe Cabinet Doesn't Want to Disband No matter How Worn It Is
・Impact of Exclusion of U.S. Warmongers on Japan's Political Economy
・The Near Future of Japan; the country that has never done any innovation yet
・Disintegration, Dissolution, Then Revitalization, Regime

So, where is Japan going? In any case, it seems that the current Abe Cabinet does not want to be dissolved no matter how tattered it is. Now that Mr. Nakasone is dead, there will be no constitutional revision. The discussion of the Chinese state guest will end with this IR issue. So there's nothing else. But, well, if the Abe cabinet is dissolved, people around him will be in trouble, so they don't want to dissolve it. The Abe family wants Katsunobu Kato to do the next. It seems that they have a relationship with each other, but it's not easy. Mr. Kishida listens to what Mr. Abe says. He's pathetic. That's what Mr. Ishiba is up against. So if Mr. Ishiba takes power, he will be like Takeo Miki. If Mr. Abe turns over and Mr. Ishiba becomes the next top, he will become Takeo Miki. The second Tokyo Tribunal will be held.

If the U.S. were to fall flat on its face, it would. If Iran really did fire missiles into the United States, and hundreds or even thousands died, and the entire U.S. pulled out, that would happen very soon. They're collapsing. So, Mr. Ishiba may do a great job even though I don't know if he has guts or not. That's why the elimination of warmongers in the U.S. has a big influence. I think South Korea is also in tatters.

The most important thing is the near future of Japan, where innovation has never come to fruition. How many people do you think lived in the Heisei era, especially in the last 20 years, thinking that it was right not to do anything new? The way to do business without doing anything new is to enter a market created by people at a low price. When it's business to enter a market made by people at a low price, you don't do anything new, and if you do it once in a while, everyone loses money, so there's nothing. Nothing.

That's why Akio Toyoda said that Toyota is going to do a smart city, but that plan is three years behind. If he was talking about such an idle subject now, it wouldn't be Toyota. In short, we can't see the future of cars. Flying cars are also being tested around the world. Japanese strange helicopters and things like that look very unstable. Even Airbus makes better stuff. By looking at the world, autonomous driving, electric cars, and AI are pretty cool, aren't they? Tesla is doing pretty well. Yesterday, someone in the car industry said, "If Tesla and Sony work together, they could make a great car." They haven’t done anything in Japan at all.

And they don't use microbes at all. They say they will sprinkle water in Fukushima again. They're not innovating at all, so it's a mess. It's the same as the last days of the Tokugawa shogunate, and it's the same as just before the end of the war in 1945. They don't do anything. It's all over again. That's why Japan has to replace all leaders. I don't know if it's a replacement, but I think they run away. They're in a panic when something happens and they say, "I can't do it anymore. I'm scared." Even Mr. Ghosn ran away from Japan, didn't he? I think everyone will run away. And then, since it comes to the point that "And nobody left." I think it will be shifted to democratic rights, “Minken”.

So, this revolution frenzy, I think the so-called liberal politics are not liberal by sovereign rights. I think it is liberal because of democratic rights. Isn't democratic socialism based on democratic rights rather than socialism, such as the way of the Soviet Union and the Chinese Communist Party based on sovereign rights? This is an unprecedented situation. This is an unprecedented world, and it is also the beginning of a true symbiotic society, and if you make a mistake, it will cause a great confusion. It's the time to test the people's ability. Because there is no other saucer. So, well, the world is in war mode this year, so it moves in a flash when it does. I feel like it's time to be really careful and pay attention to what's going on around the world.

So, first of all, it's a horizontal network. Also, in an age like this, it is important to always think about "what we should do, what our role is," and have some policies and directions. Also, it is important to move flexibly. If you don't move, you'll be cornered. If you don't move, you will be cornered, so you need to be ready and ready to move anytime.

Q&A

Question：What should be done to deal specifically with recent problems such as Chinese buying companies and land in Japan, and increasing immigration?

If the Chinese Communist Party loses grip and the Japanese government loses grip, there will be no way to deal with it. On the other hand, if they run out of money, they'll all sell it and go home. China, everywhere, America will do that. So if they had money, they would buy more and get more returns on my investments, but if they caught fire and threw all their money away, and still couldn't get cash, they would sell gold and everything. China is not a country with a large accumulation of companies. That's why they say they bought it now, but I think they will sell it all when they run out of cash.

Therefore, from now on the world including Japan, selling by Chinese people will be hard. I think when people start selling and people start selling just to cash in a penny, stock prices and real estate prices keep going down. I think it's time to worry about something like that. From the moment the dollar plummeted, I think it will really take off in the next three years or so.

Question：Who will make the American revolution and what kind of revolution will it be?

It's a riot. I think that people who think they were betrayed by the state or by the American government or the military will start rioting. These are riots of people who say, "How dare you kill my dear son on the battlefield?" "How dare you kill my beloved husband in the war?" "How dare you hide all the truth." I think it's going to be a big deal. I think it's a riot against the US government and the US military. Nowadays, there are no revolutionaries like Vladimir Lenin like the former Russian Revolution. So, well, it's a riot. If it's not a riot, you don't have to go that far to get a mold, then Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren will be there. In other words, it will be the restoration while moving the constitution. If the constitution is moved superficially, it will be a form of restoration. When it comes to "There's no constitution anymore, shoot it down," it's a real revolution. It's a civil war.

But there used to be a civil war and the American Civil War. It was just before the Meiji Restoration. The Civil War and the American Civil War occurred between the Sakuradamongai Incident and the Meiji Restoration. The U.S. was in a terrible state at that time. That's why the U.S. had a civil war before. We don't know what will happen until they do. I got a letter from Dr. Bettin last fall. He's an Army Special Forces member and the youngest colonel in US military history at the time of the Vietnam War. I thought Dr. Bettin was a fan of Mr. Trump, but he’s not. "Is the U.S. all right now?" the letter said. He's not only criticizing Mr. Trump. I received a letter of mourning saying, "If I look at the U.S. now, it's very different from what the founding father of the country has said about it." So, I understand the atmosphere and feeling. It's everywhere. Well, it's time for a showdown this year.

Question：Will it be revolutionary if Elizabeth Warren comes to power?

I thought the next term would be Mr. Trump, and Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be for the following next presidential election. But there is a possibility that it will move up. The Danish Saxo Bank I mentioned earlier claims Elizabeth Warren will win by 2 million votes. Certainly, there is a possibility to move up. When Elizabeth Warren becomes president, she will not completely deny capitalism, not completely deny the free economy, but she will suppress the tyranny of the rich. That's why the business community should be serious. She means, "If you're rich, give us your money.". It's like the postwar reforms the Occupation Forces carried out in Japan, like the dissolution of the zaibatsu. In the postwar reform, they also collected an extraordinary property tax. That's the way it is this time. If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders does it, it's a revolution in a way. They use the constitution, but it's like a revolution.

Question：Most of the banking and financial businesses are screening operations, but if AI were to conduct transaction screening, banks would no longer need those who had been screening transactions, and banks would have to close their stores or settle transactions on the Internet. Banks are laying off tens of thousands of employees in a critical situation. What do you think will happen in the future in the era of major white-collar restructuring that has already begun?

That's a good question. First of all, banks are all in the red in their main business of keeping deposits and lending them. The time has come when all businesses are in the red and they can't eat in the main business of banking. They were selling investments and so on, but they will be out this time. That's why there is no way for banks. On the other hand, other industries have also entered the market, and as you said, the trend toward non-branch offices and smartphone payments is spreading, so the future of banks is not very clear. When that happens, a lot of bank employees will be fired. In fact, I think there were about 70,000 layoffs in Europe last year. That's a lot. Europe was crazy last year. But this is not limited to banks. The time has come when the whole tertiary sector, service sector doesn't need people anymore. First of all, it's only a matter of time before machines replace the work that used to be done by non-regular workers. It's only a matter of time before machines replace the work that used to be done without thinking. Now, people are not needed in the primary and secondary sectors, so they have entered the tertiary sector to support employment, but people are no longer needed in this tertiary sector, too.

Then, the age of de-industrialization will finally come. There will come a time when people who work in industry or company are not members of society. It's okay to work for a company, but there will be roads that don't. That is the social contribution. There are many ways to make a living by contributing to society, such as basic income. I feel that way when I see young people today. And while the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors of today are in the real world, many people may go to work in virtual space. As you can see in Bitcoin, there are digital assets that cannot be copied one by one in the virtual world. Don't you think digital can be copied? There are a lot of digital assets that can't be copied now. As more and more of this single digital asset emerges into the world, virtual space will change all at once.

The saying "After all, it's a copy." is gone. The time has come when you can create a unique, uncopyable asset in a virtual space, and it's already in circulation. That's why Japanese people need to think more about that and innovation and technology will support employment. But after all, virtual space is virtual space. Therefore, I think that real spaces in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors go back to the origin. That's where the passion comes in: what tools are used, what kind of hospitality is given, the most basic part of human ability and the extremely analog part of human ability improve physical strength and health. When that happens, even if they get a job, the people who get paid to make money are not members of society. People who work just to get paid are not members of society at all. The same goes for companies. Do they do it for the sake of life or society? So it doesn't matter whether you belong to a company or not for the sake of society when you say you are a member of society. Young people feel that way. That's why it's important to organize things in such a way that everyone can eat.

There is a key point for everything. When the focus is right on the key point and it comes to "After all, expansionism and expansionism will not work." then the only remaining energy is to dig out the individual's ability, the land's ability, the history's ability, that is, the energy that is sleeping now. It's a time when you can't get something from somewhere else. The only way to secure energy is to develop the abilities of individuals, to find the power of land, to use microbes and anything else, to activate catalysts more and more, and to create something from nothing. So, the way of thinking about things will be different from now on. I think the system of society will change considerably because it creates instead of depriving.

Therefore, for the time being, we need to prepare for both war and peace. If you're lucky, you might be able to stay at the office, but if you're unlucky, you have to leave the office. When that happens, how can you eat? In the beginning, you have to rely on fate and try many things. In other words, you have no choice but to turn on your genes that have been sleeping. As the saying goes, "Better be the tail of lions than the head of foxes," you could sit down and get paid, all of which had your genes turned off. That's why you have sat quietly so far. But if you can't do that, you have to turn on your sleeping genes and make money yourself. You have to make money all by yourself while meeting various people, doing various things, and finding various ways.

You have to start a series of dramas. There are a lot of dramas and there is a future, so you can't decide by one shot. If you ask me, the moment when we have to turn on this gene is approaching. That moment is approaching everyone, so now is the best chance to learn what to do for the future. Now you can learn as much as you want. When it starts, everyone will be busy. Looking at this situation, I think something may happen this year. I don't think it's going to be all that bad with the first shot, but it looks like something is going to happen this year.

Question：Looking at the current war in which the U.S. is involved, Trump's role seems to be over. Is there any possibility of a change in the presidential election this fall?

There is a possibility that what will happen in the election in 5 years will be moved up to this fall. In short, it's likely to be this fall as the era of Elisabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, and either of them is going to replace Mr. Trump. In short, democratic socialism may come at once. They can't go back to the days of warmongers. That’s why it doesn't make sense to talk about Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Biden, or Mr. Bloomberg. They're getting out of the question now.

Question：I think Japan will change more and more as American warmongers are removed. What do you think?

It's a big change. So it's going to be like North Korea when the Soviets went home. In the worst case, it would be like East Germany saying, "Oh, they're all gone." Well, Japan has a long history, so we have to think about the future. In short, we have no choice but to do it on our own. We have no choice but to act with our guts and decide the way by holding hands on the side. It is the beginning of such an era.

Question：After Russia has the world's strongest military power, what will happen to its diplomatic and economic policies?

As you can see now, it's hard to resist Russia. For example, if a country that buys gas from Russia says, "Russia is insolent." the gas cocks stop working right away. Russia has always been difficult to get along with. Even though Russia is strong as a military, I don't think it can manage the world economy. Russia is also suffering economically. In terms of military affairs, Russia will come out to quell the violence, but I think that the management of the world economy and politics will be something else.

Question：Isn't there a situation for some country to take the initiative of the whole for a while?

There is no such thing as hegemony. I think there is no super power anymore.

Question：I have been hearing for 10 years that the U.S. will withdraw its troops from Okinawa in 2022 and complete its withdrawal from Okinawa in 2026. If that is predicted, I think Japan will have to completely change all of its current defense and countermeasures. I think the dispute in Henoko is like a farce. What do you think?

I couldn't agree more. I heard that they will withdraw all in 2027. I think it's moving toward that. You're right. It's a farce about the controversy in Henoko, and it's out of the question, even though they're doing it. So, what do you think about national defense? After all, you can't do it in your own country. Military needs balance. In that case, Russia is overwhelming. That's why we have to talk to Russia and everyone as soon as possible. Japan doesn't do anything, does it? Therefore, as I wrote in my resume today, I think it's "Disintegration, Dissolution and Revitalization". I think it will be like the Edo Shogunate after the opening of the country. So, it's not that easy for us. To be honest, I think it's hard.

Question：The social infrastructure has been severely damaged, and the local construction industry and local finances have also become severe. Will this situation become more severe in the future?

So far, the aging of the infrastructure has not stopped, but is progressing steadily. Every year, there are places where people say, "It is difficult to pass there." and more and more places where people say, "That place is dangerous." If we don't have money to fix it, there will be no further development at all. At the same time, there are already places where water comes from a flood, where a landslide is dangerous, and where a tsunami is dangerous. Therefore, in this case, we have to start from where we live and rebuild all the infrastructure with new technology. In Japan, the word modernization has appeared since the Showa 30s after the war. It is said that the toilet was changed from a pit toilet to a flush toilet, and highways and express trains were built. We've changed everything in the name of modernization, but we need to bring a new way of thinking about infrastructure to replace that and reinvent everything.

In short, you have to think about where to invest to have a future. As you said, there's no point in putting mud and stones into the soft ground of Henoko for 30 years. This is where consensus needs to be formed. Unfortunately, the decline won't stop until we do that series of hard work. I'm afraid we have to hurry.

For Your Information

Just now, there was a news that one person died in Wuhan. The coronavirus, a new type of pneumonia, started in Wuhan. That is a coronavirus, so there is no cure or medicine. It's similar to MARS and SARS, and the Chinese government announced one death. That is also dangerous, if by any chance it expands greatly, there's no reason to talk about the Olympics. Therefore, you never know what will happen. That's why we have to think about it this year. Everyone, let's move while running without stopping. It's important to prepare for either war or peace. It’s always important to keep in mind the quote “If you want peace, prepare for war.” Let's think about various things by setting up a net in various places because we may have both peace and war. That will surely bear fruit later. You won't lose anything, so let's do our best.