日米外交アカデミー lecture

Day1

Pro.Wiegand

states involve taiwan
not nation
boundaries 
non-intervention in the domestic affairs of another nation
very large territory or small
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within the state, government is dission maker
government collect people's idea and command
but international is anarchy
no police, no military
no way to stop other government action
international law do reccomendation only
but north korea listen to the reccomendation
everyone want safety, survival
small country has no choise
Russian old action, like manchuria
north korea have more weapon, japan must have more weapon, budget
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will power, saying "no MineCraft" influence her son to clean his room( or not to do)
many vietnam people say "we will not stop war", influence
3 million
this is will power
not military power
Toyota Honda, japanese restaurant, Sonny's Play Station are soft power
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if you have no money, not edu not policy not social welfare no national military
PLA, china military is big because of the number of people
German military is weak because of people
1 hundred russian militarian
japan's oil come by ship from other country
US cut oil the former war
artificial intelligent is also industrial capacity
29 american base in japan
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if you have edu, can think strategy or think 
credibility of commitment
Cambodia attack, people dont believe
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2040, 2050
china will be number 1?
 china grow very fast
4 europe
big navy, colony, UK is the number 1 in 19c
Portugal 200 tears ago
Japan is 3 because of US benefit
India is num1 of people
but atribute to edu, sci, e.t.c.
Russia have low economics, but big militarian
security council in UN, WW2 winer only
Tennessee near nuclear laboratory
japan and china, Germany and France
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middle
mexico, Brazil
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respect and jealous
hegemony is bad for other country, cant say that its not right
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「勢力均衡」
china and japan's military power up up up…
cold war, nuclear power more more more…
1949~
to balance
japan no nuclear but US alliance, balance against north korea
US has more friends than china
beneficial
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SIPRI 
satellite
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china's goal is pushing the us power
australia japan southKorea
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Pro. Doi

Detternce
Armed Conflict
Uppsala Conflict Data Program
incompatibility
defender/status puo power : satisfied with the present situation
challenger/revisionist power : unsatistied with 
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Crisis Bargaining
stylized model, simpified
Challenger:
Not demand, Status quo
Demand, Defender:
 Concede, Revision
 Resist, Conflict
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Resolve
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Satisfaction
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Success of Deterrence
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Infromation, Misperception and Credibility
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Credibility and Signaling
credibility of threat: the degree to which challenger believes defender's threat is true
cheap talk
costly signal
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Functions and Effect Aliance

What is Alliance?
Allance Treaty Obligations and Provisions
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Extended Detterence
2 mechanism
capacity aggregation
military coodination
alliange decrease cost
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中立もpercentage上がる
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Other Multilateral Security Architectures
coalition of willing (alliance is not necessary for joint defense, why do states sometimes form an alliance?)
collective security, UNSC economic and military sanctions, "veto"
conflict building,  OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
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Fear of Abandonment
ChallengerはDefenderのAllyのresultも要素する必要がある, more complicated
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Credibility of Extended Deterrence
allyはcheap、節約
1.sunk cost : much time and money in negotiating the terms of alliance treaty, managing an alliance, troop in defender's territory(在日米軍)
2.tyining hands : ally my lose reputation(reputational/audience cost) Constraining Selection
3.trip wire : 在日米軍がいることでmay suffer damage from attacks
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Burden Sharing
ideal burden sharing my not
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Two types of security dilemmaダイレンマ
secrutiy gets worse than what it is initially
fear of entrampment, my not help
alliance is cheap wey to security, but
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Overview of US-Japan Alliance

Why US-Japan Alliance Today?
power shift between US and China
composite index
Japan faces with stagnated economy and aging society
article 5 say that US army defende Japan
article 6 say that tha same in Far Asia , but use 在日米軍 for security in far east, taiwan, korea…
ヒトとモノとの協力
重要影響事態法 in 2015
grey zone situation, 領海問題、cyberspace
Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM)

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/anpo/alliguideline/pdf/ACMandBPM.pdf

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Take-home messages
Deterrence is crucial seurity policy in japan
Alliance supposedly enhances the ability of deterrence
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Do alliances deter aggression?

In wiegan lecture, china say a lie that large military power than rial power
considering the dillenma, china fake because of cheap cost to military

フィリピンは米軍基地がない代わりに戦争で使える締結、サンクコストを低くできるよね
koreaはprime minister change and security policy change drasticaly
japan don't change because of NDP government

connective security is complite but necessary

Prof.Kohama

China action affetcs japan's dicision maker
safer, worse, security dilemma
strategic thinking is that you decide  your best chose
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two element
Actors and Environment

Actors
States(regions) … Diplomats, Leaders
IOs/IGOs
NGOs
Firms[huge company]

Japan
best outcome is japan wins
status quo
china wins
wost war

China
china wins
status quo
japan wins
war
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zero-sum relationship

なぜ戦争が起こるのか、rankingを見誤るから？
you can negosiate
everyone can save resource, human, money, …

戦争後に得られる利益を考えたらwarのほうがいい？
勝つ確率が高ければ？
→戦争拡大
「領土問題は存在しない」がbest choiseになる
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Coercion 強制外交
2 types
compellece強要 deterrence抑止(changeさせない、keep)
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IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
1st crisis in 1993 NPT核不拡散体制から脱退すると宣言
2nd crisis in 2002 Six-Party Talks NK SK Jp US Ch Ru
what purpose?
us policyはcompellenceでもdetterenceでもある
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who wins in bargaining
capability : the (known) ability [sorry, the word "known" should be attached to the word of credibility?]
credibility : 
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you should compare available option they have, not power

stand firm(resist) or acquiesce(妥協)

US「war is worst」

NK「warはないだろうから、economic sanction or abandon the programの２択。なら前者」

optionを考えるならgame tree is good tool

USがuse of forceすると、NKに思わせれば、abandon the programに行く

reducing the cost of war
1.ballistic missile defense system
2.increasethe cost of false threat

John F. Kennedy's public statement : aircraft, Cuba, "all possible action against Soviet Union"

military deployment, cost

3.reduce NK's cost of backing down
メンツ
some arrangement, to look afford 

4.increase NK's cost of standing firm
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Successful coercion
credibility problem

Thomas Schelling, economist get Novel price
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Reassurance 安心供与
何度も尖閣問題のことを言う日本
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rationality and inrationality
if you act dangerous, up

terroirst have no choise
how?
not actors in IR
boundaryがない

Pro.Vllasi

old warfare is binary, tank, airplane
hybrid warfare is not territory , everything you have, use 
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how many people were killed is impact
v.s.
face mask are made from China, drag(medication)

no special force
European countries use Russian natural gas
cyberattack ransomware ban the company's infrastructure
militaly to military? to civilian infrastructure
Taiwan political party
whole society
every individual
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desperate japan from us, we are asian, we are european, this strategy increase the probability of china winning
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disorientation, this cup involve sake! , Hokkaido Uni. Prof., oh no
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disinformation
trump's fake news
Ohio
kill cut and eat people
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nuclear power plant , waste water, campaing
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no car
1990 smaller than Brazil
now GDP num.2
university of vienna, quantum teleportation, inscryption secure
sattelite station 
facebook collect your data, favorite, and amazon show your favorite item
fears!
spy Iwatani 
200 dollars
coersion share info. with gun
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copy goods and tech.
Washington post, ジェフベソス
international students a lot 
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Economic warfare
iPhone California?
made in china, but designed in california, so they say its made in california
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scheme to influence
australian
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china's target is jp and uk
because of ally of us
security architecture 
a lot easier to attack than attack washington
tech. team

haixun imigrant

facebook earn billion dollars, so you can stop it easily