[決算][Micron Technology] 2023年度 詳細(2)

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Press Release の決算数字の確認はこちらの記事に。

この記事の概要

この記事では、FY23 Financial Results Presentation の前半（CEO発表）を確認します。
この記事で確認するCEO 発表の部分は、Presentation というよりも Press Release には載っていない、決算数字の背景（経済状況や業界の動向、Micron Technologyの開発進捗状況など）や次期の見通しなどの詳細を記載した文書です。
かなり分量があるので、3つの記事に分けており、この記事は2番目です。1番目の記事はこちら。

End Market Highlights

Data Center

• Traditional server demand remains lackluster while demand for AI servers has been strong. Total server unit shipments are expected to decline in calendar 2023 — the first year-over-year decline since 2016. We expect total server unit growth will resume in calendar 2024 to help fulfill everincreasing workload demand.

• Compared to traditional servers, AI training servers contain significantly higher DRAM and NAND content with greater technology complexity, robust product value and higher profitability.

• Micron has a strengthening portfolio that includes HBM3E, DDR5, and associated high-capacity modules, LPDRAM, and data center SSDs. This portfolio of industry-leading products positions us well to capture the opportunities presented by data-centric computing architectures and AI.

• HBM: The introduction of our HBM3E product offering has been met with strong customer interest and enthusiasm. We developed this industryleading design using our 1-beta technology, advanced TSV, and other innovations that enable a differentiated packaging solution. We expect to begin the production ramp of HBM3E in early calendar 2024, and to achieve meaningful revenues in fiscal 2024.

• DDR5: We expect Micron D5 volume to cross over D4 in early calendar 2024, ahead of the industry. We expanded our high-capacity D5 DRAM module portfolio with a monolithic die-based 128GB module and have started shipping samples to customers to help support their AI application needs. We expect revenue from this product in Q2 of calendar 2024.

• CXL: Last month, we announced the introduction of 128GB and 256GB CXL 2.0 memory expansion modules. By leveraging a unique dual-channel memory architecture, we are able to deliver higher module capacity and increased bandwidth. We have shipped samples to several customers and key partners.

• Data center SSDs: Micron’s entire portfolio utilizes 176-layer or 232-layer NAND in production, a testament to our product and technology leadership. We saw strong demand for our data center NVMe SSDs across our AI-focused, industry-leading 30TB product, as well as our mainstream products. Micron ended the second calendar quarter with record high revenue share in data center SSDs, based on independent industry assessments. We expect to build on this momentum in fiscal 2024.

この記事でも引用した個所全部を訳すのではなく、私が注目した個所だけ選んでみていきます。

• AI向けのサーバ需要は強いものの従来型サーバは弱く、2023年の間はサーバ全体の出荷は減少する見込み（2016年から続いてきた成長トレンドはいったん途切れる）。2024年はAI向けが牽引して再び成長トレンドに戻る見込み。

• Micron Technology にはその成長に乗れる高性能の強い製品群がある。HBM3E、DDR5、LPDRAM、データセンター向けSSD。

• HBM3Eは2024年初めに量産を開始予定。2024年度に大きく売上げる期待は大きい。

• DDR5規格の Micron D5の（たぶん出荷）量が前世代の Micron D4 を上回り始めるのが2024年初め頃の見込み。

• AIアプリケーション向けに高性能DDR5規格の高性能製品（大きなダイ1個で構成、128GB）を既にサンプル出荷しているが、これが正規製品になって売上に貢献し始めるのが2024年4～6月期。

• CLX 2.0 対応のメモリ拡張モジュールのサンプル出荷を開始した。

• データセンター向けSSDで現在高シェア。来年も高シェアを維持する見込み。

PC

• PC: Continue to forecast calendar 2023 PC unit volume to decline by a low double-digit percentage year over year and then grow by low to mid single digit percentage in calendar 2024. AI-enabled PCs will drive content growth and an improved refresh cycle over the next two years.

• In FQ4, we saw strong sequential bit shipment growth at PC OEM’s driven by demand for LPDRAM in thin client notebooks. We expect to begin revenue shipments of our industry leading 1-beta-based client D5 in FQ1 to PC OEMs.

• Our 232-layer NVMe client SSD is now qualified at large OEMs and shipping in volume production.

• Our SSD QLC bit shipment mix reached a new record for the second consecutive quarter, with growth in both client and consumer markets. We continue to expand our footprint in the high-end consumer SSD space with the launch of three new products that extends our reach into professional content creators and enthusiast PC gamers.

• PC向けは2023年は減少しているが、24年～25年はAIを動作させる高性能PC向けの需要で上向く見込み。

• 23年度4Qは薄型ノートPC向けのLPDRAMの出荷が堅調だった。次の1Qはプロセスノード1-βのD5の出荷が増える見込み。

• 232層NVMe型SSDはOEM先で概ね検証に合格したので、量産に入る。

• QLC NAND型SSDも順調に出荷数量増加してきている。

Mobile and intelligent edge

• Mobile: Expect calendar 2023 smartphone unit volume to be down by a mid-single digit percentage year over year and then grow by mid-single digit percentage in calendar 2024. Elasticity, along with a mix shift towards premium phones with greater capacity is contributing to memory content growth. ~1/3 of smartphones sold today have at least 8GB of DRAM and 256GB of NAND, up more than 7% points versus smartphone units a year ago.

• Automotive: Fiscal 2023 marked another record revenue year for our automotive business. Micron continues to lead in automotive market share and quality. Long term, we expect memory and storage content per vehicle to increase in both ADAS and in-cabin applications. In addition, fastgrowing EVs typically contain higher memory and storage content. Our automotive design win trajectory remains strong.

• Industrial: Market showed signs of recovery in fiscal Q4. Inventory levels for memory and storage are stabilizing at distribution partners and at the majority of our customers. We expect the volume recovery that we observed in the second half of fiscal 2023 to continue into 2024. We see strong growth prospects in this market over time, as industrial customers continue to adopt and implement IoT, AI and machine learning solutions.

• モバイル（スマートフォン）向けは2023年は減少、2024年は増加に転じる見込み。

• 自動車向けは過去最高売上を記録した。自動車1台当たりに搭載されるメモリやストレージは、ADAS（先進運転支援システム）や車内アプリケーション向けの増加もあって今後も増加する見込み。

• 産業向けは2023年度第4四半期（6～8月）時点で既に回復の兆しあり。23年後半から2024年にかけて回復が継続する見込み。中長期的には、IoTデバイス、AI、機械学習向けに強い成長を見込んでいる。

Keywords

CLX

Compute Express Link。
CPUとデバイス（メモリなど）を高速に接続するための規格。
データセンターで使用されるような高性能コンピュータ向けに設計された。

ADAS

Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems。先進運転支援システム。

Design Win

https://note.com/inspired_by_3m/n/neb537cbda0e8#b486b309-5995-4a48-aedd-c9703d6b18c6