Where are we heading for?
Today, 28-Mar-2022, at 10:10 a.m, the BOJ announced the Fixed-Rate Purchase Operations.
While many countries other than Japan have been tightening monetary policy, the BOJ has been doing the opposite, and now they are trying to suppress the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds, which is about to exceed the average yield on the 500 trillion yen of long-term JGBs held by the BOJ.
The BOJ has been intervening in the market by buying up a bunch of JGBs and ETFs per year, and now that the BOJ is about to go bankrupt, Governor Kuroda is getting desperate. With the rest of the world moving toward higher interest rates, the interest rate gap has naturally widened and the yen has weakened further.
Yen has weakened to its weakest level since December 2015.
Every time I looked at my phone today, the dollar was also appreciating, and at one point the dollar was as high as 125 yen. On a monthly basis, this is calculated to be more inflationary than the Turkish lira.
What is the problem? That is, the BOJ that is supposed to play the role of price stability, has left inflation and prioritized avoiding bankruptcy.
The BOJ's barbaric implementation of QE has resulted in a dizzying 500 trillion yen in long-term JGBs, which it sacrificed for the depreciation of the
yen for fear that rising interest rates would cause a valuation loss on these bonds.
After a decade of QE, the BOJ is now stuck.
That worries would have been unnecessary if inflation had not occurred, but even if demand-pull inflation does not occur domestically,
if interest rates on JGBs rise in the market, the BOJ will instantly go bankrupt and the yen will lose credibility.
As a result, the yen would depreciate sharply and CPI would soar.
However, the BOJ is stuck with a large amount of JGBs. Even if the BOJ were to charge a 1% interest rate on its current account, that alone would generate nearly 6 trillion yen in interest payments.
Inflation would not be controlled at 1% let alone. What is frightening is that the BOJ, the only central bank, would have nothing to do in such a situation. They have no choice. That is why, as they did today, desperately buying up long-term JGBs to keep interest rates down.
Otherwise, the BOJ will become insolvent. If that happens, the BOJ is out of luck.
It is a very ironic story. As I wrote in my previous note, The ever-increasing social security spending could not be stopped, and fiscal financing became
the norm, with only populists who would rather spend lavishly.
The central bank was supposed to be an independent entity, but it has become actively involved in fiscal finance, leading to today's situation.
Who is responsible for this?
I think it is clear; Japanese people.
故郷の母と父に、何か買って送ってあげたいと思います。