What the Japanese people can learn from the BOJ and JGBs.
Three years have already passed since the end of the lost decade, or rather three decades, and Japan has entered a new era “Reiwa”. I was born in 1996 and have never experienced inflation. Japan's lack of growth for 30 years and the current Japanese economy are explained from a variety of perspectives, but I would like to write about what we can learn from the Bank of Japan and Japanese government bonds, and what Japanese people need to know.
By the way, I would like to say that this is in no way an incitement to hyperinflation, and I am neither a left nor a rightist.
First of all, I would like to conclude that Japan has been turning a blind eye to solving its fundamental problems and postponing them in ways that will not hurt anyone in the short term. The problem is not that the Bank of Japan has been issuing large amounts of government bonds and holding on to them, but that it has been evading efforts to increase productivity and using monetary policy as a cover. There are so many things we can learn from this, and even if we brush it off as not my fault, as long as we are Japanese, we cannot escape the effects. This is why it is important to know that the bonds. It is by far the most difficult part of finance to get to know, and most people don't pay attention to it, especially young people who think of it as a world that has nothing to do with them. However, even if we only consider the relationship between us and government bonds, the relationship is far more inextricable than people think, and Japan would not be able to run without them. It is no secret that interest rates on mortgages and loans from banks are determined based on yields in the bond market, and that tax revenue alone is no longer enough to cover the rapid increase in spending, especially on social security, and low growth in Japan's ultra-low birthrate and aging population. We are living in a world driven by bonds, and we are hanging on to them.
To begin with, let me explain a brief history of Japan's government bonds, the first one was issued in 1870. The Bank of Japan was established in 1882, which means that it predates the establishment of the central bank. In fact, the first government bonds were issued in London to raise funds for the construction of the Keihin Railroad, and were issued in pounds sterling. After that, they were issued sporadically to raise funds for the Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War.
Although Takahashi Korekiyo is well known for his activities, he suspended convertibility with gold in 1931. The following year, he changed the way government bonds were underwritten from the Deposit Department of the Ministry of Finance, which manages postal savings, to direct underwriting by the Bank of Japan. In effect, fiscal finance became the norm. Later, after the war, the Fiscal Law was enacted by GHQ's nine principles for economic stability, and fiscal finance was banned. As a result of this law, not a single yen of government bonds was issued between 1947 and 1964. The tide turned in 1965, the year after the Tokyo Olympics were held. As a reaction to the Olympic Games, the government reconsidered its balanced budget policy (the idea that all expenditures should be covered by tax revenues) and issued government bonds for the first time after the war. Incidentally, the amount issued that year was 197.2 billion yen, and the amount issued in 2021 is currently about 236 trillion yen.
If you look at history analogically like this, you can see many interesting things. Japan has always used monetary policy to cover up its declining growth. The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics just ended the other day, and as of September 2021, Japan has issued more than 1000 times the amount of money it issued in 1965, but its growth rate is less than 10% of that of 1965, when it grew by more than 10% in nominal terms. Of course, the reason why the government did not issue bonds from 1947 to 1964 was because of strong economic growth.
The second Abe administration came to power at the end of 2012, and on the strong recommendation of Prime Minister Abe himself, Haruhiko Kuroda took over as governor of the Bank of Japan in March 2013. However, many people must have felt that the Bank of Japan has since become a complete lackey of the government.
As a result, 2% inflation was not achieved, Abe and Kuroda's unconventional easing policy failed, and history repeated itself. It seems that they have not given up yet, but it is obvious that they have failed since they had promised to achieve the goal in two years. Technically speaking, after the introduction of negative interest rates in 2016, interest rate arbitrage and the expansion of dollar-yen basis swaps led to negative yields on even 10-year bonds, and the bond market turned into a dealing and Old Maid. At the end of the day, it will be the Bank of Japan that bears all the risk. If you think about it, it is obvious that the fundamental solution to low growth is to increase productivity. This is the result of turning a blind eye to this issue and trying to grow the economy in a way that does not lose votes.
In particular, the monetary base has increased six-fold in the past ten years. Japan has been engaged in such tremendous monetary easing for such a long period of time, which is rare in the world, and it has failed so badly, but what was the fundamental solution? I think it was structural reform such as tax reforms, relaxation of dismissal regulations and reform of the social security system. All of these measures are designed to cut into vested interests, and if they are implemented, the LDP will lose badly and a lot of blood will be spilled. But growth always comes with pain. It's obvious that this is the right solution, and I'm sure the politicians know it, which leads me to the conclusion that the parliamentary cabinet system may have problems, and the constitution needs to be changed.
However, if Japan had implemented these measures 30 years ago, the economy would have grown even without printing as much money as it does now. If you are familiar with the FTPL equation, you are well aware that monetary policy is like a profit and loss statement, just borrowing future wealth in the present. Therefore, monetary policy is a brake or gas pedal, not an engine. Productivity is the engine. Former Prime Minister Abe and Governor Kuroda have proven this more than adequately over the past decade.
Central banks around the world are now at a crossroads. And among the central banks of the world, the Bank of Japan is standing at the forefront in a sense. Because if interest rates continue to remain at zero, there will be no need for a central bank. There will be no rational reason to monopolize the right to issue currency, and if there is no interest rate, then government bonds and currency will be the same. The reason this happened in Japan first is precisely because Japan was the slowest growing country in the world. It may not have been a coincidence that crypto currencies came out at this time, and it is not surprising that there are those who argue for MMT, although it is out of the question. And to those, the Bank of Japan is the most logically incapable of refuting them in the world.
Finally, let's return to the topic at hand.
What can we learn about the Japanese economy in terms of the BOJ and the JGBs?
If there is a problem, find out what the underlying problem is and don't run away from it. Unless you solve that part of the problem, there will be no long-term growth. I think I've seen many examples of this in case studies of corporate management. Macroscopic issues may require strong leadership, but this applies to many issues at the individual level as well. I have written about what we can learn from the perspective of government bonds, which may not seem familiar to us, but it is. As we live in a society, the issues are probably more complex. However, the common denominator of various other problems can be found in the Bank of Japan and government bonds.
故郷の母と父に、何か買って送ってあげたいと思います。