2024/5/1 投資ネタ

UG
#DLTR upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc ：合理化による収益性の改善、インフレ・窃盗などの被害鈍化
#MMM upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan ：家電のボトムアウトでEPSが再成長可能に
#AMT upgraded at Raymond James, says primed for growth over 3 years ：スプリント離反の影響一巡、インド事業売却、北米のリース加速
#STX upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush ：HDD需要の復活

DG
#NEM downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at National Bank ：バリュエーション
#ADSK downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg：監査委員会が会計慣行を調査することに関連するリスクが解決されるまで投資できない
#SBUX downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair：北米・中国のSSS悪化
#SBUX Deutsche downgrades Starbucks to Hold on reduced visibility
#SWKS downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen ：Q3の見通しが過剰在庫で下振れ、AAPL関連のシェア減少
#LOGI downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan ：マクロが成長の重石/まだ割引が必要

earnings
#MA Earnings Summary: Mastercard delivers mixed Q1 results with Payment Network revenue up 7% - SA：GMV予想届かず/ドル高が重石/
#PFE beats top-line and bottom-line estimates on track to achieve a net cost reduction of at least US$400 million by the end of 2024.
#ADP Surpasses Analyst Revenue and Earnings Estimates in Q3 FY24：HCM需要は強いまま
#CVS cuts FY24 adjusted EPS view and soft guidance, on Q1 reports.：MLRが大幅に悪化
#MAR lifts profit forecast on international travel demand：RevPAR +1.5%(北米)/需要が正常化/
#EL ：北米SSS+1%/アジア+3%・中国改善/EMEA+10%+・旅行需要
#KHC stock drops after profit matches expectations but sales fell a bit shy：volume ▲3.2%/Price +2.7%、ボリューム増の為に割引必要なまま、
#YUM Misses Q1 Sales Targets, Stock Drops
#DD ：家電関連の回復継続/在庫削減も一巡
#GRMN announces first quarter 2024 results：
#NCLH stock falls after revenue came up a bit short, despite record bookings - MW：予約が過去最高
$QCOM Qualcomm perks up as Q2 results, guidance top expectations：AIアンドロイド向けの高価格チップの需要増(中国需要の回復)/AI搭載携帯への買替需要増加期待
$QRVO Apple supplier Qorvo sees its shares tumble on weak guidance：高コストの在庫が捌けるのにまだ時間を要する(在庫自体も大幅増)/9月以降改善見込み/2Qのガイダンス失望/
$DASH DoorDash Stock Tumbles as Profit Remains Elusive：GOVは21%YoY(飲食以外への進出/シェア拡大)/NYなどの規制(賃上規制)でコスト増/レストラン需要減少懸念
$CVNA Carvana 1Q Swings to Profit as Turnaround Continues：GPU改善($2000→$6000)・SG&A削減でマージン回復/在庫は増
$ETSY Etsy shares plunge on decline in gross merchandise sales
$EBAY eBay Shares Sink as Guidance Disappoints the Street
$Z Zillow stock gaps down after issuing below-consensus Q2 guidance：高金利重石で2Q見通し失望/エージェントの支払い方法を変更し、Zillowの主要顧客であるエージェントの手数料収入を削減する可能性有/
$CHRW C.H. Robinson’s stock jumps on quarterly earnings beat
$MGM +1.2% MGM Resorts tops estimates as the Macau recovery continues

個別株
#CCJ | The Senate has passed a bill banning uranium imports from Russia, sending it to the White House.
European Commission opens formal proceedings against #Meta under DSA
#TSLA to expand FSD system into China, will face strong rivals, Reuters says
#SQ Federal prosecutors are examining financial transactions at Block (SQ), owner of Cash App and Square - NBC

マクロ・債券
(米国)
US MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ACTUAL -2.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -2.7%) $MACRO
US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE ACTUAL 192K (FORECAST 180K, PREVIOUS 184K) $MACRO
Job stayers annual pay down to 5.0% from 5.1%
Job changes annual pay down to 9.3%, down from 10.0%
U.S ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (APR) ACTUAL: 49.2VS 50.3 PREVIOUS; EST 50.0
US ISM MFG. PRICES PAID ACTUAL 60.9 (FORECAST 55.4, PREVIOUS 55.8) $MACRO
US ISM MFG. EMPLOYMENT INDEX ACTUAL 48.6 (FORECAST 48.2, PREVIOUS 47.4) $MACRO
U.S JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (MAR) ACTUAL: 8.488M VS 8.756M PREVIOUS; EST 8.680M
*ISM：price paid上昇/新規受注・雇用は縮小でスタグフレ。レイオフの速度な鈍化。需要は回復が始まったばかりだが、見通しは明るい。

(その他)
UK factories slip back into downturn as cost pressures rise, PMI shows

コモディティ
Oil falls for a third day on Middle East ceasefire hopes - Reuters
Copper prices have hit a record high of $10,000 per metric ton due to increased demand and supply shortages from mining regulations, geopolitical tensions, and labor strikes. Speculation suggests prices could reach $15,000 per ton in the future.