2024/7/19 投資ネタ

UG
#ARM Morgan Stanley Upgrades $ARM Holdings to Overweight, Raises PT to $190
-Edge AIで大きなｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
--ｶｽﾀﾑｼﾘｺﾝ/新ﾃﾞｻﾞｲﾝ
--ｽﾏﾎ/自動車/AI PC
#ACN upgrades Accenture to Buy on AI optionality at 400
-AIで業績拡大示せばﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大余地有
-ｸﾗｳﾄﾞ/DX/ｻｲﾊﾞｰｾｷｭﾘﾃｨｰ/AI注力は良い方向性
#KMI upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus

DG
#BAC downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Phillip Securities at 45
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#CTAS downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird at 775
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#CHH #WH downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan at 120
-WH対比ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが割高に
-新ﾎﾃﾙのﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝも減少
#PEP downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank

earnings
#CMA
〇:Q2EPS・ﾛｰﾝ・NII
×:預金・NIM・効率性・NCO
-NII見通し-14%YoY
-無利子預金の減少止まらず
-Direct Expressに選ばれず
#HAL
△:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上
-北米YoY-8%/その他地域は増加
--2025に北米の受注は回復
--天然ガスも2025に回復見込み
-各地域で設備不足
#SLB
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
-海外が堅調
#AXP
〇:Q2EPS/FY24EPSg
×:Q2売上/FY24売上g
-引当はYoYで増加 from 1.2B to 1.3B
#TRV
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上・保険料収入・underlying combined ratio
-自動車・事業中断保険が好調
-自然災害向けの支払いは多い
#ALV
〇:
×:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-Q2 SSS +0.7% vs 4.74%e
-FY24 SSS見通し引下げ
-北米・中国で在庫削減の煽り

個別株
#MSFT experienced a significant service outage that affected users globally, disrupting its cloud computing platforms.
#CRWD Adding to the chaos, many Windows users experienced crashes and blue screens due to a CrowdStrike update.
#GOOG Italy's antitrust authority opens probe into Google over personal data usage

TP関連
#META price target raised to $525 from $500 at Oppenheimer
-TikTok禁止の撤回/中国企業広告の関税/ﾄﾗﾝﾌﾟとの確執は懸念
-ﾃﾞｼﾞﾀﾙ広告市場は堅調
-中国企業の広告需要も強いまま
#CLX #CL #STZ #KMB #PEP #PG #EL #LW #MDLZ #KHC preview by Barc
-ﾏｸﾛ環境/ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ共にQ2決算は警戒
#HLT #H #MAR PT raised by JPM
-見通し引き上げ
--RevPAR成長期待
#FND Citi cuts Floor & Decor target, opens 'negative catalyst watch' at 104
-客足ﾃﾞｰﾀが弱い/ﾘﾌｫｰﾑ関連需要も弱い
#TMUS price target raised to $210 from $184 at Citi
-携帯収益が牽引し、好決算予想
#CVNA price target raised to $155 from $150 at JPMorgan
-ｼｪｱ/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大期待
#PKG price target raised to $195 from $179 at Jefferies
-段ボール価格の上昇を反映
-OCC価格も高止まり
#HOOD price target raised to $25 from $23 at KeyBanc
-新規口座数の伸びが順調
-新商品も魅力的
#TAP price target lowered to $57 from $69 at Piper Sandler
-米小売の弱さ
#RCL price target raised to $200 from $180 at Stifel
-2026までｸﾙｰｽﾞ需要は強いまま
#BX price target raised to $141 from $126 at Barclays
-投資環境に強気
-2Hはfee収益も伸びる見込み
#CTAS price target raised by several firms
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ堅調
-SSSも堅調
#DHI price target raised by several firms
-Q4のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通しが強い
-来年のEPS見通しも強気
-受注は高金利を背景に懸念
#DFS price target raised to $137 from $135 at Barclays
-ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄはｲﾝﾗｲﾝ
#DPZ price target lowered lowered by several firms
-米SSS/EVITDAが予想以下
-2HSSSが予想以下
-新店舗計画未達もﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#NFLX price target raised by several firms
-Q2は良い決算/見通しがmix
--Q2新規加入者数は好調
--Q3以降は伸びが鈍化見込
-ad tierは今後も新規加入者のﾄﾞﾗｲﾊﾞｰ
vs
-地域によっては成長がﾏｲﾅｽになる可能性
#TSM price target raised to NT$1,200 from NT$1,160 at BofA
-FY24-26のEPS見通しを3-5%程度引上げ
--2026までCoWoS/N3/N5の供給不足
#MAN price target lowered to $75 from $84 at JPMorgan
-C-Suiteの採用意欲は低位安定
--欧米の景気鈍化が背景
#MTB price target raised to $195 from $180 at Citi
-手数料好調
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄの恩恵
#ISRG price target raised by several firms
-Q2売上・手術量の増加
-dV5の導入台数が強い
#PPG price target raised to $142 from $140 at UBS
-今後もｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引下げ懸念残る
--自動車OEM生産低下

マクロ・債券
(米国)

(欧州)
GERMAN PPI MOM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.0%)
ECB SURVEY: GROWTH SEEN AT 0.7% IN 2025 VS 0.5% SEEN EARLIER; 2025 OUTLOOK CUT TO 1.3% FROM 1.4%.
ECB SURVEY: INFLATION IS TO AVERAGE 2.4% IN 2024 AND 2.0% IN 2025, BOTH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ECB POLL: EUROZONE FIRMS SEE MODERATE PRICE HIKES & SLOWER WAGE GROWTH. SURVEY.
ECB SURVEY: EURO ZONE FIRMS SEE MODERATE PRICE HIKES AND SLOWER WAGE GROWTH.
ECB'S REHN: THE RISK OF FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED INFLATION REMAINS.
(その他)
JAPANESE CPI OVERALL NATIONWIDE ACTUAL 2.8% (FORECAST 2.9%, PREVIOUS 2.8%)
JAPANESE CORE CPI NATIONWIDE YOY ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.7%, PREVIOUS 2.5%)
UK RETAIL SALES YOY ACTUAL -0.2% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 1.3%)
UK CORE RETAIL SALES MOM ACTUAL -1.5% (FORECAST -0.5%, PREVIOUS 2.9%)
CANADIAN PPI MOM ACTUAL 0.0% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 0.0%)
CANADIAN RETAIL SALES MOM ACTUAL -0.8% (FORECAST -0.6%, PREVIOUS 0.7%)