2024/4/16 投資ネタ

アジア時間
地政学
IRAN IS WILLING TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT AND HAS NO INTENTION OF FURTHER ESCALATING THE SITUATION - CHINESE STATE MEDIA
SAUDI ARABIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS ON CHINA TO PLAY ACTIVE ROLE IN RETURNING NORMAL TRACK TO ESCALATING SITUATION IN MIDDLE EAST: CHINESE STATE MEDIA

中国経済
BEIJING NEW HOME PRICES INCREASE 0.8% YEAR ON YEAR IN MARCH, ACCORDING TO STATS BUREAU (FEBRUARY INCREASE 1.0%)
CHINESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 5.2% (FORECAST 5.2%, PREVIOUS 5.300%) $MACRO
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT YOY ACTUAL 4.5% (FORECAST 6%, PREVIOUS 7.0%) $MACRO
CHINESE GDP QOQ SA ACTUAL 1.6% (FORECAST 1.45%, PREVIOUS 1.0%) $MACRO
*CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 5.3% Y/Y; EST. 4.8%
*CHINA MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. 6%
*CHINA MARCH RETAIL SALES RISE 3.1% Y/Y; EST. 4.8%
*CHINA JAN.-MARCH FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. 4%
CHINA'S Q1 FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT UP 4.5% YEAR ON YEAR, BEATING POLL EXPECTATION OF 4.1%
CHINA'S Q1 AIR PASSENGER NUMBERS SURGE BY 37.7% YEAR ON YEAR, REACHING ALMOST 180 MILLION TRIPS: STATE MEDIA.

米国寄り前のネタ
UG
#AMD /HSBC/Buy/MI300の2024と2025の売上期待はリセットされた。しかし、AMDは十分なサプライキャパを持っているし、ＡＩの売上ガイダンスを超える需要があるとみる。
#TSN /Barc/OW from UW/最近は逆風がきつかったが、困難な時期は終わった。牛肉は厳しく、豚肉もわずかな収益を見通しているが、鶏肉工場の閉鎖で収益性は戻るし、加工食品は安定していると見込む。
#KR /WFC/OW/ファンダメの改善を見込む。また、巨額のバイバックが期待できる。食料品のディスインフレはQ1で終了し、2Hから改善。ボリュームは価格弾力性が戻るのとレストラン需要の減少であがる。
#GS /Argus/Buy：IBDが強いときの当社の強さを改めて証明。株・社債の引き受けの改善が続いており、好調な環境が続く見込み。消費者向けビジネスから撤退し、下振れリスクが提言。コア資産のIBDに注力可能。
DG
#PPC /Barc/EW/売上・EPSが2024/25ともにチキン価格の上昇から強いことを見込む。しかし、現在のバリュエーションは過去平均対比既に高く、さらなるアップサイドの期待は見込めない。

決算
Ericsson reports Q1 EPS SEK 0.77 vs. SEK 0.45 last year ：as expected our customers continued to exercise caution with their investments
UnitedHealth reports Q1 adjusted EPS $6.91, consensus $6.62 ：
Johnson & Johnson revises FY24 adjusted EPS to $10.60-$10.75 from $10.55-$10.75 ：
BNY Mellon reports Q1 adjusted EPS $1.29, consensus $1.19 ：Total revenue of $4.5 billion was up 3% year-over-year, as 8% growth in investment services fees led by strength in Asset Servicing, Issuer Services and Clearance and Collateral Management more than offset revenue headwinds from muted volatility in foreign exchange markets and lower net interest income/資産高の恩恵がFXなどのボラ低下やNIIの減少を補って余りある結果に。
Bank of America reports Q1 adjusted EPS 83c, consensus 77c ：
Morgan Stanley reports Q1 EPS $2.02, consensus $1.66 ；
PNC Financial sees Q2 total revenue stable vs. Q1, consensus $5.32B

個別株
#ARM : BofA has raised the PT for ARM to $150, citing accelerating AI adoption and v9 adoption.
#INTC | Intel to release two AI chips specifically designed for the Chinese market with reduced capabilities to comply with U.S. export controls and sanctions.
"Returning To Petrol": Volkswagen EV Sales Plunge 25% In Europe
International Paper to acquire DS Smith in transaction valued at $9.9B
#TSLA NV9 cheaper EV 'effectively scratched,' Electrek reports :model 2はあきらめて、自動運転に注力
#META Instagram pitches chatbot version of influencers, NY Times reports
#BA rejects whistleblower claim, tests found 'zero' stress evidence, FT says
#AMZN remains best internet idea at JPMorgan into earnings
#MDLZ set to be fined by EU for blocking cross-border sales, FT reports

マクロ・債券
Housing Starts 1.321MM, Exp. 1.485MM
Housing Permits 1.458MM, Exp. 1.510MM
CANADIAN CPI TRIM ACTUAL 3.1% (FORECAST 3.2%, PREVIOUS 3.2%) $MACRO
Big Tech Is Downsizing Workspace in Another Blow to Office Real Estate - WSJ
ECB'S REHN: A JUNE CUT IS POSSIBLE IF INFLATION IS HEADING TOWARD 2%.
ECB’S MAKHLOUF: A 25 BPS ECB CUT IN JUNE IS POSSIBLE IF THE CPI TREND PERSISTS.
ZEW:
Index 42.9 (est 35.5, last 31.7)
Current Situation -79.2 (est -76, last -80.5)
Expectations 43.9 (est -, last 33.5)
Germany wholesale prices starting to rise again. Compared to prev mth, prices rose by 0.2%, driven by commodity prices such as cocoa, coffee & live animals.

CHINA'S FINANCIAL REGULATOR: WE WILL ALLOCATE MORE CREDIT RESOURCES TO SUPPORT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT.
中国若年層の失業率上昇、「高度な注意を要する」－国家統計局副局長

コモディティ
European Natural Gas Prices Rise to Over 3-Month Highs：地政学の影響
Biden unlikely to cut #Iran 's oil lifeline after Israel attack
Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel is unlikely to prompt dramatic sanctions action on Iran's oil exports from the Biden administration due to worries about boosting oil prices and angering top buyer China, said analysts.
Chinese oil production in March came at a ~4.35m b/d, just below the all-time high set in June 2015. And a fresh record high is likely later this year.

地政学
❖ CYBERATTACK REPORTEDLY TARGETS ISRAELI DATA CENTERS
❖ EU AIMS FOR NEW IRAN SANCTIONS OVER ISRAEL STRIKE IN COMING DAYS

寄り付き後以降

US MANUFACTURING OUTPUT MOM ACTUAL 0.5% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.8%) $MACRO
US CAPACITY UTILIZATION ACTUAL 78.4% (FORECAST 78.5%, PREVIOUS 78.3%) $MACRO
パウエルＦＲＢ議長、より長期間の高金利維持を示唆－インフレ根強く
*JEFFERSON: IF INFLATION PERSISTS, HOLD RATES HIGH FOR LONGERRECENT READINGS ON BOTH JOB GAINS AND INFLATION HAVE COME IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
-WSJ'S TIMIRAOS ON FED'S JEFFERSON: HE DOESN'T REFER TO RATE CUTS AS A BASE CASE, AS HE DID ON FEBRUARY 22ND.
FED'S BARKIN: THE CPI DATA HAS NOT “BEEN SUPPORTIVE" OF A SOFT LANDING.

Cleveland Fed keeps raising their estimates for headline inflation for April on back of higher oil and gasoline prices. Headline CPI for April now up to 0.37% mom and should continue to trend higher with gasoline continuing to move up.

BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: THE DOWNTICK IN CORE INFLATION SUGGESTS PRESSURES EASING.
BOE GOV. BAILEY: I SEE STRONG EVIDENCE THAT PROCESS OF DISINFLATION IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH.

$LVMH Q1 2024:"Organic revenue growth came to 3%. LVMH had a good start to the year despite a geopolitical and economic environment that remains uncertain"

United Airlines reports Q1 adjusted EPS (15c), consensus (57c)
J.B. Hunt reports Q1 EPS $1.22, consensus $1.52
：インターモダルのボリュームはフラット。国内のインターモダル需要が弱く、トラックとの競争が激化。客単価が▲8%。