2024/8/13

UG
#DELL Barclays Upgrades to "Equalweight" from Underweight with PT of $97
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙの高さは正当化可能
--AI関連のﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽの多さ
--PC/non-AIｻｰﾊﾞｰの弱さは続く
#HRL upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi at 37
-Q3以降のEPSにｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
-小売のﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞが改善中
-原材料ｺｽﾄも低下
-ﾀｰｷｰ価格もｻﾌﾟﾗｲ減で上昇見込み
#SBUX Piper Sandler upgrades Starbucks to Overweight following CEO news at 103
#SBUX Baird upgrades Starbucks on favorable risk/reward under new CEO
-経営陣への信頼が改善
--内部管理に定評有

DG
#ZI downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Daiwa at 9
#DG #DLTR downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Cleveland Research

earnings
#HD
〇:Q2EPS
×:売上
-SSS -3.3%/北米SSS -3.6%
--May -3.7%, June -0.9%, July -4.9%
--AUR 1H -1.5%/2H -0.5%
-SSSｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引下げ -3% to -4%
-高金利/経済的不透明性でﾘﾌｫｰﾑ需要減
--特にhigh ticketがダメなまま
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通し引下げ
--輸送費減/窃盗減はﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ/人件費は上昇継続
--販促強化の予定は無し

個別株
#GOOG HAS ITS ANNUAL PIXEL HARDWARE EVENT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY AT 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT
#NVDA HUAWEI'S 910C CHIP AIMS TO CHALLENGE NVIDIA IN AI HARDWARE, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ
#SBUX Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan steps down, Brian Niccol to succeed
#GM Cuts China Jobs as It Resets in World’s Biggest Car Market - BBG
#GOOG DoJ Mulls Seeking Google $GOOGL Breakup After Landmark Antitrust Win - Bloomberg

TP関連
#MU sees added risk to near-term Micron estimates
-PC/携帯の在庫増
-DRAM自体の強さは継続
--価格がQ3 +12%, Q4 +6%
#WMT price target raised to $73 from $71 at Stifel
-ｻｰﾍﾞｲ:消費意欲はあるが鈍化中
-ｼｪｱ拡大継続
#TGT price target lowered to $147 from $170 at Stifel
-消費意欲はあるが、鈍化中
-back-to-schoolの消費意欲悪化
--全所得者層で悪化
#DE price target lowered to $360 from $375 at JPMorgan
-Q3以降の見通しをｶｯﾄ
--建設機器が弱い
#SAP price target raised to $251 from $217 at Barclays
-売上成長率の底堅さ、加速のｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大余地
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝも魅力的
#EQIX price target raised to $910 from $880 at Deutsche Bank
-売上/EPS共に成長継続
#DLR price target raised to $168 from $160 at Truist
-Q2決算を反映
#DG price target lowered to $130 from $140 at Loop Capital
-低所得者層の消費は重石のまま
-在庫管理は改善
#MLM price target lowered to $615 from $630 at Loop Capital

マクロ・債券
(米国)
UBS: "Markets remain highly sensitive to any economic data that falls short of expectations, and this could lead to increased volatility as recession fears persist. While this does not necessarily mean that markets are poised to resume their upward movement, the potential for a refreshed risk rally in the medium term remains intact."
US NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX ACTUAL 93.7 (FORECAST 91.5, PREVIOUS 91.50
Index 93.7 (est 91.5, last 91.5)
Business Outlook -7 (last -25)
Sales Expectations -9 (-13)
Job Openings Hard to Fill 38 (37)
Hiring Plans 15 (15)
Quality of Labor 19 (19)
Compensation Plans 18 (22)
Higher Prices 22 (27)
PPI
Headline
M/M: 0.1% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%)
Y/Y: 2.2% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.6%)
Core
M/M: 0.0% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.4%)
Y/Y: 2.4% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 3.0%)
US REDBOOK YOY ACTUAL 4.7% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 5.1%)
FED'S BOSTIC: IF THE ECONOMY EVOLVES AS I EXPECT, THERE WOULD BE RATE CUT BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
"Based on PPI, we now estimate that the core PCE price index rose 14bps in July (vs. 17bps previously)." - Goldman
(欧州)
GERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT ACTUAL 19.2 (FORECAST 34, PREVIOUS 41.8)
Index 19.2 (est 34.0, last 41.8)
Current Situation -77.3 (est -74.5, last -68.9)
Expectations 17.9 (est -, last 43.7)

(その他)
*JAPAN JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.0% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT ACTUAL 2.8% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -1.1%)
AUSTRALIAN NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE ACTUAL 1 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4)
AUSTRALIAN WAGE PRICE INDEX YOY ACTUAL 4.1% (FORECAST 4%, PREVIOUS 4.1%)
UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%, (Est. 4.5%, Prior 4.4%)
UK EMPLOYMENT CHANGE +97K, (Est. +3K, Prior +19K)
AVG. WEEKLY EARNINGS YoY +4.5%, (Est. +4.6%, Prior +5.7%)
AVG. WEEKLY EARNINGS (ex bonus) +5.4%, (Est. +5.4%, Prior +5.7%)
コモ
IEA TRIMS 2025 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 950,000 BPD (PREVIOUS FORECAST: 980,000 BPD).
A PERMANENT GAZA CEASEFIRE COULD DELAY IRAN'S RETALIATION AGAINST ISRAEL FOR KILLING HAMAS' CHIEF - IRANIAN SOURCES
Russian Troop Shortage Is Exposed After Ukraine’s Incursion, Raising Risk of New Draft - BBG
US API CRUDE OIL STOCK CHANGE ACTUAL -5.205M (FORECAST -2M, PREVIOUS 0.18M)