2024/8/8 投資ネタ

UG
#VNO upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital at 40
#VNO upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler at 30
-NY回復・小売りのﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒ・ﾎﾟｰﾄの質の高さにも関わらずshow me storyで重たい
-ﾘｰｽのﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑが回復しており
#FTNT upgraded to Hold from Sell at DZ Bank at 65

#PFE upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Daiwa at 34
-Nurtec/PadcevのQ2売上で見通し引上げ
-2026から主力商品の特許が切れるがｺｽﾄｶｯﾄで打ち返せる
#ARM upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Daiwa at 130
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝはまだ高い
-ﾘｾｯｼｮﾝ懸念はやりすぎ
#COST upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Gordon Haskett at 925
-7月のSSSは客足由来で強い
--他社が伸び悩む中でもSSSが成長

DG
#DIS Seaport Global Downgrades Walt Disney to Neutral from Buy
-ﾊﾟｰｸ/DTCの見通し引下げ
-高所得者はドル高で海外/低所得者は来ない
-中国は弱い
#BMBL downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel at 6.5
#BMBL downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan at 7
#BMBL downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI at 8
#BMBL double downgraded to Underperform at BofA amid 'very limited visibility' at 5.5
#BMBL downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG
#BMBL downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi
-Q2売上・ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽが予想のはるか下
-いつ成長に回帰できるか不明
-Bumble appで新規顧客獲得とﾏﾈﾀｲｽﾞができていない
-Bumbleの差別化の消失の可能性有
#FSLY downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler at 6
-FY24のｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽを再度5%ｶｯﾄ
--大手顧客の需要減
-顧客集中同/ｾｷｭﾘﾃｨﾘｽｸ/経営の信頼の無さが重石
#BP downgraded to Hold on buyback uncertainty at HSBC
-7Bの自社株買いは現状の原油のﾚﾍﾞﾙだと完了しない
-FY25のEBITDAｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽも高い

earnings
#LLY blows past estimates, hikes guidance as Zepbound, Mounjaro sales soar
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:Q2ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽも引上げ
-Mounjaro/Zepboundが牽引
#YETI Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24EPS(raised)
×:Q2在庫
-ｸｰﾗｰ需要が堅調(猛暑の恩恵?)
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
--輸送費/原材料費 vs 販促
-海外が堅調
#QSR
〇:Q2売上・EBITDA
×:Q2EPS・SSS
-ﾊﾞｰｶﾞｰｷﾝｸﾞが予想以下
--いつ回復するかも不透明
-中国は弱い
-2HのSSS +2%見込み
#DDOG Earnings, Revenue Top Wall Street Estimates
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24売上・EPS(raised)
-新規顧客獲得率は鈍化
#HBI
〇:Q2ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
#UAA Losses Mount But Less Than Expected
〇:Q1売上・EPS

#TTD
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ

#EXPE
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA・GBV
-7月に景気鈍化
#CPRI
#ELF
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:

個別株
#INTC Reports indicate that Nvidia and other major US tech firms are considering Intel Foundry Services $INTC for their semiconductor needs due to TSMC's current production capacity shortage.

TP関連
#NVDA Wells says Taiwan data implies weaker than expected Nvidia Q2 Datacenter revenue
-台湾の輸出ﾃﾞｰﾀからすると、ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ向け売上が弱い可能性
#TSLA price target lowered to $224 from $227 at RBC Capital
-規制ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄとｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰｽﾄﾚｰｼﾞの成長
-FSDの値下げの可能性
#CSCO price target raised to $55 from $53 at JPMorgan
-顧客の需要の実質的回復の兆候無し
-ｾｷｭﾘﾃｨの成長の加速もまだ
#MRK price target lowered to $135 from $143 at Berenberg
-中国でのGardasil売上不振
-減速の理由がわかるまでは株価の重石
#DIS price target lowered by several firms
-2025のEPS/FCF見通しで引下げ
--ﾊﾟｰｸの来場者がQ3後半から鈍化
--ｽﾄﾘｰﾐﾝｸﾞ投資も重石
#LYFT price target lowered by several firms
-GBVは予想以下
--投資増にも関わらず
-売上・収益性は予想以上
#SHOP PT mixed
-投資が結実
--顧客獲得/ｼｪｱ獲得/GMVの決済獲得
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
#ZG price target raised by several firms
-super app戦略が奏功
--ｼｪｱ拡大と取引のﾏﾈﾀｲｽﾞ化
-ｴｰｼﾞｪﾝﾄ手数料悪化の可能性も低い
#HOOD price target raised to $19 from $18 at Citi
-Q2好決算
--取引ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ/Gold sweep balanceの増加/ｾｸﾚﾝの増加
#ROK price target lowered by several firms
-決算は弱い/見通しも再度ｶｯﾄ
--需要減/大統領選の不透明感
-ｺｽﾄ増加見込
#RL price target lowered by several firms
-競合他社対比よい決算
--ﾏｸﾛの重石には逆らえず
#RUN price target raised to $20 from $18 at Wells Fargo
-FY25のFCF見通しが予想以上
-2026以降の資本還元が期待できる
#VMC price target lowered to $292 from $297 at Citi
-Q2/FY24 EBITDAをﾐｽ
-ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞﾊﾟﾜｰは強いまま
#CVS price target mixed
-7月にMLR悪化
-2025のMAのbidが不透明

マクロ・債券
(米国)
米富裕層、財布のひも締める－ファミレスでバリューメニュー狙い
JPMorgan says 75% of global carry trades have now been unwound, wiping out YTD returns and cutting into profits since late 2022.
JPMorgan now sees a 35% chance of US recession this year
U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 233K VS 249K PREVIOUS; EST 240K
U.S CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 1875K VS 1877K PREVIOUS; EST 1875K
U.S WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: 0.2% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%
US 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION
BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.31
HIGH YIELD 4.314% VS WI YIELD 4.283%
(欧州)

(その他)
JAPANESE ECONOMY WATCHERS POLL ACTUAL 47.5 (FORECAST 47.5, PREVIOUS 47.0)
国家公務員の月給2.76％引き上げ勧告、32年ぶり高水準－人事院
金利スワップの年内利上げ確立急低下、日銀わずか１週間でハト派転換
超円安巻き戻し、自動車など日本企業に暗雲－想定為替に現実追いつく
豪中銀総裁「必要なら再利上げもためらわず」－６日に政策委で検討