インフレ下の賃上げは所得格差を拡大させるだけ：2024年10月22日（火）
政治家たちの経済オンチは今に始まったことではないが，「失われた30年」の間，金融財政政策の舵取りは「何もしないこと」が良しとされてきた。デフレが続く限り，名目賃金の上昇がなくても実質賃金はそれほど大きく下がらずに済んだからだ。
ところが，いったん物価が上昇し始めると，「デフレ脱却」に成功したと名乗りを挙げる政治家たちは，「物価上昇率を上回る『賃金』上昇率を確保することが重要な経済政策だ」として政治公約の筆頭に臆せずに掲げるようになった。
しかし，よくよく考えてみてほしい。日本は社会主義国家ではなく，資本主義国家である。すべての国民の賃金もしくは所得を「一律」に物価上昇率よりも上げる方策などはない。政府の掛け声に従い，労働分配率を引き上げる余裕のある大企業や収益性の高い一部の企業が賃上げに応じるかもしれない。その結果，国民の賃金の「平均値」計算で賃金上昇を実現することができるかもしれない。
一方で，中堅中小企業の多くは，人件費の上昇により，コスト上昇分をフルに価格転嫁できずに，利潤圧縮もしくは赤字に転じ，競争市場から退出せざるを得なくなるリスクが高まるだろう。つまり，インフレ下の賃上げは所得格差を拡大させる公算が大きいと言えるだろう。だからこそ，経済政策では所得の再分配政策が重要となり，税体系の見直しや，中低所得者に対する所得給付が必要になる。注意すべき点は，低所得者だけでなく，中所得者も「インフレ下の賃上げ」で生活水準が引き下がる可能性が高まるのである。
政治家たちは，このような重要な局面において，周回遅れの経済政策を論じるのではなく，予見可能な範囲で，起きうる先の社会状況を見通して，必要な経済政策を論じてほしい。
Wage Increases During Inflation Only Widen Income Inequality: Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Politicians’ lack of understanding of economics is nothing new, but during the “Lost 30 Years,” the preferred course for financial and fiscal policy was essentially “to do nothing.” As long as deflation continued, even without nominal wage increases, real wages didn’t decrease significantly.
However, once prices began to rise, politicians, eager to claim credit for “escaping deflation,” boldly made it a political pledge that “ensuring wage growth that exceeds the inflation rate is crucial economic policy.”
But let’s consider this carefully. Japan is a capitalist, not a socialist state. There is no method to uniformly raise the wages or incomes of all citizens above the inflation rate. Large corporations with the financial leeway or highly profitable companies might respond to the government’s call by increasing labor distribution and raising wages. This could result in wage increases when calculated as an “average” for the entire population.
On the other hand, many small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle to fully pass on rising labor costs to prices. They could face compressed profits or even fall into deficits, increasing the risk of being forced out of the competitive market. In other words, wage increases during inflation are likely to exacerbate income inequality. This is why income redistribution policies are crucial in economic policy, requiring revisions to the tax system and income support for low- and middle-income earners. What’s important to note is that not only low-income individuals but also middle-income earners are at risk of seeing their standard of living decline due to wage increases during inflation.
At such a critical juncture, politicians should refrain from discussing outdated economic policies. Instead, they should look ahead to the foreseeable future and propose the necessary economic measures based on the potential societal conditions that may arise.