ChatGPTと、フェルミ推定の模擬面接をしてみた。

前回に引き続き、ChatGPTからの回答の引き出し方を学んでいます。

今回は、ChatGPTに、フェルミ推定のお題を解いてもらおうと思います。
日本語よりも英語の方がはるかに精度が高い、とは聞いていますので、
英語でやり取りします。

Q)If in the case interview; without using any research, will you please tell me your steps of calculating the number of Segway in the world?

A)Here are my estimated steps and calculations for estimating the number of Segways in the world:

1. Estimate the global population: Let's assume the global population is 7.9 billion people.

2. Estimate the percentage of the population that would potentially own a Segway: Let's assume that 0.001% of the global population would be interested in owning a Segway.

Calculation: 7.9 billion x 0.001% = 79,000 potential Segway owners

1. Calculate the potential market size: Based on the estimate above, we can assume that there are potentially 79,000 Segway owners in the world.

2. Estimate the average lifespan of a Segway: Let's assume that the average lifespan of a Segway is 5 years.

3. Estimate the number of Segways produced per year: Based on my knowledge of Segway manufacturers and the size of the market, I would estimate that around 10,000 Segways are produced each year.

4. Estimate the number of years Segways have been in production: Let's assume that Segways have been in production for 20 years.

5. Calculate the estimated number of Segways in the world: Using the above assumptions, we can calculate the estimated number of Segways in the world as follows:

Annual Segways produced: 10,000 Years of production: 20 Total Segways produced: 200,000

Number of Segways that reached end of lifespan: 200,000/5 years = 40,000 Estimated number of Segways in the world: 200,000 - 40,000 = 160,000 Segways

Again, please note that these are rough estimates and there are many factors and assumptions that could impact the accuracy of this estimate.

⇒しっかり、回答まで出てきました。実際の面接のように、ロジックが甘いところについて、質問してみます。

Q)So will you please tell me why you thought 0.001% of the global population would be interested in owing a segway?

A)Sure! The estimate of 0.001% of the global population being interested in owning a Segway is based on a few assumptions and factors:

1. Segways are a niche product: While Segways may have some practical uses in certain contexts (such as in some factories or for police patrols), they are generally seen as a luxury or recreational item. As such, I believe that the number of people interested in owning a Segway would be relatively small compared to the global population as a whole.

2. Cost: Segways are relatively expensive compared to other modes of transportation, and may not be affordable for a large portion of the population. This would further limit the number of potential Segway owners.

3. Alternative modes of transportation: There are many other modes of transportation available (such as bicycles, cars, and public transportation), which may be more practical or affordable for most people. This would again limit the number of potential Segway owners.

Based on these factors, I estimated that only a very small percentage of the global population (0.001%) would be interested in owning a Segway. However, it's important to note that this is just an estimate and the actual percentage could vary based on a variety of other factors.

⇒この説明だと、なぜ0,001％なのかは、まだ分かりません。すごく少ないユーザー数だから、とりあえず0.001％と置いた印象です。
しかし、おそらく、的確にこちらが質問すれば、各観点での推定過程を説明してくれそうですね。

視点に関しては、
１ニッチな場面（例アリ）でしか使われない⇒例があるため、メインだと思われるB2B向けの数字イメージが湧きそう
２コストがかかる⇒個人所有の場合は、GDPや年収の観点で数字に置き換えられそう
３代替的な手段⇒こちらは、２とややかぶりますが、一定収入以上でかつ個人であえて持つ人がいかに少なさそうか、が感覚ベースではありますが、数字に置き換えられそう
という点で、なかなか興味深いです。
メインはB2Bなのではないかと思っていますので、実際の面接の場合は、１について深堀していくのでしょう。

Q)If you have no idea relevant to the number of segway produced per year, how would you estimate the number of Segways produced per year?

A)If I have no information on the number of Segways produced per year, I would need to make some assumptions and use some estimation techniques to come up with a rough estimate. Here are some possible steps I could take:

1. Identify the companies that manufacture Segways: Segways are primarily produced by Segway Inc., which is owned by Ninebot Inc. I would need to assume that there are no other significant Segway manufacturers in the market.

2. Estimate the production capacity of the Segway manufacturers: Since I don't have any data on the actual number of Segways produced per year, I could use an estimate of the production capacity of the Segway manufacturers. I could make this estimate based on the size of the companies, the number of employees, and any available information on their manufacturing capabilities.

3. Estimate the utilization rate of the production capacity: Even if the Segway manufacturers have a certain production capacity, it's likely that they are not operating at full capacity all the time. I would need to make an assumption about the utilization rate of the production capacity, based on factors such as market demand, competition, and other industry trends.

4. Estimate the market demand for Segways: To arrive at a rough estimate of the number of Segways produced per year, I would need to estimate the overall market demand for Segways. This could involve looking at factors such as consumer trends, market size, and any available data on sales or shipments of Segways.

5. Calculate the estimated number of Segways produced per year: Based on the estimated production capacity, utilization rate, and market demand, I could arrive at a rough estimate of the number of Segways produced per year by the Segway manufacturers.

It's important to note that this method would only provide a very rough estimate of the number of Segways produced per year, and that the actual number could vary significantly based on a variety of other factors.

⇒こちらの質問の仕方もあり、セグウェイの製造台数の推定過程までは明らかになっていませんが、
推定する上での視点の幅は興味深いです。

つまり、需要側＋供給側のいずれでも検証できるかも、と述べている点です。
くわえて、ナインボット社以外に製造プレイヤーがいないか、まで言及しているのはなるほど、という部分ではあります。

総論として、突っ込んだ質問をすれば、現時点ですら十分に通過しうるレベルの回答を出せるのではないかと思いました。
（上のやり取りでは、各ロジック、置きの数字、計算過程が見えないため通過は難しい。が、おそらく突っ込んだ質問をすればある程度返してくれると想定）

逆に、視点の幅、という点では、現役コンサルタントかつ面接慣れしている（面接のための訓練を自主的に行っている）方以外には、優るのではないかと。

コンサル面接の練習などの副業も、下手したらChatGPTに一掃されるかもしれませんね。
すくなくとも、ChatGPTが適切に回答するるように質問できる方なら、
かなり効果的に面接対策もできるのではないかと。

恐るべし。

アルトマンCEOが来日するようですから、ぜひ講演会に足を運びたいものです。