トランプ氏、米大統領復帰 経済と政策改革の新時代
本文
ドナルド・トランプ氏が米史上2回目となる大統領復帰を果たし、共和党内で永続的かつ変革をもたらす人物としての地位を確立した。新たな支持基盤を構築し、共和党を経済的ポピュリズムと制度不信に突き動かされる多様な集団へと変貌させたトランプ氏の政権移行に対し、米国民の55％が評価している。
就任初日には大量の大統領令に署名し、連邦所有地でのエネルギー開発許可や米国南部国境の閉鎖、連邦職員の職場復帰義務付けなどを実施する予定だ。さらに、国家エネルギー非常事態宣言を行い、連邦政府所有地での新たな石油・ガス開発に道を開く政策転換を図る。
市場ではドル下落や円高が進行し、関税発動見送りの報道を受けて安堵感が広がる一方、アジア市場ではボラティリティの上昇が予想される。企業側の動きとしては、多くのCEOがトランプ氏に接近し、テクノロジー企業のCEOらが就任式に参加予定である。
トランプ政権2期目では、移民制度、税制、貿易、エネルギーなどでの抜本的改革が注目される。特に中国との関係を含む貿易政策の動向、環境政策の変更とEV産業への影響、アジア地域への経済的影響と各国の対応が焦点となるだろう。
トランプ氏の政策がもたらす不確実性は市場に影響を与え続けると予想される一方、関税が抑制された場合はアジア資産全体のリリーフラリーの可能性もある。
English
Donald Trump has achieved a historic second return to the presidency, solidifying his position as a transformative figure within the Republican Party. He has built a new base of support and transformed the Republican Party into a diverse coalition driven by economic populism and institutional distrust. In response to the transition of power, 55% of Americans have expressed approval.
On his first day in office, Trump is expected to sign numerous executive orders, including permits for energy development on federal lands, a border closure along the southern U.S. border, and a mandate for federal employees to return to work. Additionally, he plans to declare a national energy emergency, setting the stage for new oil and gas development on federal government-owned lands.
In the markets, the U.S. dollar has fallen, and the Japanese yen has strengthened. There is a sense of relief after reports that tariff impositions have been postponed. However, volatility in Asian markets is expected to rise. On the corporate front, many CEOs are reaching out to Trump, with tech company executives planning to attend the inauguration.
During his second term, Trump’s major focus will be on comprehensive reforms in immigration policy, tax systems, trade, and energy. Of particular interest will be trade policies, including the relationship with China, environmental policy changes, and their impact on the electric vehicle industry, as well as the economic implications for Asia and how countries in the region respond.
While the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is expected to continue affecting the markets, there could also be a relief rally in Asian assets if tariffs remain subdued.