米労働需要減少も労働市場は安定 堅調な雇用示唆
本文
昨年12月の米求人件数（労働需要）は予想以上に減少し、3カ月ぶりの低水準となり、労働市場の緩やかな減速を示した。求人件数は760万件で、前月の815万6000件（速報値809万8000件）から減少し、エコノミスト予想の中央値800万件を下回った。専門職・ビジネスサービスや医療・社会福祉、金融・保険分野で求人が大幅に減少し、特に専門職・ビジネスサービスでは過去2カ月の急増分が一部相殺された形となった。また、失業者1人当たりの求人件数は6カ月連続で1.1件にとどまり、雇用率は3.4％と10年ぶりの低水準を維持。
今回の統計は求人件数が過去2カ月の増加後に減少へ戻ったことを示し、労働市場の冷え込みがやや過剰に見えるものの、「退職者の増加」やレイオフ率の安定、「景気に敏感な業種での空席増加」が労働市場の安定性を示唆している。ブルームバーグ・エコノミクスのスチュアート・ポール氏は「今後も労働需要は緩やかな減少を続ける」と分析。
7日発表予定の1月雇用統計では雇用の増加ペースが鈍化する一方で、失業率は4.1％で横ばいが予想されている。統計発表後、米国株は堅調を維持し、2年債利回りは低下した。
英語
In December last year, U.S. job openings fell more than expected, hitting a three-month low, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market. The number of job openings dropped to 7.6 million, down from 8.156 million in the previous month (revised from the preliminary figure of 8.098 million), falling below economists’ median forecast of 8 million. Job openings saw significant declines in professional and business services, healthcare and social welfare, and finance and insurance sectors, with professional and business services showing a partial correction after a surge in the past two months.
The number of job openings per unemployed person remained at 1.1 for the sixth consecutive month. The hiring rate stayed at 3.4%, maintaining a 10-year low, while the layoff rate also remained unchanged at historically low levels. Meanwhile, the voluntary resignation rate stood at 2%, indicating that confidence in finding a new job is weaker than a few years ago.
The latest data shows that job openings returned to a declining trend after a significant increase in the past two months. Although the pace of the labor market’s cooling appears somewhat exaggerated, the rise in voluntary resignations, stable layoff rates, and increased vacancies in economically sensitive industries suggest labor market stability. Bloomberg Economics’ Stuart Paul noted that "labor demand is expected to continue its gradual decline over the coming months." The January employment report, scheduled for release on the 7th, is expected to show a slowdown in the pace of job growth, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%.
Following the release of the data, U.S. stocks remained firm, and the two-year Treasury yield declined.