「米インフレ鈍化で利下げ期待高まる 金融市場好感」
本文
昨年12月の米消費者物価指数（CPI）の発表を受け、米国のインフレ鈍化が明確化し、金利引き下げの期待が高まった。この動きは、金融市場における安定をもたらしつつ、連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の金融政策に新たな選択肢を提供している。
12月のコアCPIは前月比0.2%上昇と予想を下回り、前年同月比では3.2%の上昇にとどまった。この低下傾向は、宿泊費や医療サービス費の伸び鈍化、家賃の緩やかな上昇が主要な要因となっている。また、食品とエネルギーを除く財の価格が抑制され、中古車価格を除くとさらに下落したことが寄与している。これにより、インフレ圧力が減退しつつあると判断された。
市場では、FRBが近い将来の利下げを検討する可能性が高まった。特に、コアCPIが安定する中で雇用の伸びが鈍化すれば、3月の利下げが現実味を帯びると見られている。この状況を受け、国債利回りは低下し、株式市場が上昇、ドル安が進むなど市場の反応も迅速だった。
FRBは引き続き、インフレ指標や賃金動向を注視し、慎重な金利調整を模索していく構えだ。
English
Following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December last year, it became evident that inflation in the U.S. was slowing, raising expectations for interest rate cuts. This development has contributed to greater stability in financial markets while providing the Federal Reserve (FRB) with new options for monetary policy.
The core CPI for December rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below expectations, and increased by only 3.2% year-on-year. This downward trend was primarily attributed to slower growth in lodging costs and medical services, as well as a moderate rise in rents. Additionally, prices for goods excluding food and energy were subdued, and excluding used car prices, they declined further, contributing to the assessment that inflationary pressures are easing.
In the market, there is growing speculation that the FRB may consider a rate cut in the near future. If core CPI stabilizes while employment growth slows, a rate cut as early as March is seen as a realistic possibility. In response to this situation, U.S. Treasury yields have declined, stock markets have risen, and the dollar has weakened, demonstrating swift market reactions.
The FRB remains committed to closely monitoring inflation indicators and wage trends as it carefully considers adjustments to interest rates.