路線価29都道府県で上昇 気ままなリライト156
A positive impact on land values in primarily urban areas, driven by infrastructure improvements, increased tourism, and robust property investment, has been reflected in the Rosenka values as of January 1, 2024, published annually on July 1 by the National Tax Agency. The release of Rosenka highlighted investors' expectations of future growth despite the Bank of Japan’s upward trend in long-term interest rates. Investors are anticipating that the potential returns from property investments will outweigh the costs associated with higher interest rates.
The Rosenka value is determined for land along major roads and reflects the average value of land per square meter in a given area. Primarily used to calculate inheritance and gift taxes, Rosenka values are generally lower than market prices, typically estimated to be about 80% of the market value. Each year's release provides an updated snapshot of land prices across Japan, indicating broader trends in the real estate market and economic conditions in the country.
Higher demand for real estate has driven up land prices as a general trend. The national average Rosenka value increased by 2.3% year-on-year, surpassing the 1.6% increase in 2020 and marking a record high since 2010. The number of prefectures experiencing a hike in Rosenka value reached 29, up from 25 in the previous year, while 16 prefectures saw a decline in Rosenka value. Notable among the prefectures with high average growth were Tokyo, Osaka, Okinawa, Fukuoka, and Kumamoto.
In major cities like Tokyo and Osaka, the demand for real estate has remained high due to population density and a limited supply of new housing and office buildings. According to Miki Shoji, a company specializing in office building brokerage, the vacancy rates in five central wards of Tokyo improved steadily from the 6% range between 2021 and 2023 to 5.48% in May 2024, reflecting an increase in demand for office space. Similarly, the growing demand for condos in the Tokyo metropolitan area raised the average unit price of new condos by 9.5% year-on-year in fiscal 2023, reaching 75.66 million yen. This price, though lower than the average for condos in Tokyo's 23 wards, which surpasses 100 million yen, still indicates an upward trend in the real estate market.
In Fukuoka Prefecture, changes in zoning laws and land use regulations that allow for higher floor-space ratios and taller buildings have increased land values due to the potential for more profitable development. Thanks to the deregulation benefits driven by the city’s redevelopment planning, the Rosenka value in the streets surrounding Fukuoka PARCO, an entertainment complex, recorded the highest in the prefecture, which experienced an average increase in Rosenka value of 5.8%, ranking top nationwide. The city-led development projects are enhancing the attractiveness of previously undervalued or underdeveloped areas, contributing to higher Rosenka values across the region.
The recent and ongoing establishment of semiconductor factories in Kumamoto Prefecture has significantly increased land values in the affected areas. Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry, has completed its first factory in the prefecture. Plans are underway to build a second factory to produce advanced semiconductors, supported by subsidies totaling more than 3 trillion yen from the Japanese government.
In Okinawa Prefecture, increased tourism has boosted demand for rental properties, both residential and commercial, making land more valuable as it becomes a scarce and desirable resource. This higher demand has driven up land prices, which is reflected in rising Rosenka values across the prefecture. The influx of international tourists has acted as a tailwind for its tourism-centered economy. The number of visitors to Japan in 2023 recovered to 80% of pre-plandemic levels. Most recently, from March to May 2024, the number of visitors surpassed 3 million each month for three consecutive months. On Miyako Island, in particular, the Rosenka value has soared due to a series of new development projects for resort hotels.
Expectations of future economic growth is keeping property investment robust despite the Bank of Japan’s shift from zero interest rates to increasing rates. Investors are anticipating long-term capital appreciation, especially in areas undergoing development or improvement. The potential for steady rental income is making property investments attractive, even with higher borrowing costs. This is particularly relevant in high-demand rental markets. Even with rising interest rates, they remain relatively low in a historical context, keeping borrowing costs manageable for investors. If interest rate hikes are gradual, investors can adapt their strategies over time without a sudden impact on their investment activities.