更なる景気回復、国内需要持ち直しが鍵気ままなリライト８２
The Japanese economic cycle has transitioned from a downturn phase to an upturn phase, although it has not exhibited sufficient resilience to rebound back to the pre-pandemic economic levels. According to th economic indicators released by the Cabinet Office in May, a majority pointed towards a positive trend with an increase in consumer confidence in many households. The circulation of money in businesses fell far short of its peak, reflecting a discrepancy in the real GDP between 550 trillion yen in fiscal 2019 and 547 trillion yen in fiscal 2022.
The vigor of the Japanese economy has been steadily reinvigorated, marking its first upturn in the past three years and three months since February 2020. This upward revision from a phase of heightened recovery expectations in April was a milestone not seen since July 2022. The uptick was attributed to eleven key economic indicators reflecting the current economic state, including consumer spending, household budgets, exports, and production. According to a survey on household economic sentiment, the introduction of pandemic-related stimulus measures worth 100 trillion yen spurred consumer spending, leading to a rise for three consecutive months up to April. The semiconductor supply chain, which faced a disruption during the pandemic, regained stability, bolstering production. A weakening yen enhanced the export competitiveness of the Japanese manufacturing industry, particularly like automobiles, thus increasing business profits. Also, the weaker yen stoked the spending enthusiasm of international tourists, boosting tourism across the country.
While it remains unclear whether the Japanese vigor could keep propelling the economy towards the peak phase in the face of nebulous global economic conditions, stimulating domestic demand would be a linchpin for maintaining an upward trajectory. With the revival of consumer spending as a tailwind, the probability of small and medium-sized companies improving their profitability is high. That could foster resilience among both consumers and businesses, even when confronted with increasing costs associated with shifting global economic climates. The comparison between a moderate average wage growth of 3.67 % and an escalating April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) underscores the importance of stimulating domestic demand, especially in small and medium-sized companies. Such stimulus could empower businesses to raise wages, providing employees with additional disposable income and encouraging healthier, more balanced personal finances.
Triggered by mismanaged risks and poor financial governance, the recent financial crises in the US and China have cast a long shadow over the global economic landscape. Major U.S. banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, found themselves saddled with debts following the burst of a credit bubble. The bubble was formed during a decade-long period of zero-interest rates, initiated after the 2008 Lehman Shock, and later interrupted by a rate increase intended to control inflation. The subsequent rise in interest rates made many loans unpayable, causing a surge in debt defaults, especially among credit card users. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May ) indicated a diminished prospect for enhancement in the US manufacturing and service sectors' economic well-being. Similarly, the Chinese Communist Party is grappling with the repercussions of its own financial implosion, sparked by the drop in its real estate prices.