2024年度上半期の経常収支、「対外純資産」で黒字拡大 気ままなリライト175
The first-half report of Japan’s current account for fiscal 2024 has highlighted limited domestic growth and an overreliance on external economies—challenges rooted in Japan’s economic model that prioritizes the reliance on foreign investments. Although multinational corporations have thrived as key economic drivers, their success has yielded only a limited trickle-down effect, leaving small and medium-sized enterprises, which form the backbone of the domestic economy, sluggish.
The Ministry of Finance recently reported that Japan's current account, which tracks the flow of goods, services, and income between Japan and the rest of the world, posted a surplus of 15.8248 trillion yen between April and September. This represented a 12.3% increase from the same period last year, setting a record high for a half-year period. The current account consists of three main components: the Primary Income Balance, the Trade Balance and the Services Balance.
According to the report, the current account surplus was largely driven by the Primary Income Balance, which reflects returns on Japan's extensive foreign assets. These include dividends from Japanese ownership stakes in overseas companies, interest from foreign bonds, and profits from overseas subsidiaries or direct investments abroad. Backed by Japan’s position as one of the world’s largest net creditors, Japan’s foreign investments continued to generate consistent returns. In the first half of fiscal 2024, the Primary Income Balance surplus rose by 13.3% to 22.1229 trillion yen, driven by higher overseas interest rates and a weaker yen, which boosted bond interest income and dividends from overseas subsidiaries. During this period, the yen's average exchange rate was 152.51 yen per dollar, an 8.2% depreciation compared with the same period last year, further amplifying yen-denominated returns.
The Primary Income Balance surplus, which largely benefited multinational corporations, offset deficits in both the Trade Balance and the Services Balance, which had a broader impact on domestic industries. The Trade Balance—calculated by subtracting import value from export value—recorded a deficit of 2.4148 trillion yen, widening from the previous year. Exports rose by 5.0% to 52.2222 trillion yen, while imports grew at a faster pace of 7.1%, reaching 54.6369 trillion yen. This rise in imports outpaced export growth, driven by higher purchases of computers, pharmaceuticals, and other goods. Additionally, increased import costs eroded the gains from export growth, reflecting Japan’s dependency on energy imports such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
Meanwhile, the Services Balance, which covers areas such as transportation, tourism and intellectual property, posted a deficit of 1.9748 trillion yen. Within this sector, the digital-related balance, reflecting transactions such as online advertisements and software license payments, recorded a deficit of 3.7160 trillion yen. However, the travel balance achieved a record surplus of 3.0992 trillion yen, fueled by a surge in visiting tourists. This influx of foreign visitors helped narrow the overall services deficit, even as it underscored a growing disparity: while tourism has become a bright spot for Japan's services sector, it relies heavily on external demand, leaving the domestic economy dependent on overseas spending.
This reliance on external demand within the Services Balance mirrors the broader structure of Japan’s current account, where income earned overseas consistently compensates for domestic deficits. As a net creditor nation, Japan’s economic model serves as a buffer against domestic economic volatility. However, this heavy dependence on external economies reveals a growing disconnect between international profits and domestic economic growth. Some critics suggest that shifting from export-driven model to an investment-oriented economic model is better suited for an aging nation like Japan, leveraging its extensive foreign assets to stabilize its overall balance of payments while fostering long-term resilience. Others wonder whether the country’s dependence on international markets can truly enhance broad-based economic vitality. They argue that while the Primary Income Balance remains the key driver of the current account surplus, the gains are largely concentrated in multinational corporations. These profits, though significant, often fail to translate into tangible benefits for Japan’s broader domestic economy. Persistent sluggish wage growth curbs consumer spending, limiting the economy’s momentum.
Japan’s economic model is faced with persistent challenges in converting its primary income surplus into widespread domestic prosperity. To ensure this wealth— built over decades of trade surpluses and global investments—drives inclusive economic growth and strengthens domestic competitiveness in trade and services, comprehensive structural reforms and targeted tax policies are needed to channel the gains of globalization back into the domestic economy. Without such measures, the benefits of this model risk remaining concentrated within a small number of globally dominant corporations in the manufacturing and financial sectors. These large corporations, wielding considerable political and economic influence, often retain profits as reserves or reinvest them in overseas markets. This behavior is further incentivized by tax and regulatory frameworks that disproportionately favor large exporters and foreign investors, leaving the domestic economy’s backbone—smaller businesses and local industries—underfunded and less dynamic.