気ままなリライト３７

消費届かぬ「コロナ前」　物価高重荷、実質賃金減少続く（写真=共同）

The pace of household consumption has been losing steam, remaining below the pre-pandemic levels. A tailwind from economic activities unshackled from the yoke of the pandemic has been rolled back by the deep-seated recession, along with a widespread impact rising energy prices have on consumer goods. Downside pressures are making many consumers save more, buy less without a pay raise to help inflate consumption.

Household consumption growth has not reached the pre-pandemic levels. According to a survey of August 2022 on households with more than two persons released on Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, prices-adjusted consumption reduced after seasonal adjustment by 1.7 % in August month-on-month, for the second month straight. A 5.1 % increase in consumption year-on-year was considered as a backlash from the straightjacketed situation in August 2021 when travel-related consumption was crippled by self-restraint under the state of emergency. According to the Consumption Trend Index, measured based on the 2020’s number as 100, 103.6 in August 2022 showed consumption didn’t bounce back to 2019 levels as the annual average in 2019 was 106.4. The index number went down by 0.6 % in August, month-on-month, for two months in a row.

Rising prices in stark contrast with a decline in the real value of income paid to workers have been putting downward pressure on household consumption. An increase in consumer prices in August was the highest for the first time in the past 30 years. The price hike in food and energy is creating a chain reaction of the rising prices of durable items. According to the August monthly labor survey by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Labor, income per person decreased by 1.7 % year-on-year on a real value basis, went down for five months in a row after April, since when the inflation rate of consumer prices have remained elevated around 3 %.

The consumer confidence index indicating consumer sentiment has showed that a decrease in disposable income is spoiling a shopping appetite, avoiding taking on household debt. The consumer confidence index in September was 30.8, down by 1.7 % from August. When it came to decision about whether they bought a durable item or not, the CCI was 23.2, hitting a record low since 2004. When the income consumers earn is shrinking relative to rising prices, consumers with reduced purchasing power tend to avoid risk-taking. Decision-making is likely to be postponed when they want to buy a durable item on a tight budget squeezed by the rising prices of daily necessities. Consumes’ unwillingness to buy what they want is more likely to lead to a stalling economy, contracting the national output.