無党派層、与野党伯仲の鍵を握る 気ままなリライト145
When the ruling party's popularity has waned and the opposition’s voice has grown stronger, non-partisan votes are more likely to make a big difference in the outcome of the next House of Representatives election. A survey on voters’ political opinions and preferences, conducted over three days from May 24 to May 26 by Nikkei Newspapers and TV Tokyo, revealed that a large majority of respondents desired either a regime change or a balance of power between the ruling party and the opposition. Non-partisan voters, in particular, can become decisive swing voters if they increase their turnout in the next election.
The recent survey on party preferences for the upcoming election has highlighted a narrowing gap in popularity between the ruling party and the opposition due to growing frustration with the ruling party’s policies and perceived complacency. 24% of respondents indicated support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), marking a 4% decline compared with the previous survey conducted in April. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) was favored by 16% of respondents, showing just a 2% reduction from the previous survey. Nippon Ishin no Kai (the Japan Innovation Party) ranked third with 13 % of respondents’ preferences. Nearly one third of respondents were undecided or did not respond.
Party preferences across different age brackets revealed fierce competition between the ruling LDP and the CDP. Respondents aged 39 or younger showed a preference for the LDP over the CDP, with 30 % favoring the LDP and 10 % the CDP. In contrast, Respondents in their sixties favored the CDP more than the LDP, with 24 % supporting for the CDP and 22 % for the LDP. Among respondents aged 70 or older, the two parties were almost equally matched, with 26 % supporting for the LDP and 25 % for the CDP.
Regional disparity in party preferences showed a stark contrast between the Tokyo region and the Kansai region. The respondents from the Tokyo Metropolitan area, including Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa prefectures, favored the LDP over the opposition. Support for the LDP stood at 23 %, followed by the CDP at 14 % and Nippon Ishin No Kai at 12 %. Conversely, the respondents from the Kansai region, including Osaka, Kyoto, Nara and Hyogo prefectures, placed the CDP at the top with 28 %, followed by the LDP at 22 %.
The party preferences of non-partisan voters, who accounted for nearly 33% of the total surveyed electorate, tended to support opposition parties more than the ruling party. Although 39% of non-partisan respondents remained undecided about the particular party they vote, only 7% favored the LDP. Both the CDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai garnered 10% support each from those non-partisan voters.
The survey highlighted respondents' desire for a more competitive and balanced political environment. Respondents were asked to choose their preferred political vision for the next election from three options: a regime change, maintaining the coalition government between the LDP and Komeito, or a balanced distribution of seats between the ruling party and the opposition. Only 19% of respondents supported the continued dominance of the current government, the same percentage as in April. In contrast, 27% favored a regime change, while 41% preferred a balanced distribution of political power, with a stronger opposition capable of holding the ruling party accountable and scrutinizing policies that often do not serve the public interest.
The realization of most electorates' political expectations depends on a high non-partisan voter turnout, as the potential to tip the balance in closely contested elections. Their absence perpetuates the status quo, leaving entrenched power structures untouched and allowing the ruling party to benefit from the lack of electoral challenge, even amid widespread dissatisfaction with current and upcoming policies such as the fixed income tax reduction and the amendments to the Political Funds Control Act. If opposition parties enhance their candidate appeal with policies addressing controversial agendas, like the emergency clause specifying the extension of Diet members' terms in the event of an armed attack on Japan or a major disaster, they could attract non-partisan voters. If those policies resonate with non-partisan voters by addressing their concerns and informing their decisions, those voters may feel less disillusioned or apathetic and be more motivated to participate in the election. Their votes could then shift the balance of power between the ruling party and opposition parties.
この記事が気に入ったらサポートをしてみませんか？