CIA Chief Says China Has Doubts About Its Ability to Invade Taiwan, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26, 2023.
By Dustin Volz
Russia’s struggles in Ukraine may be causing Beijing to have more trepidation
Russia’s struggles to seize and keep territory in Ukraine over the past year has likely fueled doubts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping that China’s military could successfully invade Taiwan later this decade, Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said.
“I think our judgment at least is that (Chinese) President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion,” Mr. Burns said Sunday on CBS. “As they’ve looked at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, that’s probably reinforced some of those doubts.”
Mr. Burns said that the U.S. continued to take the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seriously, adding that the risks of a conflict would likely grow further into the decade and beyond. U.S. intelligence and defense officials believe Mr. Xi wants to be ready to do so by 2027, if not sooner, but Mr. Burns said that goal isn’t set in stone.
“President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” he said.
Mr. Burns said that U.S. and European assistance for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion could also be factoring into China’s calculus about an invasion of Taiwan by demonstrating the West’s collective resolve.
Taiwan is just one flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, which plummeted anew this month after a suspected Chinese spy balloon traversed North America for more than a week before being shot down by the Air Force. The U.S. has also accused China of considering providing lethal aid to Russia.
The U.S. is markedly increasing the number of troops deployed to Taiwan, more than quadrupling the current number to bolster a training program for the island’s military amid a rising threat from China, the Journal reported. The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials.
Taiwan is a long-running flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. After then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) visited the island last summer, becoming the highest-level U.S. political leader to travel there in 25 years, China sent warplanes and warships and fired missiles around the island in exercises meant to register protest and display capabilities it might potentially use to stage a temporary blockade.
Beijing regards Taiwan as a part of China and has vowed to take control of the island, by force if necessary, while Washington is committed under U.S. law to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defenses.