コロナ禍について思うこと

There are more and more Covid 19 cases in Japan. In many countries, every central bank supply money to the market. (We call it QE.) Therefore risk assets price are increasing gradually. Stock market price is higher and higher. Dow, S&P, nikkei, and so on. Not only stocks but also bonds are getting higher. However, the actual economic situation not recovered yet. It is weird.

People don't feel good for our future but market price doesn't not reflect it. There are much money and interest rate is historically low. Investors need to invest in risk assets rather than they hold money as cash.

Generally speaking, interest rate is related
to stock price but it isn't for now. We call interest rate thermometer of the economy, but we can't.

It is getting complex.. The more money central bank supply, the higher market price is. However, some people call the situation "bubble". If the actual economic situation will be worse, people cash the risk assets and market price will plunge.

Additionally, these days many governments have more and more debts. It makes the country credits worse.

Many countries try to deal with the Covid problem, but a mutate virus was found. We don't know the new virus risk. The power of infection and mortality we don't know.

Japanese government decided to ban entering from foreign countries but Japanese mind set is more optimistic
than foreigners. Many people go out as usual even for now. In fact, we take care of wearing face masks and washing our hands. But we tend to think that we can't catch the terrible virus by ourselves. Fortunately, there are relatively less cases than foreign countries (I don't know why).

I think it's time to change our mind set..