Diary 2/19 健康診断やってみよう、欧州情勢変わらずユーロ売り、米3連休前にリスクアセットも地合い悪い

I got medical check named “n-nose”. It is easy health check kit. If you use it, you can check whether there would be cancer cell in your body. I’m so young that I thought I didn’t need the check. However, someone says the health check when you are young is very important because the more early you find something in your body, the easier the body cure. I think the health body is the most important asset for me, so I‘d like to maintain my body healthy. 

EUR was sold because the fear of geopolitical tension between Ukraine and NATO was still watched by investors. Russia said they keep training of troops.  ECB also implied that they will raise interest rate in 2022, but the fear of geopolitical thread was stronger. In addition to the geopolitical thread, the U.S. will be holiday next Monday. Therefore investor may have adjusted their position. Stock indexes also dropped and haven assets like treasury got higher pressure on Friday. Yields on 10-year treasury hiked to 1.93%.

In terms of fiscal policy, Federal Reserve officials pushed back against the prospect that they would begin raising interest rates by 50bps next month FOMC. Many economic data like Consumer price index showed  the U.S. economic rebound and inflation pressure is strong. Some FED officials they need to raise interest rate rapidly but many officials seem to push it back. The  future market expectation for hiking interest rate of 50bps is getting lower. The probability was about 50% few weeks ago, but it is nearly 20% now.